Thoughts of the Day: August 24, 2025
Updated: Aug 25, 2025
A few thoughts to jump start your Sunday morning:
The 15th-ranked Florida Gators open the 2025 season with Long Island University Saturday night. Expectations are higher than they’ve been in years but even a brutal schedule is manageable. Here is a formula for winning 10 or more games in 2025. Win 10 and the Gators most likely make the College Football Playoff and possibly make it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game for the first time since 2020.
Offense
DJ Lagway: Complete 65 percent, average a minimum of 8.0 per attempt and reduce interceptions (9 last year) to five or fewer. Lagway makes good decisions at the line of scrimmage, stays injury free and understands that running out of bounds is better than taking a big hit.
Running game: Average 200 yards per game (161.2 last year) and at least 5.0 per carry. Jadan Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson combine for 1,800 yards and 20 touchdowns. KD Daniels becomes a Swiss Army Knife, a threat to run, catch the ball out of the backfield or line up outside.
Receivers: Average 14.5 yards or better per pass reception. J. Michael Sturdivant and Tre Wilson need to average somewhere near 20 yards per catch. Dallas Wilson and Vernell Brown III are factors in the passing game every game and Tank Hawkins becomes a scary deep threat. Tight ends Hayden Hansen and Tony Livingston need to catch at least 42 passes between them.
Offensive line: Give 16 or fewer sacks and dominate the fourth quarter so the Gators can grind and pound opponents into submission. Jake Slaughter handles nose tackles one-on-one and Austin Barber dominates edge rushers on the left side. Bryce Lovett becomes a consistent rock at right tackle and guards Knijeah Harris and Damieon George Jr. brutalize next to Slaughter.
Turnovers: Reduce from 19 last year to 12 or fewer.
Third down: Convert 45 percent or higher.
Time of possession: Help out the defense by averaging 33 minutes or more.
Defense
Against the run: Give up fewer than 110 yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry. Baylor transfer Brendan Bett and Michai Boireau make nose tackle a strength. Caleb Banks goes beast mode. Myles Graham and Aaron Chiles become tackling machines.
Against the pass: Allow 55 percent or fewer completions, fewer than 6.5 yards per pass attempt. Corners Devin Moore and Cormani McClain become one of the best tandems in the SEC while living life on an island. Safeties Sharif Denson, Bryce Thornton, Aaron Gates and Jordan Castell hit hard and are ball hawks.
Sacks: Last year the Gators had 19 sacks in their last four games to bring their total to 39. This year average at least four sacks per game in the regular season (48). Tyreak Sapp, George Gumbs Jr., TJ McCray, Kamran James and Jayden Woods require spend quality time in the opposing backfields.
Third down: Allow 35 percent or fewer third down conversions.
Turnovers: Last year the Gators recovered eight fumbles and picked off 16 passes. This year the Gators need at least 10 fumble recoveries and 17 or more interceptions.
Special Teams
Field goals/Extra points: Trey Smack was 18-21 a year ago. This year no misses less than 45 yards and no more than three misses in 25 attempts. No missed extra points.
Kickoffs/coverage: Last year 75 percent of Smack’s kickoffs were touchbacks. This year needs to be 80 percent or better. Give up fewer than 20 yards on returnable kickoffs.
Punts/coverage: Urban Meyer used to tell Chaz Henry to “make it wet.” In other words, kick it so high that it brings down rain and is un-returnable. Tommy Dorman averages 45 yards or better and the Gators give up fewer than 5.0 yards per punt return.
Returns: Average a minimum of 25 yards per kickoff return and at least 13 yards per punt return.
SEC FOOTBALL
No. 8 Alabama: Alabama’s projected starting line: C Parker Brailsford; G Geno Vandermark and Kam Dewberry; T Kaydyn Proctor and Wilkin Formby. Saturday: at Florida State
Arkansas: Monte Harris, a 30-year-old who spent 10 years playing professional baseball including parts of three seasons in the Major Leagues, is battling for a starting job at wide receiver. Saturday: vs. Alabama A&M
Auburn: When the season begins, Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels will be the backup QB to Jackson Arnold. However, freshman Deuce Knight is making enough strides that he could move past Daniels on the depth chart. Friday: at Baylor
No. 5 Georgia: The expected starters at wide receiver are California transfer Zachariah Branch, London Humphreys, who began his career at Vandy in 2023, and Texas A&M transfer Noah Thomas. For a school that dominates the recruiting rankings, it’s interesting that none of its starting receivers are of the home grown variety. Saturday: vs. Marshall
Kentucky: Kentucky (7.5-point favorite) and its inexperienced secondary will be tested in game one by Tampa-born QB Tucker Gleason, who threw for 2,808 yards and 24 touchcdowns last year. Saturday: vs. Toledo
No. 9 LSU: Only one starter returns in LSU’s secondary, which will be challenged by Clemson QB Cade Klubnik, who threw for 3,639 yards and 36 touchdowns last year. The Tigers lost 20 of last year’s 34 sacks to graduation. The Tigers will be going against a Clemson O-line that returns all five starters. Saturday: at No. 4 Clemson
Mississippi State: Mississippi State’s defense, which finished dead last in the SEC a year ago, has been revamped. The Bulldogs will be going against a Southern Miss offense that finished dead last in the Sun Belt and 131st nationally a year ago. Saturday: at Southern Miss
Missouri: Starting right guard Logan Reichert suffered a lower body injury that HBC Eli Drinkwitz says will keep him out 6-8 weeks. Backup center Tristan Wilson is expected to slide over and take over at right guard.Thursday: vs. Central Arkansas
No. 18 Oklahoma: The Sooners will have seven captains this season: QB John Mateer; C Troy Everett; DE R Mason Thomas; DT Gracen Halton; DT Damonic Williams; LB Kip Lewis; and S Robert Spears-Jennings. Saturday: vs. Illinois State
No. 21 Ole Miss: Starting QB Austin Simmons is only 19, but he already has graduated from Ole Miss. Simmons played in nine games as a freshman last year, completing 19-32 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns. Saturday: vs. Georgia State
No. 13 South Carolina: The interior of South Carolina’s defensive line will rely heavily on transfers Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy (Texas A&M), Troy Spikes (Georgia Southern) and Davonte Miles (Bowling Green). Monkell Goodwine and Nick Barrett are the only holdovers from last year’s defensive tackles. Sunday: vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta)
No. 24 Tennessee: Starting QB Joey Aguilar spent two years playing juco football, two years at Appalachian State where he was the starter, and then transferred to UCLA in the spring only to transfer to UT when former UT quarterback Nico Iamaleava transferred to UCLA. Saturday: vs. SaturSyracuse (in Atlanta)
No. 1 Texas: Troy transfer Matthew Caldwell seems to have solidified his position as the backup quarterback. Last year at Troy he threw for 1,608 yards and 13 touchdowns in 10 games. He also ran for five touchdowns. Saturday: at No. 3 Ohio State
No. 19 Texas A&M: The Aggie defensive unit should look like this for the season opener: DE Cashius Howell and Dayon Hayes; DT DJ Hicks and Albert Regis; JACK Rylan Kennedy; LB Taurean York and Scooby Williams; NICKEL Tyreek Chappell; CB Will Lee and Dezz Ricks or Julian Humphrey; S Dalton Brooks and Marcus Ratcliffe. Saturday: vs. Texas-San Antonio
Vanderbilt: For the Commodores to improve on last year’s 7-6 record, they will have to improve on last year’s 318.4 yards of offense per game, which ranked dead last in the Southeastern Conference and 123rdnationally. Saturday: vs. Charleston Southern
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT
The Big Ten, which has been openly critical about 8-game Southeastern Conference football schedules, won’t have that dog to kick around after 2026. The SEC will go to a 9-game schedule next year and it has nothing whatsoever to do with being fair to the Big Ten, which plays nine games. The SEC switch is first and foremost about the money it will make by adding a conference game while likely eliminating the paycheck game with some unlucky sap from D1AA. Secondly, it’s about the best way to deal with scheduling for a 16-team conference. Every team will have three opponents which will be home-and-home permanently. The other 12 teams will be played home and home at least once every four years. The fans win. They get a real football game and they get to see every team in the league on their home field at least once every four years.
Big Ten commish Tony Petiti has been pushing for a 4-4-2-1 format for the College Football Playoff, that would guarantee four teams from the Big Ten and four from the SEC every year. The ACC and Big 12 would only be guaranteed one team each in this format with the Group of Five getting one. Petiti isn’t talking about that final slot, which is essentially guaranteed for Notre Dame. The Big Ten still believes it can lure Notre Dame to join the Big Ten. Donkeys will fly first.
The Big Ten is going to lose this argument because the SEC, ACC, Big 12, Notre Dame and Group of Five all oppose Petiti’s proposal in favor of the Greg Sankey proposes 5-11. In the five 11 the five highest rated conference champions get in with 11 at-large selections.
Want to hear Petiti’s next genius proposal? He favors expanding the College Football Playoff to either 24 or 28 teams. Just what we need, mediocrity in the CFP, which is what that kind of expansion would ensure. Does anyone really want to see 7-5 teams in the playoff?
A better idea would be to stick with the current 12-team format for at least a couple more years. Tweak it a bit. Under the current format the four highest seeded teams get a first round bye but unlike seeds five through eight, they don’t get a home game. Their first game will be at a neutral site location as part of the bowl system. That’s unfair to their fan bases. If it means ditching four bowl games let it be, but give the fans of the top four seeds a home game.
Maybe in three or four years, expand to 16 teams. Instead of a 5-11 format, why not do something like a 6-10 or 7-9, which would allow more than one Group of Five conference in college football’s biggest dance.
Or maybe something like this. Reduce the number of Division I teams to between 90 and 96. Currently there are 68 teams that make up the Power Conferences plus Notre Dame. For a 96 team Division I, take the best teams from the American, Sun Belt, Mountain West, new Pac-12, MAC and Conference USA and merge them into two or three conferences. As for the leftovers, form a new Group of Five and fill it out with some new blood from the upper echelons of D1AA. Give them their own national championship. It’s win-win for everyone that way.
But, under no circumstance give in to the Big Ten. This is not a time for dumb ideas in college football and the Big Ten seems to be attempting to corner the
Spot the Ball, Go Gators !
Print doesn’t fit my screen
Money is always the driving force. If they go to 16 teams then no 1st round bye's and the top 4 ranked teams get a 1st round home game. As it is right now it is basically an invitational as after the conference champs the rest of the teams are chosen by a committee. Set the parameters and feed it into a computer and let the chips fall where they may.
All your numbers for the 2025 Gators are realistic aspirations and fit the prifile of a serious contending team. I’ll bet you did sime research into the offensive, defensive and special teams marks of the best. Thank you!
As for LSU, the Tigahs have four new starting O-linemen, too. As with LSU which features heralded Garrett Nussmeier, South Carolina offers stud QB LaNorris Sellers but too little otherwise. Both LSU and USCe are over-ranked. Georgia is, too, except for another lighter weight schedule. Dors Gunnar Stockton look like a QB who can lift a team with his play? Doubt it. JMHO!