Thoughts of the Day: August 4, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:

DEFENSE WILL GET BY WITH A LITTLE HELP FROM THE TRANSFER PORTAL

Florida’s 2021 defense might be the perfect example of how the NCAA transfer portal and subsequent changes to transfer eligibility rules has changed recruiting now and forever more. High school kids who require time to develop will still be the foundation of every roster, but the ability to plug and play to fill holes caused by injuries, transfers or just a lack of development will make the transfer portal a coach’s best friend if he has a good eye for finding kids who are just the right fit.

A year ago, Florida’s defense was statistically the worst in school history. Sure, there were a couple of games – Georgia is one that comes to mind immediately – when the Gators got the job done defensively, but there was never any consistency. That can be said almost across the board in college football as fears of COVID-19 kept teams from full contact practices due to the fear of injury at a time when roster management fluctuated due to the virus. However, Florida’s defense took the most serious serious plunge, dropping from No. 9 nationally in 2019 to No. 83 in 2020.

Only four starters return from last year’s disaster – Zachary Carter, Brenton Cox Jr., Ventrell Miller and Kaiir Elam – but all four are very good players who are going to be earning Sunday paychecks in the future. The problem, at least on paper, is the other seven. Dan Mullen and coordinator Todd Grantham could fill out the defense with a host of backups and newbies from solid recruiting classes but that might not improve the unit enough to challenge for a second straight SEC East title but thanks to the portal, there is an alternative and it’s actually going to be a blueprint for how coaches are going to recruit in the future. Instead of 25 high school kids signed every year, expect that number to dip to 17-20 with the rest coming from the transfer portal.

Mullen has been supplementing his recruiting classes with transfers since he arrived in 2018 with the likes of wide receivers Van Jefferson and Trevon Grimes (2018); linebackers Jonathan Greenard and Cox (2019); and offensive lineman Stewart Reese, wide receivers Justin Shorter and Jordan Pouncey and running back Lorenzo Lingard (2020). Jefferson and Grimes were 4-star recruits out of high school. Cox, Shorter and Lingard were 5-star recruits and Reese and Greenard were multi-year starters at their previous schools.

All those transfers came before the NCAA radically changed its policies that allow a one-time transfer without having to sit a year. Additionally, the Southeastern Conference changed its rules that allow intra-conference transfers immediate eligibility. So, you take changed policies that benefit the transfer and a coach who has already mastered finding kids from other schools who are the right fit at UF and you have the making of what may end up being a perfect storm for returning the UF defense back to the land of the living. When the Gators run out onto the field for their season opener with Florida Atlantic on September 4 as many as half the starters on defense will have begun their collegiate careers elsewhere.

DE: Zachary Carter DT: Daquan Newkirk (transferred from Auburn) DT: Antonio Valetino (transferred from Penn State) EDGE: Brenton Cox Jr. (transferred from Georgia) LB: Mohamoud Diabate LB: Ventrell Miller

LB: Diwun Black (juco) CB: Kaiir Elam CB: Jedarrius Perkins (transferred from Missouri)

STAR: Elijah Blades (transferred from Texas A&M) S: Trey Dean III S: Rashad Torrence

TELEVISION, TIMING AND SCHEDULING FOR A 16-TEAM SEC

Now that the shock of Texas and Oklahoma bolting the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference has worn off, it’s time to address the more difficult problems ahead, such as the timing of their departure from the Big 12 and how it affects television contracts, plus how a 16-team league will alter the way the SEC schedules football.

The timing of the departure from the Big 12 has yet to be determined. Contractually, Texas and Oklahoma are tied to the Big 12 until 2025 but having two lame duck programs dominating football five more years makes no sense whatsoever. For the Big 12 to survive this high profile divorce, it needs Texas and Oklahoma gone sooner and not later so it can pick up the $150 million or so in alimony and salvage its status as an autonomous Power 5 conference. The longer Texas and Oklahoma are in the Big 12, the less leverage the Big 12 will have in negotiating a television contract beyond 2025 when the deal with Fox and ESPN expires and the more other leagues will be able to dictate terms if the Big 12 comes calling. The sooner the Big 12 can either add schools or merge with another league like the American Athletic Conference the more likely it will be able to get a television contract that. That won’t make up all the revenue lost by Texas and Oklahoma departing but it will at least keep everybody afloat.

This is where things are a bit tricky for all parties involved.

Start with the SEC which has a contract with CBS for two more seasons, which is a problem if Texas and Oklahoma wish to join earlier than 2024, when ESPN owns sole broadcasting rights for the Southeastern Conference. It would seem that ESPN would have to buy out the 2022-23 SEC broadcast contract with CBS or else Texas and Oklahoma would be stuck in the Big 12 until 2024.

And, what happens if the Big 12 disintegrates after the 2021 season? That could happen if Kansas and Iowa State are asked to join the Big Ten and West Virginia gets an invitation to join the ACC. If extended invitations to leave the Big 12, Kansas, Iowa State and West Virginia are goners. Count on it. There is also the possibility that the Pac-12 might be interested in expanding to the Central Time Zone by adding Texas Tech, TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State but would that help the Pac-12 get a new media rights contract? Their contracts with ESPN and Fox expire in 2024, a year earlier than those in the Big 12.

Of course, if any of these possibilities become reality the Big 12 will fall completely apart. That would solve the divorce settlement for Texas and Oklahoma, but how will CBS and ESPN deal with two new members in the Southeastern Conference?

For the moment and until bright minds get together to figure things out with the bankers and networks who pay for all this, think 2024 as the first football season when Texas and Oklahoma compete in the SEC.

That brings us to scheduling. Currently, the SEC operates two 7-team divisions. If the league wishes to remain in a two-division format, then it’s a simple enough matter to shuffle Alabama and Auburn to the East, Missouri to the West and add Oklahoma and Texas to the West. Except for one problem. SEC teams play an 8-game schedule, six against the teams in their division and two against the other division with one permanent opponent from the other division. That’s actually a scheduling nightmare since it can take years to play every team in the other division home and home. The one permanent opponent is necessary since it allows inter-division rivalry games like Alabama-Tennessee and Georgia-Auburn to continue. In eight game divisions, to keep the rivalry games and play at least one other opponent from the other division it would mean expanding to 9-game schedules.

The greatest drawback of the division format is that it prevents scheduling the best against the best in so many cases. For example, Alabama rarely plays Georgia or Florida. LSU rarely plays Georgia and Florida rarely plays Auburn. With Texas and Oklahoma coming in as national brands, divisional scheduling would prevent a lot of great television matchups that drive the SEC brand nationally and that is something that needs to change.

There are other proposals that ensure every team in the SEC will play every other team in the league on a regular basis but none of them are without some sort of drawback. However, every single model that works with 16 teams does expand the schedule to nine conference games.

Here is a look at the three most prominent scheduling models that are currently out there.

DIVISIONS

SEC East

Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Auburn

SEC West

Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma

The only real change in the division format would be for Missouri to move from the East to the West, which is where it should be now anyway.

4-TEAM PODS

Pod 1: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee

Pod 2: Alabama, Auburn, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

Pod 3: Ole Miss, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri

Pod 4: Arkansas, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma

The pod system divides the league into four 4-team groups or pods. For this to work, the schedule would have to increase to nine games. There are two ways to make this system work. One would be play every team in your pod on a home and away basis, then play two teams each from the other three pods for a nine-game schedule that would allow every team to play every team in the league home and away every four years (except neutral site games like Florida-Georgia, Texas-Oklahoma and Texas A&M-Arkansas). The problem with this concept is some traditional rivalries would be eliminated like Georgia-Auburn and Alabama-Tennessee.

The way to preserve the rivalries while operating out of a pod system would be for every team in the league to have a permanent rival from one of the other three pods. Here is how it might work for the teams in Pod 1.

Florida: Kentucky, LSU, Arkansas

Georgia: Auburn, Ole Miss, Oklahoma

South Carolina: Kentucky, Mississippi State, Texas A&M

Tennessee: Vanderbilt, Missouri, Texas

In this system, there are three games against the members of your pod, games against the three permanent rivals from the other pods and then home and home against one of the three other teams in each pod. In this scenario, every team would play every team in the league home and away every six years. While it would preserve the rivalry games, from a television scheduling standpoint, playing every team home and away every four years is a better scenario.

THREE PERMANENT RIVALS AND NO DIVISIONS

This may end up being the best way to do it. Each team in the league would have three permanent rivals, then there would be six games scheduled home and away for two years followed by six games home and away against the other six teams in the league. Here is how Andy Staples of The Athletic sees the permanent rivals for each team:

Alabama: Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee

Arkansas: Kentucky, Missouri, Texas

Auburn: Alabama, Georgia, Vanderbilt

Florida: Georgia, Tennessee, LSU

Georgia: Auburn, Florida, South Carolina

Kentucky: Arkansas, Mississippi State, South Carolina

LSU: Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Mississippi State: Alabama, Kentucky, Ole Miss

Missouri: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

Oklahoma: Missouri, Ole Miss, Texas

Ole Miss: LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma

South Carolina: Georgia, Kentucky, Vanderbilt

Tennessee: Alabama, Florida, Vanderbilt

Texas: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M

Texas A&M: LSU, Missouri, Texas

Vanderbilt: Auburn, South Carolina, Tennessee

Three permanent opponents is probably the best format although the Staples suggestion of Alabama playing Auburn, Tennessee and Mississippi State will draw howls particularly since Florida has to play LSU and Georgia and Texas would have to play Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Who plays who can be arranged in a more equitable fashion perhaps, but it should be noted that every team would play every other team in the league home and away at least once every four years so it’s not like it’s possible to duck tough games.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Back in 1990 when then SEC commissioner Roy Kramer wanted to expand the league to 12 teams so it could play the first conference championship game, the first two choices were Florida State and Miami. Florida State was just three years into its dynasty run of 14 straight top four finishes with a pair of national championships mixed in. Miami had already won three national championships and would win one more in 1991. FSU said no thanks to the offer and joined the ACC. Bobby Bowden defended the choice by saying the ACC was the easier path to national championships. Miami joined the Big East and stayed there until 2004 when it joined the ACC. Those moves probably seemed like a good idea at the moment, but both FSU and Miami are probably asking themselves what the hell were we thinking? The ACC is a financial bottom feeder that is locked into a deal with ESPN until 2036 that ESPN isn’t about to renegotiate. Miami and FSU pulled in $32.3 million from their media contract last year. Meanwhile every school in the SEC got paid $44.6 million. When the new contract with ESPN kicks in every school in the SEC will make somewhere around $65 million and that’s without factoring in Texas and Oklahoma. There are estimates that the amended contract to include Texas and Oklahoma will result in payouts of more than $70 million a year. FSU and Miami would swim naked through a sewer to get into the SEC, which isn’t going to be asking a second time. Think of the SEC as the penthouse. Think of the ACC as a first-floor efficiency.