The Transfer Season Has Only Just Begun For the Florida Gators

Can Dan Mullen lead the Florida Gators through another transfer season? Photo Courtesy: SEC

What is about to happen in a matter of a day or two in college football is akin to the dropping of the green flag to start the Daytona 500. When the flag drops at Daytona or any other NASCAR race at a super speedway, we see a modern day version of Darwin’s survival of the fittest theory acted out on an asphalt theater complete with high banked turns that slingshot cars into straightaways that invite speeds of 200 miles per hour. The driver who takes the checkered flag 500 miles later, survives because he and his crew are the best at adapting, changing and making split second decisions while avoiding crashes that will eliminate any number of cars from the great chase to the finish.

The holder of college football’s green flag is the National Collegiate Athletic Association, which, in its infinite wisdom, has declared open season for transfers. Having already ruled that 2020 will not count against the five-year eligibility clock that begins to tick from the moment an athlete steps on campus, the NCAA has now opened the door for any athlete to transfer to any Division I school without having to sit out a year and without having to go through that silly, tedious waiver process. All this is before the entire legislative body of the organization meets later in January to implement a one-time transfer rule that some coaches believe will be the equivalent of free agency.

In this pandemic year, we’ve already seen a number of transfer declarations and in recent days, a few players have announced their new grass is greener destination but this is a trickle compared to what is about to take place. Think of how the Daytona 500 begins with 40 750-horsepower cars accelerating and blasting by as the green flag waves to start the race only in this case we’re talking about the 130 schools that make up Division I in college football. Since transfers won’t have to sit out, the market is going to be flooded with the greatest mass migration west of the Serengetti. Nearly every school in Division I will be affected, whether it is players lost to transfer or incoming.

For bottom feeders and independents who have difficulty landing quality players via the normal recruiting routes, this open transfer season has the potential to be a lifeline. Everybody is aware that Liberty’s 11-1 season had everything to do with former Auburn quarterback Malik Willis transferring in to add dynamic athleticism to Hugh Freeze’s creative offense. Although he had an up and down career at Tennessee and is unlikely to land a gig with an upper echelon Power Five school, Jarrett Guarantano is going to be seen as a plum recruit for someone in the Group of Five who needs an experienced quarterback. Guarantano has more than 20 SEC starts under his belt so he will be in demand. Another Tennessee quarterback, JT Shrout, who spent two years as a backup in Knoxville, has also transferred out. He is heading to Colorado, not exactly a bottom feeder, but not a top 25 program either. Another Tennessee transfer – edge rusher DeAndre Johnson – is a Miami native who wants to return to Florida for his final year of eligibility, in all probability to UCF, South Florida, Florida Atlantic or FIU. Former Mississippi State quarterback Garret Schrader has also announced that he is transferring to Syracuse where he will be the favorite to be next year’s starting QB. South Carolina on Thursday landed talented transfer wide receiver Ahmarean Brown from Georgia Tech, who could be the replacement for Shi Smith, who has declared for the NFL Draft.

These players are just the tip of the iceberg.

For the twenty or so Power Five schools that legitimately have a chance to compete for championships, the transfer market is going to be a pick and choose affair. There will be far more players interested in transferring to a school like Florida, for instance, than there will be openings. It’s a well-known fact that Dan Mullen has already received a stack of feelers from players trying to gauge Florida’s interest in obtaining their services. You can almost figure that for every transfer Mullen might show an active interest in, there will be five to ten for whom there is not enough interest to continue the conversation.

For Mullen and Florida, the next ten days will be like the last ten laps at Daytona or Talladega when it’s a sprint to the finish and the checkered flag. The kids who wish to transfer to Florida have to be ready to make a decision immediately so they can enroll in time for the spring semester and participate in mat drills in February and spring practice. Those who wish to take their time deciding or who hesitate are going to be passed over for someone of equal or greater ability who is ready to make an immediate move.

If you saw the disaster that was Wednesday night’s 55-20 Cotton Bowl beatdown at the hands of Oklahoma, then it’s rather obvious the Gators have holes to fill. The loss had plenty to do with players like Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney, Trevon Grimes, Kyree Campbell and Brad Stewart opting out to focus on the NFL Draft but it also exposed a need for wide receivers, defensive linemen and linebackers who are ready to step in and play immediately.

Good recruiting by Mullen and his staff has brought in quite a few good receivers but none of these kids have established themselves as next year’s go-to guy. There is an immediate need for a playmaker like Van Jefferson, who transferred to Florida from Ole Miss in 2018. Over the next two years, Jefferson caught 84 passes for 1,160 yards and 12 touchdowns, which helped him land a second round draft selection by the Los Angeles Rams. Florida’s offense is tight end friendly, but Pitts leaves enormous shoes to fill. That Oklahoma ran for more than 400 yards and averaged 10.9 yards per rushing attempt should tell you how desperate the Gators are to find quality D-linemen who can fill gaps and linebackers who can wrap up and put a running back on the ground.

Mullen has proven to be a solid recruiter with three consecutive top ten classes. Recruiting fills gaps but the kids take time to develop. This is where the transfer portal can work to Florida’s advantage. Is there another Jonathan Greenard out there? He transferred to Florida as a graduate from Louisville in 2019 and made an immediate impact as an edge rusher. He led the Gators in sacks (9.5) and made All-SEC. It wasn’t just his productivity on the field that made him so valuable, but his leadership and maturity. What Greenard brought to the locker room and his on the field demeanor were missed enormously in 2020 when Florida’s defense put up the worst numbers in decades.

Only a couple of weeks ago, the Gators received signed letters of intent from 21 high school kids and one junior college transfer. When school re-opens in January, former five-star running back and Clemson transfer Demarckus Bowman will be enrolled bringing to 15 the number of early enrollees from this group. Due to some of the early enrollees counting back to last year’s scholarship numbers, the Gators have room to sign as many as six more.

Maybe the right question to be asking is how many of the six Mullen signs will be transfers? Jason Higdon of 1standtenflorida.com speculates that Mullen will land four, one of which is a multi-position player with serious credentials.

Adding players via transfer might seem like your basic no-brainer but there are a couple of other factors to be considered, one of which is UF will not be immune to players leaving. Already announced that they are transferring out are running back Iverson Clement and corners C.J. McWilliams and Chester Kimbrough. In any given year, attrition accounts for three to five players transferring out but with the NCAA offering what amounts to free agency, it’s foolish to think there won’t be several other Gators leaving.

Additionally, we have to remember that the NCAA has already ruled that 2020 will not count against anyone’s eligibility. Adjustments will be made for roster size next season because this is the equivalent of blanket immunity and that creates what could be a very attractive decision for several seniors whose eligibility would be expired under normal circumstances. Several Gators, whose draft reports might indicate the last two rounds, free agency or no interest at all, might elect to return to Florida in 2021. For example, freakish linebacker Jeremiah Moon struggled with injuries and Covid-19 in 2020, which limited him to four games. As a result, his draft stock has nosedived due to health concerns. If he can put together a strong season in which he remains healthy all season, Moon could enhance his status. One insider whose information is generally on the money, believes there is a 90 percent chance Moon will be back for the 2021 season. We can expect others.

We also have to take into account the lure of graduate school. A senior whose professional future gravitates toward iffy might decide that playing football in exchange for a year of grad school is the right career decision.

What we should expect over the next ten days is some serious roster re-shaping largely due to the transfer rules. Some players will leave for what they believe to be greener pastures elsewhere while others will be joining the program for a chance to play immediately for a team that has the personnel and coaching to be a constant threat to compete for championships. In this modern day laboratory where Darwin’s theory will be proven, we will find out just how strong the Florida program is. If the Gators land better personnel than they lose, then consider UF to be one of the fit programs. If Florida loses key players that cannot be replaced, the fitness of the program will have to be questioned.

Buckle up. The ride over the next ten days is going to be very, very interesting.