Thoughts of the Day: December 8, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:

THINGS WILL GET WORSE BEFORE THEY GET BETTER

With the Tuesday de-commitments of quarterback Nick Evers and wide receiver CJ Smith, Florida’s 2022 recruiting class is officially in free fall. With only a week remaining before the early signing date, it’s very difficult to imagine that Billy Napier is going to have much chance to salvage much of anything on the recruiting trail in the immediate future. Based on his remarks at his introductory press conference Sunday night, it’s also difficult to imagine that Napier expected anything less, particularly since he’s already dismissed the previous coaching staff and he only has two assistants working the recruits.

“So, we’re going to evaluate the situation a little bit this week over the next 10 days or so, but you can expect us to be very conservative, very patient, trying to position ourselves for post-signing day to evaluate all the players that are left over, all the players in the transfer portal,” Napier said Sunday night. “And then when we do have our entire staff and organization put together, position ourselves for some really strong weekends in January, and then try to close strong in February.

“But reality is you’re getting in the game and there’s like three minutes left in the fourth quarter and I think the last thing we need to do here is make some mistakes. So, we’ll probably – I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t sign many at all to be honest with you, but there may be a few out there that are willing to jump in here in the last minute.”

Translation: We’re going to bring in players that fit what we want to do at the University of Florida. We’re not going take chances loading up in the early signing date with players recruited by the previous staff who may not be a good fit for what we want to do.

Unless Napier is a pied piper who can get kids to de-commit and follow him to Florida, December 15 will be grim, but if you’ve followed Napier as a recruiter at Clemson and Alabama and then watched how he filled his Louisiana classes with kids who were right for his system, then you should also know this – it will get better.

Just not immediately.

UNF A MUST WIN? YOU BETCHA A couple of thoughts kept running through my head Monday night when I watched the Gators (6-2) sink like the Titanic against previously winless Texas Southern. My first thought was this was the basketball equivalent of the 2013 football loss to Georgia Southern. Georgia Southern was D1AA at the time. The Eagles beat the Gators, 26-20, at Florida Field without completing a pass. If they had such a thing as D1AA in college basketball, then Texas Southern would be D1AA.

My second thought again was tied to Florida football. I often wondered how it is that the Gators could outplay Alabama for three quarters and lose by two points, then go down in flames by 23 points to South Carolina? Some things just don’t make sense. How could the Gators out-tough both Florida State and Ohio State for 40 full minutes only to spend 40 minutes of complete futility against a Texas Southern team that doesn’t have a single player on its roster that could even dress out for either FSU or the Buckeyes?

Here are the numbers that just blow my mind: In the last two games, both losses (Oklahoma and Texas Southern), the Gators have hit 9-48 from the 3-point line and they have only 17 assists compared to 26 turnovers. Texas Southern doubled up the Gators in rebounds – 46-23.

And then there are the things that don’t show up in the box score. Things like getting outhustled to just about every loose ball. Things like trying to grab rebounds with one hand instead of grabbing them with two to secure the ball. Getting physically shoved off the blocks and off the 3-point line. Reaching instead of moving feet defensively.

I like Mike White personally. I thought he had put together the kind of team that had the defensive intensity to win basketball games even when the shots weren’t falling. Then I saw the Oklahoma game. Even worse, I then saw the Texas Southern game, a game in which his team was outplayed and he was completely outcoached. Now I have genuine concerns because we haven’t even gotten to the SEC portion of the schedule and folks, the SEC might be the best league top to bottom in the entire country this year. There are four teams in the league that have a legitimate chance to get to the final four – Alabama, Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee.

It’s difficult to call tonight’s game at the O-Dome (7 p.m., SEC Network) with North Florida (2-8) a must win, but that’s exactly what it is. Not only is it a must win, it’s a game that the Gators have to stomp the basketball life out of the visiting Ospreys. This can’t be even remotely close.

SEC BASKETBALL Tuesday’s scores: No. 10 Kentucky (7-1) 76, Southern (3-6) 64; No. 12 Arkansas (9-0) 86; Charlotte (4-4) 66; Texas Tech (7-1) 57, No. 13 Tennessee (6-2) 52; Georgia (4-5) 69, Jacksonville (4-3) 58; Temple (6-3) 72, Vanderbilt (5-3) 68 (OT); Missouri (5-4) 72, Eastern Illinois (2-8) 44

Wednesday’s games: North Florida (2-8) at No. 20 FLORIDA (6-2)

AIDAN HUTCHINSON VS. WILL ANDERSON Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson is a Heisman finalist. He is an exceptional player on a great team. In 2021 he had 14 sacks for -73 yards in losses, 15.5 tackles for loss (sacks included) for -75 yards, 55 tackles, three pass breakups, 12 QB hurries and two forced fumbles. No question those are fine stats.

Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson leads the nation in sacks with 15.5 for -96 yards in losses which leads the nation. He has 31.5 tackles for loss for -134 yards which also leads the nation. He has 91 tackles, two pass breakups and nine QB hurries.

Hutchinson is a fine player on a playoff team that won the Big Ten championship. Anderson is a fine player on the No. 1 seeded team in the playoffs that won the SEC championship. Stats don’t always tell the entire story, but when you’re talking about guys that come off the edge, stats are very telling.

In the case of Aidan Hutchinson vs. Will Anderson, I’m still trying to figure out how Hutchinson has a chance to win the Heisman Trophy and Will Anderson doesn’t. I realize that Anderson plays on the same team as Bryce Young, who will probably win the Heisman, but two Alabama players were finalists last year. There should be two this year as well.

NOTABLE QUARTERBACKS IN THE TRANSFER PORTAL

Dillon Gabriel, UCF: He’s considered a mortal lock to transfer to Ole Miss, but what if Jeff Lebby takes the offensive coordinator job at Oklahoma? Lebby was Gabriel’s OC/QB coach two years at UCF. He had already thrown for 818 yards and nine TDs when he went down with a broken collarbone in game three in 2021. He has thrown for 8,041 yards and 70 touchdowns. If Lebby and Lane Kiffin stay together at Ole Miss Gabriel could set records.

Max Johnson, LSU: It only took him a week of the Brian Kelly era at LSU to go into the transfer portal. He’s a big arm lefty pocket passer who isn’t very mobile so he will need to find a drop back style offense to transfer into. He threw for 27 touchdowns in 2021 and for his career he has 3,883 yards and 35 TDs. He has three years of eligibility. Harrison Bailey, Tennessee: He’s big, strong, has a power arm and four years of eligibility due to the COVID year and playing in only one game in 2021. He was a 4-star recruit out of Marietta, Georgia. He had offers from Alabama, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Ohio State and Oklahoma. In seven collegiate games at Tennessee he threw for four touchdowns and 594 yards.

Chubba Purdy, Florida State: The younger brother of Iowa State star QB Brock Purdy, he was a 4-star recruit out of high school in Arizona who just never really got a chance to play. He threw for 219 yards and two TDs in 2020 in three games behind a horrendous O-line. He was 5-5 in 2021 for 98 yards and two TDs. There is a lot of SEC interest but wouldn’t surprise anyone if he wound up in the Big 12 either at Iowa State or Kansas State. He has four years of eligibility remaining.

Michael Penix, Indiana: Even though next year will be his fifth since he left high school in Tampa, he has two years of eligibility remaining due to the COVID year. Plenty of talent, but can he stay healthy? He’s had three straight seasons end because of injury. He’s thrown for 29 touchdowns and 4,197 yards.

Jack Miller, Ohio State: He was a 4-star recruit out of high school but he had the misfortune of being in the same recruiting class with CJ Stroud and then the Buckeyes brought in 5-stars Kyle McCord and Quinn Ewers. He had offers from Alabama, Michigan, LSU, Florida State and Auburn among others out of high school. He has four years of eligibility remaining.

Myles Brennan, LSU: After waiting three years for his chance in 2020, he suffered a season ending injury after 1,112 yards and 11 TDPs through 2-1/2 games. He missed all of 2021 with an upper arm injury. He has the big arm and he’s quite accurate, but can he stay healthy? Someone will take a chance, but unlikely in the SEC or a power conference.

Adrian Martinez, Nebraska: Has any quarterback in recent memory led more stirring comebacks only to come up seven or fewer points short than Martinez? Four years playing for the Fighting Frosts saw him pass for 8,495 yards and 45 TDs (30 picks) while running for 2,288 yards and 35 TDs. He’s from Fresno, California? Does he go home? His style actually fits Chip Kelly perfectly but is Kelly going to be at UCLA or Oregon?

Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma: He was the preseason Heisman favorite, but Lincoln Riley benched him. Now Riley is at Southern Cal. Wouldn’t it be ironic if Rattler wound up at UCLA? A lot of folks are predicting that’s where he tries to put his career back together. He threw for 4,595 yards and 40 TDs at Oklahoma and ran for nine more TDs.

Quinn Ewers, Ohio State: He skipped his senior year in high school to get a 7-figure NIL deal and then showed up in August at Ohio State where he spent the season as the scout team QB. He took two snaps at the end of the Buckeyes’ 56-7 win over Michigan State. Scuttlebutt has it that his Ohio State teammates weren’t impressed with his attitude or his NIL deal. Wherever he goes he will have to win over a locker room and that might not be easy. He would have been the No. 1 prospect in the 2022 recruiting class. He could end up at Texas Tech, particularly since his high school coach (Riley Dodge) is expected to get a job on Joey McGuire’s staff. McGuire has added Zach Kittley as his offensive coordinator. With Kittley calling the plays at Western Kentucky, Bailey Zappe threw for 5,545 yards and 56 touchdowns in 2021.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: If you have spent any time listening to sports talk on either television or radio since Saturday, then you’ve heard a lot of “experts” blame Kirby Smart for not replacing Stetson Bennett IV with JT Daniels in Georgia’s 41-24 loss to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Excuse me, but wasn’t that a “generational defense” that Alabama shredded for 536 yards? Wasn’t that an Alabama offensive line that gave up seven sacks the week before to Auburn that stonewalled the Georgia defensive front? What are those brown stains on the seat of the pants of the Georgia safeties futilely chasing Jameson Williams? The last time I checked, Stetson Bennett IV put up 24 points on Alabama, which would have been more than enough to win the game if Kirby Smart’s defense had bothered to show up.