The Soothsayer is feeling some very good vibes about the Florida Gators

(Photo by Chris Spears)

History has an offhand way of repeating itself. In the not so distant past, the Ole Miss Rebels ventured into The Swamp on a Saturday afternoon ranked No. 9 on the heels of a 28-10 whipping of No. 2 Georgia in Oxford. The Rebels were 11.5-point favorites to improve to 9-2. With only the Gators and Mississippi State left on the schedule, the Lane Kiffin-coached Rebels had the look of a mortal lock to get an at-large bid for the College Football Playoff.

A funny thing happened on the way to a sure thing that afternoon in Gainesville. The Ole Miss defense couldn’t contain Montrell Johnson Jr., who pounded out 127 yards, DJ Lagway threw touchdown passes to Elijhah Badger and freshman running back Jadan Baugh, and the Florida defense sacked Jaxson Dart four times and picked him off twice.

Final score Florida 24, Ole Miss 17. Instead of the playoff, Ole Miss went to the Gator Bowl to play Duke. It was one of the best wins in the four-year Billy Napier era at Florida.

Since then, Napier has taken his $20 million of pink slip money to James Madison. DJ Lagway has taken his never met an interception he couldn’t throw act to Baylor. Kiffin has taken his vaudeville show to LSU where he just last week got skunked by Ole Miss, 32-24, a game that might ultimately cost the Tigers an at-large bid for the playoff. And now Ole Miss is riding high at 3-0 (1-0 SEC), coached by Pete Golding, who was the Rebels’ defensive coordinator that fateful day in Gainesville two years ago, and they’re ranked fourth in the nation. On paper the Rebels have the look of a playoff team that is quarterbacked by the current Heisman Trophy favorite Trinidad Chambliss.

So how is it that despite their lofty ranking, Ole Miss is a 3.5-point road dog at The Swamp today (3:30 p.m., ABC) where a close encounter is scheduled with No. 21 Florida (3-0, 1-0 SEC), coached by Jon Sumrall, whose ultra-competitive nature probably has him frothing at the mouth for a chance to kneecap Ole Miss? Last year, you see, when he was coaching Tulane to the American Conference title and a playoff bid, Sumrall found himself left in the tall grass on the side of the road twice by Ole Miss, 45-10 in the regular season, 41-10 in the playoff.

Looking at this game through logical lenses, there is no way Ole Miss should be an underdog. Logic also says no way the Rebels began the week as 1.5-point road dogs on Sunday, then watched as the spread increased to its current 3.5 points.

Logic says that shouldn’t happen, but since when does logic apply when the Florida Gators are not only on a bit of a roll, but playing before 90,000 screamers in that outdoor insane asylum on the corner of University Avenue and Gale Lemerand Drive?

Not taking anything away from the Gators, who are unquestionably better off this season with Sumrall as the HBC than they were in all four years of the Billy Napier Error, but Florida has yet to play a ranked team – Ole Miss has wins over two (Louisville and Ole Miss) – and they certainly haven’t faced a player of the caliber of Trinidad Chambliss. Not only that, the Gators are coming off a win at Auburn in which the zebra crew engaged in a friendly game of drop the yellow hankee in which 12 of the 16 penalties against UF were committed by the offense.

Ole Miss has such a collection of top tier talent that you can’t afford to turn the ball over (Florida did twice against Auburn) and you don’t shoot yourself in both feet with all those penalties. Sumrall was barely off the field in Auburn last week when he began his lament about all those penalties that made the final score (Florida won 44-39) a lot closer than it really was. Early on in his Monday morning press conference when it was pointed out that the Gators are favored, Sumrall quipped “There’s a lot of good drugs out there.”

A bit of poor mouthing makes for good sound bites and looks awfully good in print, but behind the I’m just a humble football coach look on his face, Jon Sumrall is that guy you never want to pick a fight with. Outwardly, he has tried to shift all the focus to Ole Miss by proclaiming the Gators aren’t yet worthy, but inwardly there is a fire that burns and this week it’s blast furnace hot.

So, how do the Gators reward their coach with payback for his two losses to Ole Miss a year ago while at the same time avenging a 34-24 defeat to the Rebels in Oxford? The answer is complicated but do-able: (1) Keep Chambliss contained in the pocket where he’s far less dangerous than when he breaks free with the option to run or pass; (2) Tall D-linemen like Emmanuel Oyebadejo (he’s 6-7) keep their hands up. Chambliss is listed at 6-0, but 5-10 might actually be a stretch; (3) With coverage and pass rush make certain the Ole Miss receivers can’t get deep; (4) A steady diet of Jadan Baugh, especially in the second half. He has gained 273 of his 485 rushing yards in the second half. By the fourth quarter he is that heat-seeking missile that is looking for a linebacker to run over; and (5) Lots of play action for Aaron Philo. The downfield shots will be there for Vernell Brown III and Dallas Wilson if Philo can sell the run.

The Soothsayer is predicting the rowdiest crowd at The Swamp since Alabama came to town in 2021 and before that, Auburn in 2019. The theme should be one deafening voice on Saturday, no voice on Sunday. Affect the game. Make the Ole Miss ears ring for days to come.

The Sayer says Sooth!: Buster Faulkner delivers a paybacks are hell offensive game plan and Brad White’s rushers off the edge keep the pocket collapsed. Jadan Baugh moves way up the Heisman Hopeful list.

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER

No. 1 Texas (3-0, 0-0 SEC) at No. 14 Tennessee (3-0, 0-0 SEC): If the Arch Manning who led three fourth quarter touchdown drives to beat Ohio State shows up, Vol fans are going to be in for a fairly long afternoon. If Will Muschamp’s defense which hasn’t given up a touchdown in six straight quarters shows up foaming at the mouth, it will also be a long day for the Vols. Ohio State couldn’t run the ball on Texas. If the Vols can’t run they can’t win the game even if Arch Manning doesn’t do a decent impersonation of uncles Peyton and Eli and grandpa Archie. The Sayer says Sooth!: Not so sure about Arch but he won’t have to be good if the defense shows up. Texas but it won’t be easy.

Oklahoma (2-1, 0-0 SEC) at No. 2 Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC): Oklahoma might have the best defense Georgia will see all season. The Sooners are big, fast and nasty. They have a space age defense but unfortunately for Brent Venables a stone age offense. Kirby Smart could keep his defense on the sideline for an entire series and it would still take the Sooners five minutes and 12 plays to score. Gunner Stockton doesn’t have to have a brilliant day, just one in which he doesn’t turn the ball over for Georgia to win. The Poodles are favored by 13.5 points. The Sayer says Sooth!: Georgia’s defense pitches a shutout for a cruise control win.

South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC) at No. 8 Alabama (3-0, 1-0 SEC): The fact that Florida State lit up the Bama defense for 36 points and nearly 500 yards should alarm the folks in Tusks Are Loosa. South Carolina can move the football and LaNorris Sellers is the best QB Bama will have seen this year. Alabama is favored by 12.5 points and definitely should win this game, but if South Carolina scores more than three touchdowns and moves the ball consistently against the Bama defense, it should set off alarm bells from Decatur all the way down to Mobile. The Sayer says Sooth!: Bama gets an uncomfortable win.

No. 23 Texas A&M (2-1, 0-1 SEC) at No. 10 LSU (2-1, 0-1 SEC): The conductor of the Lane Train wanted Trinidad Chambliss but settled for Sam Leavitt. If he wanted Chambliss that bad he should have stayed at Ole Miss. Leavitt is way too mistake prone. It might not matter Saturday night against the Aggies, but it’s going to be a problem down the road. This is a playoff elimination game. The Aggies have tied their fortunes and future to Marcel Reed, which ranks right up there with Lane getting Sam Leavitt. The Sayer says Sooth!: LSU’s offense isn’t that good but its defense will daze and confuse Marcel Reed, thus ending the Aggies’ dreams of making the College Football Playoff a second straight year.

No. 19 Missouri (3-0, 0-0 SEC) at No. 24 Mississippi State (3-0, 1-0 SEC): When Mississippi State is playing good football, the cowbells are deafening in Starkville. Mizzou has never heard anything like they will hear Saturday night nor have they faced anything like Kamario Taylor, who has an arm like Dak Prescott and feet like Jayden Daniels. The Bulldogs are favored by six points, which seems reasonable after their road win against South Carolina last week. Mizzou doesn’t have Ahmad Hardy yet, but Jamal Roberts is averaging 100 yards a game. He has to go for 100 or more for Missouri to win. The Sayer says Sooth!: White knuckles all the way, but Taylor will be the difference as the Bulldogs move within two games of bowl eligibility. Whodathunkit?

Vanderbilt (3-0, 0-0 SEC) at Auburn (2-1, 0-1 SEC): It is only game four but Auburn fans are already mailing in the season. The O-line can’t block anybody and the defense, which was supposed to be the strong suit of the team got torched for nearly 500 yards and 44 points by Florida. It would have been worse except the zebra crew kept dropping hankees when the Gators had the ball. Vandy is a work in progress on offense, but the defense definitely knows how to get to the passer (tied for fourth nationally with 12 sacks). A lot of factors favor Vanderbilt but Auburn somehow is a 9.5-point favorite. For the Tigers to win Byrum Brown will be in feets don’t fail me now mode from the moment he steps on the field. The Sayer says Sooth!: Auburn isn’t very good but it’s hard to imagine the Tigers losing two straight at Jordan-Hare.

South Alabama (2-1) at Kentucky (2-1, 1-1 SEC): A week after losing their swagger to Alabama in Lexington, the Wildcats got it back in College Station. They’re 20.5-point faves to blow the doors off of South Alabama. Two weeks ago this was looking like the only remaining game on the schedule that would see Kentucky favored but now we don’t know. Is Kentucky a team to reckon with or are the Aggies as overrated as it gets in the SEC this year? The Sayer says Sooth!: If the same Kentucky team that hosed Texas A&M last week shows up it’s going to be a long day in Lexington for the boys from Mobile.

Tulsa (3-0) at Arkansas (1-2, 0-1 SEC): This was supposed to be one of the few winnable games on the Arkansas schedule. Well, it isn’t. Tulsa manhandled Oklahoma State in game one then Okie State beat Oregon the week after. Translation: Tulsa is a lot better than anyone thought. Even so, the Hurricanes are getting zero in the way of respect from Las Vegas. Oddsmakers favor Arkansas by seven. If you are prone to wager on such things, put your money on Tulsa. The Sayer says Sooth!: It’s going to be a very long season in Fayette-Nam for Ryan Silverfield and the Razorback faithful. It’s so bad that the hottest ticket in town is for John Calipari’s basketball team and the season is more than a month away.