Pregame Preview: Florida Gators (4-5, 2-4) v. #21 LSU Tigers (6-3, 3-2)

Lagway and Badger are set to return but will the defense have enough to stop Nussmeier and the Tigers?

By Loren Meadows, GatorBaitMedia.com, Football Analyst

Elijah Badger returns this week (Chris Spears photo)

LSU Offense

Key Players-#13 Garrett Nussmeier (6-2, 200, R-Jr.), #29 RB Caden Durham (5-9, 205, Fr.) #18 RB Josh Williams (5-9, 210, Gr.) #2 WR Kyren Lacy (6-2, 213, Sr.), #1 WR Aaron Anderson (5-8, 187, R-So.), #4 CJ Daniels (6-2, 205, Gr./Liberty), #0 Zavion Thomas (5-10, 195, Jr./Miss St.) #86 TE Mason Taylor (6-5, 255, Jr.)

Matchups To Watch: LSU Lack of Running Game v. Florida Front Seven, LSU Receivers v. Florida Reserve Corners

LSU is a talented offense that has unfortunately been one sided in its production. While LSU is 7th in the country in passing and 48th in scoring offense they are an abysmal 113th in rushing. The offense has been carried by the arm of a patient, talented passer and a solid group of receivers. Garret Nussmeier the son of former Florida OC Doug Nussmeier patiently waited his turn behind Jayden Daniels and in his first year as a starter has played well. Nussmeier who spent on year at Bucholtz High School in Gainesville, has thrown for over 2800 yards for 21 touchdowns. The downside is that Nussmeier has been hit with the turnover bug of late throwing five of his eleven interceptions in his last two games. Nussmeier is a pro-style quarterback who can distribute the ball equally to his six top receivers including tight end Mason Taylor.

Those receivers are once again a corps of some of the SEC’s best. Collectively, the group plays with a confidence and swagger that allows them to play larger than some of them may be. Kyren Lacy leads the group with 46 catches for 697 yards and seven touchdowns. Lacy has begun to grab the attention of NFL draft analyst and will be looking to enhance his resume’ on Saturday. Aaron Anderson has also been solid working mainly in the slot. Anderson is second on the team with 39 catches for 641 yards and 4 touchdowns. Anderson, who possesses elite speed has been a reliable target all season. Liberty transfer CJ Daniels has been solid again after a breakout season that saw Liberty make it to the Fiesta Bowl after capturing the Conference USA title. Daniels has handled the step up in competition grabbing 32 catches for 368 yards. While he has yet to score, he will be a key target for Nussmeier on third downs. Tight End Mason Taylor, son of NFL Hall of Famer Jason Taylor is a matchup issue for any defense. Taylor has a great football IQ and is physical after the catch. In just his third season Taylor is on pace to be the first career 1,000 yard tight end in school history. The two most dangerous receivers for LSU could be Chris Hilton Jr. and Zavion Thomas, albeit for different reasons. Hilton was set to be LSU’s go to receiver but suffered an ankle injury that sidelined him for the first seven weeks of the season. When healthy he has elite speed and jumping ability. Thomas handles both kick and punt returns and is capable of changing the game whenever he touches the ball. Thomas has 18 catches for 180 yards and two touchdowns but it is his 26 yard per return kickoff average that should keep the duo of Chris Couch and Joe Houston busy preparing on special teams.

Despite the talent on the perimeter it is the running game that has failed to meet expectations for Head Coach Brian Kelly. Kelly wants a physical ground game to complement the passing game and so far, that has not been the case. LSU is last in the SEC in rushing and have averaged just over 100 yards per game against sec foes. The duo of Caden Durham and Josh Williams have carried most of the load for LSU and while talented have struggled to get the ground game going. Durham a true freshman, leads all rushers with 460 yards, six touchdowns, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. Durham has top level speed (10.28 100-meter dash) and like Florida’s Jaden Baugh is making a name for himself early. Josh Williams continues to be solid in his sixth and final season in Baton Rouge. A former walk-on, Williams is the last player at LSU from the 2019 championship team. Williams has not been quite as productive as Durham but has played in big games throughout his career and is no stranger to The Swamp.

Defensively Florida will look to get back to the type of defense that allowed them to dominate UCF, and Kentucky, while going toe to toe with Georgia. LSU has not been pleased with their last two outings and will look to put it all together Saturday. Can the Gators get LSU into third and long and “marry” the rush with the coverage, or will LSU find enough of a running game to keep the offense on schedule and go over the top of a secondary playing its fourth and fifth corners? LSU gives up less than a sack a game, the Gators get nearly 1.5 a game. If Nussmeier has time, it could be a long day for the Gators who have been up and down in the secondary. Florida has also struggled to cover receivers out of the backfield so look for him to go with safer checkdowns to get comfortable early. If Florida can manage a must have turnover or two, or three they could be in position to grab an upset at home. Under Napier teams have found a way to do what they do worst really well against the Gators, will the trend continue Saturday?

LSU Defense

Key Players-#40 LB Whit Weeks (6-2, 228, So.), #18 LB Greg Penn III (6-2, 234, Sr.),

#4 DE Brayden Swinson (6-4, 250, Sr.), #35 DE Sai’vion Jones (6-6, 280, Sr.), #8 DB Major Burns (6-2, 200, Sr.), #1 DB Ashton Stamps (6-0, 190, So.), #3 DB Sage Ryan (5-11, 201, R-Jr.)

Matchups To Watch:  DJ Lagway v. LSU Linebackers, Florida Offensive Line v. LSU Front

LSU has struggled in SEC play ranking 12th in total defense against conference opponents. Against Texas A&M and Alabama they surrendered more than 550 yards rushing and gave up 70 points in total. The defense is not without talent but the run defense will need to improve. Whit Weeks has been a bright spot for the defense with 92 tackles, 7.5 for loss, 2.5 sacks and one interception. Weeks is a sideline to sideline linebacker that made three starts as a true freshman last season. Greg Penn III is another linebacker at the service of defensive coordinator Blake Baker. An intelligent, athletic linebacker, Penn brings experience to the defense and wears the coveted “18” for LSU. Up front LSU is 11th nationally in sacks with Sai’vion Jones and Brayden Swinson leading the team in with 12.5 total. Jones is long with great size and physicality, while Swinson, who spent three seasons at Oregon is athletic and can dominate you with his speed. 

In the secondary Blake has a versatile, confident bunch coached by former Gator secondary coach Corey Raymond. Safety Major Burns has been a consistent contributor in the LSU secondary since transferring from Georgia after his freshman year. Burns has 23 career starts and is known as a ferocious tackler. Cornerback Ashton Stamps was one of two freshman to start at corner for LSU in 2023 and is having another solid season. Stamps is fourth on the team in tackles with 36 and leads the team with eight pass breakups. Sage Ryan has played cornerback, safety, and nickel during his time at LSU. The versatile redshirt junior had four tackles and a pass break up against Florida last year and continues to play well this season. Ryan has recorded 36 tackles, two for loss, one sack and three pass breakups this season. A former Louisiana Mr. Football, Ryan is the cousin of former LSU running back Kevin Faulk. 

LSU has struggled to stop teams with mobile quarterbacks the last two weeks. Marcel Reed of Texas A&M and Alabama’s Jalen Milroe both found success on the ground rushing for 62 and 182 yards against them. LSU ranks 14th in the SEC in run defense and running the ball is what the Gators have done best this season. While Florida is not a juggernaut, they do rank 10th in the SEC in rushing and 8th against conference opponents. All said even with Lagway most likely returning, the Gators need to run the football and run it well. LSU struggled to get Milroe to the ground and even if Lagway is 75%, the quarterback run game or the threat thereof can be exploited. The presence of Lagway will put stress on Weeks and Penn to keep an eye on him at all times and his arm strength will keep Burns and Ryan on notice as they try to keep Chimere Dike, Aiden Mizell, and Elijah “Big Play” Badger in front of them. Florida will need to control the clock in order to help its banged up defense stay off the field and the running game led by the threat of Lagway could be the difference. 

Florida must play better on defense (Chris Spears photo)

The Skinny: After a vote of confidence from Scott Stricklen last week the Gators went out an threw a dud grenade against Texas. Visibly upset by his team’s performance, Napier acknowledged that their effort was not good enough. Now back at home where they are on a two game win streak, the Gators have an opportunity to take one from an LSU team looking to lick their own wounds. Florida and LSU have played some classics over the years, unfortunately for the Gators the last five have gone with the cats from Baton Rouge. The weird or so-called curses of games past have definitely been talking points this week but in reality, the team who lands the heaviest blows will win the day. Should Florida allow Nussmeier to get the Ginsu knives out and get to carving, then the Gators are in trouble. Should the return of Lagway breath life back into what was an improving offense then things could get interesting. LSU has failed to run the ball and failed to stop it. Florida somehow finds a way to throw the numbers out of the window and allow teams to do what they want even when they may be attempting not to. Can Florida run on a vulnerable LSU front? Can LSU find enough of offensive balance to get it going against and ailing Gator defense? The answer on both count is yes, which leads to a close LSU win.

Prediction: LSU 27 Florida 20