The best way for the Gators to win is keep the ball away from Trinidad Chambliss
The Ole Miss Rebels (3-0, 1-0 SEC) are the No. 4 team in the country for a reason. They have two impressive wins over ranked teams – Louisville and LSU – plus they have what is widely considered the best college football player in the country in Trinidad Chambliss. And yet the Rebels are 3.5 underdogs for Saturday’s close encounter with No. 21 Florida (3-0, 1-0 SEC) at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (3:30 p.m., ABC).
The spread opened at 1.5 in Florida’s favor Sunday morning and by Monday morning had doubled, which prompted Jon Sumrall to quip “There’s a lot of good drugs out there” at his weekly press conference. Since then a half point has been added by the folks that set the odds in Las Vegas.
Sumrall began downplaying Florida’s chances Saturday night after the Gators knocked off Auburn, 44-39, at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Sixteen penalties – 12 against the offense, four on the defense – obviously irked Sumrall. The Gators had four penalties in their season opening win over Florida Atlantic, doubled that total against Campbell in game two and then doubled up again against Auburn.
Sumrall said after the Auburn game, “If we don't get that fixed and get back to how we were in week one, we are about to get absolutely embarrassed when we play high-end SEC teams.”
Based on the current rankings, there aren’t too many teams out there more high end than Ole Miss at the moment. Sumrall is right about the penalties. Beating Auburn with 16 penalties is one thing. Ole Miss has far more experience, Chambliss at quarterback and if he’s healthy for a change, running back Kewan Lacy, who ran for 1,567 yards and 24 touchdowns last year. Lacy has a bum shoulder that has him listed as questionable (50-50 chance he plays) for Saturday. His three-game totals this year pale in comparison to last: 39 carries, 191 yards and four touchdowns.
If Lacy is healthy enough to carry the football 20 or more times Saturday it will make Chambliss even more effective. Chambliss has completed 77-110 passes for 924 yards (8.4 per attempt) and seven touchdowns. He has run for two more.
The over/under on this game is 58.5 points, so the folks in Las Vegas as well as most of the media experts tend to think this game will be settled in shootout fashion. The defenses tend to give that impression. Florida has been effective against the run so far (94.67 yards per game, 3.05 yards per carry) but shaky stopping the pass. Auburn quarterback Byrum Brown threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns even though the Gators sacked him seven times. Ole Miss ranks 15th out of 16 teams in the SEC in total defense at 373.7 yards per game.
Florida has plenty of firepower in quarterback Aaron Philo (721 passing yards, 11.3 per attempt, 6 TDPs), running back Jadan Baugh (second in the nation 458 yards, 8.58 per carry, 8 TDs) and wide receivers Vernell Brown III (14-246, 2 TDs) and Dallas Wilson (12-225, 2 TDs). Eric Singleton Jr. is listed as questionable, but if he is able to play Florida will present Ole Miss coach Pete Golding with the dilemma of who do you double up?
Rather than try to win this one in a start heaving the ball all over the yard from the moment they step off the bus fashion, the Gators might elect to do it by playing defense with the offense. The way you do that is ground and pound to control the clock. Against Auburn the Gators ran 84 plays, only 23 of them passes, while eating up the clock to the tune of 39 minutes time of possession. When Auburn tried to load up the box to stuff the run, that’s when Philo went over the top.
Something similar might be in the works for Ole Miss. The best way to keep Chambliss from one of do that voodoo that you do so well type of games is to keep him on the sideline. There is no better way of doing it than control the clock with the running game.
The three-game stats indicate Ole Miss is vulnerable against the run. The Rebels are allowing 159 yards a game and 4.15 yards per carry. Those aren’t outrageous numbers but teams have moved the ball steadily. LSU, which ran for 173 yards last week, got back into the game by running the football after a disastrous 17-0 start.
The X-Factor in all this speculation is Florida offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner. He is anything but predictable. He may take the Steve Spurrier approach which is to heave the ball all over the yard to get a decent lead in the first half, then pound it between the tackles in the second half. The other approach could be similar to that of the 1984 Gators who let the Great Wall pound teams into submission and threw it over the top when the opposing safeties committed to the run.
This is a very winnable game for the Gators, especially if the Gators can keep the ball out of the hands of Trinidad Chambliss and in the hands of Jadan Baugh.
COUNTDOWN TO FIRING DAY
EXTINCT SPECIES LIST
None so far but things are heating up
ON LIFE SUPPORT
Dave Doeren, North Carolina State: That loss to Vanderbilt might be the last straw. Doeren has been at NC State for years and he’s won more than he lost, but he has never won a championship. The Moo U alums think that a coach who’s paid more than $6 million a year should at least be a consistent contender.
Mike Norvell, Florida State: If Jimbo Fisher is willing to work cheap while squeezing by on the $75 million the Aggies paid him to go away, FSU might have its solution for the Norvell problem. They want him gone. Now. Look for a lot of empty seats at The Great Erector Set this weekend when Central Arkansas comes to town.
Bill Belichick, North Carolina: GM Michael Lombardi and Steve Belichick were involved in scandals and so they’re gone leaving Bill to fend for himself. He’s getting paid $10 million a year and so far all he has delivered is bad publicity. Lots of empty seats at Kenan Stadium make matters worse. Open date this week, but Notre Dame next on the schedule. Things are set to go from bad to worse.
Dell McGee, Georgia State: He’s 6-21 at a school that has made bowl games so nobody is happy. They don’t have much money, however, so six wins and he’s back another year.
Greg Schiano, Rutgers: Rutgers is a surprising 2-1 and with Howard on the Friday agenda, a third win seems rather certain. There might not be another winnable game on the schedule. Schiano is actually a very good football coach, but Rutgers is a graveyard. A nice paying graveyard ($6.5 million a year) but a graveyard just the same.
Mike Locksley, Maryland: The Terps are 2-1. It’s difficult to see more than one or two wins in the remaining nine games. UM is so deep in athletic department red ink that Locks probably saves his job if he can get three more wins. Four more and he’s good for another year, maybe two. Odds of that happening? Not very good.
Bill O’Brien, Boston College: He’s got the smallest NIL budget among the power conference teams and he’s among the lowest paid head coaches in the Almost Competitive Conference so he’s in an impossible situation. Still, the Eagles are 2-1. If they get bowl eligible the folks calling for O’Brien’s head are going to feel rather silly. Six wins is entirely possible Seven is do-able, too.
Luke Fickell, Wisconsin: The Badgers are 2-1 but they will not be favored to win another game until they face Rutgers the first weekend in November. Fickell must be asking himself what the hell was I thinking when I left Cincinnati for this place? He won big at Cincy. He’s about to be fired at Wiscy.
ENDANGERED SPECIES LIST
Dabo Swinney, Clemson: Just when people start counting Dabo out he rallies the troops and makes the doubters look silly. The offense stinks and the defense isn’t typical Clemson standard, but the schedule isn’t that bad. Other than Miami, there isn’t a game that the Tigers can’t win. A 9-3 record would send waves of hope through the IPTAY folks. One more thing: Dabo has earned the right to leave Clemson on his own terms.
Dave Aranda, Baylor: There is good news and bad news for Dave Aranda. The good news is the Bears have won two in a row with Nate Bennett at QB while DJ Lagway recovers from a high ankle sprain. Lagway is scheduled to start Saturday. That’s the bad news. If Colorado wins this game, Aranda will be On Life Support next week.
Shane Beamer, South Carolina: The Fighting Chickens won their first two against lightweights before discovering they couldn’t stop Kamario Taylor and Mississippi State. This week they’re in Tuscaloosa. Buzzards might be circling the football complex on Sunday. He’s paid $8.125 million and for that kind of money more is expected.
Joe Moorhead, Akron: The Zips are 1-2 so far, which for Akron is a brilliant start. Getting to three wins would be quite an accomplishment. Chances of that happening? Slim. Very slim. What keeps him gainfully employed is he works cheap.
Deion Sanders, Colorado: The novelty of Prime Time as the head coach has worn off. They’re paying him almost $9 million a year and for that kind of money they expect to be contenders, which they aren’t. The Buffs are 1-2 and a second straight losing season is in the cards. They probably won’t fire him this year, but he will be expected to win big next year or he walks the plank.
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