The Soothsayer: Gators will handle adversity and bounce back big

Adversity and football go hand in hand. You can't have one without the other, not in this game. Everybody gets knocked down. It's how teams react after taking a punch to the gut or a fist to the face that separates the good teams from the bad ones. And, even though it's just midyear and there is plenty of football to be played, it's never too early to have a game that separates contenders from pretenders.

So what are the Florida Gators (4-1, 2-1 SEC)? Are they contenders? Those wins over Auburn and Ole Miss had the whole wide world thinking so. Why some folks were daring to think the Gators could challenge for the national championship after those back-to-back showings. Or are the Gators pretenders? That loss to Missouri was dog's butt ugly. Florida left CoMo looking like a team that might struggle to get to seven wins, not like one that could make the College Football Playoff and win a game or two.

South Carolina (2-3, 0-3 SEC) comes to Gainesville Saturday (12:45 p.m., SEC Network) in desperate need of a win to save head ball coach Shane Beamer from being skewered and rotisseried over an oakwood fire. The Gamecocks are likely to show up hair on fire and ready to spring an upset over the nation's No. 16 team. How Florida responds will tell us a lot about what to expect the second half of the season.

The Gamecocks' problems have everything to do with fourth quarters. They play well the first three quarters and then fade off into the sunset once the clock starts ticking on the fourth quarter. Finishing games has been a South Carolina problem ever since Beamer became the head coach and it is why the South Carolina faithful are thinking it might be time to pull the plug. That would hurt badly because everybody loves Shane Beamer. They just don't think he's good enough to win championships.

But, is anyone good enough to win championships at South Carolina? Steve Spurrier had a four-year stretch in which he won 41 games at South Carolina but even he couldn't win the SEC. The only conference championship in South Carolina history dates back to 1970 when Paul Dietzel led the Gamecocks to the ACC title with Tommy Suggs at QB. There have been more misses than hits since then and none of the hits have resulted in championships.

Meanwhile, there is Florida. How do the Gators respond? Do they bounce back by playing ferociously, like a team with plenty to prove? Or, do they slog through a game that is expected to be played in wet, windy conditions like a team that was exposed by Missouri?

There is a lot of talk that Mizzou gave the world a blueprint for how to stop Buster Faulkner's offense. Are you buying that? It did indeed look like the Tigers saw hints in the way the Gators call their plays because there was nowhere to run and nowhere to throw the ball. The same team that was so unstoppable against Ole Miss was rendered helpless and hopeless. Was it an aberration, just one of those games when one team put it all together and dominated, or a sign of things to come?

The thought here is it was a case of Missouri giving a peak performance at home against a young Florida team that still has things to figure out. With Texas in Austin looming next week and Georgia after that, the Gators are every bit as desperate to win this as South Carolina. Taking a two-game losing streak into games against the nation's No. 1 and No. 2 teams is a formula for a lovely stay in Birmingham or Shreveport in December, places where if you lose your bowl game you're required to stay an extra week as punishment.

This is a chance to make a statement about handling adversity, one that will have a ripple effect on some recruiting decisions. Winning this one is every bit as much about righting the ship this season as it is for having the talent to win big in the future. The Soothsayer forecasts an exceptional Florida response.

The Sayer Says Sooth!:Buster Faulkner will go with a throw early approach to get the lead and then pound away in the fourth quarter with Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark. Expect big things from Vernell Brown III and a much better effort throwing the ball from Aaron Philo. The Gators are 12.5-point favorites. They will win by at least two touchdowns, maybe more.

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER

No. 1 Texas (4-0, 1-0 SEC) vs. Oklahoma (2-2, 0-1 SEC) in Dallas:Since halftime of the Ohio State game, the Texas defense has allowed only one offensive touchdown. The Longhorns don't need much offense to win games, not with Will Muschamp calling the shots for that defense. Oklahoma has a fine defense, too, but the problem isn't the defense. It's the offense, which has turned the ball over 10 times so far. Can the Sooners play error-free? Doubtful. Highly doubtful. Oklahoma is good enough defensively to keep it close, but it lacks the firepower to win. When the dust settles after this one, Brent Venables is going to have to make decisions about his quarterback and his offensive coordinator. Midseason changes are never good but sometimes entirely necessary.The Sayer Says Sooth!:The Texas defense will win this game. Now, if Arch Manning shows up and has a good game against what might be the best defense he's going to see all year, folks might start believing the Longhorns have what it takes to win a national title. Texas will win, the only question is by how much?

No. 2 Georgia (5-0, 3-0 SEC) at No. 6 Alabama (5-0, 3-0 SEC):Hurricane Isaias is going to have a big say in the outcome of the nation's marquee game. Much depends on where the hurricane makes landfall. As of Friday morning there are no plans to reschedule the game but that is subject to change if the eye of the storm passes directly over Tuscaloosa. Current forecasts call for plenty of rain and seriously windy conditions. So who does a slippery, muddy field and winds that affect the passing and kicking games favor the most? There is a lot of sentiment in favor of Georgia, which many experts claim is the nation's most complete team, but this is the first good team the Bulldogs have faced? When bitten Alabama bites back. Does Keelon Russell have the poise to deal with the weather and the Georgia defense? Can Gunner Stockton complete enough passes in bad conditions to keep the Bama defense honest? If this game were played in Athens, Georgia would be favored by 10 or more points. In Tuscaloosa it's Alabama a shaky 1.5-point favorite. As painful as it is to admit it, Georgia seems like the better team here because Stockton just doesn't make mistakes.The Sayer Says Sooth!:White knuckles and chest clutching. Both teams better hope it doesn't come down to a field goal to win because of the sloppy field and wind. Georgia has better mudders and gets the win.

No. 9 Ole Miss (3-1, 1-1 SEC) at Vanderbilt (3-2, 0-2 SEC):Ole Miss has had a week to recover from the Florida debacle. Good news for the Rebel faithful. Bad news for Vandy. This isn't the Vandy of old that would just roll over and die at the thought of dealing with a QB like Trinidad Chambliss, but the Commodores don't have the personnel to make this competitive for more than a half. At the half it might be close. By game's end it won't be. Chambliss needs a huge game here to reassert himself as a Heisman fave and the Ole Miss defense needs to show up and play four quarters of decent football. The Rebels are 9.5-point favorites. It won't be that close.The Sayer Says Sooth!:Does Ole Miss sit Kewan Lacy to save him for next week's game with Mizzou or risk another injury to his sore shoulder by playing him? That's probably the biggest question for this game. Either way, Ole Miss moves to 4-1 and reignites the playoff chatter.

No. 10 LSU (4-1, 1-1 SEC) at Kentucky (4-0, 2-1 SEC):This feels a lot like it did three weeks ago when Alabama came to Lexington. Oh, but the Big Blue Nation was thumping its chest and thinking an upset was brewing that day only to be put in its place by the Crimson Tide. On the heels of last week's startling comeback win to beat South Carolina, UK is feeling it has the stuff that upsets are made of with LSU coming to town. By the end of the first quarter the giddiness will be gone and a hard charging reality will have set in among the UK faithful. When Kentucky can dominate the lines of scrimmage it can knock off teams like LSU. Until then, it's take your beating like a man. LSU leads the nation in sacks and the offense is starting to find its happy place. As long as Sam Leavitt remembers to complete passes to his team instead of the guys whose jerseys don't match the one he's wearing, LSU isn't going to have much trouble.The Sayer Says Sooth!:The national perception is that Lane Kiffin is college football's arch-villain, but he's also a pretty darn good football coach. He's got a team that is really starting to figure things out as Kentucky is about to find out. Kentucky goes into this game thinking upset. It will leave this one a lost ball in the tall grass.

Texas A&M (3-2, 1-2 SEC) at No. 14 Missouri (4-1, 1-1 SEC):Missouri likes to think it got the 800-pound gorilla off its back last week when the Tigers not only took down a top ten team, but did it in such convincing fashion. One reason the Tigers blew the doors off the then No. 8 Gators had to do with the venue. Missouri at home is indeed a Tiger. Missouri on the road has a habit of turning into Garfield. Eli Drinkwitz is 36-9 overall in Columbia since becoming the head coach at Mizzou, 22-4 since 2023. The big question for Saturday's close encounter with the Aggies has to do with Drinkwitz getting his team's feet back on the ground after beating the Gators by 28. Five Missouri defenders including stud linebacker Robert Woodyard are listed as questionable for the game and over on offense, left tackle Cayden Green could miss the game. In College Station it would be easy to like the Aggies to win this one, but even beat up, Missouri is formidable at home. If the Tigers keep Austin Simmons upright, he will have a big day throwing the ball. The Aggies have only five sacks all year. If they can't get to Simmons they won't win this one.The Sayer Says Sooth!:The Aggies haven't been the same since Miami did a number on them in last year's College Football Playoff first round, a game that exposed Marcel Reed's many flaws. When the Mizzou defense gets through with him the Aggie faithful will be calling for a QB change. Mizzou with the win and it won't be close.

No. 15 Tennessee (4-1, 1-1 SEC) at Arkansas (2-3, 0-2 SEC):The Vols haven't been the same offensively since they got a healthy dose of Will Muschamp's defense a couple of weeks ago. Things went from bad to worse last week although Tennessee did eke out a win over Auburn. In doing so, freshman QB Faizon Brandon was banished to the bench in favor of George MacIntyre, who will get the start against Arkansas, which is coming off a blowout loss to the Aggies. MacIntyre is a game manager type who isn't flashy but doesn't make many mistakes. The single most important thing he can do against the Razorbacks is get confident and comfortable because big, bad Bama comes to Knoxville next week. The only way Arkansas stays in this game is if Ron Roberts can dial up a run defense and make MacIntyre win it with his arm. There are two chances that is going to happen: No way and no how.The Sayer Says Sooth!:Unless someone spikes the Vols Gatorade cooler with Trazodone, this one will get ugly in a hurry. No matter the final margin, Tennessee is not nearly as good as Vol fans would like us to believe.