Thoughts of the Day: March 18, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Thursday morning:

ALMOST ALL HOOPS EDITION

ONE AND DONE OR SWEET 16? EITHER IS POSSIBLE FOR UF

When everyone is on the same page and playing with focus and purpose, there isn’t a team in the NCAA Tournament with few exceptions that the Florida Gators (14-9) can’t beat. The opposite is also true. When the Gators aren’t on the same page, playing without focus and purpose, there isn’t a team in the NCAA Tournament, or even the NIT that the Gators can’t lose to, which brings us to the big question heading into Friday’s first round of March Madness: Which Florida team is going to show up? The good Gators or the bad ones?

We’ve seen the Gators at their best when they beat Tennessee by 26 at the O-Dome and beat West Virginia in Morgantown. Both those teams have the possibility of making a very deep run in the tournament. While neither one is being predicted to make the Final Four, both are capable of making it that far. The Florida team that showed up in those two games can certainly do some property damage in Indianapolis.

We’ve also seen the Gators at their very worst, which is what happened in the final minutes against South Carolina and Missouri when they blew two very winnable games. Win those two games and UF is probably a No. 5 or a No. 6 seed instead of a seven that means they likely play No. 2 Ohio State Sunday if they get past Virginia Tech (15-5) Friday afternoon. Since we’ve seen the Gators best, worst and everything in between it leads to this conclusion: No NCAA Tournament team better defines schizophrenia than this edition of the Florida Gators.

Far too many people blame Florida’s 14-9 record on Mike White, but is Mike White the one who collapsed on the floor in Tallahassee? Is he the one responsible for an 18-day layoff after that near death tragedy for Keyontae Johnson that not only cost the Gators their best player for the season but the steadying influence who brought everyone back to reality when things weren’t going well both on and off the court?

Is Mike White responsible for a 13-day COVID-19 interruption in February? There were approximately four practice days COMBINED for the two layoffs. Do the math. Four practice days out of 31 DURING a basketball season. That doesn’t add up to a team playing with any measure of consistency, now does it? And yet a lot of people want to blame White for the inconsistency. If you’re one of the ones pointing the finger, take a look at your hand. There are three fingers pointing back at you.

That’s not to say Mike’s the perfect coach. He isn’t. I think he needs to re-evaluate what he’s doing with the offense much the way Billy Donovan re-evaluated what he was doing with defense after the Gators never made it past the second round of the NCAA Tournament from 2001-05. What did Billy do after the Gators were bushwhacked by Villanova in the second round in 2005? He basically made Shy the defensive coordinator and allowed him to do a makeover. What Shy was teaching combined with the talent on hand turned the Gators from a team that had far too many defensive lapses the previous years into one that played with a scorched earth mentality. Just check out what George Mason and UCLA shot from the 3-point line at the 2006 Final Four (combined 5-28) and what UCLA and Ohio State shot in 2007 (combined 9-46). You win a lot of games when you hold teams to a collective 18.9% from the 3-point line.

Mike White knows defense just as Billy Donovan knew offense. Billy turned it over to a defensive coordinator. I believe Mike needs to bring in an offensive coordinator who can re-evaluate a scheme that tends to make it far too easy for opponents to double team the ball in the paint and the corners and force bad shots late in the shot clock.

But that’s looking ahead and we’re talking about Friday, so here are five things the Gators have to do to win and advance in the NCAA Tournament.

Something close to a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio: In their last four games, three of them losses, the Gators have 39 assists. For the season the Gators are averaging 11.8 assists per game, which is dead last in the Southeastern Conference and ranks 263rd out of the 340 NCAA teams. In the last four games, the Gators have turned the ball over 64 times, which goes a long way toward explaining why they wound up a No. 8 seed. A negative assist-to-turnover ratio in any NCAA Tournament game means getting your ticket punched for a one-way flight home. If the Gators aren’t somewhere around two assists for every turnover Friday, they’ll be on their way back to Gainesville.

To no one’s surprise, unbeaten Gonzaga is the No. 1 overall seed for the tournament. The Zags lead the nation in shooting at 55 percent. They are second in the nation in assists per game (18.3). They turn it over only 12 times a game. The moral of the story is good passing and few turnovers wins more ball games. The Gators should investigate.

Get Colin Castleton re-engaged in the offense: Colin Castleton’s game hasn’t been the same since the 13-day COVID-19 layoff in February. Student privacy has prevented the Gators from disclosing who had the virus and who didn’t but Castleton only got in one practice during the 13 days off and that was the Monday before the Arkansas game. Counting the Arkansas game, Castleton has scored 79 points in the last eight games. He was averaging 13.2 points prior to the layoff and had four games with 20 or more points, all of them UF wins. The Gators are 4-4 in their last eight. Two things are evident in the last eight games: (1) The Gators aren’t doing a very good job of passing Castleton the basketball when he’s in good scoring position and (2) until his teammates start hitting outside shots with any consistency, defenders will continue to sag and bring the double team. Better passing and making a few shots with some consistency will go a long way toward resolving the Castleton problem.

Someone other than Tre Mann has to score some points: In his last four games, Tre Mann has played his way into the NBA Draft lottery discussion. Mann has hit 31-63 from the field overall and 8-17 from the 3-point stripe while scoring 21 or more points (94 overall) in all four games. For the season he leads the Gators in scoring (16.0) and assists (3.4) and is second in rebounding (5.7). He’s hitting 39.8 percent of his 3-pointers and 84.9 percent of his free throws. As good as he has been, he could be even better if the Gators gave him a reasonable amount of help. If Mann has to do it all against Virginia Tech, the Gators will be a one-and-done.

Scottie-o, Scottie-o, wherefore art thou Scottie-o?: In Florida’s last three games, Scottie Lewis has as many fouls (7) as points (7). Since he scored 16 points in the win over Auburn, which was his first game in double figures in nearly a month, Lewis has scored a combined 20 points, pulled down 10 rebounds and committed 13 fouls. That works out to 4.0 points, 2.0 rebounds and 2.6 fouls per game. He had a stretch of five straight games in which he hit for double figures and averaged 15.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Since 17 points and five rebounds against LSU, his season has gone south. This is a guy with NBA talent who’s playing like he’s a Division I walk-on lately. For the Gators to be anything but one-and-done, Scottie Lewis has to get his mojo working.

Shorten the bench: Given the lack of productivity off the bench lately, White needs to find eight guys he can count on and go with them. For whatever reason, NCAA Tournament games typically go at a slower pace than the regular season. A slower pace doesn’t require playing all 12 scholarship guys at White’s disposal. Virginia Tech rarely runs more than an 8-man bench. Ohio State, who the Gators would almost certainly play if they beat the Hokies in round one, plays nine. The Zags go with seven or eight until the game gets out of hand, which is often. The point is, you don’t have to have a deep bench to win in the NCAA Tournament, just eight or so guys who can play hard and contribute.

THE SEC IN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT

Friday

No. 3 ARKANSAS (22-6) vs. No. 14 Colgate (14-1), South Regional: Colgate averages 86.3 points per game, which is second nationally to Gonzaga’s 92.1. The Raiders would like this game to be a track meet, which would suit Eric Musselman just fine. The Hogs can run all day long. They can also defend. Opponents score only 70 a game against them and make just 41.5 percent overall from the field and 32.6 from the 3-point line. Arkansas is favored by 8.5, wins by more.

No. 5 TENNESSEE (18-8) VS. No. 12 Oregon State (17-12), Midwest Regional: Oregon had to win the Pac-12 Tournament to get in. The Beavers have won six of their last seven, but they haven’t played anyone as good defensively as the Vols, who give up just 39.8 percent from the field and 32.6 from the 3-point line. If John Fulkerson has recovered from his concussion, Tennessee wins big. The Vols are favored by 8.5.

Saturday No. 8 LSU (18-9) vs. No. 9 St. Bonaventure (16-4), East Regional: This is a game LSU can lose if it can’t deal with St. Bonnie big guy Osun Osinniyi, who goes for 10.5 points and 9.5 rebounds per game while blocking 2.9 shots. If the Tigers can’t get to the rim, they’re going to have trouble. LSU is favored by 1.5 points. If they win, it will be a squeaker.

No. 2 Alabama (24-6) vs. No. 15 Iona (12-5), East Regional: Rick Pitino said Wednesday that he is not going to be a candidate for the vacant Indiana job. Good, because Indiana won’t be calling him. Iona shouldn’t plan a lengthy stay in Nap Town because Alabama (17-point favorite) is going to win very big.

No. 9 Missouri (16-9) vs. No. 8 Oklahoma (15-10), Midwest Regional: Mizzou’s chances of making it to the second round got better. Oklahoma, which has lost five of its last six games, will be without second leading scorer De’Vion Harmon (12.9 per game), who tested positive for COVID-19. The Sooners have troubles with big guys so Jeremiah Tilmon should have his way in the paint. Oklahoma is a 1-point favorite, but Mizzou should advance.

UF SPORTS: The now 2nd-ranked UF men’s tennis team (13-1) won its 10th straight match in blowout fashion, shutting out 6th-ranked TCU, 7-0, Wednesday afternoon. The Gators face FSU at home Sunday … The 5th-ranked Gators (13-5) open the SEC portion of their baseball schedule tonight at the Florida Ballpark against Texas A&M (15-4). The Gators will send Tommy Mace (3-0, 1.96 ERA) against the Aggies tonight. Friday night, Jack Leftwich (3-0, 1.82 ERA) will get the call with Hunter Barco (2-1, 5.95 ERA) going Saturday … The 5th-ranked Florida softball team (18-2) rode the 5-hit pitching of Ryle Trlicek (1-0) and a grand slam homer by Emily Wilkie to a 7-1 win over North Dakota Wednesday evening. The Gators will travel to Mississippi State (15-8, 0-3 SEC) Friday.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The only thing better than Michigan State and UCLA going at it in a play-in game in the NCAA Tournament would be for the Spartans to join Duke and Kentucky watching March Madness on television. We need things like this to happen in sports. It’s like a couple of years ago when Alabama had to finish its football season in the Citrus Bowl. You knew that this was just temporary, nothing to expect on a yearly basis, but it felt good to see Bama having to toil with the mere mortals. I feel the same way with Kentucky and Duke out and Michigan State and UCLA bottom feeding in the tournament. They will be back. All of them. Count on it. But for tonight and one NCAA Tournament, I’m really enjoying this. Now, if only Florida or the Zags win the NCAA, I’ll really be happy.