Thoughts of the day: August 18, 2025

(Photo by Chris Spears)

A few thoughts to jump start your Monday morning:

For the first time since he’s been Florida’s football coach, Billy Napier has a legitimate Southeastern Conference roster, one that is capable of winning nine or more football games. Yes, yes, the schedule is brutal, but it was last year, too, and the Gators won eight games. This is a better football team than the one that went 8-5 a year ago, largely because the Gators have front line talent and more depth than they’ve had in Napier’s three previous seasons.

There is a theory that every SEC team has at least 22 SEC-caliber players. That means a player who could suit up and make the two-deep on nearly every team in the league. If all you have is 22 SEC-caliber players you’ll win three or fewer games. If you have as many as 33 SEC-caliber players you can win anywhere from four to six games. Depth will get the best of you in the fourth quarter if that’s all you have. Teams that have between 33 and 44 SEC-caliber players will typically win seven or eight games, nine if they catch a break.

To win nine or more games you’ve got to have at least 44 players who can flat out play. Those with more than 44 are the ones that challenge for championships. There will be injuries in a 12-game SEC schedule so the teams that win 10 or more games and compete for championships will typically have somewhere around 50 players ready to play.

Florida has 44 players who could play for anyone in the SEC. Are there enough beyond the 44 that make up the 2-deep that would enable the Gators to sustain momentum if and when injuries hit? The Gators play eight teams that made a bowl game a year ago, seven that begin the 2025 season ranked in the Associated Press top 25. Against a schedule that difficult depth will be challenged.   

With just 12 days to go before the Gators run out of the Ben Hill Griffin Stadium tunnel for their season opener with Long Island University, there are legitimate concerns about Florida’s depth. While there have been no reports of season-threatening injuries, there have been far too many missed practices and snaps due to injuries since August camp began. Will some of these injuries cause important players to miss games once the season begins?   

The single most important question surrounds DJ Lagway, who as of last Friday, hadn’t taken a live snap against a defense that rushes the passer. Lagway just turned 20 last week so he’s young and still needs those practice snaps. The only way to develop timing with receivers and to read defenses is by taking snaps against a live defense. Is he just so skilled that the missed time won’t faze him?

If the injuries of August are all minor and don’t carry over into the season and Lagway is healthy enough to play at a very high level, then Napier has a roster capable of winning nine games. At least for the next 12 days, Gator fans will be holding their collective breath.

GATORS HAVE FEWEST TRANSFERS IN THE SEC

Here are the transfer numbers for the 16 SEC teams: Florida 6; Tennessee 7; Georgia 10; Alabama 11; Texas 11; Texas A&M 14; South Carolina 17; LSU 18; Auburn 20; Vanderbilt 20; Oklahoma 21; Missouri 22; Kentucky 25; Arkansas 28; Ole Miss 31; Mississippi State 32.

SEC FOOTBALL

No. 8 Alabama: Starting running back Jam Miller is expected to be out awhile after undergoing surgery for what has been described as an upper body injury. Alabama is hopeful Miller will be back in uniform for the Georgia game in Athens September 27. Miller gained 668 yards and scored seven touchdowns last year. First game: at Florida State

Arkansas: Running back Rodney Hill remains in a non-contact jersey. Right now the top running back is New Mexico State transfer Mike Washington, who gained 725 yards and scored eight touchdowns last year … Defensive tackle David Oke, a transfer from Abilene Christian might miss the season opener due to a meniscus issue. First game: Arkansas State (in Little Rock)

Auburn: Despite the defense dominating in scrimmages, Hugh Freeze isn’t concerned. “Our offense is really talented,” Freeze said after the Friday scrimmage. “It’s scary. It really is … I wouldn’t be alarmed at all … The offense has made plays. The defense has just controlled things more often, that’s all.” First game: at Baylor

No. 5 Georgia: At Georgia’s Saturday scrimmage, Gunner Stockton got limited reps. Redshirt freshman Ryan Puglisi got a large number of reps with the No. 1 and No. 2 offensive units. First game: Marshall

Kentucky: Transfers Seth McGowan and Dante Dowdell are the top two tailbacks. McGowan gained 823 yards and scored three touchdowns last year at New Mexico State. Dowdell gained 614 yards and scored 12 touchdowns at Nebraska … Incarnate Word transfer Zach Calzada has established himself as the clear No. 1 quarterback.  First game: Toledo

No. 9 LSU: LSU finished dead last in the SEC in rushing yardage last year. Brian Kelly has put emphasis on the running game in fall camp. Friday, Kelly said, “We have to be committed to those situations where everybody knows you’re running it and you still run it. I think that’s what we’re going into this season with: that mindset of there’s gonna be times that you know we’re running the ball and we have to impose our will on you.” First game: at Clemson

Mississippi State: HBC Jeff Lebby sees the defense making big progress through the first three weeks of practice. Following Saturday’s scrimmage, Lebby said, “I thought the energy, the toughness, the attitude the edge … man we are getting close to where we want to be from that standpoint. We got to continue to play cleaner and play better and create depth.” First game: at Southern Miss

Missouri: HBC Eli Drinkwitz has yet to make a decision on who will be the No. 1 quarterback, which is a battle between Penn State transfer Beau Pribula and Sam Horn. “I don’t have the timetable yet on the decision,” Drinkwitz said after the latest scrimmage. Over on the O-line, All-SEC guard Cayden Green has moved over to left tackle with Michigan transfer Dominic Guidice flopping from right guard to left guard. Redshirt junior Curtis Peagler has moved into the right guard slot. Three-year starter Connor Tollison is the center and Wake Forest transfer Keagan Trost is the right tackle. First game: Central Arkansas

No. 18 Oklahoma: Running back Jaydn Ott was dressed out for Oklahoma’s Saturday scrimmage. Ott didn’t participate in the scrimmage, but was involved in every other aspect of the practice … The starting offensive line right now is RT Michael Fausi, RG Heath Ozaeta, C Troy Everett, RG Febechi Nwaiwu and RT Logan Howland. First game: Illinois State

No. 21 Ole Miss: Tackles Jayden Williams and Diego Pounds didn’t participate in Saturday’s scrimmage. Guards PJ Wilkins and Delano Townsend were both injured. Townsend’s injury appears to be quite serious. First game: Georgia State

No. 13 South Carolina: Tackles Josiah Thompson (LT) and Cason Henry (RT) are returning starters on the offensive line, but the three interior positions are still up for grabs. Troy transfer Boaz Stanley seems to be the starter at center with Wake Forest transfer Nick Sharpe the right guard. Trovon Baugh, who got some starts last year, is fighting for the starting job at right guard. First game: Virginia Tech (in Atlanta)

No. 24 Tennessee: Joey Aguilar, last year’s starting QB at Appalachian State, who came to UT via UCLA, will start game one for the Vols. Aguilar won the job after battling with redshirt freshman Jake Merklinger and freshman George MacIntyre. At App State last year, Aguilar threw for 3,003 yards and 23 touchdowns with 14 interceptions. First game: Syracuse (in Atlanta)

No. 1 Texas: The Longhorns have so much depth that HBC Steve Sarkisian says, “Defensively, we have 15-16 starter type players.” A year ago, Texas led the SEC in total defense (283.4 yards per game) and finished third nationally. First game: at Ohio State

No. 19 Texas A&M: Here is the 2-deep on the O-line: LT Trey Zuhn/Deuce Featheree; LG Chase Bisontis/Blake Ivy; C Mark Nabou/Koli Faaiu; RG Ar’maj Reed-Adams/Tyler Thomas; RT Dametrious Crownover or Deuce Featheree. First game: Texas-San Antonio

Vanderbilt: At Saturday’s scrimmage, quarterback Diego Pavia completed 9-14 passes for 87 yards. Gabe Fields (57 yards, 1 TD) was the top running back and Edwards Witt (4 catches, 58 yards) was the top receiver. First game: Charleston Southern

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT

For its participation in the sign stealing scheme that covered multiple years, the NCAA fined Michigan $20 million, gave Jim Harbaugh a 10-year show cause and added one game – next year against a cupcake opponent, mind you – to the self-imposed 2-game suspension already levied on head ball coach Sheron Moore.

Big freaking deal.

Once again the NCAA shows that it’s all hat, no cattle. Michigan built a national championship program thanks to a sign stealing scheme that told the Michigan coaches what the other team was going to do whether on offense or defense. Jim Harbaugh can claim until he’s blue in the face that he didn’t know what was going on but he’s such a control freak. Most non-Michigan people would say that when it comes to stealing signs, Harbaugh’s lips moved so therefore you know he’s lying.

Michigan got a national championship out of it and most Michigan boosters would agree that it was a fair trade. This bit about Michigan’s name has been smeared is a load. The only thing that bothers the people who write the checks is that Michigan got caught. Even if the NCAA had vacated the championship do you think they would have cried foul? Of course not. Everybody in the world saw what happened on the field and that’s the only thing that matters.

The NCAA should have lowered the boom on Michigan. The consequences of wholesale cheating by Michigan are the equivalent of a pimple on an elephant’s butt. The athletic departments at schools like Kent State or Western Kentucky might go belly up if hit with a $20 million fine, but for Michigan a few phone calls start the bank wires that cover the fine. A deterrent for a school of Michigan’s stature would be the loss of 30 scholarships and limiting roster size to 65 for the next three years.

Once again, as it did when it had North Carolina dead to rights over an academic scandal that was carried on for 18 years, the NCAA chose to punt. As much as we need a new organization to replace the NCAA, this case makes us understand why there hasn’t been any significant movement in that direction. A new organization might have the teeth and the nads to stick it to cheaters. With the NCAA, if you have a big enough name you get a slap on the wrist with a Q-tip.