Thoughts of the Day: June 23, 2025

Alex Condon (21) is a reason to believe the Gators can repeat as NCAA champs (Photo by Chris Spears)

FOUR THINGS THAT HAVE ME THINKING OUT LOUD ON MONDAY

1. Don’t bet on anything that can talk: Years ago when I was working at the Miami News, our horse racing editor, Art Grace, gave me this valuable piece of advice: “Bet on horses and bet on dogs. Don’t bet on football, basketball or any other sport where the athlete is human. In other words: don’t bet on anything that can talk.” Art included casino gambling because the house always wins.

I’ve followed his advice for nearly 50 years, during which time I’ve had a ton of friends come ask me for money because they bet on sure things that turned out to be not so sure. I haven’t lost any sleep.

I do know people professional gamblers who make big bucks when they get it right, lose their shirts sometimes when they don’t. More power to them. They have more guts than I do.

This year, however, I’m almost inclined to give in to temptation and put some money on Florida football and Florida basketball. I’ve seen over/under on Florida football wins anywhere from 5.5 to 6.5 wins. It’s so difficult for teams to repeat as national champs in basketball, so odds are the Gators won’t go back-to-back.

Both those things have me thinking.

The more I study Florida football, the rest of the SEC and the national scene, the more convinced I am that the over/under for the Gators should be something like 8.5. I think Billy Napier has an SEC roster from top to bottom for the first time since he’s been here. I think the Gators have a stud quarterback in DJ Lagway, outstanding running backs in Jadan Baugh and Ja’Kobi Jackson, the fastest receivers since Urban Meyer’s days and an offensive line led by All-American center Jake Slaughter and left tackle Austin Barber that I think will prove to be the best in the SEC. Over on defense, I look at what the Gators did in the last four games. That was with Ron Roberts in the booth and taking charge of things. He had Garrett Nussmeier seeing ghosts, which is what the properly executed creeper defense will do for you. I think Florida has at least four All-SEC types on defense in Caleb Banks, Myles Graham, Tyreak Sapp and Devin Moore.

The schedule is tough again, but the Gators are a far better team than the one that got whomped by Miami and Texas A&M right out of the chute. Without the injuries to Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway, I don’t think the Gators go 0-3 in games against Tennessee, Georgia and Texas. I don’t think the Gators will lose back-to-back to the Himmicanes and Aggies. Win those and it’s off to the races.

So, if I were a betting man, I’d put money on the Gators.

Basketball. I was writing basketball in the ACC back when Dean Smith wasn’t much older than Todd Golden is now. I was there in Chapel Hill when Carolina trailed Duke by eight with 18 seconds to go. The Tar Heels tied the game and sent it to overtime on a long bank shot by Walter Davis. Had there been a 3-point rule, Carolina would have won the game. The way Todd Golden makes in-game adjustments reminds me of Dean back in the early 70s.

Dean Smith knew how to construct a roster, too, and this is one more reason why I think Florida is going to make a serious run at back-to-back national championships. The Gators have the best front court in the nation bar none with Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu, Tommy Haugh and Micah Handlogten. Now Golden has replaced Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin and Will Richard with Xaivian Lee, Boogie Fland and AJ Brown, all three experienced scorers who know how to share the basketball. Throw in Urban Klavzar, Isaiah Brown and the freshmen, CJ Ingram and Alex Lloyd, and the Gators have the most solid roster in the country.

The key word here is experience. Florida will have the most experienced team in the country. I’m not concerned about Lee and Boogie at all because they’re both used to sharing the basketball. Tommy Haugh will be the hybrid wing/post guy who is a nightmare and the defense will be great again.

I don’t bet, but if I did, I would put some money on the Gators.

2. I’m not convinced the new NCAA v. House deal will succeed: You have to find a third world country where poverty and corrupt politicians rule the day to find something more inept than the NCAA. For everything the House deal gets right, it gets two things wrong.

Yet now there is this settlement that raises the number of scholarships across the board and allows schools to directly pay athletes. Supposedly this will make things better.

I ask for who?

When I talked to SEC commissioner Greg Sankey back in December, I asked if the SEC is going to increase college football scholarships to 105. He shook his head and replied, “Do we really need more than 85?” Based on the number of players that depart via the transfer portal, it doesn’t take a rocket surgeon or a brain scientist to figure out most of the players leaving are gone because there are too many ahead of them.

Increasing the scholarships means the Power Four schools and a few of the Group of Five schools that are financially stable will take players that would have gone to programs in the weaker conferences. The mid-major and below schools will be harmed and the increased number of scholarships at the Power Five level will mean there will be more transfers than ever before.

This will be true across the college sports landscape. Name the sport and damage will be done, perhaps irreparable. The rich will get richer and while some think there is nothing wrong with that, a healthy Group of Five serves a real purpose in accommodating athletes that need more time to develop and – for lack of a better way of phrasing it – serve as a farm system for the big guys.

The settlement means schools have $20.5 million to pay the athletes. From that you can figure football will get 75 percent of the money. Okay, it’s the sport that has the highest rate of long term debilitating injuries so you can argue football needs it most. But what happens when the women from the water ballet team file a Title IX lawsuit claiming they should get a fair share of the money? Brace yourself. That’s going to happen. Bet the farm on it.

I am convinced there is no contingency plan for when the women’s sports and other non-revenue sports lawyer up and demand their share of the money. What looks like a step forward, I believe, will become two steps backward.

3. There is an answer: In San Antonio at the Final Four, former Villanova coach Jay Wright and I talked about the current state of college sports.

“The model we have isn’t working and it is unsustainable,” he told me. He said he sees some good things in the NCAA v. House of Representatives settlement, but not enough for the model to sustain success.

Jay Wright believes the answer starts with football either seceding from the NCAA or becoming an autonomous division that makes its own rules. Football pays the freight for nearly every other sport on campus and it should no longer be encumbered by the NCAA and its ridiculous rules.

Since pay for play is the new cost of doing business, then Wright says contracts are essential.

“You want to play college sports, then you have to sign an enforceable contract,” he said. “It goes both ways. If a school wants to get rid of a player, they have to buy out his contract. If the player wants to transfer then he either has to buy out his contract or reach a settlement with the school.”

With enforceable contracts, it will resolve the issue of players opting out of bowl games. Opt out and with the right contract, the player can be forced to pay back all the money he’s received for breach of contract.

“If we don’t make changes we’re not going to recognize college sports in two or three years,” Wright said. “I don’t even recognize them now.”

There is a reason why he retired. Same reason Nick Saban called it quits. Both of them could have continued for years but the college sports landscape has changed to the point they would rather watch someone else deal with it.

4. A few common sense suggestions: Here are a few things that I think could make college sports better.

A. No more regular season games against D1AA teams. If we’re going to have such a thing as spring practice in the future, then give us a real game. Make it a game against a D1AA team. That way the D1AA team doesn’t get beaten up when it has a playoff to consider and the D1 team doesn’t risk a loss that can prevent making the playoff.

B. Personally, I would prefer no more spring football in the traditional months of March and April. Instead, move it back to May or June. Let the kids who went through the fall have the spring semester to recuperate and get ready for practice in May. This way high school kids can stay in school, graduate with their class and then enroll in the summer. It makes more sense for incoming freshmen to have practice then two months working out with new teammates and spending time watching film. The carryover to the fall would be better.

C. Start the college basketball season mid-December after fall semester exams. Make it a one-semester sport.

D. Go to a 9-game SEC football schedule and do it for the right reason – for the fans. Three permanent opponents that play home and home every year, the other 12 teams are guaranteed to play every other team in the SEC home and home at least once every four years.

E. New transfer rules tied to academics. For example, a 2.5 GPA or else you sit a year. If you’re still taking remedial course and transfer, you sit a year. If you aren’t making satisfactory progress toward a degree and you transfer, you sit a year.

F. Five years eligibility in all sports. No extra year for redshirt or injury or transfer. The clock starts ticking your freshman year and you have five years to play, then you’re through.

G. A college sports commissioner who knows and understands the business of sports.

Give him power to enforce the rules. Take the college presidents out of the equation. Let them do what they do best, which is deal with academics. Leave sports to sports people who know the business.