The Soothsayer likes the Gators in a white knuckler
By Franz Beard
Desperate times call for desperate measures and in Norman, Oklahoma these are definitely desperate times.
That win three weeks ago over then No. 1 Texas only bought a short honeymoon which ended when Oklahoma (4-4, 2-3 SEC) got bitch-slapped into submission by South Carolina a week ago. Since then it has gone from honeymoon to hostility for head coach Brent Venables, who fired offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle in an attempt to not only pacify boosters who want his head on a platter, but to salvage what's left of a season gone south.
When you find yourself strapped to a 40-gallon drum filled with high octane jet fuel and the boosters have an acetylene torch ready to make it go boom, you throw stuff against the wall hoping something will stick. That's what Venables did when he fired Arbuckle and named future Pro Football Hall of Fame tight end Jason Witten as his interim OC.
Witten, a first year Oklahoma assistant with no previous college coaching experience, gets to try his luck reviving Oklahoma's stagnant offense in The Swamp Saturday night against a Florida defense that has gotten progressively better since it went belly up the first week of October in Columbia, Missouri.
Oklahoma's offense under Arbuckle has been cloaked in predictability ever since he arrived from Washington State, bringing with him quarterback John Mateer. Mateer played brilliantly at Wazzoo, but since transferring to the SEC the name of his game is inconsistency.
How much of Mateer's roller coaster ride against SEC defenses is a direct result of Arbuckle's play calling? And, how much of it has to do with a quarterback who can't fall back on a running game and whose offensive line has been hit hard by the injury bug?
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Venables, who got a contract extension at the beginning of the year but now finds himself on a seat that grows warmer by the hour, has to hope that Witten has a bit of faith healer in him because this offense ranks next to last in the SEC and among the bottom 25 teams in all of Division I at 336.9 yards per game. Is a Florida defense that ranks 13th in the SEC the cure to what ails Oklahoma's offense?
Perhaps a better question has to do with the sudden change in play callers. Because Witten's coaching experience prior to Oklahoma was Liberty Christian School in Texas, there may be no readily available tape from which UF defensive coordinator Brad White can analyze and scheme accordingly. Will that lack of familiarity give Oklahoma the leg up it needs to outscore the Gators?
The flip side of all this is Florida's offense, which last eclipsed 400 yards in a game back in September. The Gators plan to start Tramell Jones Jr. at quarterback. He got a win on the road at Texas when the Longhorns were two weeks removed from the national No. 1 ranking. He didn't start against Georgia but came off the bench to lead the Gators to their only touchdown. He was noticeably more effective than Aaron Philo.
For the fifth straight week, it doesn't look like wide receiver Vernell Brown III will be available. He's listed as doubtful. Listed as questionable is Bailey Stockton, who leads the Gators with 35 catches for 365 yards. Out for the game is right tackle Emeka Ugorji, in the starting lineup for all eight previous games. In his place will be Caden Jones, a solid run blocker but shaky in pass protection.
All signs point to the outcome of this game coming down to which offense can find a measure of success. Oklahoma has the motivation of saving Brent Venables from joining Mike Norvell on the Extinct Species head coaching list. Florida, which has already surpassed the win total of Billy Napier's final year, has the motivation of a November that could set in motion a revival of the days when the Gators were a top ten fixture and a threat to compete for a national title.
The way the Soothsayer is analyzing Saturday night there will be no shortage of white knuckles and chest clutching on an eardrum shattering night at The Swamp.
THE SAYER SAYS SOOTH!: The Gators are favored by 6.5 points. The home field advantage will be the difference as Oklahoma's beleaguered offensive line might set records for false starts, forcing the Sooners to operate behind the chains.
As long as the Gators keep Mateer in the pocket, Oklahoma's offense will be neutralized. Look for Tramell Jones to loosen up the secondary enough that Jadan Baugh will find running room for his first 100-yard game since September. Florida gets bowl eligible and gains momentum for a November to remember.
THE SEC SOOTHSAYER
No. 2 Georgia (7-1, 5-1 SEC) at No. 10 Ole Miss (6-2, 4-2 SEC), 7:30 p.m., ABC:
For starters, the game is in Oxford where Ole Miss rarely loses. The Ole Miss offensive line is going to be the key here. The Rebels have allowed only five sacks all year, best in the SEC and fourth nationally. Trinidad Chambliss will make up for his bad day at the office in Austin a couple of weeks ago. The Sayer Says Sooth!: Georgia goes down creating a logjam for the top spot in the SEC.
No. 5 Alabama (6-2, 4-2 SEC) at No. 14 LSU (6-2, 3-2 SEC), 3:30 p.m., ABC:
Lane Kiffin has been lying awake at night dreaming of this matchup. The only thing missing is it's an afternoon game. At night, the LSU crowd would be seriously greased and ready to make life miserable for Alabama. He has just the defense to do it and an offense that can put a lot of points on the board. A third loss for Bama? The third straight season the Tide has lost three or more? Bear Bryant is rolling over in his grave and Nick Saban is seen stopping on the side of the road to barf while driving to one of his Mercedes dealerships. The Sayer Says Sooth!: It's a playoff elimination game and LSU stays alive while Alabama faithful scream for Kalen DeBoer's scalp.
No. 6 Kentucky (7-1, 5-1 SEC) at No. 13 Tennessee (6-2, 3-2 SEC), 6:15 p.m., ESPN:
The Kentucky Cinderella story travels to Knoxville where a Tennessee defense leads the nation in sacks (35). The Vols will also play defense with their offense, running the ball and controlling the clock. Kentucky will make it close for three quarters, then the Vols will dominate at the end. Tennessee is favored by six.
The Sayer Says Sooth!: The Vols won't score a lot of points, just enough to become another two-loss team clamoring for the SEC championship.
No. 7 Texas (6-2, 3-2 SEC) at No. 18 Missouri (6-2, 3-2 SEC), 12 noon, ESPN:
It's an elimination game for both teams. The winner stays in the hunt for the SEC title and the College Football Playoff. The loser gets a third loss and a bowl game in Orlando or Tampa. Texas is favored by 2.5-points. Missouri, meanwhile, has a healthy Ahmad Hardy ready to spring loose. If he can run the ball, Mizzou has a chance. If not, the Longhorns stay alive.
The Sayer Says Sooth!: Arch Manning remembers to throw the ball to his own team, the Longhorns stuff the Mizzou run and emerge as a contender.
Texas A&M (4-4, 1-4 SEC) at No. 21 South Carolina (5-3, 3-3 SEC), 3 p.m., ESPN:
South Carolina is scorching hot and the Aggies are leftovers in the fridge growing mold by the second. The Gamecocks have won three in a row with an offense clicking behind LaNorris Sellers and a defense that has gone four straight games without yielding 400 yards. The Aggies are the most disappointing team in the SEC in large part because Marcel Reed has underwhelmed at quarterback.
The defense is good at home, but this one is on the road where the Aggies have been porous. The Sayer Says Sooth!: LaNorris Sellers has quietly become the second best QB in the SEC behind Trinidad Chambliss. He's the difference-maker for the Chickens who think a nine-win season is achievable.
Arkansas (3-5, 1-4 SEC) at Auburn (4-4, 2-4 SEC), 12:45 p.m., SEC Network:
That win over Georgia when the Bulldogs were No. 1 in the country is a dot in the rearview for Auburn, which has lost two straight in blowout fashion. This is a get well game for the Tigers who will be double digit favorites in each of the next three games. For Arkansas, it's another loss in a season that can't end fast enough. The Sayer Says Sooth!: If this game gets interesting it will be because Byrum Brown is turning the ball over. Expect a big game from Brown and for Auburn's defense to actually have a decent game.
Vanderbilt (3-5, 0-5 SEC) at Mississippi State (4-4, 2-4 SEC), 4:15 p.m., SEC Network:
How weird is this? AJ Swann, whose career began at Vanderbilt five years ago gets to start against his former alma mammy. With Kamario Taylor healthy, Mississippi State was a legitimate force on its way to a nine win season. Without him the Bulldogs have produced a combined 18 points in the last three games. For Vandy the motivation is to break a five game losing streak in SEC play and avoid an oh-fer season in league play.
The Sayer Says Sooth!: With Taylor healthy this is a no-brainer. Without him Mississippi State is downright bad on offense. As a result, the Fighting Clark Leas get their first SEC win of the year.
Cover: Jadan Baugh dives into the end zone against Ole Miss in The Swamp on September 26, 2026. Archival photo by Chris Spears, GatorBait Media.
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