Thoughts of the Day: July 23, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

SEC EXPANSION, PART DEUX

Wednesday, Texas and Oklahoma leaving the Big 12 for the SEC was a rather juicy rumor. Today it seems that it’s not a rumor anymore, but something that seems almost inevitable. Here are a few reasons why I think it will happen:

1. Pete Thamel of Yahoo Sports, who is one of the college sports’ most connected sources for information, quoted an unnamed but high-ranking college official who offered this: “I think it’s going to happen, and it’s the beginning of a lot of dominoes.” I can’t disagree. I can’t see the SEC making a major move without leagues like the Big Ten and ACC making some sort of counter move. From the moment the announcement is made that Texas and Oklahoma are officially SEC-bound, the landscape of college sports is going to change once again. It’s already changed due to the aftermath of COVID-19, new transfer rules and now name, image and likeness (NIL) which is already creating teenaged millionaires like Alabama quarterback Bryce Young who has never started a collegiate game.

2. The cost to leave the Big 12 won’t be cheap – something like $76 million each, or the cost of two years of television revenue – but there are oil people at both Texas and Oklahoma who can write a check for that much without making much of a dent in their bottom lines. And, when you consider their yearly SEC paycheck will be something in the range of $25 million a year more than they’re making now in the Big 12 then it won’t take long to make up the difference. Money will not stop Texas or Oklahoma from leaving but it is definitely one of the deciding factors of why the SEC is so attractive.

3. Now, Texas A&M is rather perturbed that the SEC would dare add Texas. The Aggies think there is a gentleman’s agreement that makes them the only SEC team in the state of Texas, but this isn’t about any gentleman’s agreement. It’s all about the money. To prevent Texas and Oklahoma from joining the SEC the Aggies would have to find two more votes among their SEC brethren to halt it. Don’t count on that happening. The Aggies may not need the money but the presidents of the other 13 SEC schools are all too aware of the financial hit they took due to COVID-19 last year. That is why they’re all on board with expanding the College Football Playoff from four to 12 teams and that’s also why there aren’t enough votes to prevent Texas and Oklahoma from joining the SEC. The money that Texas and Oklahoma will help to bring in to the SEC coffers will help every single school make up for the lost COVID-19 dollars.

4. Who would the Aggies go after to stop expansion? Some think Arkansas might be opposed but Razorback fans will be overjoyed at the possibility of bringing back the Texas-Arkansas rivalry, which at one time was considered one of the top three or four rivalry games in all of college football. Arkansas has been in the SEC since 1992 and in many ways it’s still considered the league’s redheaded stepchild. It must also be noted that Arkansas is only a little more than three hours away from Norman, Oklahoma. Another suggestion is that Missouri, which was in the Big 12 prior to bolting for the SEC, would be opposed. First and foremost, Mizzou can’t afford to say no from a strictly financial standpoint. Secondly, if Arkansas is the redheaded stepchild of the SEC, then Mizzou is Little Orphan Annie. Mizzou fans probably find much more in common with former Big 12 brethren Texas and Oklahoma than they do Florida and South Carolina.

5. Andy Staples of The Athletic writes that there are only two conferences that Texas could join: The SEC and the ACC. The reason is the Longhorn Network which is in partnership with ESPN/Disney. The networks own the entire ACC media rights and will own the entire SEC media rights once the new deal with the SEC goes into effect in 2024. The ACC is tied into a mediocre deal until 2036 and can’t compete with the SEC, which will be making close to $30 million a year more per school than the ACC pays out. Texas and Oklahoma have nothing in common with the ACC and they’re not going to sign on with a league where they make less money than they are already making in the Big 12. Hellooooo SEC.

6. Texas is the most important sports franchise in the nation’s second most populous state. The Longhorns are bigger than the Dallas Cowboys or any other professional franchise in the state and they are a true national brand. Although Oklahoma only ranks 28th nationally in terms of population, the Oklahoma Sooners are also a national brand, certainly larger than all but Alabama, Florida, Georgia and LSU in the Southeastern Conference. In other words, the footprint of Texas and Oklahoma.

7. New Texas basketball coach Chris Beard has in a very short time put together a transfer class that will make the Longhorns a national championship contender immediately. Beard turned Texas Tech into a national power and if he can do that in Lubbock, then imagine what he can do in Austin. He made a Final Four at Texas Tech. He can win national championships at Texas. He’s that good a coach and he’s got a state that has an increasing number of top tier basketball players that he can recruit. Oklahoma replaced the retiring Lon Kruger with Porter Moser, who got Loyola of Chicago to an unlikely Final Four in 2019. If Moser can make the Final Four at a small Catholic school in Chicago, imagine the potential he has at Oklahoma. The Big 12 is a great basketball league, but the SEC is more than just Kentucky. This is league that is growing very strong from top to bottom and the addition of Texas and Oklahoma can only help strengthen the SEC in terms of national perception.

8. The SEC is already the nation’s top baseball and softball conference. Texas and Oklahoma bring a combined (Texas 6, Oklahoma 2) eight national championships in baseball. Oklahoma has won five national championships in softball. Texas has won an astounding 15 NCAA championships in men’s swimming and nine in women’s swimming.

9. One thing that tends to be overlooked when talking about Texas and Oklahoma leaving is game day atmosphere. In the Big 12, only Texas (100,119 capacity) and Oklahoma (80,126) have stadiums that seat more than the 60,454 at Texas Tech. If they joined the SEC, Texas would be the fifth largest stadium and Oklahoma would be 10th. Arkansas, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Missouri all have larger stadiums than Texas Tech.

10. What will become of the Big 12 when – not if – Texas and Oklahoma depart? The league could create a scramble nationwide by going after Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State from the Pac-12 to get to 12 teams. Another thought is that Big 12 commissioner Bob Bowlsby and American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco might agree to a merger but that would include eliminating some of the schools in the AAC. A 14-team Big 12 could emerge with Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State and West Virginia remaining in the Big 12 and from the AAC adding Cincinnati, Memphis, UCF, South Florida, SMU and Houston.

11. Will the ACC and the Big Ten stand idly by while the SEC expands to 16? Notre Dame would be the ultimate prize for both leagues. Notre Dame is independent in football but has membership for all other sports in the ACC. All Notre Dame home football games are televised on NBC and the Irish have an agreement to play five games against ACC teams so it wouldn’t be all that difficult to change up the schedule to go full time in a league. It worked last year and could work again, but Notre Dame does have leverage. I’m not sure the ACC could offer enough money to lure Notre Dame. The Big Ten? They have the money and the nearby rivalries of Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State and Wisconsin to offer. Kansas has the basketball program that would fit well in the Big Ten. Adding Kansas and Iowa State might be an option for an expanded Big Ten. West Virginia to the ACC would make sense because of nearby rivalries with Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech and Virginia. Would the ACC be willing to add a school like Cincinnati, which fits into the geographic footprint due to its proximity to Pitt and Louisville?

12. Poised to be a big loser is the already weak Pac-12. Whether or not another league poaches some Pac-12 schools, the league is already struggling to keep up with the Jones’s financially. Other than people on the west coast, who’s going to want to watch an Oregon-Oregon State or California-Stanford game when ESPN can show The World’s Greatest Cocktail Party or the Red River Rivalry or the Iron Bowl or even the Egg Bowl? The Pac-12 could try to lure four teams from the Big 12 for an expansion to 16 teams but that would be a logistical nightmare. Expanding in the neighborhood only makes sense to add BYU, which would give Utah a true natural rival and would potentially add the 16 million members of the LDS church as TV viewers. But who else? UNLV? San Diego State? Fresno State? Boise State? The league already is losing so much talent to the SEC. If you add Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC, it’s only going to attract more west coast kids who know there is more exposure and a better chance to make the NFL from the SEC. As a side note, the quarterbacks at Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia are all California kids as are the quarterbacks at Clemson and Ohio State. Oklahoma QB Spencer Rattler is from Arizona.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The Olympic Games get cranked up in Tokyo today where COVID-19 protocols will mean empty stadiums. The parade of nations, always the highlight of opening night and the closing ceremony, will have a limited number of athletes marching. One of the things that’s always a highlight of the Olympics is the enthusiasm of fans who pack venues with the hope of seeing something or someone truly remarkable. I’ve always believed that the electricity that is generated creates adrenaline that pushes athletes to record-setting or winning performances. It’s very difficult to imagine there will be many records set or that much excitement generated in empty stadiums and halls. I’m not sure how much I’ll be able to watch. I need the excitement.