Pregame Analysis: Florida Gators (4-3, 2-2) v. Georgia Bulldogs (6-1, 4-1)

The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will be a tough one for the Gators and their young quarterback to have a good time.

By Loren Meadows, GatorBaitMedia.com, Football Analyst

Albert The Alligator (Chris Spears photo)

Georgia Offense

Key Players-#15 QB Carson Beck (6-4, 220, Sr.), #1 RB Trevor Etienne (5-9, 205, Jr.) #3 RB Nate Frazier (5-10, 210 Fr.), #11 WR Arian Smith (6-0, 185, Sr.), #6 WR Dominic Lovett (5-10, 187, Sr.), #86 WR Dillon Bell (6-1, 210, Jr.), #7 TE Lawson Luckie (6-4, 240, So.) #69 OL Tate Ratledge (6-6, 320, Sr.)

Matchups To Watch: Trevor Etienne v. Florida Linebackers, Beck v. Armstrong and Roberts

The personnel that Georgia is able to put on the field reads like a who’s who of former five star recruits who have all enjoyed success early and often in their careers. Carson Beck was an early Heisman candidate and leads one of the nation’s top offenses. Beck is long with a compact release and despite early struggles is still thought to be one of the nation’s top QB’s when he is at the top of his game. Beck has been hot and cold in games indicated by his less than 2 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio (15 TD, 8 int). Despite his struggles, which often happen early in games, Beck has mastered the ability to right the ship and get the Georgia offense going. 

A familiar if not unpopular face leads the Georgia rushing attack in former Gator Trevor Etienne. The controversial transfer has found a home in the Georgia backfield and leads Georgia in every rushing category this season. Thought by many to be a transcendent back in line with Gator greats Etienne broke the hearts of many with is unexpected decision to leave Gainesville. Now in Athens Etienne can also affect the game as a pass catcher with 20 catches on the season and providing a safety valve for Beck on key third downs. Beck’s main targets are a quartet of able bodied fast and physical receivers. Arian Smith, Dominic Lovett, and Dillon Bell all average more than ten yards per catch and have become the focal point of an improving Georgia passing attack. Smith is more adept on the outside and is a solid route runner. Lovett does most of his damage in the slot and with 42 collegiate games under his belt is no stranger to big boy football. Bell is the biggest of the trio and along with 26 receptions will carry the ball on jet sweeps and other gadget plays. Lawson Luckie takes over at tight end for former Georgia and current Las Vegas Raider Brock Bowers. In his first year as a starter Lawson has 12 catches for 162 yards and three touchdowns. The Georgia offensive line could receive a boost as Preseason All-American guard Tate Ratledge could make his return after a four week absence. Listed as probable for The Cocktail Party his availability could help a Georgia rushing attack ranked 14th in the SEC. 

The Florida defense has been playing better the last few weeks of this season. So well that the Gators could be on a four game winning streak going in to this contest. Word is that the defense went through a major simplification at the request of the players themselves. While many may question the process, the ability to listen to the combatants themselves is admirable in a coaching staff and the results speak for themselves. Georgia however is a different animal and with a future first rounder at quarterback and one of the best offensive lines in the country, this will be the best the Gators have faced this season. Georgia creates mismatches with formations and motions that gave the Gators fits against other opponents this season and the Gators have yet to play well against a solid passer as well. Etienne can be a nightmare in the open field but struggled during his time in Gainesville to be a consistent pass blocker. Look for Austin Armstrong and Ron Roberts to try to get to third down and find out if Etienne has improved. It is tough to believe that Shemar James and others won’t be looking forward to meeting their former teammate in the backfield. The versatility of edge rusher George Gumbs to rush and drop into coverage could be key in disguising fronts and coverages and possibly force Beck into mistakes early. Unfortunately the Gators will be without two of its top three corners as Ja’Keem Jackson and Jason Marshall Jr. are out for this week. This leaves Devin Moore, Dijon Johnson and Cormani McClain to handle the experienced Georgia receivers. The key to all of it could be the Gator defensive line that has been improved lately. Can they stop the run and make the Georgia offense one dimensional?

Georgia Defense

Key Players-#13 DL Mykel Williams (6-5, 265, Jr.) #24 S Malaki Starks (6-1, 205, Jr.) #17 DB Dan Jackson (6-1, 195, R-Sr.) #11 LB Jalon Walker (6-2, 245, Jr.), #78 Nazir Stackhouse (6-3, 320, Sr.) #3 LB CJ Allen (6-1, 235, So.), #98 DL Tyrien Dawkins-Ingram (6-5, 280, R-Jr.) #6 DB Daylen Everette (6-1, 190, Jr.)

Matchups To Watch:  DJ Lagway v. Kirby (Smart), Mykel Williams v. Florida Tackles, Dike and Badger v. Georgia Secondary

The depth and talent are plentiful with this group. The have the best defensive line in the SEC if not the country and the emergence of Mykell Williams as one of the nation’s top edge rushers has given the group even more punch. The group is big, fast, and disciplined. A great combination for a defense but bad news for the opponent. Nazir Stackhouse anchors a group that is giving up just 107 yards per game rushing and averaging almost seven tackles for loss. The defense has been without defensive mainstays Smael Mondon and Warren Brinson most of the season but Tyrien Dawkins-Ingram has emerged with three sacks and eight tackles for loss. The linebackers remain solid despite Mondon’s absence. Jalon Walker has 5.5 sacks and 4.5 tackles for loss and continues to improve. Linebacker CJ Allen is also playing well in his first season as a starter, and had six tackles in the Georgia win over Texas. 

The secondary is full of playmakers and it begins and ends with Malaki Starks. Essentially a starter for Georgia since his first day on campus Starks has been one of the nation’s best for three seasons. He is on every major award list outside of the Heisman Trophy and leads Georgia in both tackles and interceptions. Dan Jackson is a head hunter on the back end and is a nice complement to the star power of Starks. Cornerback Daylen Everette is one of the SEC’s top corners and has over 20 starts in his career. He had a forced fumble, fumble recovery, and an interception in the win against Texas. 

While the Kentucky defense was the appetizer, Georgia is the main course. This will be best defense the Gators have faced all season despite what the numbers may indicate. While some defenses may be better with the first offering it’s the side dishes that make the Georgia crew top notch. The defensive line is six to seven deep, linebackers four to five players deep, and the secondary can throw eight capable bodies at any offense. The individual matchups will be key here. Tackle Austin Barber will be in his hometown of Jacksonville facing the nation’s best in Williams. Center Jake Slaughter will be looking to throw down with Dawkins-Ingram and Stackhouse.

The Gator running backs will have a hefty task when it comes to finding running room against Walker and Allen. Can Chimere Dike and Elijah Badger continue to make big plays against Starks and Everette and the depth of the Georgia secondary? The main event will be freshman DJ Lagway in his first Cocktail Party against Kirby Smart has made life hard on more seasoned quarterbacks and Lagway will certainly have to adjust to pre and post snap looks he has certainly never seen before. Georgia will look to confuse Lagway early and allow the talent of the defense to take over. Billy Napier and his staff will be challenged to find a gameplan that can utilize the feet of his quarterback while consistently staying on schedule with the offensive gameplan.

Lagway and company will be tested on Saturday (Chris Spears photo)

The Skinny: This is the 102nd meeting between the two teams and the 92nd time the game will be played on the banks of the St. Johns River. While Georgia has dominated lately the struggles of Georgia offensively have many believing that if the ball bounces a certain way Florida could spring an upset. The Gators looked impressive in dominating a team that Georgia beat by one point in Kentucky but I encourage those that may be using comparative analysis to beware, Football doesn’t work that way. Styles make fights, and Georgia is built to hit all the pressure points of the Gator offense and defense. Bigger more physical football teams have had their way with the Gators under Billy Napier and outside of 2022’s Utah contest, 2023 Tennessee, and Kentucky two weeks ago the gators have shown up to most contest such as this failing to land any body blows or counterpunches for that matter. Napier and staff deserve all the credit for holding this team together while many have been waiting for the Sunday after Thanksgiving for the winds to change. The team and his “organization” believe in what they are doing and the players have even shown empowerment from it. Unfortunately for the Gators the St. Johns River is one of seven major rivers in the U.S. to flow upstream and upstream is where they will need to play to pull this off. The crew is willing but the ship just isn’t quite ready to make the trip. The Gators show up but Georgia has too much bite and pulls away late. 

Prediction: Georgia 35 Florida 17