Say Hello To Carlton. He May Enlighten You On Football. He May Not. But He's Got 'A Guy.'

For historical perspective, Florida was the system’s national champion in 1984 and not BYU, something that sang loudly the veracity of his numbers over polls.

By CARLTON REESE Do not let the byline confuse you – when I write of “Carlton the Doorman” it is not of myself, just a happenstance that the subject here shares the same name. I write of “Carlton the Doorman” because as his name suggests, he has come across many people in his life including those of great wealth, stature and intellect. While I am one of those acquaintances that falls in none of those categories, I am fortunate enough to have befriended Carlton many years ago and gained a somewhat third-party access to his connections. As a college football fan, this has been of notable benefit both in terms of several wagers over the years and through a simple non-biased understanding of the true strengths of teams. You see, Carlton the Doorman has been privy to a numbers system devised by one of his contacts who fancies himself a mathematics guru and who figured out a long time ago the best way to rate college football teams. Part Jeff Sagarin, part John Nash and part Jimmy the Greek, this numerologist who requests his anonymity developed a college football ratings system in the mid-1980s and has used it to rank teams and find valuable underdogs and sure-fire favorites along the way. For historical perspective, Florida was the system’s national champion in 1984 and not BYU, something that sang loudly the veracity of his numbers over polls. I’ve never met this person, and Carlton’s intimate knowledge and timely disclosures has led me to think perhaps there is no mysterious numbers guy at all, that indeed the system is Carlton’s very own. But Carlton the Doorman does have a social life despite his title, and as such would seem to be one who would not invest the time needed for such schemes. Until I discover otherwise, I take Carlton at his word – he has a guy with a system for ranking college football teams and picking winners. About the system, I only know that our guy has created an algorithm such that every team is represented by a number, or rating, which increases or decreases depending on the actual results of games compared to expected results. There is a system line for each game and when held up against the Vegas lines, certain trends are sought out to determine which games are most likely to come up winners. As for the algorithms involved, this remains top-secret. Our guy calls his system “The Koran” as though it is akin to some holy book with answers. I’m told he felt calling it “The Gospel” was sacrilegious to his own Christian faith, so he went with another of the Abrahamic religions. I guess this explains his desire for anonymity so as not to end up on the wrong end of some fatwa. Recently the 2021 preseason rankings came out and they’re none too pretty, especially for Gator fans. Preseason rankings are devised using a formula that involves numbers of returning starters from the previous season, the veteran status of the starting quarterback and plotting those numbers on a grid with the last year’s final rating. The Gators’ late-season slide, their return of only nine starters that did not include their quarterback, means a low rating that keeps them far from the top 20. My first reaction to The Koran’s Top 20 was to laugh in derision. What you will find are teams such as Coastal Carolina, Liberty, Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulsa, Ball State and San Jose State all with top-20 rankings. Our guy explains this as a result of a bizarre 2020 season in which teams rarely left their conferences to play games, a factor that is tantamount to creating a national ranking system. As such, teams were able to build high ratings without facing foes needed to make useful comparable comparisons. The Doorman assures me these imperfections and idiosyncracies will work themselves out the first couple weeks of the 2021 season. So here is the The Koran’s 2021 preseason top 20. Gator and Georgia Bulldogs fans, prepare too boo, (rating in parantheses): 1. Alabama (103) 2. Iowa State (101.5) 3. Oklahoma (92) 4. Texas A&M (86) 5. Clemson (85) 6. Indiana (84) 7. Ohio State (82.5) 8. North Carolina (82.5) 9. Coastal Carolina (79.5) 10. Liberty (79.5) 11. Iowa (76.5) 12. Cincinnati (74.5) 13. Louisiana-Lafayette (74.5) 14. Ole Miss (74) 15. Miami (74) 16. Wisconsin (74) 17. Tulsa (73.5) 18. Georgia (72.5) 19. Ball State (71) 20. San Jose State (70.5) SEC Ratings: 1. Alabama 2. Texas A&M 3. Ole Miss 4. Georgia 5. Auburn (66.5) 6. LSU (59.5) 7. Mississippi State (59.5) 8. Florida (45) 9. Arkansas (43) 10. Missouri (38) 11. Kentucky (26.5) 12. Tennessee (15.5) 13. Vanderbilt (14.5) 14. South Carolina (9) Other teams of interest: Florida State (14.5; 13th of 14 ACC teams); Michigan (29; 13th of 14 Big Ten teams); Texas (67.5; 3rd of 10 Big 12 teams); UCLA (68.5; 1st in Pac 12); Notre Dame (49; 3rd among independents); Central Florida (50.5; 5th in AAC); South Florida (16; 9th in AAC); Florida Atlantic (43.5; 4th in CUSA); Florida International (0; 13th in CUSA). Before opening week, I am assured The Koran will have its margins and any picks on the betting line deemed worthy. Until then, here’s believing The Koran has it wrong on the Florida Gators.