The Soothsayer: Kentucky no longer fears the Gators

Frame from Florida Gators/UAA video.

There was a time and not all that long ago when Florida football fans measured the Kentucky game by “how much.” Never was it “will we beat Kentucky” because they were the “Mildcats” and an automatic cure for whatever ailed the Gators. A win was assured so the only question was by how much.

From 1986 until a fateful night in The Swamp in 2018, Kentucky was a mortal lock to lose to the Florida Gators. Twenty-eight straight years the Gators inflicted pain on UK. Yes, there were some close calls but they were like teasers. There was the “Doering’s got a touchdown! Doering’s got a touchdown!” game that immortalized Mick Huber in the minds and hearts of Gator fans everywhere. That night in 1993 was the night the legend of Danny Wuerffel was born, but it was also the coming out party for former walk-on wide receiver Chris Doering, who would go on to set an SEC record for career touchdown receptions that stood for nearly 30 years.

We call that game a teaser because the next year, almost as if he felt the need to atone for a close call win over UK in Lexington, Steve Spurrier and the Gators wore out the Wildcats to the tune of 73-7. For years, it seemed that every time Kentucky made Florida hearts skip a beat, the Wildcats were in for a severe beating the next year.

Then came the night that will live forever in infamy. The Swamp, September 8, 2018, Dan Mullen’s second game as Florida’s head coach. The unthinkable happened. Kentucky ran for 303 yards. On the last play of the game came the ultimate insult. Feleipe Franks fumbled and Kentucky’s Davonte Robinson scooped up the loose ball, ran it in 30 yards for a TD. Kentucky 27, Florida 16.

The fear factor went poof in the humid Florida night and it has never returned. Kentucky no longer fears the Florida Gators. The Wildcats have won five of the last eight meetings with the Gators. Jon Sumrall was the defensive coordinator when Kentucky beat the Gators 20-13 in Lexington in 2021. Brad White was the defensive coordinator at UK when the Wildcats scored wins in 2022, 2023 and last year when Kentucky picked off DJ Lagway three times en route to a 38-7 humiliation of the Gators in Gainesville.

Sumrall is Florida’s head coach now and White is his defensive coordinator. Tonight (6:15 p.m., ESPN) they find out if you can indeed go home again. Kentucky (7-2, 5-2 SEC) is ranked 13th nationally and very much in contention for a berth in the College Football Playoff. If the Wildcats win out in their last three games they are almost assured of the playoff. Who would have ever thought Kentucky would make the playoff much less do it before the Florida Gators?

But it could happen unless the Gators pull one out of the wazzoo. To do it they’ll be without Vernell Brown III for a sixth straight game and with Aaron Philo returning as the starting QB after Tramell Jones Jr.’s bad day at the office last week against Oklahoma.

Kentucky is a 3.5-point favorite. It seems like it should be a wider spread considering the way UK has played all year and the way the Gators have cratered since September. For Kentucky this isn’t the Super Bowl but it’s close because winning is one step closer to college football’s promised land. For Florida, a win could reverse the trend of four losses in five games and would assure the Gators of bowl eligibility.

High stakes drama in Lexington in which the team that commits the fewest turnovers is likely to pull out a win.

The Sayer Says Sooth!: The SEC Soothsayer knows all too well what a win would mean for Sumrall and White, not to mention the shot of feel good the Gators need so desperately. He is also keenly aware that Kentucky fans are ready to say screw the SEC and it’s big fines, it’s time to storm the field if the Wildcats are ahead when the clock flatlines at zero. Thirty-two years of Florida fear factor are relics of a past that Sumrall wants to resurrect. If you gamble, bet the ranch that Sumrall will restore Florida’s dignity, just not this night. The Soothsayer thinks it’s a chest clutcher Kentucky win. It’s still hard to fathom.

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER

No. 22 Missouri (6-3, 3-3 SEC) at No. 1 Georgia (8-1, 6-1 SEC), 3:30 p.m., ABC: Missouri’s bubble burst last week against Texas. Now the Tigers go to Athens to face a Georgia team that is playing better than anyone in the country. Georgia just doesn’t make mistakes. The Sayer Says Sooth!: For Mizzou, a miracle equivalent of feeing the 5,000 with three fish and two barley loaves is what it will take but no miracles today.

No. 3 Alabama (7-2, 5-2 SEC) at Vanderbilt (4-5, 1-5 SEC), 12:45 p.m., SEC Network: Vanderbilt starts a true freshman quarterback. The Alabama defense is drooling at the very thought of chasing Jared Curtis all over the field. Keelon Russell might throw five TDPs. The Sayer Says Sooth!: The Red Sea will part before Vandy wins this one.

No. 6 Texas (7-2, 4-2 SEC) at No. 21 LSU (6-3, 3-3 SEC), 7:30 p.m., ABC: LSU mortgaged the farm to induce Sam Leavitt to become the QB who could lead the Tigers to the College Football Playoff. There is Good Sam and there is Bad Sam. Good Sam completes passes to receivers who wear the same color shirt that he wears. Bad Sam completes passes to whoever is open, doesn’t matter if he’s on the other team. This is a big step in Arch Manning’s career. Can he win back-to-back games on the road against ranked teams? The Sayer Says Sooth!: Arch only has to be average because Will Muschamp’s defense will take care of business. LSU will not have a Lazarus moment and rise from the dead.

No. 8 Tennessee (7-2, 4-2 SEC) at Texas A&M (4-5, 1-5 SEC), 3 p.m., ESPN: The Aggies are college football’s fart in the elevator. They started the season on everybody’s list to make a deep playoff run. Now they simply stink and there is no way they’re prepared to stop DeSean Bishop and that Tennessee running game. The Vols can sniff the playoff already. The Sayer Says Sooth!: They hate the color orange in Aggieland. They’ll hate it even more after the creamsicle clad Vols grind out a win. If the Aggies were Jonah the whale would have never spit them out.

No. 17 South Carolina (6-3, 4-3 SEC) at Arkansas (3-6, 1-5 SEC), 7:45 p.m., SEC Network: Week five of the Shane Beamer Gives the Finger to the Disbelievers Tour continues in Fayette Nam. The Fighting Chickens have won four straight and they’re feeling like they can beat anyone in the world about now. Arkansas fans are starving for a win but there is no manna from heaven on this day. The Sayer Says Sooth!: Beamer Ball prevails in a tuneup for next week’s showdown in Athens with Georgia.

No. 19 Ole Miss (6-3, 4-3 SEC) at Oklahoma (5-4, 3-3 SEC), 4:15 p.m., SEC Network: Kewan Lacy is done for the year. So are the chances Ole Miss makes the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, Brent Venables has three winnable games ahead of him. Lose any one of them and he is probably toast, but not on this day. The Sayer Says Sooth!: There is no healing hem of the garment for Kewan Lacy to touch nor is there healing for the once strong Heisman hopes for Trinidad Chambliss. Sooners are boomers.

Auburn (5-4, 3-4 SEC) at Mississippi State (4-5, 2-5 SEC), 12 noon, ESPN2: The good news for Mississippi State is QB Kamario Taylor will be paid enough money to conquer hunger in some Third World Countries. The bad news is that Kamario Taylor is getting paid that kind of jack for next year. Right now he’s Captain Clipboard because of an injury suffered weeks ago. The faithful in Starkville are wondering where is Benny Hinn when you need him? They need a faith healer and Taylor to stop Auburn from becoming bowl eligible. The Sayer Says Sooth!: Auburn moves within one game of its first winning season since 2020.