The point spread shrinks; Can the Gators spring the upset over LSU?

(Photo by Chris Spears)

The point spread, which began on Sunday night with LSU as a 9.5-point favorite, is down to 6.5 points as of Friday evening. Money is moving Florida’s way in Las Vegas. Does that mean the people who set the spreads are thinking the Gators are capable of springing the upset on LSU for a second straight year?

A year ago LSU came to Gainesville 4.5-point favorites against a 4-5 Florida team that was teetering on the verge of a fourth consecutive losing season. The Gators scored 17 points in the second half while the defense, led by a relentless pass rush that put Garrett Nussmeier on the ground six times, held the Tigers to a pair of field goals. With less than five minutes to go, Jadan Baugh broke loose for a 55-yard touchdown run to seal the deal for the Gators.

That win was the catalyst of a 4-game winning streak to end the season as Florida finished 8-5. Three days shy of 10 months later, the Gators are once again underdogs and this time on the road. This LSU team (2-0) is ranked No. 3 in the nation and has national media all but penciling the Tigers in on their College Football Playoff dance cards.

There are two intriguing questions going into tonight’s game in Baton Rouge (7:30 p.m., ABC). First, are the Gators (1-1) as bad as they seemed last week when they blew a perfectly winnable game to lose, 18-16, to unranked South Florida? Second, is LSU as good as a 2-0 record would indicate given the lack of productivity on offense and the two dismal offenses they’ve faced?

The Gators haven’t looked anything like the ranked team they were when the season began. The offense has lacked explosiveness and the defense hasn’t been able to pressure the passer (just 2 sacks so far). Quarterback DJ Lagway has shown the rust from missing spring football and all but a few days of August. His throws have been tentative at best and he seems hesitant to throw the ball downfield. Is it playcalling or that he doesn’t yet trust his arm to deliver the ball on time? The Gators could have a great running game with Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson if only the O-line could get its act together. Over on defense, the Gators couldn’t get off the field against South Florida.

Meanwhile, there is LSU, which has scored only 40 points in two games. Last week the Tigers struggled to put points on the board against Louisiana Tech from Conference USA. Nussmeier, who some think could be the first quarterback off the board when the NFL drafts next spring, is averaging only 5.9 yards per attempt, which is really bad. His issues can be pinpointed to an offensive line that is protecting him about as well as they did last year at The Swamp. Nussmeier is having to unload in a hurry because he’s got pass rushers in his face and there is no place for the running backs to go (3.63 yards per carry) because the O-line can’t run block.

So, can the Gators experience an onfield revival tonight in Baton Rouge? Can they give Lagway time to throw and can he zip the ball downfield to receivers who have the speed to separate from LSU defenders? Can they get Baugh and Jackson to the second level where they can do some serious damage running the ball? Can the edge rushers spend the day in the LSU backfield? Can Caleb Banks do to LSU this year what he did last year? Can the secondary keep the LSU receivers in front of them? And, of course, can Trey Smack make his field goals and can Rocco Underwood deliver a chest-high snap to punter Tommy Doman?

It is a tall order for the Gators, who need to play loose yet focused. They’ve heard all the noise about Billy Napier’s job being on the line again. They can allow that to motivate them into playing up to their talent level or they can allow it to be a distraction.

A motivated Florida team has the ability to make life miserable for LSU coach Brian Kelly. A Florida team that lacks focus and passion will fall to 1-2.

The pick: Something about this game is screaming upset even if LSU is 20-2 at Tiger Stadium since Brian Kelly became the head coach. The Gators figure out a way to win it and send Tiger fans statewide finding the nearest bridge to jump off into alligator-infested waters.

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 6 Georgia (2-0, 0-0 SEC) at No. 15 Tennessee (2-0, 0-0 SEC): Georgia was particularly uninspiring last week against D1AA Austin Peay while the Vols were mowing down D1AA East Tennessee State. Now that the paycheck warmup games are in the past it’s time for some serious tackle football. Georgia is a mere 3.5-point favorite, which is shaky. The Vols know if they win this one it might be difficult for them not to make the College Football Playoff thanks to SEC schedule-makers. Even if the Vols lose they might find it difficult to win fewer than 10 games. Georgia’s passing game has been quite pedestrian. Do the Vols load the box and dare Gunner Stockton to throw? Will Georgia simply try to slug it out on the ground and play some defense? An ugly game favors Georgia. The pick: Georgia

UTEP (1-1) at No. 7 Texas (1-1): Texas is favored by 40.5 points. The question is why so few? It might be 40-0 at the half. Arch Manning is going to look like his uncles, but consider the competition … and remember this. The Longhorns get Sam Houston State next week. They don’t play their first SEC game until Florida the first Saturday in October. The pick: Texas

Vanderbilt (2-0, 0-0 SEC) at No. 11 South Carolina (2-0, 0-0 SEC): A year ago the Gamecocks beat Vandy by three TDs in Nashville. This year it’s at Willy-Brice and the Gamecocks are favored by only 3.5 points … not touchdowns. Vandy is determined to turn Saturday night in Columbia into a giant chicken fry. Vandy is playing like an improved team while South Carolina’s offense hasn’t figured things out. Shane Beamer needs to use a Steve Spurrier line in his pregame speech, urging the Gamecocks to be less sucky. Vandy, meanwhile, just blew out Virginia Tech in Blacksburg with an explosive passing game and a solid running game. This has upset written all over it.   The pick: Vanderbilt

No. 13 Oklahoma (2-0) at Temple (2-0): Oklahoma is fresh off a win over Michigan and a 24.5-point fave over Shirley Temple, which has beaten two nobodys. This is a warmup game for the Sooners, who start SEC play next week at home against Auburn. The only dangers for the Sooners are overconfidence and that QB John Mateer might get hurt. The pick: Oklahoma

No. 16 Texas A&M (2-0) at No. 8 Notre Dame (0-1): Two teams that desperately needs this one. Notre Dame can’t afford an 0-2 start while the Aggies still have an SEC schedule to navigate, so an out-of-conference loss could keep them out of the playoff. If there is an advantage, it’s to Notre Dame which has had two weeks to fix what went wrong in the season opening loss to Miami not to mention home field. The Aggies have the better quarterback in Marcel Reed, the better O-line and the better rushing attack. On paper they have everything going for them. Still, it’s Notre Dame in South Bend where the Irish are 6.5-point favorites. The pick: Notre Dame

Arkansas (2-0, 0-0 SEC) at No. 17 Ole Miss (2-0, 1-0 SEC): The Razorbacks come into the game on the heels of two easy wins, both of them over teams that stood no chance whatsoever. Now they start the SEC portion of the season on the road against an Ole Miss team that already has a road win in league play. QB Austin Simmons has been in a boot all week. His health and the Rebels ability to keep Arky QB Tayven Green in the pocket will be the keys. The Rebels are 6.5-point favorites. Seems like it should be more. Could be white knuckles to the very end. The pick: Ole Miss

Wisconsin (2-0) at No. 19 Alabama (1-1): Having not only lost to but been dominated by unranked Florida State, Alabama as a 20.5-point favorite seems rather odd. Wisconsin doesn’t have a quality win to its name, but the Badgers do have eight sacks already and they’ll be going against a Bama O-line that struggled to run the ball and protect the passer against FSU (3 sacks, 5 QB hits). Alabama should win this game, but it has the feel of something closer than three touchdowns. Should the Tide lose, Kalen DeBoer will be the least popular person in the state. The pick: Alabama

South Alabama (1-1) at No. 24 Auburn (2-0): Auburn is favored by 24.5 points. Not only do the Tigers have to win this one, they have to play well because a gauntlet of (at) No. 13 Oklahoma, (at) No. 16 Texas A&M, No. 6 Georgia and No. 25 Missouri follows. QB Jackson Arnold has to have another good game throwing the ball. South Alabama QBs better get used to what might be the best pass rush in the country because it will be a long day in the pocket. The pick: Auburn

Louisiana (1-1) at No. 25 Missouri (2-0): QB Beau Pribula looks better than everyone thought he would when he transferred from Penn State. The Mizzou offense is far better than expected thanks to the play of the QB. The defense still needs to play better but it won’t be challenged by the Ragin Cajuns. Mizzou is a 27.5-point favorite. It will be a shock if they don’t cover.  The pick: Missouri

Alcorn State (0-2) at Mississippi State (2-0): This is a dial-a-score game for the Bulldogs, who get Northern Illinois next week. Give them a 4-0 start and all they’ll need is to figure a way to win two of the last eight for a bowl game. Who woulda thought that? The pick: Mississippi State

Eastern Michigan (0-2) at Kentucky (1-1, 0-1 SEC): Eastern Michigan lost to Long Island University last week. Yes, that LIU. That Kentucky is only a 26.5-point favorite tells you just how bad the UK offense is. Kentucky will win but it’s going to be ugly and it will be six weeks before UK has a chance to win another game. The pick: Kentucky