The Road to Atlanta: Breaking down Florida's 2021 schedule game-by-game

Can the Gators return to Atlanta—and a likely meeting with the Tide—once again? Photo Credit: Matt Pendleton

It must have felt like a rock in the pit of their stomachs when the Florida Gators left Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta last December after their 52-46 loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. That game was a war and while there is no disgrace in being the only team to stay within a touchdown of the eventual national champs, this was a game the Gators could have won and they know it.

What Dan Mullen has to hope is that the 2021 edition of the Gators remember all-too-well that three or four TV mistakes separated them from winning the SEC last year. Will the closeness of that game fuel an inner fire that can take the Gators on the Road to Atlanta for a second straight year? No one in the media believes Florida can get back to Atlanta. Once again, they’ve all bought into the annual Georgia hype. If championships were decided by opinion, on paper or by recruiting classes, then Georgia would be a shoo-in to make the national championship game every single year and the Gators would be one of those nice teams that wins a lot of games but never the big one.

Fortunately, the games are decided on the field and while there are obstacles and speed bumps along the way, there is a clear path for the Gators to navigate the Road to Atlanta for a chance to deal with the unfinished business of 2020. It is a 12-game schedule that awaits the Gators, but to get back to Atlanta, it is the eight SEC games that count. Of those eight, three will almost certainly decide their fate – Alabama in The Swamp on September 18; LSU in Tiger Stadium on October 16; and Georgia in Jacksonville on October 30. If the Gators hold serve in the other five games, they can punch their ticket to Atlanta if they win two of those three as long as one of the two is Georgia.

Can the Gators pull it off? Can they go 11-1 because that’s what it is almost certainly going to take to repeat as champions of the SEC East and make it to Atlanta for a chance to win Florida’s first SEC title since 2008.

Here is a game-by-game breakdown of the 2021 schedule:

GAME ONE: SEPTEMBER 4, FLORIDA ATLANTIC

The last time Dan Mullen and the Gators had a close encounter with Willie Taggart was 2019, Taggart’s second year at Florida State. That didn’t end well (Gators won 40-17), nor did the 2018 game in Tallahassee (41-14 Florida win). Taggart is now the head coach at Florida Atlantic, where he lost more games (4) in nine games than Lane Kiffin did (3) the year before in 14. The five wins were against teams that won a combined 14 games. But, it was a COVID season so maybe it’s unfair to point out that the Owls went from 23rdnationally in total offense in 2019 to 112th in 2020 running Taggart’s Gulf Coast Offense. There is every good chance the Owls will be just as bad, maybe even worse in 2021 even with Taggart hiring Ed Warriner, formerly the O-line coach at Ohio State and Michigan, and Michael Johnson, whose last college gig was in 2019 as the Mississippi State wide receivers coach, to coordinate the offense.

The skinny: This is a paycheck game. FAU can bus up to The Swamp and save a ton of money that can be used to pay for all those non-revenue scholarships. The Owls are a second tier team in Conference USA, which ranks only slightly ahead of the MAC as the weakest of the 10 Division I leagues, so they shouldn’t be much of a match for the Gators. It’s probably the perfect kind of opener for Mullen to gauge the progress of Emory Jones, who gets the first start at QB of his Florida career. Consider this an upset if the Gators win by fewer than four touchdowns.

GAME TWO: SEPTEMBER 11, AT USF

Jeff Scott had this cushy job at Clemson, where he was the co-offensive coordinator who got to call the plays for Trevor Lawrence. Needless to say, USF didn’t have a quarterback last year who could do a Lawrence impersonation nor is there one this year. The O-line, running backs and wide receivers weren’t exactly Clemson caliber either. The Bulls went 1-8 last year, losing to all eight Division I opponents they faced. The Bulls ranked 90th in total offense in 2020, 94th in total defense. They will be better this year but improved enough to give the Gators anything more than a good quarter or two at Raymond James Stadium? Nine starters return on the offensive side including four linemen. Former North Carolina transfer Cade Fortin, who played only two games due to a shoulder injury in 2020, is the expected starter at QB. Over on defense, Scott brought in six transfers from Power Five conferences to see if he could turn that group respectable.

The skinny: The Bulls will be better in 2021 than they were last year. Better than FAU, Florida’s first game opponent? Mullen needs USF to be better because Big Bad Bama comes to town the next week. He doesn’t need anyone to get injured, but he doesn’t need the Bulls to just lay down and die either. He needs them to be competitive enough that he can determine if progress was made from week one to week two. This is the kind of game that UF might run for 300 or more yards against a rather weak 3-man front and linebackers that tend to reach the hole a split second too late. Dameon Pierce could have a monster game pounding it between the tackles. Other than injuries, Mullen’s greatest fear is that the Gators will be looking ahead to Alabama and not focusing on disposing of a team they should beat by at least 25 points.

GAME THREE: SEPTEMBER 18, ALABAMA

As a head coach, Dan Mullen is 0-10 against Nick Saban. It could have been 1-9 if not for three rather stupid and ill-timed defensive penalties in last year’s SEC Championship Game which the Gators lost 52-46. That was the closest any team came to beating Alabama last year. Alabama will come to The Swamp with what amounts to a brand new offense as eight starters including the Heisman Trophy winner and the record-breaking QB must be replaced among others. The defense is loaded with perhaps as many as five first round draft picks. They may have to carry the load if redshirt freshman quarterback Bryce Young takes awhile to figure things out. Since last year’s crowds were limited to 25 percent capacity, Young has never quarterbacked a game in the kind of atmosphere he will be subjected to in The Swamp. Will he be able to focus when the decibels reach the level of a 747 taking off? And will an offensive line with four new starters be able to function without a few false starts? Unless Alabama loses its season opener to Miami or plays poorly, the Crimson Tide will come to Gainesville favored by a touchdown or more.

The skinny: This is the first of what seems to be a three-game gauntlet the Gators have to run if they intend to make a run at a second straight SEC East championship. To win, the Gators will have to eliminate turnovers, silly penalties, get a good game from the O-line whether it’s running the ball or protecting Jones, and Todd Grantham’s defense will have to get the Gators off the field. If the defense had just come up with one or two stops last year, the Gators could have beaten Alabama. If they can hold Alabama to three or fewer touchdowns, the Gators can win this game. That’s a tall order, but that is what it’s going to take. Win and the Gators will vault into the top five nationally. Lose a close one and the season’s not over. Get blown out and it might be a bad omen.

GAME FOUR: SEPTEMBER 25, TENNESSEE

Josh Heupel brings his no-huddle, run plays at breakneck pace offense to Tennessee, which had the 102ndranked offense in the country last year under the departed genius, Jeremy Pruitt. An exodus began even before Heupel was named the new HBC. More than 30 players left for greener pastures, leaving Heupel with nine returning starters and not much in the way of depth. Either Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker or Michigan transfer Joe Milton figures to start at QB. Both are an upgrade from last year, but who will tote the rock? Who’s going to catch the ball? There aren’t any stud receivers returning and last year’s two leading runners will be starting this year at Oklahoma and North Carolina respectively. Linebacker went from strength to major weakness when all four of last year’s starters hit the transfer portal. Even if Heupel can wear teams down with his fast-paced offense, the defense doesn’t look promising at all.

The skinny: The Vols have to hope the Gators have a hangover from the Alabama game, whether that’s from celebrating an upset win long into the following week or the disappointment of getting taken to the mat by Nick Saban. From a pure talent perspective, Florida has it all over the Vols. Last year’s 31-19 win over UT wasn’t nearly as close as the score might indicate, and while Florida is missing Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney from last year’s team, the Vols are missing much, much more. This is another game the Gators should be able to run the ball for big yardage. If there is no hangover from the Alabama game, Florida will win by two or more touchdowns.

GAME FIVE: OCTOBER 2, AT KENTUCKY

This is a game to circle. Kentucky has this nasty habit of bringing teams down to their level and turning games into a rock fight. The Wildcats have a huge, experienced offensive line led by All-SEC right tackle Darian Kinnard and one of the nation’s top power runners in Chris Rodriguez, who ran for 785 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 6.6 per carry in 2020. UK’s problem in the past few years hasn’t been running the ball but throwing it. That’s why Liam Coen is the new offensive coordinator and why Penn State transfer Will Levis will be the quarterback. For UK to be much more than a 6-6 or 7-5 team they have to throw the ball better to take the pressure off that running game. But don’t think the Wildcats will stray too far from ground and pound. They’ll need to control the clock and keep a defense that returns only two of the front seven starters off the field. If Kentucky can get a lead and a couple of stops, the Wildcats can slow the game down, making it very difficult to mount a comeback. That makes this a very dangerous game for the Gators.

The skinny: A Florida win comes down to two things: (1) The Gators can’t let Kentucky control the clock with the running game; and (2) it will be imperative for Florida to get the lead to force the Wildcats to throw the football far more than they want. This is not a talented Kentucky defense, but when the running game gets going the Wildcats can keep the defense off the field for protracted periods of time. The big guys in the middle – Antonio Valentino, Daquan Newkirk and Gervon Dexter – have to be gap sound and Florida’s linebackers have to bring down UK runners with the initial hit. Over on the offensive side, because Kentucky doesn’t have much returning in the way of pass rush, the Gators should be able to light up the UK secondary. This is the kind of game that Justin Shorter and Florida’s big, fast receivers should dominate. If the Gators can stuff the run, it’s a two TD win for UF. If Kentucky can run the ball and control the clock, it will be white knuckles.

GAME SIX: OCTOBER 9, VANDERBILT

Vandy logic. The Commodores have had a long, dry spell on offense, so they fired Derek Mason, a former defensive coordinator who was clueless when it came to putting points on the scoreboard. So, what did the braintrust in Nashville do? They hired another defensive coordinator. Clark Lea, formerly of Notre Dame, is also a Vandy alum and he’s charged with resurrecting a program that has lost its way since James Franklin took the Commodores to three straight bowl games, which was a miracle of almost feeding the 5,000 proportions. They’re so excited about Lea at Vandy that they’re going to give him new locker rooms. That’s swell, but in the meantime Lea has to go to battle this year with the remnants of a team that did an oh-fer 2020. Last year Vandy ranked 110th nationally in total offense, 121st in total defense. Clark Lea might impart a new attitude and a fresh approach to the long haul, but for 2021, it will be like bringing a butter knife to a gunfight.

The skinny: The greatest obstacle for the Gators when they face Vanderbilt will be between their ears. Sure, it’s Vandy and the Commodores are going to stink this year, but that’s no excuse to come to The Swamp lacking focus and looking ahead to the road trip to Baton Rouge the next week. There is no reason the Gators can’t hang 35 or more points on the Commodores and there is no reason Vandy should score more than a touchdown or two. That is, unless the Gators leave their game in the locker room, therefore turning what should be a blowout into one of those go ugly early type of games. This will mark the midpoint of the 2021 season. Will the Gators be 6-0 or 5-1 heading into Baton Rouge?

GAME SEVEN: OCTOBER 16, AT LSU

This is the second of the three-game gauntlet that likely determines if the Gators are contenders or pretenders. The Gators have lost the last two games to LSU, both of them winnable. In 2019, Florida had the Tigers on the ropes only to collapse in the fourth quarter to a team that went on to run the table and win the national championship. Last year, playing in the fog and in a partially filled Swamp, the Gators shot themselves in the feet so many times that LSU came away with a highly improbable win. The Tigers finished 2020 with a 5-5 record, which prompted Coach O to fire both his offensive and defensive coordinators. Armed with new people calling the plays and the usual impressive talent-filled two-deep, Coach O believes LSU will contend for the SEC West championship. Max Johnson, who was impressive in the Tigers’ win in Gainesville last year, will be the QB, operating behind a line that returns four starters and throwing to two of the faster receivers in the SEC in Kayshon Boutte and Jaray Jenkins. The good news is nine starters return on defense. That’s also the bad news since that defense gave up 35 points, 323 air yards and finished 124thnationally. For LSU to contend in the SEC West and to come away with a win over Florida, the Tigers are going to have to play substantially better on the defensive end and pray that Johnson doesn’t go through a sophomore slump at QB.

The skinny: Saturday nights at Tiger Stadium can be an absolute nightmare because it seems half the state of Louisiana descends upon Bator Rouge a good two days prior to the game, then spends the next 48 hours getting liquored up and ready to turn Tiger Stadium into an absolute zoo. Saturday nights in Baton Rouge are not for the faint of heart, but there is a really good chance this game will be played in the afternoon since it’s the biggest game on the October 16 agenda and CBS is almost certain to make it their 3:30 showcase game. LSU in the daytime is a totally different animal. Day or night, Florida can win this game. It will come down to pass defense on the part of both teams. The Gators have to get pressure on Max Johnson and eliminate those 17-18 yard darts that turn into 30-yard gains. When UF has the ball, it will be a matter of keeping the Tigers off stride by getting Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson outside the box where they have the option to run or throw. This game sets up big for Justin Shorter, who is a total mismatch. Whoever plays the best pass defense and commits the fewest turnovers is going to win.

GAME EIGHT: OCTOBER 30, GEORGIA IN JACKSONVILLE

On paper, this is Kirby Smart’s best team at Georgia. Of course, we said the same thing every year since 2017. Expectations are once again through the roof and all because of JT Daniels. He’s supposed to be Georgia’s latest Moses who will take the Bulldogs to the Promised Land. Of course, they said the same thing about Jacob Eason (transferred, NFL now), Jake Fromm (left early for the NFL), Justin Fields (transferred, first round NFL pick) and they were saying the same thing about Wake Forest transfer Jamie Newman last year before he opted out of 2020. He was being hyped as a Heisman finalist by all the preseason mags but he was being outplayed in practice by the likes of Stetson Bennett IV and the now departed D’Wan Mathis, which led to the COVID excuse when he walked away. So here we are in 2021 and Georgia has it all, including this year’s preseason Heisman finalist in Daniels. The Bulldogs have a two-deep populated by former 5-star and 4-star recruits, former Florida HBC Will Muschamp helping Dan Lanning scheme the defense and offensive coordinator Todd Monken believing Daniels is the right guy at the right time in the right place. There is also a schedule that has two obstacles and a possible speed bump. One obstacle is Clemson in the season opener, but that isn’t an SEC game. The possible speed bump is at Auburn October 9, a place where Georgia has lost three times since 2010. But, with a win at Auburn the Bulldogs could easily arrive in Jacksonville with an unblemished SEC record for a winner-take-all game for the East Division title.

The skinny: Georgia is the final leg of the three-game gauntlet that should decide Florida’s fate in the SEC East. UF can afford to lose one of the three as long as the Gators beat Georgia. If the Gators lose to Alabama and LSU, however, the East race will almost certainly be over even before October 30. The Gators lit up Georgia’s secondary last year and the UF defense, which had problems getting off the field most of the year, showed up and played its best game. The Gators won’t be one-dimensional offensively this year and the defense should be vastly improved. Will that be enough to score the win that could possibly send the Gators to Atlanta for a second straight year? The Gators won’t have the weight of expectation on their shoulders. They’re under the radar for the most part. Georgia? It’s another national championship or bust year.

GAME NINE: NOVEMBER 6, AT SOUTH CAROLINA

Well, the Gators don’t have Will Muschamp to kick around anymore. At least not at South Carolina. The new HBC is Shane Beamer, who has never been a head coach or even an offensive or defensive coordinator. He has inherited a team that went 2-8 last year when it had problems on both sides of the ball. South Carolina was 96th nationally in total offense, 105th in total defense. The Gamecocks do have Kevin Harris, last year’s leading rusher in the SEC, and four returning starters on the O-line to block for him. If Beamer is smart he will try the ground and pound approach to shorten games and keep what should be another bad defense off the field. With Luke Doty out indefinitely with a fractured bone in his foot, the quarterback will be D1AA transfer Jason Brown, who hasn’t played since 2019. The schedule includes Georgia, Texas A&M, Auburn and Clemson in addition to Florida.

The skinny: From a strictly personnel aspect, Florida is four or five touchdowns better than the Gamecocks. About the only thing that will keep it close is if the Gators have to deal with a post-Georgia hangover. As long as the Gators come out focused and well-prepared, they will win this game with relative ease. Even if they don’t, the Gators will win.

GAME TEN: NOVEMBER 13, SAMFORD

Samford comes to The Swamp holding its cardboard “Will take a beating for a paycheck” sign. The Bulldogs figure to be a real factor in the Southern Conference race, largely because of senior quarterback Liam Welch, the preseason choice for SoCon Player of the Year. Samford coach Chris Hatcher played at Valdosta State under Hal Mumme where his offensive coordinator was Mike Leach, which explains the start throwing the moment the bus stops philosophy. It works well in the SoCon but it’s not going to get the Bulldogs a win in The Swamp. They’ll take their beating, cash their paycheck and hope nobody gets hurt for the D1AA playoffs.

The skinny: These are the kind of games that can derail momentum late in a season. You’re supposed to win big. You’re supposed to play all the kids. You’re supposed to get some of the starters rested up for the final push. But sometimes you can’t get your mojo back. That’s what has to be avoided here. This should be dial-a-score for the Gators who still have an SEC game and FSU remaining on the schedule.

GAME ELEVEN: NOVEMBER 20, AT MISSOURI

As we saw at SEC Media Days, Mizzou HBC Eli Drinkwitz talks a good game. He caught the SEC by surprise last year when he went 5-5 against an SEC-only schedule, but that was in a pandemic year when nothing was normal. Now comes the hard part for Drinkwitz and the Tigers. Winning with things back to normal and no Larry Rountree III to run the ball or linebacker Nick Bolton to roam sideline to sideline making tackles. Drinkwitz has a QB in Connor Bazelac, who made giant strides last year. Improving an offense that averaged only 26.7 points per game falls largely on his shoulders. The problem is a defense that gave up 148 points and 1,627 yards in the final three games. Even with only 12 returning starters, the schedule strength is so weak overall that it might be very difficult for Mizzou to win fewer than eight games. They could go 8-4 and still not be a very good football team.

The skinny: Late November in Columbia can be a problem. It has been known to snow and cold, wet, rainy days are no picnic. If the weather holds up and the Gators are healthy, this should be a solid Florida win. Even with a team that sometimes struggled to move the ball on the ground, the Gators still ran for 169 yards on Missouri last year. The Gators should be able to run for 200-plus and throw for 200-plus in this game.

GAME TWELVE: NOVEMBER 27, FLORIDA STATE

These aren’t Bobby Bowden’s Seminoles. They aren’t Jimbo Fisher’s either. Things were already heading south when Jimbo took the money and caught the next private plane out of Tallahassee for Aggieland. Since then it has been a Humpty Dumpty experience for the Seminoles. It took less than two seasons for the boosters to run Willie Taggart out of town. Now Mike Norvell is in charge of putting all the pieces back together again. He went 3-6 last year with a defense that finished 107th nationally and an offense that sputtered like a Yugo in need of a tuneup. The thought in Tallahassee is last year’s 3-6 was rock bottom so there is no place to go but up. FSU should be improved but there are only four games the Seminoles will be favored to win, so the Seminoles will have to figure out a way to steal two or three others to be bowl eligible for the first time since 2017. The Seminoles have an inspirational leader in UCF transfer McKenzie Milton to help the long haul back. That he’s even able to play is a true miracle. If he can help them win a few games, even better. But, 6-6 or 7-5 is the likely ceiling and that might be too high.

The skinny: The rivalry was placed on hold due to COVID-19 last year so it’s back on the schedule once again. FSU won’t be as bad as last year, but the Seminoles are still a couple years away from being relevant again. Should the Gators come into this game as SEC East champs, they will have to avoid looking ahead to the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. This isn’t a conference game so it doesn’t affect Atlanta, but it’s still FSU and that alone means it’s important. Mullen has never lost to FSU. He was 5-0 as Urban Meyer’s offensive coordinator and is 2-0 as the HBC at UF.