Pregame Analysis: Florida Gators (4-4, 2-3) v. Texas Longhorns (7-1, 3-1)

Will he or won't he? The health and availability of DJ Lagway looms over the Gators visit to Austin

By Loren Meadows, GatorBaitMedia.com, Football Analyst

Quaterback DJ Lagway (Chris Spears photo)

Texas Offense

Key Players-#3 QB Quin Ewers (6-2, 210, Jr.), #16 QB Arch Manning (6-4, 225, R-Fr) #26 Quintrevion Wisner (6-0, 200, So.) #23 RB Jaydon Blue (6-0, 200, Jr.) #9 RB Jerrick Gibson (5-10, 205, Fr.), #7 WR Isaiah Bond (5-11, 180, Jr./Alabama), #2 WR Matthew Golden (6-0, 190, Jr./Houston), #5 WR Ryan Wingo (6-2, 210, Fr.), #85 TE Gunnar Helm (6-5, 250, Sr.)

Matchups To Watch: Texas Receivers v. Florida’s Makeshift Secondary, Texas Offensive Line v. Florida Defensive Line

The Texas offense has been up and down and could be on its way to a quarterback controversy heading into the back end of the season. After throwing for 300 yards six times last season quarterback Quinn Ewers has yet to throw for 300 yards in the six games that he has played in in 2024. Ewers has thrown for 1,389 yards, 14 touchdowns, and six interceptions. It is the six interceptions along with two key fumbles in Texas’ loss to Georgia that has many thinking that Ewers may soon be supplanted by redshirt freshman Arch Manning. Manning has played well in relief of Ewers, throwing for 920 yards and nine touchdowns against two interceptions. Ewers showed improvement against Vanderbilt where he completed 17 straight passes for three touchdowns after an early interception. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian likes the experience of Ewers versus Manning and looks to be confident his quarterback will continue to round into his 2023 form. 

Ewers targets are a balanced group of big play targets that are healthy and available for the week. While Florida deals with injuries in the secondary the Texas group of Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, Ryan Wingo, and Gunnar Helm will be ready to go Saturday. Bond, Golden, and Wingo have combined for 64 catches, 1,040 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Bond was a favorite target of Jalen Milroe last season, leading Alabama with 48 catches for 668 yards and four touchdowns in 2023. Tight end Gunnar Helm leads Texas in receiving with 31 catches, 419 yards and two touchdowns. The Englewood, Colo. native was named Honorable Mention Big 12 in 2023 and has caught at least one pass in every game this season. The top four receivers perform well no matter who is running the Texas offense but have found more down the field success when Manning is at the helm. 

The running game for the Longhorns is solid attack that utilizes a running back by committee approach to get it done. Texas took an early season hit in its backfield when CJ Baxter and Christian Clark were lost for the season during preseason camp. This has caused the group to take a step back but they continue to provide some production. Texas is ranked 65th nationally in rushing averaging 158.4 yards per game. These numbers are not overly impressive but a rushing average of five yards per carry for the group is more than acceptable for a team with high-profile signal callers. Quintrevion Wisner leads the group with 409 rushing yards, and two touchdowns on 77 carries. Junior running back Jaydon Blue is right behind Wisner with 316 yards on 71 carries and four touchdowns. The third man in the rotation is Gainesville native Jerrick Gibson, who is having a solid freshman campaign with 227 yards on 48 carries with three touchdowns. Gibson spent his freshman year at Gainesville High School, another at Mundy Mill High School in Georgia before transferring to IMG Academy for his last two seasons. The injuries have forced the trio to carry the load more than expected but they have been more than serviceable. I

The Florida defense continues to improve as the season progresses. Once the laughing stock of the SEC the Florida defense has put the conference on notice playing well in their last three conference tests. The Gators will look to hold the line against a Texas offense that has scored points in buckets at times but self-admittedly has not found the rhythm that was expected this season. Texas had a week off after an up and down win against Vanderbilt in Nashville while the Gators are coming off a physical and emotionally taxing loss in the Cocktail Party. Can the Gators find it one more week against Texas on the road or will the loss of key personnel finally catch up to what has become a very scrappy bunch? The Gators finished the Cocktail Party down to their 5th and 6th cornerbacks but held their own. The return of Dijon Johnson for this week will be key to allow Trikweze Bridges to return to safety where he continues to improve. Johnson was listed as questionable on Florida’s availability report and his return would be good news for the Gators. The Gators are healthy in the front seven and have been able to handle the running game of their opponents fairly well in recent weeks. Shemar James and Pup Howard continue to improve at linebacker and they will be called upon to assist in stopping arguably the most versatile offense they have seen thus far. If there is a glaring blemish on the Texas offense, is they surrender a little over two sacks per game on par with the Gators pass rush. 

Aaron Gates will be key in stopping the Texas receivers (Chris Spears photo)

Texas Defense

Key Players-#0 LB Anthony Hill Jr. (6-3, 235, So.), #10 LB David Gbenda (6-0, 235, Jr.), #16 DB Michael Taafe (6-0, 195, Jr.), #7 DB Jahdae Barron (5-11, 200, Sr.) #3 DB Jaylon Guilbeau (6-0, 190, Jr.), #7 DB Jahdae Barron (5-11, 200, Sr.), #4 DB Andrew Mukuba (6-0, 190, Sr./Clemson), #11 EDGE Colin Simmons (6-3, 245, Fr.), #88 DL Barryn Sorrell (6-4, 260, Sr.), #95 DL Alfred Collins (6-5, 320, Sr.)

Matchups To Watch:  Florida QB’s v. Texas Pass Defense, Florida Offensive Line vs. Texas Defensive Line

The Texas Longhorns are playing historically well under defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski. The Longhorns rank in the Top 3 nationally in total defense, scoring defense, and pass defense. The unit is allowing just over 11 points per game and is solid at all three levels. The linebacker corps is deep and is led by sophomore Anthony Hill Jr. and junior David Gbenda. Hill was co-Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year in 2023 and leads Texas with 58 tackles, 10 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. Hill is one of the nation’s most athletic linebackers with sprinters speed and a knack for the football. Gbenda is the elder statesman of the duo with 40 appearances in his five seasons at Texas. Gbenda is extremely physical at the point of attack and a great complement to Hill.

The job of keeping folks off of Hill and Gbenda falls on a solid defensive line that has good size and improving depth. 5th year senior Alfred Collins anchors a unit that has been stout against the run all season. Collins has great size and is adept at managing double teams to allow the Texas linebackers to roam free. He is also skilled at getting his hands up to disrupt passes with three breakups this season. Barryn Sorrel is third on the team in tackles for loss and sacks. Another member of the defensive line with experience the edge rusher from New Orleans has appeared in a total of 38 games with 29 starts. An Honorable Mention All-Big 12 selection last season Sorrel has helped the Texas defense flourish in their inaugural SEC season. With all the experience along the defensive front freshman Colin Simmons looks to be star in the making with 23 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and four sacks. This week Simmons was named a semifinalist for the Shaun Alexander Freshman of the Year and his play has been beyond the expectations of the Texas staff when he signed with the Longhorns out of Texas high school power Duncanville, Texas.

The most dynamic unit on the entire Texas team could be the secondary. Texas features real NFL talent on the back end and they are a connected group that can play in space and finish against the run. Safety Michael Taafe immediately shows up on tape as a downhill player that is no stranger to contact. Taafe leads the secondary in tackles and is versatile enough to play both tight ends and slot receivers. This season he has four pass break-ups, 2.5 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, one interception, and one quarterback hurry. Look for him to be that extra man in the box or even spy DJ Lagway should he be available for Florida.

After Taafe the secondary is full of athleticism, experience and leadership. Fifth-year senior Jahdae Barron spurned the NFL Draft to return to Austin and in turn has made himself into a possible first round draft pick. The Thorpe Award semifinalist has shot up the draft boards with the ability to affect the game from all three secondary positions. Primarily playing at the STAR (nickel) position Barron is a utility belt in Kwiatkowski’s defense. Barron leads the team with three interceptions and six pass breakups and Pro Football Focus rates him the top Power Four cornerback in the country this season. Under the leadership of Taafe and Barron first-year starter Jaylon Gilbeau has found a home in the Texas back line. Fourth on the team in tackles Gilbeau is becoming a solid player on the outside.

The glue of the secondary could be Austin native Andrew Mukuba who returned home after four seasons at Clemson. Mukuba missed the Texas trip to Vanderbilt two weeks ago but his return would be welcomed by the Texas faithful. Mukuba was the first true freshman defensive back to start the season opener since 1972 and started more games than any true freshman defensive back in the modern era. His experience and ability are one of the reasons that Texas is on a historical defensive run. 

No matter who plays quarterback the Florida offense will be up against the toughest defense they have faced for the third straight week. If Kentucky was the appetizer, Georgia was the main course, then Texas is a that dessert at the carry-in that you don’t want any part of. Texas is full of playmakers and as mentioned before play a connected brand of football. Despite the loss the Texas defense was able to force Carson Beck into three interceptions while holding Vanderbilt to 269 yards of total offense. If Warner is the starter in place of DJ Lagway, then it will be imperative that he is decisive, and gets the ball out quickly with confidence. Should Lagway play then he will certainly need to be well enough to once again allow his feet to be the difference as finding opportunities for the long ball could be few and far between. If the Gators can continue to get the run game going with their bevy of backs, they may be able to sneak one over the top late. The Gator offensive line has improved and ran the ball effectively against the stalwart defensive lines of Kentucky and Georgia.

The Skinny: The Gator football program received some news yesterday that Billy Napier will return for the 2025 season. Whether the news is good or bad would depend on who you ask. What you do have is a team that is totally bought into what Napier is selling and the team has consistently raised its level of play since early October. Going on the road and throwing up duds looks to be a thing of the past for this football team and a trip to Austin could be another example that Napier may be heading in the right direction. Unfortunately for the Gators they may have to try to go at it with CEO in the making Yale transfer Aiden Warner at quarterback. The offense took a visible step back when Lagway left the game last week but the team moral did not and that is admirable. Down to putting spectators Quincy Wilson and Teez Tabor in the game, the cornerback position was on life support as well. Despite that the team played hard and I suspect that they will do so again regardless if Lagway is available for the early start. Games like this are tough because the prediction should come with an asterisk. If Lagway plays and can move, the Gators could find a way to keep it interesting.  If he doesn’t the defense of Texas and either quarterback may be too much for Napier and company this time. See you next year in Gainesville Longhorns, it could be a different story.

Prediction: Texas 35 Florida 14/*Texas 35 Florida 27

*If Lagway plays