The NBA drafts tonight: Who will select Walter Clayton Jr. 1st round?

Where will Walter Clayton Jr. (1) go in tonight's NBA Draft (Photo by Chris Spears)

The NBA will draft tonight and Duke’s Cooper Flagg will be the No. 1 pick of the Dallas Mavericks. The odds are better that Vesuvius will erupt spewing lava all over Naples that someone other than Flagg will go No. 1. The NBA hopes he is the next Larry Bird, capable of resurrecting the league’s sagging television numbers, which were down 19 percent in the championship finals this year and have been in steady decline ever since 2017 when the Golden State Warriors dispatched the Cleveland Cadavers in five games.

That Flagg will go first is a foregone conclusion. A better question for Florida fans is who will draft Walter Clayton Jr.? Four of the more prominent writers have Clayton going No. 25 to the Orlando Magic. Two have him going No. 21 to the Utah Jazz. Jonathan Gilvoy and Jeremy Woo of ESPN have Clayton going No. 20 to the Miami Heat. That’s the highest anyone seems to have him going.

Gator fans would love seeing Walter stay in-state at either Orlando or Miami, but is he a good fit at either place? Orlando just traded for Desmond Bane, a shooting guard from Memphis who Magic brass hope will add some juice to one of the worst offenses in the league. One of the real issues with the team is the lack of a point guard who is a pass first type. Clayton knows how to distribute the basketball, but he would certainly be a better fit in a free-flowing offense that would take advantage of his seize the moment abilities. Miami has a high-scoring point guard in Tyler Herro (23.9 points, 5.5 assists) and a solid backup in Davion Mitchell (10.3 points, 5.3 assists). Would Miami be willing to play Clayton off the ball even though he’s 6-2, which is rather undersized for the position?

Utah has a crowded backcourt with Collin Sexton, Keyonte George, Jordan Clarkson and Isaiah Collier. The Jazz were the worst defensive team in the NBA last year so would they draft Clayton, who is a dynamic scorer and a good but not great defender?

Most of the mock drafts have five or six point guards going ahead of Clayton. Are there really that many point guards better? If we go by what he did in the SEC Tournament and then six NCAA Tournament games when he led the Gators to the national championship, then the answer is probably not. Of the point guards listed ahead of Clayton, none of them made it to the Sweet 16 round of the NCAA Tournament. Winners tend to win and Walter Clayton Jr. is a winner who came up big when the pressure was the greatest.

If there is a real problem for Walter Clayton Jr. it is that he spent four years playing college basketball. Since 2010, only four seniors and 13 juniors have been drafted among the top ten in any draft year. In 2010, three juniors were among the top ten. Three times (2011, 2013 and 2016), one junior and one senior were among the first ten players selected. In every mock draft listed below, the top ten players are all either freshmen or foreign players.

Florida coach Todd Golden understands fully that the NBA goes for youth and potential before they get around to drafting experienced, mature players like Walter Clayton Jr., who was a consensus All-American and the most outstanding player in the SEC Tournament, the NCAA West Regional and the NCAA Final Four. Golden is not about to concede there are many players capable of that.

“Personally, I think he should be close to, like, 10, you know, 12, if I was a NBA GM, but I'm not,” Golden said last week. “We'll see, but whoever picks him is going to get an incredible value, and then in two years, people are gonna be, 'How did Walter Clayton drop to that. Why did he go there?'

“I'm just telling you right now that's what's gonna happen, because you look at guys like Fred VanVleet, Damian Lillard. Like, he’s in that bucket. I'm not saying he's gonna get there right away, but the guy just had the most incredible senior season, tournament run, whatever you want to say. He's got real size, [is an] incredible athlete, elite shooter. I mean, what doesn't he do? And he just wins all the games, and that matters to some teams, and a team will pick him, and he'll end up killing it, and people will be like, 'Why wasn't higher?' I'm just telling you right now that's going to happen.”

A few mock drafts:

Gary Parrish, CBS Sports: 1. Dallas: SF Cooper Flagg, Duke; 2. San Antonio: PG Dylan Harper, Rutgers; 3. Philadelphia: SG Tre Johnson, Texas; 4. Charlotte: SG VJ Edgecome, Baylor; 5. Utah: PG Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma; 6. Washington: SF Ace Bailey, Rutgers; 7. New Orleans: SF Kon Knueppel, Duke; 8. Brooklyn: C Khaman Maluach, Duke; 9. Toronto: C Derik Queen, Maryland; 10. Phoenix: SF Carter Bryant, Arizona; 11. Portland: PF Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina; 12. Chicago: PG Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois; 13. Atlanta: PG Ego Demin, BYU; 14. San Antonio: SF Liam McNeeley, UConn; 15. Oklahoma City: C Thomas Sorber, Georgetown; 16. Memphis: SG Cedric Coward, Washington State; 17. Minnesota: PF Danny Wolf, Michigan; 18. Washington: C Joan Beringer, France; 19. Brooklyn: SG Jase Richardson, Michigan State; 20. Miami: SF Nique Clifford, Colorado State; 21. Utah: SF Hugo Gonzalez, Spain; 22. Atlanta: PF Asa Newell, Georgia; 23. New Orleans: PF Noa Essengue, France; 24. Oklahoma City: PG Nolan Traore, France; 25. ORLANDO: PG WALTER CLAYTON JR., FLORIDA; 26. Brooklyn: SF Will Riley, Illinois; 27. Brooklyn: PF Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s; 28. Boston: C Maxime Raynaud, Stanford; 29. Phoenix: PG Ben Saraf, Israel; 30. Los Angeles Clippers: C Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton

Kyle Boone, CBS: 1. Dallas: SF Cooper Flagg, Duke; 2. San Antonio: PG Dylan Harper, Rutgers; 3. Philadelphia: SF Ace Bailey, Rutgers; 4. Charlotte: SG VJ Edgecombe, Baylor; 5. Utah: SG Tre Johnson, Texas; 6. Washington: PG Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma; 7. New Orleans: SF Kon Knueppel, Duke; 8. Brooklyn: PG Kasparas Jakacionis, Illinois; 9. Toronto: C Khaman Maluach, Duke; 10. Houston: PF Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina; 11. Portland: PG Egor Demin, BYU; 12. Chicago: C Derik Queen, Maryland; 13. Atlanta: SG Jase Richardson, Michigan State; 14. San Antonio: SF Liam McNeeley, UConn; 15. Okahoma City: SG Cedric Coward, Washington State; 16. Memphis: SF Nique Clifford, Colorado State; 17. Minnesota: SF Carter Bryant, Arizona; 18. Washington: PF Danny Wolf, Michigan; 19. Brooklyn: PF Asa Newell, Georgia; 20. Miami: PG Nolan Traore, France; 21. Utah: PF Noa Essengue, France; 22. Atlanta: C Thomas Sorber, Georgetown; 23. New Orleans: C Joan Beringer, France; 24. Oklahoma City: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton; 25. ORLANDO: PG WALTER CLAYTON JR., FLORIDA; 26. Brooklyn: PG Ben Saraf, Israel; 27. Brooklyn: SF Hugo Gonzalez, Spain; 28. Boston: C Noah Penda, France; 29. Phoenix: C Maxime Raynaud, Stanford; 30. Los Angeles Clippers: C Yanic Konan Niederhauser, Penn State

Cameron Salerno, CBS: 1. Dallas: SF Cooper Flagg, Duke; 2. San Antonio: PG Dylan Harper, Rutgers; 3. Philadelphia: SF Ace Bailey, Rutgers; 4. Charlotte: SG VJ Edgecombe, Baylor; 5. Utah: SF Kon Knueppel, Duke; 6. Washington: SG Tre Johnson, Texas; 7. New Orleans: PF Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina; 8. Oklahoma: PG Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma; 9. Toronto: C Khaman Maluach, Duke; 10. Houston: PG Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois; 12. Chicago: C Derik Queen, Maryland; 13. Atlanta: SF Carter Bryant, Arizona; 14. San Antonio: SF Liam McNeeley, UConn; 15. Oklahoma City: SF Nique Clifford, Colorado State; 16. Memphis: PF Asa Newell, Georgia; 17. Minnesota: PG Egor Demin, BYU; 18. Washington: PF Danny Wolf, Michigan; 19. Brooklyn: PF Noa Essengue, France; 20. Miami; SG Jase Richardson, Michigan State; 21. UTAH: PG WALTER CLAYTON JR., FLORIDA; 22. Atlanta: C Thomas Sorber, Georgetown; 23. New Orleans: PG Nolan Traore, France; 24. Oklahoma City: C Johni Broome, Auburn; 25. Orlando: SF Will Riley, Illinois; 26. Brooklyn: C Joan Beringer, France; 27. Brooklyn: PG Ben Saraf, Israel; 28. Boston: C Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton; 29. Phoenix: SG Cedric Coward, Washington State; 30. Los Angeles Clippers: PF Yaxel Lendeborg, Washington State

Matt Norlander, CBS: 1. Dallas: SF Cooper Flagg, Duke; 2. San Antonio: PG Dylan Harper, Rutgers; 3. Philadelphia: SF Ace Bailey, Rutgers; 4. Charlotte: SG Tre Johnson, Texas; 5. Utah: SG VJ Edgecombe, Baylor; 6. Washington: SF Kon Knueppel, Duke; 7. New Orleans: PG Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois; 8. Brooklyn: C Khama Maluach, Duke; 9. Toronto: PG Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma; 10. Houston: SF Carter Bryant, Arizona; 11. C Derik Queen, Maryland; 12. Chicago: PF Noa Essengue, France; 13. Atlanta: PG Egor Demin, BYU; 14. San Antonio: PF Asa Newell, Georgia; 15. Oklahoma City: PF Danny Wolf, Michigan; 16. Memphis: PF Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina; 17. Minnesota: SG Jase Richardson, Michigan State; 18. Washington: SG Cedric Coward, Washington State; 19. Brooklyn: SF Liam McNeeley, UConn; 20. Miami: SF Nique Clifford, Colorado State; 21. UTAH: PG WALTER CLAYTON JR., FLORIDA; 22. Atlanta: C Joan Beringer, France; 23. New Orleans: SF Noah Penda, France; 24. Oklahoma City: PG Nolan Traore, France; 25. Orlando: C Thomas Sorber, Georgetown; 26. Brooklyn: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton; 27. Brooklyn: PG Ben Saraf, Israel; 28. Boston: SF Drake Powell, North Carolina; 29. Phoenix: C Maxime Raynaud, Stanford; 30. Los Angeles Clippers: SF Will Riley, Illinois

Jonathan Givony/Jeremy Woo, ESPN: 1. Dallas: SF Cooper Flagg, Duke; 2. San Antonio: PG Dylan Harper, Rutgers; 3. Philadelphia: SG VJ Edgecombe, Baylor; 4. Charlotte: SF Kon Knueppel, Duke; 5. Utah: PG Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma; 6. Washington: SF Ace Bailey, Rutgers; 7. New Orleans: SG Tre Johnson, Texas; 8. Brooklyn: C Khaman Maluach, Duke; 9. Toronto: PF Noa Essengue, France; 10. Phoenix: PF Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina; 11. Portland: SF Carter Bryant, Arizona; 12. Chicago: PG Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois; 13. Atlanta: PG Egon Demin, BYU; 14. San Antonio: C Joan Beringer, France; 15. Oklahoma City: C Derik Queen, Maryland; 16. Memphis: SG Cedric Coward, Washington State; 17. Minnesota: C Thomas Sorber, Georgetown; 18. Washington: SF Liam McNeeley, UConn; 19. Brooklyn: PF Asa Newell, Georgia; 20. MIAMI: PG WALTER CLAYTON JR., FLORIDA; 21. Utah: SF Hugo Gonzalez, Spain; 22. Brooklyn: PF Danny Wolf, Michigan; 23. New Orleans: SF Nique Clifford, Colorado State; 24. Oklahoma City: SF Will Riley, Illinois; 25. Orlando: SG Jase Richardson, Michigan State; 26. Brooklyn: PG Nolan Traore, France; 27. Brooklyn: PF Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s; 28. Boston: C Maxime Raynaud, Stanford; 29. Phoenix: C Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton; 30. Los Angeles Clippers: C Noa Penda, France

Sam Vecenie, The Athletic: 1. Dallas: SF Cooper Flagg, Duke; 2. San Antonio: PG Dylan Harper, Rutgers; 3. SG VJ Edgecombe, Baylor; 4. Charlotte: SF Kon Knueppel, Duke; 5. Utah: PG Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma; 6. Washington: SF Ace Bailey, Rutgers; 7. New Orleans: SG Tre Johnson, Texas; 8. Brooklyn: PG Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois; 9. Toronto: C Khaman Maluach, Duke; 10. Phoenix: C Derik Queen, Maryland; 11. Portland: C Noa Essengue, France; 12. Chicago: SF Carter Bryant, Arizona; 13. Atlanta: C Joan Beringer, France; 14. San Antonio: SG Cedric Coward, Washington State; 15. Oklahoma City: PF Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina; 16. Memphis: SF Liam McNeeley, UConn; 17. Minnesota: C Thomas Sorber, Georgetown; 18. Washington: PF Danny Wolf, Michigan; 19. Brooklyn: PG Egor Demin, BYU; 20. PF Asa Newell, Georgia; 21. Utah: SG Nique Clifford, Colorado State; 22. Atlanta: SF Will Riley, Illinois; 23. New Orleans: SG Jase Richardson, Michigan State; 24. Oklahoma City: SF Hugo Gonzalez, Spain; 25. ORLANDO: PG WALTER CLAYTON JR., FLORIDA; 26. Brooklyn: PG Nolan Traore, France; 27. Brooklyn: SF Drake Powell, North Carolina; 28. Boston: C Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton; 29. Phoenix: C Maxime Raynaud, Stanford; 30. Los Angeles Clippers: PF Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s

Kevin Sweeney, Sports Illustrated: 1. Dallas: SF Cooper Flagg, Duke; 2. San Antonio: PG Dylan Harper, Rutgers; 3. SG VJ Edgecombe, Baylor; 4. Charlotte: SG Tre Johnson, Texas; 5. Utah: SF Kon Knueppel, Duke; 6. Washington: SF Ace Bailey, Rutgers; 7. New Orleans: PG Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma; 8. Brooklyn: C Khaman Maluach, Duke; 9. Toronto: C Noa Essengue, France; 10. Phoenix: PF Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina; 11. Portland: PG Egor Demin, BYU; 12. Chicago: C Derik Queen, Maryland; 13. Atlanta: PG Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois; 14. San Antonio: C Joan Beringer, France; 15. Oklahoma City: SF Carter Bryant, Arizona; 16. Memphis: SG Cedric Coward, Washington State; 17. Minnesota: PF Asa Newell, Georgia; 18. Washington: C Thomas Sorber, Georgetown; 19. Brooklyn: SF Will Riley, Illinois; 20. Miami: SG Jase Richardson, Michigan State; 21. Utah: PF Danny Wolf, Michigan; 22. Brooklyn: SF Liam McNeeley, UConn; 23. New Orleans: SG Nique Clifford, Colorado State; 24. Oklahoma City: SF Hugo Gonzalez, Spain; 25. ORLANDO: PG WALTER CLAYTON JR., FLORIDA; 26. Brooklyn: PG Nolan Traore, France; 27. Brooklyn: PF Rasheer Fleming, Saint Joseph’s; 28. Boston: C Noa Penda, France; 29. Phoenix: C Maxime Raynaud, Stanford; 30. Los Angeles Clippers: Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton