Thoughts of the Day: August 5, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Thursday morning:

AS CAMPS PREPARE TO OPEN, A BIG QUESTION FOR EVERY SEC TEAM

A sure sign that college football is about to get back to normal is the press conference that will be held at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at 11 a.m. Dan Mullen and several UF players will be talking with media actually present. This isn’t one of those ZOOM calls that we got used to last year at the height of the pandemic, but a real live press conference. What it tells us is expectations are that we are full speed ahead for a normal season in 2021.

There are two big questions Mullen can expect to be asked more than once today: (1) Can Emory Jones keep Florida’s offense humming along and (2) can Todd Grantham’s defense bounce back from last year’s disaster? Mullen is certainly going to stand by his man whether it’s Jones or Grantham. For now at least. This is August and it’s all talk until the whistle blows and the foot hits the football the first time on September 4. Then and only then might the answers change.

Because I know the stock answer that will come from Florida’s HBC about Jones and Grantham, the big question for me is how much better should the Gators be in terms of strength and conditioning this year compared to 2020 when there was no spring practice and no offseason program for physical development? I’m of the opinion that the offense will be fine whether it’s Emory Jones or Anthony Richardson at quarterback. I’m also of the opinion that the defense is going to improve dramatically and that Kaiir Elam and Ventrell Miller (and others) could have All-SEC or better seasons. What I don’t know is how the Gators responded to Nick Savage and if he has the defensive guys bigger, stronger, faster and readier to have a big year than last.

THE REST OF THE SEC

Alabama: The defense is stacked with seven returning starters along with stud Tennessee transfer Henry To’o To’o. All the questions are on the offensive side where Bryce Young takes over as the starter at quarterback. The big question for Alabama’s offense is how will they adapt to new coordinator Bill O’Brien? O’Brien hasn’t coached at the college level since 2012-13 when he was the head coach at Penn State. O’Brien’s Penn State offenses weren’t exactly dynamic, nor were his offenses with the Houston Texans, where he was the head coach from 2014 until he was fired last year. Alabama has a lot of talent, but not nearly as much as there was on hand last year. Combine that with a brand new coordinator who isn’t exactly known for his X and O wizardry and it’s enough to raise some eyebrows.

Arkansas: The Razorbacks return 17 starters, eight on offense and nine on defense, the most of any team in the SEC West. With Kendal Briles calling the plays, there is a lot of confidence that the offense will do well even with a new starter at QB in KJ Jefferson. The questions are over on the defensive side where former Missouri head coach Barry Odom is the coordinator. When the Hogs held Georgia to 37 points in last year’s season opener and followed that up by intercepting three Mississippi State passes and six against Ole Miss, people were singing Odom’s praises. However, in the four most important games after that, Arkansas gave up 43 (Texas A&M), 63 (Florida), 50 (Missouri) and 52 (Alabama). Fan expectations are the highest they’ve been in years in Fayette Nam, but how well the Hogs do has everything to do with how well the defense plays. If the defense makes quantum leaps from the end of 2020 disaster, Arkansas thinks it could go bowling.

Auburn: Bo Nix returns for his third year as the starting quarterback. He is the only starting QB in the league who owns a win over Alabama. Those two facts alone should rank Nix right at the top of the quarterback rankings in the SEC, but Nix has flatlined when it comes to making progress the last two years in large part because his mechanics stink and he is so inconsistent as a decision-maker. Nix has a new offensive coordinator in Mike Bobo, the same Mike Bobo who started Colorado State transfer Collin Hill over Ryan Hilinski last year at South Carolina, a move that had plenty to do with South Carolina firing Will Muschamp. Bobo’s job No. 1 is to exorcise the demons of inconsistency that have plagued Nix the next two years. That’s not an easy task and it raises this question: How long will Auburn stick with Nix when LSU transfer TJ Finley is standing on the sideline piloting a clipboard? And, how will such a move to Finley received by the Auburn faithful since Nix is a legacy whose dad led the Tigers to a 20-game winning streak playing for Little Terry Bowden back in the 1990s?

Georgia: It’s another year and once again Georgia is being hyped as a team way too talented to miss out on the College Football Playoff. And, once again they have their Moses to lead them to the Promised Land. Last year it was the forgettable Jamie Newman, hyped as Heisman candidate only to opt out for the entire season in August, allegedly for COVID-19 concerns but more likely the fact he was being outplayed in scrimmages by Stetson (The Hat) Bennett IV and the equally less impressive D’Wan Mathis. This year’s Moses is JT Daniels, who was cleared to play before last year’s Auburn game but curiously was held out until after the Poodles had lost to Florida. He looked brilliant in three starts against bottom feeders and had some rather shaky moments in the Peach Bowl win over a Cincinnati team Alabama and Florida would have lit up for 50 or more. There are only two decent teams on the Georgia schedule (Clemson and Florida) so Daniels could throw for a bazillion yards and still be the same quarterback who was sacked early and often in his Southern Cal days because he holds onto the ball way too long and can’t run. So, the question heading into the season is JT the BMOC who can lead UG to the CFP and win an NC?

Kentucky: The last time Kentucky averaged more than 200 passing yards per game was 2015. Only once in Mark Stoops’ 8-year tenure as the UK head coach have the Wildcats averaged more than 400 yards per game of offense. They have never thrown 20 touchdown passes in a season since Stoops took over. They have had only one season when they averaged 30 points a game. In the last four years, especially, the offense has been ground and pound. In the SEC that will get you only so far which is why Stoops has hired former Los Angeles Rams assistant Liam Coen to rejuvenate the offense with some pro principles. It sounds good, but does Coen have a quarterback capable of lighting up another team with his arm? Maybe a better question is will Mark Stoops stray too far from his ground and pound roots?

LSU: A year ago, Coach O was the toast of college football after turning all the doubters into believers with a magical 15-0 run to the national championship in 2019. No one holds last year’s 5-5 record against Coach O since the Tigers essentially lost an NFL team from 2019. There is plenty of talent to turn the Tigers into a championship contender in 2021 even with Myles Brennan going down a couple of days ago with a broken arm that has required surgery. The big question for LSU is whether Coach O can survive the season? If he goes down, who will be the culprit: the NCAA or Title IX?

Mississippi State: When you consider Mike Leach was trying to fit a square peg into a round hole last year, that 4-7 record in his first year at MSU doesn’t seem so bad. Leach took over a team that was geared to run the ball and introduced the Air Raid, which rarely runs. And somehow the Bulldogs were three plays away from a 7-win season. If it’s a typical second year under Leach, the offense will improve dramatically from 2020. The defense, which returns eight starters, wasn’t all that bad. Can they lop a touchdown a game off last year’s 28.1 points allowed and perhaps give Leach’s offense better field position in 2021?

Missouri: In their final three games of 2020, Missouri’s defense gave up 48, 49 and 51 points. It doesn’t take a rocket surgeon or a brain scientist to figure out that’s where the Tigers have to improve in 2021. There’s just one problem. Only five starters return from that unit and one of the MIAs is linebacker Nick Bolton, who is going to pick up an NFL paycheck. The offense will be fine with quarterback Connor Bazelac running the show. Can the defense keep opponents out of the end zone?

Ole Miss: Everybody knows Lane Kiffin is one of the more brilliant offensive minds in all of college football and that he’s got a legit Heisman candidate in QB Matt Corral. Everybody also knows that the Ole Miss defense stunk last year but since we don’t know if they have good enough personnel to improve the defense significantly they’ll need to win games by shootout most likely. That raises the question what to do with John Rhys Plumlee? If you want an option QB who can flat out fly, he’s your guy. He’s too good an athlete to keep on the bench. Can Kiffin turn Plumlee into a Percy Position kind of guy who drives defensive coordinators crazy? If Kiffin can do that the Ole Miss offense could go from scary to frightening.

South Carolina: Other than Vanderbilt, this is the worst job in the SEC. Yes, Steve Spurrier had four straight seasons in which he won 10 or more games, but he’s been gone awhile and it’s back to mediocrity in Columbia, which brings us to new head coach Shane Beamer. He’s a fine recruiter and a great special teams guy but he’s never been a head coach before. Think about it. Special teams guy. Never been a head coach before. Now gets his first gig in the SEC. Sounds like Ron Zook only Zook was at Florida where it’s possible to win. Can Beamer win more than three games this year? If he does he could be SEC coach of the year.

Tennessee: To Josh Heupel’s credit, he left Randy Shannon back in Orlando and didn’t bring him to Knoxville to coordinate the defense. That alone proves that Heupel does use his brain for something besides parting his ears. Heupel is a renowned play caller who has put points on the scoreboard everywhere he has coached, whether as an OC or HBC. If he gets the right personnel, his offenses will score plenty at UT. The problem in Knoxville is the personnel. More than 30 have been dismissed, transferred out or asked release from their letters of intent so it’s going to take awhile to stack the roster. The question is how long a leash will impatient Vol fans give him? He’s safe this year but how much longer?

Texas A&M: This is year four of Jimbo Fisher’s 10-year, $75 million deal to coach the Aggies. The Aggies are better now than they were when Jimbo took over, but they still haven’t come close to winning the SEC West much less the league championship. With Texas and Oklahoma joining the SEC in the very near future, Aggie fans are likely to get very nervous and start feeling inferior once again, which had everything to do with Texas A&M leaving the Big 12 for the SEC back in 2012. The expectations for Jimbo are already through the roof. Are they about to increase exponentially with Texas and Oklahoma joining the league? Will Jimbo be feeling the heat if he goes 9-3 or 8-4?

Vanderbilt: Vanderbilt is coming off an 0-9 season and hasn’t had a winning record since James Franklin’s final year in 2014. The Commodores aren’t going to have a winning record this year either even though everyone in Nashville is thrilled that former walk-on fullback Clark Lea is now the HBC. Fortunately for Lea, the chardonnay and brie tailgate set at Vandy considers firing a coach such a distasteful thing so his job is safe for probably six or seven years at least. A lot of promises were made to lure Lea from the comfort of his Notre Dame DC job to Vandy. The question of questions is will Vanderbilt actually keep its promises and bring its football program out of the dark ages?

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: In the latest episode of “Who Can We Blame for the Demise of the Big 12,” US Senator Roger Marshall (R-KS) is asking the Department of Justice to investigate whether ESPN engaged in “anti-competitive or illegal behavior” to assist Texas and Oklahoma bolting to the SEC. It seems everyone is pointing a finger somewhere except at Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby. Oklahoma president Joseph Harroz Jr. says it was back in 2016-18 when Texas and Oklahoma started believing the Big 12 was heading for disaster in the future and that if something wasn’t done in a hurry, the league would eventually collapse. Questions need to be asked why didn’t Bowlsby and the rest of the league see this coming?