Thoughts of the Day: March 3, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:

A WIN GUARANTEES TOP FOUR FINISH IN SEC REGULAR SEASON

Mike White has the Gators (13-6, 9-5 SEC) playing with a measure of desperation as they begin the final week of the regular season tonight when they play host to Missouri (14-7, 7-7 SEC) at the O-Dome (6:30 p.m., SEC Network). Winners of their last three games including two on the road last week at Auburn and Kentucky, the Gators need only a win tonight to clinch a top four finish which means they won’t have to play until the Friday quarterfinals in next week’s SEC Tournament in Nashville.

Coming off two bad losses, the Gators have turned things around defensively in the last three games as the Gators have held Georgia, Auburn and Kentucky to an average of 62.3 points per game, 40.5 percent overall (71-175) from the field and a dismal 25 percent (15-60) from the three-point line. Granted, these are not three of the more gifted offensive teams in the country, but any time you hold any opponent to those kind of numbers your defense is getting the job done.

The keys to beating Missouri tonight are: (1) Neutralize 6-10, 260-pound Jeremiah Tilmon (12.9 points, 7.7 rebounds); (2) keep Scottie Lewis out of foul trouble so he can go to work defensively on Mark Smith, making him take tough twos instead of open threes; (3) get the ball into the post so Colin Castleton (12.9 points, 5.8 rebounds) can go to work on Tilmon, who has been foul-prone his entire career; (4) get Tre Mann (14.7 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists) going early on the offensive end and play some zone to keep him out of foul trouble defensively; (5) since Missouri is not a good comeback team, get an early lead and force the Tigers to play out of their comfort zone.

Tuesday SEC scores

#8 Alabama (20-6, 15-2 SEC) 70, Auburn (12-14, 6-11 SEC) 58 #12 Arkansas (20-5, 12-4 SEC) 101, South Carolina (6-13, 4-11 SEC) 73 LSU (15-8, 10-6 SEC) 83, Vanderbilt (7-14, 3-12 SEC) 68

Ole Miss (14-10, 9-8 SEC) 70, Kentucky (8-15, 7-9 SEC) 62

Wednesday SEC games Missouri (14-7, 7-7 SEC) at FLORIDA (13-6, 9-5 SEC) Mississippi State (13-12, 7-9 SEC) at Texas A&M (8-7, 2-6 SEC)

A LITTLE PERSPECTIVE ABOUT MULLEN, OFFENSE, O-LINE AND DEFENSE It’s the offseason so pundits who don’t have a lot of news to report spend a lot of time speculating. That might have something to do with so many folks insinuating that this is a make-or- break year for Dan Mullen. Make-or-break? Really?

Let’s put a few things in perspective:

29-8: That’s Mullen’s three-year record at Florida since arriving in 2018 with three consecutive New Year’s Six bowl games. Only Urban Meyer (31-8) had a better first three years. The best three years of the Will Muschamp era were 2011-13 when the Gators went 22-10. The three years of Jim McElwain saw a 23-15 record. Old Yeller was 19-8 in his first two years when he inherited what amounts to an NFL defense from Muschamp.

Only Alabama and Georgia have a better 3-year record: Alabama is 38-3 over the last three years, the best record in college football. It must be noted that Nick Saban has been on the job 14 years. Georgia is 31-7. Kirby Smart inherited a team that was 20-6 in the two years before he took over in 2016.

The Florida offense under Muschamp: In 2011, the Gators averaged 25.5 points and 328.7 yards per game. In 2012, the Gators averaged 26.5 points and 334 yards. In 2013, the Gators averaged 18.8 points and 316.7 yards. In 2014, the Gators averaged 30.3 points and 367.6 yards. The Gators cracked the top 100 in both scoring and total offense in 2014. From 2011-13 the Gators never cracked the top 100 in total offense.

The Florida offense under McElwain: In 2015, the Gators averaged 23.2 points and 334 yards per game. In 2016, they averaged 23.9 points and 344 yards. In 2017, the Gators averaged 22.1 points and 335.9 yards. The Gators failed to crack the top 100 in either scoring or total offense in any of the three years.

The Florida offense under Mullen: In 2017, the Gators averaged 426.7 yards (6.23 yards per play) and 35 points per game. In 2018, they averaged 430.5 yards (6.47 yards per play) and 33.2 points. In 2020, the Gators averaged 509.8 yards (7.28 per play) and 39.8 points per game.

The O-line under Mullen: Obviously, the O-line was doing something right the last three years because the Gators posted the best offensive numbers since 2009. With a veteran offensive line in 2018 that Mullen and John Hevesy inherited, the Gators averaged 213.7 rushing yards (5.27 per carry) and allowed just 18 sacks in 364 pass attempts. Any time you give up less than a sack per 20 attempts, your O-line is doing well. The 2019 O-line, which was the fourth youngest in all of Division I, gave up 25 sacks in 467, which is just one per 18.68 attempts. In 2020, the Gators gave up 20 sacks in 473 attempts or one per 23.65 attempts. Now the running totals were not as good as 2018 – 4.24 per attempt in 2019, 4.29 in 2020 – in part because the offense shifted on the fly to an all-out passing game since Kyle Trask is not exactly fleet of feet.

The Florida defense under Mullen: If there is a real sticking point with Mullen this is it. Under Muschamp, the Gators finished top 10 in total defense from 2011-13 and were 15th in 2014. With the defensive players he inherited from Muschamp, McElwain’s 2015-16 defenses were both top ten. The 2017 defense dropped off to 31st after the studs all left for the NFL. Mullen’s 2018 defense finished 28th and in 2019 it was 9th. The wheels came off in 2020. How much of that was just bad coaching and how much was related to no spring practice or summer conditioning we’ll never know, but the Gators finished 83rd in total defense (it seemed worse, didn’t it?) at 427.8 yards per game.

Conclusions: Reports that this is a make-or-break year for Mullen are GREATLY exaggerated. Even with a new QB, the offense is going to be fine. With a full spring to work and offseason with Nick Savage, the O-line will be stronger, quicker and more physical than last year, and should be vastly improved. It’s the defense that has everyone jumpy. If it’s a make-or-break year for anyone, it’s for defensive coordinator Todd Grantham. Defenses everywhere suffered last year, but to go from giving up 15.5 points and 304.8 yards per game in 2019 to 30.8 points and 427.8 yards in 2020 is astonishing. If it’s a second straight bad year for Grantham and the defense, then he won’t be around in 2022. Then perhaps Mullen will face a make-or-break year. Until then, it’s all speculation to fill space on someone’s blog or website.

UF SPRING SPORTS Gymnastics: On the strength of a pair of 10s in last Friday night’s win over Auburn Trinity Thomas was selected SEC Gymnast of the Week for the fourth time this season. Thomas has been SEC Gymnast of the Week a record 15 times. Ellie Lazzari was named SEC Freshman of the Week. The No. 1 Gators will travel to Tuscaloosa to face 6th-ranked Alabama Friday night. The Gators have already clinched a tie for the SEC championship but with a win Friday they win the title outright.

Baseball: Head coach Kevin O’Sullivan can tie Dave Fuller for the most wins in Florida baseball history if the Gators (6-2) go 4-0 this week. O’Sullivan has 553 wins in 14 years. The 3rd-ranked Gators (by Collegiate Baseball newspaper) play host to 21st-ranked Florida Atlantic tonight at Florida Ballpark and FAMU for a three-game series this weekend.

Softball: The 5th-ranked Gators (12-0) lead the nation in ERA at 0.71. The UF pitching staff has five shutouts in the last six games. UF plays host to New Mexico State tonight at Katie Seashole Pressly Stadium.

Lacrosse: The 6th-ranked Gators (1-1) are at Kennesaw State this afternoon.

Women’s Golf: The 16th-ranked Gators are tied for 17th after 36 holes at the Gamecock Invitational Tournament in Columbia, South Carolina.

OVER, UNDER, AROUND AND THROUGH THE SEC Alabama: Former Eastern Michigan and Louisville head coach Ron Cooper is expected to join Nick Saban’s staff as an analyst. Cooper was once Dan Mullen’s defensive coordinator at Mississippi State and Steve Spurrier’s secondary coach at South Carolina.

Arkansas: Redshirt freshman Blayne Toll, who at times in 2020 was listed as a defensive end and other times as a tight end, has put his name in the NCAA transfer portal … Arkansas hired Butler Benton from Georgia Southern to be the new Director of Player Personnel.

Auburn: Former Auburn defensive end Big Kat Bryant, who made second team All-SEC in 2020, is the latest to transfer to UCF to play for Gus Malzahn. Bryant had 10 sacks in his Auburn career. Also former Auburn staffer Ross Newton has departed to UCF where he will be assistant to the head coach.

Georgia: Kirby Smart indicated he will be looking at the transfer portal to see if there is any help available in the secondary where five players declared for the NFL and one transferred.

Kentucky: To make the NCAA Basketball Tournament, the Wildcats (8-15, 7-9 SEC) will have to win four consecutive games at the SEC Tournament in Nashville. The last time UK had to win four at the SEC Tournament was 1952.

LSU: Spring football practice will begin March 16 with the spring football game played on April 17.

Mississippi State: With a win over Texas A&M tonight, Mississippi State (13-12, 7-9 SEC) is assured of no worse than a break-even basketball season. The Bulldogs have to go 2-0 this week to finish with a .500 record in SEC play.

Missouri: Early enrollee QB Tyler Macon is turning heads with his play so far in Mizzou’s spring practice, showing mobility and a very strong arm.

Ole Miss: With their 70-62 win over Kentucky Tuesday night, Ole Miss (14-10, 9-8 SEC) still has a shot to finish fourth in the SEC which would give the Rebels a first round bye in Nashville.

South Carolina: This is a novel approach to getting a packed stadium for 2021. Athletic director Ray Tanner announced that South Carolina is rolling its ticket prices back to the same level they were in 2010.

Tennessee: Kurt Schmidt, who worked for Josh Heupel at UCF, is the new Director of Competition Development at UT. That’s a fancy way of saying he’s the new strength and conditioning coordinator.

Texas A&M: Former Aggie Heisman Trophy QB Johnny Manziel claims to be a 0-1 handicapper on the golf course. He says he’s giving himself 12 years to earn a PGA Tour card.

Vanderbilt: Former Vandy receiver Jayden Harrison, who caught eight passes for 20 yards in 2020, is transferring to Marshall.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Because they always load up on talent, the prevailing thought heading into a pandemic influenced 2020-21 basketball season was that bluebloods like Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State and North Carolina would almost waltz into the NCAA Tournament. Yet, here we are with just a few days before the power conferences play their tournaments and North Carolina (15-9, 9-6 ACC) is the only one of the four that has a reasonable shot at marching to the madness when the NCAA selects the 68 teams that will compete for the national championship. Kentucky (8-15, 7-9 SEC) is assured of its worst record since before Adolph Rupp became coach. Duke (11-10, 9-8 ACC) lost to Georgia Tech Tuesday night, which means the only way the Blue Devils make the field is to win the ACC Tournament. If Michigan State (14-10, 8-10 Big Ten) can’t beat 3rd-ranked Michigan back-to-back Thursday and Sunday, the Spartans will have to at least make the Big Ten championship game and even that might not be good enough. I find the possibility of Kentucky, Duke and Michigan State missing the Big Dance refreshing.