Preview: Florida Gators (6-5, 4-4) v. Florida State Seminoles (2-9, 1-7)

Records are out the window when these two rivals get together.

By Loren Meadows GatorBaitMedia.com, Football Analyst

Florida receiver Chimere Dike (Chris Spears photo)

TALLAHASSEE, FL

FSU Offense

Key Players-#14 QB Luke Kromenhoek (6-4, 208, Sr.), #11 QB Brock Glenn (6-2, 215, R-Fr.) #9 RB Lawrence Toafili (6-0, 196, R-Sr.) #3 RB Kam Davis (5-10, 224, Fr.), #24 RB Caziah Holmes (5-11, 215, R-Sr.), #0 WR Ja’khi Douglas (5-9, 195, R-Sr.), #10 WR Malik Benson (6-1, 195 Sr./Alabama), #8 WR Hykeem Williams (6-2, 215, So.) #1 WR Kentron Poitier (6-3, 202, R-Sr.) #84 TE Kyle Morlock (6-6, 240, R-Sr.), #18 TE Landen Thomas (6-4, 235, Fr.)

Matchups To Watch: Florida State Offensive v. Florida Pass Rush, Kromenhoek v. The Creeper

Florida State has not been well on offense the entire season. Offensive Coordinator Alex Atkins was fired on Nov. 11, after presiding over an offense that statistically is the worst in the ACC. FSU’s problems on offense start at the top and work their way down from there. The quarterback position has been an issue all season with the return of DJ Uiagalelei to the ACC not going as well as planned. FSU has seemed to look for the future going forward as true freshman Luke Kromenhoek has assumed the position of QB1 and will be making his second start when FSU hosts the Gators Saturday. Kromenhoek was 13 of 20 for 209 yards in his first career start against Charleston Southern and looked comfortable handling the RPO game and showed the arm strength that made him a Top 5 QB recruit in 2024. Should Kromenhoek struggle, FSU coach Mike Norvell could turn to redshirt freshman Brock Glenn, who has started five games this season as well as the ACC Championship Game and the Orange Bowl last season. Unfortunately for FSU, the quarterback position has posted a rating of 105.3 with 11 touchdowns against 14 interceptions. Kromenhoek looks to be the future but the position has been the biggest issue for this team all season.

While FSU has struggled to move the ball through the air, the Noles have struggled with their ground troops as well. FSU ranks 129th nationally in rushing with just 89.1 yards per game andj 2.9 yards per carry. Lawrence Toafili is the lead back after a reserve role last season and leads the team with 413 yards rushing. To his credit, Toafili is a solid receiver out of the backfield and could be used to create mismatches against a Gator defense that has struggled to cover receivers out of the backfield. True freshman Kam Davis is second on the team in carries and has potential. He was rated the 3rd best back in the Class of 2024 and at 224 pounds can be hard to bring down. Caziah Holmes rounds out the trio of backs leading the team in both yards per carry (5.6) and touchdowns (3). Holmes who began his career at Penn State, started last seasons’ Orange Bowl and has sprinters speed in the open field.

The FSU receivers are a talented bunch and have clearly felt the sting of subpar quarterback play this season. All have experience and have played in big games. Ja’khi Douglas leads the team in catches yards and touchdown and has been as reliable a target as FSU has had all season. He is followed on the list by Alabama transfer Malik Benson who appeared in all 14 of Alabama’s games last season. The former junior college recruit has 24 catches for 306 yards this season. Sophomore Hykeem Williams was the nation’s third ranked prospect in the Class of 2023 and at 6-2, 215 pounds has an NFL frame. A talented young player, but the issues at quarterback surely have affected his growth. Kentron Poitier is the most experienced player of the group with more than 50 appearances in five years at FSU. As a unit, the FSU wideouts collectively average close to 14 yards per catch so the ability to be effective is there. At tight end both Kyle Morlock and Landen Thomas are good tight ends but again have felt the woes of the passing game with just one touchdown between them. Thomas had two receptions a week ago and could be counted on to help Kromenhoek move the chains on short passing downs.

FSU is an offense in transition. With the dismissal of Alex Atkins and receiver coach Ron Duggins FSU will be in search of a new offensive coordinator this offseason. For now it will be interesting to see where this offense goes for the game against the Gators with a quarterback making his second start. The Gators look to have finally mastered the art of the “creeper” under Ron Roberts and Austin Armstrong tallying 11 sacks the past two weeks. With an offensive line without a position coach and giving up close to four sacks a game Kromenhoek could find himself under distress early and often. Look for the Gators to bring multiple looks pre-snap while banking on the fact that whatever four that come through the door can get home. On the ground something has to give. The Gators have struggled at times to stop the run but are improving. FSU struggles to pound the rock and averages only 80 yards per game against FBS opponents. If the run game is absent again the Gators will look to feast on the young quarterback for post Thanksgiving dinner. 

FSU Defense

Key Players-#1 DB Shyheim Brown (6-2, 208, R-Jr.), #20 LB Blake Nichelson (6-3, 224, So.),  

#8 DB Azareye'h Thomas (6-2, 198, Jr.) #18 LB Cam Riley (6-5, 237, Sr./Auburn), #DB 24 DB KJ Kirkland (6-1, 206, R-Fr.) #11 DL Patrick Payton (6-5, 250, R-Jr.) #6 DL Darrel Jackson Jr. (6-5, 330, Jr.), #7 DE Marvin Jones Jr. (6-5, 255, Jr./Georgia)

Matchups To Watch: DJ Lagway and Company v. Florida State, Florida Run Game v. Florida State Front Seven

The defense has talent but has underachieved. A defense that was the rock of an ACC Championship team last season has struggled to yield consistent results this year. Along with Alex Atkins on offense Mike Norvell chose to relieve defensive coordinator Adam Fuller of his duties as well leaving former Gator defensive coordinator Randy Shannon to handle the defense. The defense is led in tackles by defensive back and Lake City native Shyheim Brown who started all 14 games for FSU including last year’s game in Gainesville where he had a career high eight tackles. Joining Brown on the back end are Azareye’h Thomas and DJ Kirkland who are third and fifth on the team in tackles respectively. While all three are talented and have appeared in over 40 career games the trio has failed to record a single interception this season.  

Blake Nichelson mans the middle for FSU and continues to improve as a sophomore. He is second on the team in tackles with 48. Auburn transfer Cam Riley is second among the FSU linebackers with 44 tackles and four tackles for loss. With 10 career starts at Auburn he is no stranger to big rivalry games. Up front FSU has a capable group that will look to make life difficult for DJ Lagway. The group is led by Patrick Payton who has collected four sacks and 11 tackles for loss. Darrel Jackson is 330 pounds and will battle with Gators center Jake Slaughter for supremacy in the A-gaps. Jackson began his career at Miami where he started 12 games as a sophomore and made 25 appearances in two years. Transfer Marvin Jones Jr. comes to his father’s alma mater after spending two seasons at Georgia. The son of College and FSU Hall of Famer Marvin Jones, Jones is one of the top young edge rushers in the ACC and will look to take advantage of the Florida tackles and get pressure on Lagway.

Florida tackle Austin Barber (Chris Spears photo)

The Skinny: This rivalry is unique in the fact that the familiarity of the combatants is so close that it can invade the same Thanksgiving table. Case in point, Florida safety Jordan Castell is the grandson of an FSU graduate who defiantly chooses not to root for the Gators and reminds her grandson of the FSU victory in his freshman season on a daily basis. While FSU has struggled all would be forgiven if they could welcome their rival to Tallahassee and send them home with an embarrassing loss. Yes embarrassing. After two of the most important wins of the Napier era, the Gators are on upset alert as the make the trip north for a seventh regular season win for the first time in four years. Florida State has talent in spots but has been unable to find a rhythm offensively and that has been its undoing. Florida is led by a future star at quarterback and is playing with the confidence that many expected when the season began. FSU ranks 106 nationally against the run surrendering 180 yards per game. Florida rushed for 164 yards last week against the best front in the SEC so look for the Gators to lean on the FSU front early. The running game could be boosted by the fact that DJ Lagway continues to heal from a leg injury that has limited his mobility. Is this the week he brings more mojo to the running game? The bottom line is that FSU has struggled so much offensively that it is hard to fathom that the Gators would take a step back after playing so well the past two weeks. With that said, FSU will play with emotion, but that emotion will not be enough to take out the Gators. The improved health of Lagway and Montrell Johnson Jr. continue to make the Gators better and if they hit a couple big plays early to jump on their rivals, could quiet a crowd looking for a reason to get to those leftovers early.   

Prediction:  Florida 28 Florida State 14