Thoughts of the Day: August 21, 2026

(Photo by Chris Spears)

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

Oddsmakers seem to be in agreement that anything more than 7.5 wins would constitute a brilliant first year on the job for Florida’s first year coach Jon Sumrall. Since arriving in Gainesville from Tulane, Sumrall has been quick to respond to anyone suggesting seven or eight wins that he came to Florida to win championships not win seven or eight games.

Winning seven or more games is a lofty goal for a team that finished 4-8 a year ago and has posted four losing seasons in the last five. Just getting to seven wins would ensure Florida’s second winning season since 2020. Eight would match the win totals of 2020 and 2024. Nine? Pipe dream. Stars and planets might have to align.

But are eight wins possible? How about nine? Possible, yes. Realistic? Eight more so than nine.

There is only one cupcake game – Sept. 12 at home against D1AA Campbell – on a schedule that includes five teams ranked among the Associated Press preseason top 25. The Gators play six games in The Swamp, five on the road and one in Atlanta against Georgia in which the tickets will be split evenly among the two teams. ESPN ranks Florida’s schedule the seventh toughest in the country while College Football News calls the UF schedule the eighth toughest.

Based on what we know now, the Gators should be favored in six of the 12 games, underdogs in four with two in the toss-up category. Win the games the Gators are favored in and the two toss-ups would result in eight wins, doubling last year’s total.

Here is a look at the schedule game-by-game.

Florida Atlantic: Win. The Gators have already been established as 26.5-point favorites.

Campbell: Win. D1AA team. Dial-a-score. Campbell went 2-10 last year.

At Auburn: Toss-up. Auburn is already a 1.5-point favorite. First SEC game and it’s on the road at a place where wins have been hard to come by traditionally. Auburn has had five straight losing seasons which is why Alex Golesh was hired to right a sinking ship. He brought Byrum Brown with him from South Florida. Golesh and Brown beat the Gators in The Swamp last year with Brown passing for 263 yards and running for another 63. The DC at Auburn is DJ Durkin, the DC at Florida in 2013-14 who was named interim for the bowl game after Will Muschamp was canned.

(9) Ole Miss: Loss. No line set on this one yet but if the Gators get a win at Auburn, this could move into the toss-up category. Florida will have to contend with the Ole Miss dynamic duo of quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy. Chambliss will be throwing to all new receivers so Ole Miss might go conservative and try to run it down Florida’s throats with a steady diet of Lacy.

At (25) Missouri: Toss-up but very winnable, especially if Ahmad Hardy still hasn’t hit full stride after recovering from a gunshot wound. Mizzou is very tough at home, 33-9 in the six years that Eli Drinkwitz has been the head coach. The Mizzou QB is expected to be Austin Simmons, who the Gators tried to recruit when he was prepping at Pahokee.

South Carolina: Win. The Gamecocks’ problems a year ago were largely on offense so Shane Beamer fired Mike Shula and hired Kendal Briles. Huge step up. As the OC at TCU the last three years, Briles put up lots of yards and scored lots of points with a QB that isn’t nearly as good as LaNorris Sellers, who could play his way into a top ten NFL Draft pick this year.

At (5) Texas: Loss. Texas has a real shot at winning the national championship because Steve Sarkisian has surrounded Arch Manning with outstanding talent plus brought in Will Muschamp to coach up his defense. Expect a vastly improved Arch Manning from the one who took a loss at The Swamp last year.

(3) Georgia (in Atlanta): Loss. Georgia has been frothing at the mouth thinking about getting the Gators out of Jacksonville. This year the Bulldogs will be the team coming in on the bus while the Gators have to fly into Atlanta. Georgia is a legitimate national championship threat.

(10) Oklahoma: Loss. The Sooners made the playoffs a year ago without a healthy John Mateer. If he’s healthy they could be very, very good. Brent Venables defenses are always formidable. If Mateer isn’t healthy or is having a bad year, this is a game the Gators could win.

At Kentucky: Win. A big game for both Jon Sumrall and DC Brad White. UK is Sumrall’s alma mammy and White was Mike Stoops defensive coordinator in Lexington the last several years. This will be a take no prisoners game for the Gators.

Vanderbilt: Win. Vandy won 10 games last year but that was with Diego Pavia at QB. Pavia and TE Eli Stowers are gone along with several other key players from a team that was good enough to make the playoff last year. Home field and finishing the season strong should motivate the Gators to win this one.

At Florida State: Win. The Seminoles went 5-7 last year but they could have just as easily finished 9-3 in the regular season. Does one year older make them one year better? And, if Florida beats FSU in Tallahassee then Mike Norvell’s tush will be as hot or hotter than your basic blowtorch.

ANOTHER COURT CASE FOR THE NCAA TO DEFEND

Just because the NCAA had an Ohio temporary restraining order set aside earlier this week until an appeal can be held doesn’t mean the lawsuits are going to stop. Thursday, a Louisiana court issued a TRO that will allow 30 former college football players to go back to school to play a fifth season. Among the 30 were Jack Pyburn, the former Florida and LSU defensive end now on the Tampa Bay Bucs roster, and DaeQuan Wright, the former Ole Miss tight end now with the Cleveland Browns. Former SMU running back TJ Hardin played in an NFL preseason game for Seattle before he was cut and former Ole Miss D-lineman Zxavien Harris was with the New Orleans Saints before he was also cut.

Immediately upon the TRO ruling, several players entered the transfer portal. The portal for football is also a mess for the NCAA since it ran from January 2-16. The NCAA invented a rule that would suspend a coach for half the season and fine a program 20 percent of its football budget for adding what it calls “ghost transfers” after the January portal window closes. The ghost transfer rule was addressed in the ruling by the Louisiana court.

Not part of the Thursday ruling in East Baton Rouge is a case involving LSU attempting to sign former Big East Player of the Year RJ Luis, who signed a two-way NBA contract, spent a year in the G-League and missed all of last season due to injury. That case will be heard Monday. LSU has only four players on its roster currently who are cleared to play next year. There is a challenge to the NCAA 5-for-5 rule by UCLA transfer Skyy Clark, four international players awaiting an eligibility ruling and Israeli pro Yam Madar, who was drafted by the Boston Celtics in 2020.

The NCAA will probably win cases that involve players who have signed contracts with the NFL, NBA or other professional sports. There is precedent for that (see Alabama and Charles Bediako). What the NCAA will find very difficult to continue challenging and defending is the ban on high school graduates from 2022 getting a fifth year of eligibility. The NCAA is claiming irreparable harm if these players get the fifth year but a Colorado Federal Court ruled that it is the players petitioning for the fifth year that will be harmed.

The NCAA can issue as many statements that it wants about “irreparable harm” but it continues a fight at least 18 cases in 15 courtrooms around the country with more cases ready to be filed as well as appeals all the way to the US Supreme Court if necessary. This is a never-ending fight against opponents every bit as determined to gain the extra year as the NCAA is at preventing it.

We are days away from first classes for the fall semester at most Division I schools, which means athletes enrolled and lives about to be disrupted if there is no definitive ruling. Football season begins in two weeks and basketball season begins the first week of November. If the NCAA were made up of leaders with functioning brains, it would see the futility of fighting. This is a no-win situation for an organization whose reputation is only slightly better than that of mass murderers awaiting the chair or a lethal injection.

Rather than fight it out, the smart thing to do would be to call in its attorneys and make the 5-for-5 rule retroactive, grandfathering in last year’s fourth-year athletes. This is, however, the NCAA, which, in its infinite wisdom, will not wave the white flag.  

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT:  Seven national championships and 11 Southeastern Conference titles cement Nick Saban’s place as the greatest college football coach of all time. He could still be coaching but chose to walk away while still on top of his game. His last national championship was the undefeated 2020 Alabama team. He was 36-6 during his last three seasons.

Just because he no longer coaches, his influence on the game is unmistakable. All you have to do is look at the top 12 teams in the most recent Associated Press poll where eight of the teams are led by branches off the Saban coaching tree.

Here is how it breaks down:

2. Oregon: Dan Lanning was a Saban grad assistant on the 2015 national championship team and then with Kirby Smart at Georgia from 2018-21. Career record: 48-8.

3. Georgia: Kirby Smart was with Saban at LSU in 2004, then at Alabama from 2007-16, part of four Alabama national championships. He has won two national titles at Georgia. Career record: 108-18.

5. Texas: Steve Sarkisian was Saban’s interim offensive coordinator in 2016 and the OC in 2019-20. Bama won the 2020 national title. At Texas he is 48-20, 89-50 overall.

6. Indiana: Curt Cignetti was the wide receivers coach and recruiting coordinator for Saban at Alabama from 2007-10, part of the 2009 national championship. Since leaving Alabama he’s been head coach at four schools. He won the 2025 national championship at Indiana with a 16-0 record. At Indiana he is 27-2, 146-37 career.

7. Miami: Mario Cristobal was Alabama’s assistant head coach, offensive line coach and recruiting coordinator from 2013-16, a coach on the 2015 national championship team. He led Miami to the national championship game last season. At Miami he is 37-19, career 97-79.

8. Texas A&M: Mike Elko falls falls under the Saban tree since he spent 2018-21 working as the defensive coordinator at A&M under head coach and former Saban offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher. At A&M he is 19-7, 35-16 overall.

9. Ole Miss: Pete Golding was Saban’s defensive coordinator from 2018-22 at Alabama, then the DC for Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss from 2023 working for Lane Kiffin. When Kiffin left for LSU, Golding became the interim head coach who was promoted to head coach after leading the Rebels to the College Football Playoff semifinals. Career record 2-1.

11. LSU: Lane Kiffin was Saban’s offensive coordinator from 2014-2016. Alabama won the 2015 national title. This is his first year at LSU. He went 55-19 at Ole Miss, career record 116-53.