Thoughts of the Day: June 21, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Monday morning:

MULLEN’S HISTORY SAYS THE OFFENSE WON’T SUFFER ALL THAT MUCH

There is that old saying that when we assume it makes an ass out of u and me. There is this assumption that Florida’s offense is going to slow down considerably with Emory Jones taking over for Kyle Trask. The folks who do the analysis for the preseason football magazines tell us it’s only logical, but is it?

Jones, after all, has far more experience running Dan Mullen’s offense than Trask did when he was rushed into duty when Feleipe Franks went down with a broken and dislocated ankle in game three in 2019. When Trask took his first snap at the start of the fourth quarter of that game in Kentucky, he had thrown 27 passes (completed 18) for 202 yards and two touchdowns while taking snaps in five games (four in 2018, one in 2019 prior to the UK game). Trask went on to throw for 7,184 yards and 68 touchdowns after taking over for Franks.

Contrast that to Jones, who has played in 24 games, throwing for 613 yards and seven touchdowns while running for 514 yards and six more TDs. That’s not all in mop-up duty, either. Everybody knows Jones can run. Whereas Trask could see an opening and turn two yards into five, Jones can see that same opening and turn two into 20. It’s the passing that has the skeptics assuming Jones won’t be able to generate the same explosiveness with the UF offense that Trask could. Mullen seems to think people are going to be rather shocked to discover that EJ can make all the throws Trask did and that he may have a stronger arm.

But if you need a little more convincing then take a look at Mississippi State in 2015 and 2016. In 2015 with Dak Prescott at the helm, Mullen’s offense averaged 34.4 points and 460.5 points per game. That was without a high quality running back and with only one receiver (De’Runnya Wilson) capable of stretching a defense. Prescott threw for 3,783 yards and 29 touchdowns, ran for 588 and 10 more. In 2016 with Prescott gone to the Dallas Cowboys, redshirt freshman Nick Fitzgerald took over at QB, still without a high quality running back and still with only one explosive wide receiver (Donald Gray). Fitzgerald considered Mercer and Samford before getting his scholarship offer from Mullen. He ran for 1,375 yards and 16 touchdowns, passed for 2,423 and 21 more. The Bulldogs averaged 30.4 points and 440.2 yards per game. The numbers would have been far better if (a) the Bulldogs had better running backs and receivers and (b) defensive coordinator Pete Sirmon had the kind of year Todd Grantham had at UF last year.

Jones is a better QB than Nick Fitzgerald. He has better talent than Mullen was ever able to surround Prescott or Fitzgerald with. The least of Florida’s five running backs (Dameon Pierce, Malik Davis, Nay’Quan Wright, Lorenzo Lingard, Demarkcus Bowman) is better than any back Mullen had at MSU and all of Florida’s receivers are better than what they were able to recruit to Mississippi State.

The offense will shift to more of a running game with a lot of option thrown in. It’s going to resemble what the Gators ran in 2008 when Tim Tebow was the QB. Jones doesn’t have Tebow’s power, but Tebow would have loved to have Jones’ speed. The running game will be explosive enough that it’s going to open up the passing game. We tend to forget that Tebow wasn’t exactly Mr. Thread the Needle when he threw, but the threat of the running game was so substantial that most of the time UF’s receivers were so open Tebow didn’t have to make a precision strike.

Don’t assume the Gators are going to have a serious dropoff on offense. It will only make an ass out of u and me.

NEXT STEP FOR THE 12-TEAM PLAYOFF WILL BE TAKEN ON TUESDAY

When the College Football Management Committee and the CFB Board of Managers meet in Dallas Tuesday, Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick will present the proposal to expand the playoff from the current four teams to 12. It isn’t expected to have much opposition. The Board of Managers – 11 college presidents – won’t exactly give the proposal a rubber stamp but that’s only because some tweaks will likely be required before there is a final version, but it is about 99.9 percent certain they will elect to move forward. After all, according to Sports Illustrated’s Ross Dellenger that it was the presidents who wanted to move forward with expansion in the first place.

Before they settled on the 12-team idea, the working group of Swarbrick, Southeastern Conference commissioner Greg Sankey, Big 12 commish Bob Bowlsby and Mountain West commish Craig Thompson, investigated expanding to six, eight, 16 and 24 teams. Prior to their 12-team announcement, it was thought expansion would go slowly to accommodate ESPN, which holds the exclusive television rights until the current contract expires after the 2025 playoff. The group decided that six wouldn’t work, eight didn’t offer enough at-large slots and 24 extended the season too long. Twelve was ideal because it accommodated both the Power Five and Group of Five and eliminated the growing problem of opt outs.

Here are some key points of the proposal: (1) 12 teams with the six highest ranked conference champions and six at-large teams; (2) no conference gets an automatic bid so it’s possible that one or two Power Five conference champs won’t make the field; (3) the four highest seeded conference champs will get a first round bye; (4) because Notre Dame doesn’t play in a conference and won’t play a league championship game, the Irish can never be seeded higher than fifth even if they go unbeaten; and (5) because it’s the six highest ranked conference champs, at least one Group of Five champion will make the playoff every year.

All four members of the working group, which began investigating expansion 13 months ago, had reason to approve the plan. Swarbrick was happy with the proposal because if Notre Dame is seeded 5-8 the Irish will host a playoff game in South Bend. Sankey was happy because in a 12-team playoff, the SEC will get a minimum of two and quite often three teams in every year. Bowlsby doesn’t have a mega contract like the SEC has with ESPN that will pay the league $300 million a year so this proposal means a lot of money for his league and, in most years, two teams in the playoff. Thompson was happy because the Group of Five teams will finally have a chance to participate and to share in what is expected to be a payout that is perhaps five times more than the current $97 million pittance offered by the CFP.

OVER, UNDER, AROUND AND THROUGH THE SEC

Alabama: Herb Jones, John Petty and Josh Primo have been invited to the NBA Combine. Jones and Petty were seniors last season although they could return to Alabama if they chose. Primo was a freshman who has not hired an agent so he could return to school. Jaden Shackleford was not invited to the combine and is expected to return to school … Quarterback Arch Manning, grandson of Archie and nephew of Peyton and Eli, visited Alabama this past weekend. Arch is a 5-star rated quarterback in the 2023 recruiting class.

Arkansas: Kevin Kopps, who went 12-1 with 11 saves for the Razorbacks, won the Dick Howser Trophy as the nation’s top amateur baseball player. Kopps was the SEC Pitcher of the Year and was Collegiate Baseball Magazine’s Player of the Year.

Auburn: Freshman wide receiver Hal Presley has gone home to Texas and placed his name in the transfer portal. Presley, a 3-star 2021 signee, was on the Auburn campus and involved in the offseason workout program when he elected to bolt.

Georgia: Caryl Smith Gilbert, who led the Southern California women to two NCAA outdoor championships in the last three years, is the new men’s and women’s track and field coach. She will be the first woman to coach a men’s team in Georgia history.

Kentucky: The firing season has begun in the NBA which means John Calipari is going to be linked to nearly every opening. Cal is set to make $9.2 million this year at Kentucky and has six years remaining on his contract although that wouldn’t deter some of the higher profile NBA owners from making a run at him. The one NBA job that might lure him would be the Los Angeles Lakers. Cal is close friends with LeBron James and Anthony Davis led UK to the only national championship Cal has won. Of course, for Calipari to take that job, the Lakers would have to fire Frank Vogel, who won the 2020 NBA title. Figure Calipari is staying ... Power forward Oscar Tschiebwe, who averaged 11.2 points and 9.3 rebounds at West Virginia, is in Lexington after dealing with visa issues that kept him in his native Congo for three extra weeks.

LSU: With Kevin O’Sullivan and Pat Casey off the board, LSU’s home run baseball hires are said to be either Tennessee’s Tony Vitello or Vanderbilt’s Tim Corbin. Corbin is paid $2.3 million a year but LSU would offer $3 million-plus. Still, at Vandy he wins championships and walks on water, which can’t be said of the football and basketball coaches. Figure he stays put. Vitello is making only $600,000 a year in Knoxville. Consider him a possibility. The two coaches who have already interviewed are Mike Bianco of Ole Miss, who is a former LSU catcher, and Cliff Godwin of East Carolina, a former LSU hitting coach. If Vitello says no, put your money on Bianco.

Mississippi State: Will Bednar struck out 15 batters in six innings and closer Landon Sims struck out six in three innings as Mississippi State (46-16) knocked off No. 2 seed Texas (47-16), 2-1, Sunday night. Texas managed only four hits and one walk although Sims gave up a homer and two singles in the ninth inning. Mississippi State will face Virginia Tuesday night in a winner’s bracket game.

Missouri: Now that Allie Green IV has transferred to Mizzou, both of Tulsa’s starting corners from last season are reunited, but what exactly is Mizzou getting? Between Green and Akayleb Evans, there were three pass breakups and one interception. That doesn’t sound like Mizzou is getting much of an upgrade.

Ole Miss: Ole Miss will be spending $35-40 million to upgrade the Manning Center, which is the football operations center.

South Carolina: Frank Martin’s son Chuck has been promoted to associate head basketball coach.

Tennessee: The Vols (50-17) were shut out by Virginia (36-25), 6-0, Sunday afternoon at the College World Series. Tennessee will face Texas Tuesday afternoon in an elimination game … Baseball coach Tony Vitello was named National Coach of the Year by the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association … Former walk-on wide receiver Kenny Solomon, who earned a scholarship in 2019, is transferring to Tulsa.

Texas A&M: Cornerback Devin Morris, who was in on 25 tackles and had three pass breakups in 2020, is retiring from football in order to focus on what he calls mental health issues. Morris isn’t walking away empty-handed. He leaves Texas A&M with a college degree.

Vanderbilt: Kumar Rocker got knocked out of the box by Arizona (45-17) but the Commodores (46-15) were able to come back and win it, 7-6, in the bottom of the 12th on a walk-off bases loaded single by Jayson Gonzalez. Vanderbilt faces North Carolina State (36-18) tonight (7 p.m.) in a winner’s bracket game.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Leave it to the Pac-12 to object to the 12-team College Football Playoff proposal. Under the proposal, no conference gets an automatic bid. Instead, the six highest rated conference champs will get in as well as six at-large selections. Outgoing Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott objects and wants what he calls the “Autonomy Five” champs to get automatic bids. That’s a fancy way of saying the Power Five. Under Scott’s leadership the Pac-12 has become irrelevant in football. Oregon (2014) and Washington (2017) are the only two Pac-12 teams to ever make the playoff in seven years. Had there been a 12-team playoff last year, Pac-12 champ Oregon wouldn’t have made it in while Cincinnati (American Athletic Conference) and Coastal Carolina (Sun Belt) both would have been in. Sun Belt commissioner Keith Gill, reacting to Scott’s objection, said, “Playoff spots should be earned and not given.”