Thoughts of the Day: April 19, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Monday morning:

MATH LESSONS FOR UNDERCLASSMEN

In 10 days, the National Football League will conduct its draft, seven rounds in all but with compensation picks 259 players will be selected. The draft includes 128 underclassmen. If it’s a typical draft, more than 50 percent of the underclassmen will discover they should have stayed in school because they won’t be selected. Some might land a free agent contract and will make a roster but for the most part, undrafted means they can stick a fork in their dreams of multi-year, multi-million dollar contracts.

The NBA will draft in late June, two rounds with 60 players taken. Players have until May 30 to declare for the draft and if they haven’t hired an agent, they have until June 19 to pull their name out and return to school. Last year more than 230 players kept their name in the draft. An overwhelming majority of underclassmen went undrafted last year and the same will hold true this June. The odds of making an NBA roster as a free agent pale in comparison to the bad odds of free agents spending years in the NFL but at least they have the G-League and can go play professionally around the world.

The question is who advises these kids? And, given the poor odds they’ll get drafted are they listening in the first place? A kid who isn’t assured of going in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft needs to stay in school. A kid who isn’t reasonably sure he will go in the first round of the NBA Draft needs to stay in school.

Right now there are more than 1,000 Division I football players who have transferred and as of Sunday night, more than 1,400 basketball players were in the NCAA portal. Those numbers are going to swell significantly in the next six weeks since (a) spring football will conclude and players who are buried on depth charts decide to look elsewhere; (b) the academic year concludes and kids know they have the grades to transfer out and (c) there is no longer a one-year penalty for changing schools.

There is going to be a rude awakening for a very large number of kids who will find themselves without a place to play and a scholarship.

Dennis Dodd of CBSSports.com writes, “Let's be generous and assume each of the 130 FBS programs have five extra scholarships to give. (They do not. Not even close. But we're trying to make a point.) That's 650 scholarships. That also means a boat load of players who won't have a new home.”

The numbers will be just as bad for basketball, maybe worse since more kids will be transferring. There are 353 Division I schools so it would take every school in Division I taking four or more transfers for every player who went into the portal to land a scholarship. Since rosters are limited to 13 scholarship players and high school kids get signed in November to provide the foundation, it’s likely that 50 percent of the transfers will find themselves out on their own quite soon.

Whether it’s football or basketball, very few coaches will take back a kid who has put his name in the transfer portal. The moment a kid puts his name in the portal and the semester comes to an end, coaches have no more obligations. It becomes an effective form of roster management for coaches. They will claim that the new legislation makes for virtual free agency out loud, but in private they will be giggling because they can get rid of kids who are dead weight on a roster and replace them with hand-picked players with experience.

So far, it has been a fortunate year for the Gators who are neither taking a big hit with players leaving for the draft or in the transfer portals. Here is the status of the University of Florida athletes who have declared for the NFL or NBA drafts as well as those who are in the transfer portal.

UF underclassmen declaring for the NFL Draft (4) Kyle Pitts, TE Kadarius Toney, WR Marco Wilson, CB Evan McPherson, PK Assessment: Barring something drastic taking place between now and next week, Pitts will go in the first six picks. Toney is expected to go in the lower third of the first round. Wilson’s stock has been rising. He could go late third round. McPherson is likely a sixth or seventh round pick. Had he stayed in school McPherson would probably be looking at the same draft status in 2022.

UF underclassmen declaring for the NBA Draft (2) Tre Mann, SG/PG Scottie Lewis, SG/SF Assessment: Mann is solidly in the first round. His stock continues to rise and it wouldn’t be a big surprise if he gets in the lottery (first 13 picks). Someone gave Lewis horrendous advice. He won’t get drafted and if he gets any contract at all it will be for the G-League making $50,000 or less or in Europe for maybe a little bit more.

UF transfers (scholarship only) Football departures (8)

Iverson Clement, RB (Temple) Jesiah Pierre, LB (Texas Tech) Chester Kimbrough, DB (Michigan State) Jahari Rogers, DB (SMU) C.J. McWilliams, DB (Purdue) T.J. Moore, OL James Houston, LB Quincy Linton, S

Assessment: Of the three who haven’t already lined up a scholarship, Houston has the best chance to land with a Power 5 team. Linton and Moore will be fortunate to get a Group of Five scholarship.

Football arrivals (4) Demarkcus Bowman, RB (Clemson) Antonio Shelton, DL (Penn State) Daquan Newkirk, DL (Auburn)

Jace Christmann, PK (Mississippi State)

Assessment: Bowman is a former 5-star recruit with four years of eligibility remaining. The running back room is crowded but he’s too talented to sit. Shelton and Newkirk are grad transfers who ended spring football as starters on the D-line. Christmann is a grad transfer who will step in as McPherson’s replacement. Expect two more transfers.

Basketball departures (4) Noah Locke, SG (Louisville) Omar Payne, PF/C (Illinois) Ques Glover, PG (Samford) Osayi Osifo, PF (Jacksonville)

Assessment: Locke is an excellent catch and shoot guy who going to a place that had the gang that couldn’t shoot straight last year. Payne can block shots but in two years showed no offensive game other than an occasional alley opp dunk or stickback. Glover can probably be a good player in the Southern Conference. Osifo is at JU where he will be 6-7.

Basketball arrivals (4) Brandon McKissic, PG/SG (UM-Kansas City) C.J. Felder, PF (Boston College) Myreon Jones, SG (Penn State) Phlandrous Fleming Jr., SG (Charleston Southern)

Assessment: The four replacements are an upgrade over the four departures. All four can score and all four can play defense. McKissic and Fleming are grad transfers while Jones has as many as two years of eligibility remaining and Felder as many as three. Don’t be surprised if all four start. The Gators have one open scholarship for sure, two if Keyontae Johnson isn’t cleared to play. If it’s two scholarships, expect one transfer and one high school kid.

BASEBALL: GATORS SWEEP MIZZOU

It was a critical weekend for the 18th-ranked Gators (25-11, 9-6 SEC East). With their three-game sweep of Missouri (11-23, 4-11 SEC East) UF gained ground on division leader Vanderbilt (28-6, 11-4 SEC) and both Tennessee (29-8, 10-5 SEC East) and South Carolina (24-10, 10-5 SEC East).

Pitching stars of the weekend were Christian Scott and Jack Leftwich. Scott (1-2, 1.62 ERA) gave up one hit in 5-2/3 innings of relief as UF came from behind to take an 8-5 win Friday night. Leftwich (6-2, 3.02 ERA) held Mizzou hitless over four innings Saturday to preserve an 8-6 win. Leftwich pitched eight innings of relief last week, allowing no hits, one walk and striking out nine. Judd Fabian went 5-11 with three doubles and a homer.

The Gators will face Jacksonville University on the road Tuesday night and then hit the road to face Auburn in SEC play next weekend.

SOFTBALL: GATORS TAKE TWO OUT OF THREE FROM ALABAMA

The 4th-ranked Gators (32-6, 12-3 SEC) won their series with 3rd-ranked Alabama (33-7, 12-6 SEC) in Tuscaloosa as Elizabeth Hightower (15-3, X ERA) pitched a complete game, 3-hit shutout Friday night for a 2-0 win and Kendyl Lindaman blasted a grand slam on Saturday as UF hammered Bama 9-2. The Gators travel to Florida Gulf Coast for a non-conference game Wednesday night. South Carolina will be in Gainesville next weekend.

VOLLEYBALL: GATORS ADVANCE TO OMAHA REGIONAL FINAL

The No. 8 seed Gators (21-3) advanced to Monday night’s regional final with a Sunday night win over No. 9 Ohio State, 25-20, 26-24, 23-25 and 25-16).

Other UF spring sports

Men’s tennis: The Gators (18-1, 12-0 SEC) are the top seed when the SEC Tournament is held in Fayetteville starting on Wednesday.

Gymnastics: The Gators were the nation’s No. 1 seeded team but could manage only a 4th-place finish at the NCAA Gymnastics Championships in Fort Worth. Trinity Thomas, who was easily the top gymnast in the country when healthy, was still feeling the effects of two sprained ankles. Her scores were nowhere near what they were six weeks ago and it showed with Florida’s team scores. Still, UF was the only SEC team to make the final four.

Lacrosse: The 9th-ranked Gators (11-2, 8-0 AAC) clinched at least a tie for the American Athletic Conference championship by knocking off Vanderbilt(11-4, 6-2 AAC) twice over the weekend, 17-7 on Friday and 22-9 on Sunday.

OVER, UNDER, AROUND AND THROUGH THE SEC (FOOTBALL/HOOPS)

Alabama: Bryce Young completed 25-44 passes for 333 yards and a touchdown, winning MVP honors in Alabama’s spring game. Jah-Marien Latham, who had four tackles, one sack and two quarterback hurries, was chosen most valuable lineman.

Arkansas: Expected starting QB KJ Jefferson completed 6-11 passes for 153 yards and two touchdowns. Malik Hornsby hit 11-18 passes for 144 yards and a TD.

Auburn: Assessing QB Bo Nix, HBC Bryan Harsin says, “He’s a weapon.” In the spring game, Nix completed 12-20 passes for 112 yards and a TD while running for 29 yards.

Georgia: JT Daniels threw for 342 yards (28-41) and three touchdowns in the spring game. Carson Beck was 22-31 for 236 yards for two touchdowns and an interception.

Kentucky: Linebacker D’Eryk Jackson suffered a season-ending non-contact injury during pre-scrimmage warmups. The injury is only described as lower leg.

LSU: Neither Max Johnson nor Myles Brennan threw an interception in the spring game Saturday but backups TJ Finley (two) and Garrett Nussmeier (three) made the defensive backs look very good.

Mississippi State: Southern Miss transfer Jack Abraham completed 23-34 passes for 162 yards and two TDs without an interception in the spring game. Last year’s starter Will Rogers was 25-41 for 255 yards with one TD and one interception.

Missouri: Defensive lineman Marcus Utsey has elected to transfer out. He was in on 19 tackles last season.

Tennessee: Rick Barnes got good news when center John Fulkerson (6-10, 220) decided to take advantage of the NCAA’s extra year of eligibility. Fulkerson, who averaged 9.5 points and 5.5 rebounds per game last year, returns for a sixth season with the Vols.

Texas A&M: Point guard Marcus Williams (6-2, 180, FR) transferred from Wyoming. He was the Mountain West Conference Freshman of the Year last season when he averaged 14.8 points and 4.3 assists per game ... Junior college small forward Aaron Johnson-Cash (6-7, 200) signed his national letter of intent to play for the Aggies.

Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt’s new head coach is a former defensive coordinator, which doesn’t exactly explain how the final score in the spring game was 68-30.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: There are sacrifice flies and then there is the one that scored the winning run Saturday when South Carolina beat Tennessee 3-2 in eight innings in an SEC softball game. With the bases loaded and one out, Riley Blampied popped a foul ball behind the plate. Catcher Josie Willingham and first baseman Ashley Morgan collided and fell to the ground pursuing the ball. It appears Willingham got her mitt on the ball but it popped out. Before it hit the ground, Morgan secured the catch but neither was cognizant of South Carolina’s Maddie Gallagher, who had tagged up at third. Gallagher sprinted home for the winning run. Most sacrifice flies make it to the outfield. This one was 10-12 feet behind the plate.