Thoughts of the Day: May 10, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:

ARE 35-36 REGULAR SEASON WINS OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR UF?

The low point was the Tennessee series. The Gators, who had lost two of their three at Vanderbilt the weekend before, lost all three games to the Vols. Game three, a 6-4 loss in 11 innings, hurt the worst because UF had a 4-2 lead with two out in the ninth and then lost in the 11th on a 2-run homer.

The Gators were 23-17 at that point, 6-12 in SEC play and looking like a team that might not make the SEC Tournament much less the NCAA. Fast forward to tonight’s game with Bethune-Cookman (23-26) at the Condron Family Ballpark and that same Florida (29-18, 11-13 SEC) team everyone was ready to give up on is looking for its 30th win of the season. Instead of looking like a team that might not make it to Hoover for the SEC, the Gators have a shot at finishing second in the SEC East, unheard of three weekends ago.

With an SEC road trip this weekend to Missouri (25-20, 7-17 SEC) and a homer with South Carolina (24-22, 10-14 SEC) to close out the regular season, a 15-15 SEC mark is entirely possible. A 16-14 record in league play will have the Gators in the hunt for second place in the East. A 17-13 record probably earns a second place finish since Georgia (32-16, 13-11 SEC) has to play Tennessee (42-6, 20-4 SEC) this weekend.

Winning five or six of the final eight games (six SEC, two non-conference) will get the Gators to 35 or 36 wins, a number that may not be enough to host an NCAA regional without some extraordinary happenings in Hoover, but it would certainly put UF in the conversation. For Florida to get to the 35-36 win level, Kevin O’Sullivan is going to have to find two pitchers to go with starters Brandon Sproat and Brandon Neely. Nick Pogue, in his best outing since his freshman year in 2019, had a fine start against Mississippi State in the Sunday game. He looked the part of the third starter. The fourth could be freshman righty Tyler Nesbitt (1-3, 5.40 ERA), who will face Bethune-Cookman tonight. The Wildcats are expected to start left Alec Mendez (0-1, 3.68 ERA).

Riopelle SEC Co-Player of the Week: Catcher BT Riopelle, who hit two home runs and three doubles while driving in eight runs in the Mississippi State series, was selected SEC Co-Player of the Week with LSU’s Dylan Crews. For the season, Riopelle is hitting .312 with 14 homers and 45 RBI.

D1Baseball top 25: 1. Tennessee 42-6; 2. Oregon State 38-9; 3. Oklahoma State 34-13; 4. Arkansas 36-12; 5. Virginia Tech 33-10; 6. Miami 35-12; 7. Louisville 33-13-1; 8. Stanford 29-14; 9. Texas Tech 32-16; 10. Texas A&M 30-16; 11. Gonzaga 29-13; 12. Virginia 34-12; 13. UConn 40-8; 14. Southern Miss 6-12; 15. Texas State 38-11; 16. Notre Dame 28-10; 17. LSU 32-15; 18. Maryland 37-10; 19. UC-Santa Barbara 33-11; 20. Auburn 32-15; 21. Florida State 28-17; 22. Texas 34-17; 23. UCLA 30-17; 24. Vanderbilt 31-15; 25. Grand Canyon 33-16

Collegiate Baseball News top 25: 1. Oregon State 38-9; 2. Tennessee 42-6; 3. Oklahoma State 34-13; 4. Arkansas 36-12; 5. Miami 35-12; 6. Louisville 33-13-1; 7. Virginia Tech 33-10; 8. UConn 40-8; 9. UC-Santa Barbara 33-11; 10. Stanford 29-14; 11. Texas A&M 30-16; 12. Texas State 38-11; 13. Arizona 33-17; 14. Ball State 32-14; 15. UCLA 30-17; 16. Vanderbilt 31-15; 17. Notre Dame 28-10; 18. Virginia 34-12; 19. LSU 32-15; 20. Southern Miss 36-12; 21. Auburn 32-16; 22. Rutgers 37-11; 23. Maryland 37-10; 24. Grand Canyon 33-16; 25. Georgia 32-16; 26. FLORIDA 29-18; 27. Florida State 27-18; 28. TCU 28-18; 29. Gonzaga 29-13; 30. Texas Tech 32-16

UF SOFTBALL: CAN THE GATORS GET HOT AT THE RIGHT TIME? The last time the 13th-ranked Gators (41-15, 13-11 SEC) were the No. 5 seed at the SEC Tournament the year was 2019. UF finished the regular season with a 12-12 league record and on a sour note when they dropped two out of three at home to Mississippi State in the final SEC series of the regular season. Heading into the SEC Tournament in College Station, the Gators were longshots to even host an NCAA regional much less a super regional, but four games later, UF had disposed of South Carolina, LSU, Auburn and 4th-ranked Alabama to claim the tournament championship. That performance impressed the NCAA Softball Tournament Selection Committee so much that the Gators not only got to host the regional but the super regional as well. The Gators went 3-0 in regional play and then took out Tennessee two out of three to win the super regional to advance to the Women’s College World Series.

That 2019 team got hot at just the right time, but it helped enormously that Tim Walton could send Kelly Barnhill out in the circle. All she did in 2019 was go 34-12. For her career she was 104-22 with a 1.17 ERA and 1,208 strikeouts. In the Gators’ 10 games leading up to the WCWS, Barnhill went 7-1 with five shutouts.

There is no Kelly Barnhill capable of taking the ball and dominating for seven innings on this 2022 team, but Walton does have Elizabeth Hightower and Natalie Lugo, who both pitched in the post season in 2019 and were a combined 12-4. This year Hightower is 14-7 with a 2.29 ERA and Lugo is 9-5 with a 2.23 ERA. Florida’s third pitcher is Lexie Delbrey (13-2, 2.30 ERA), who can be a dominator when she’s throwing strikes. She has walked 52 batters and hit 17 in 91-1/3 innings. Hightower has issued 59 walks and hit 10 in 147 innings.

The Gators are going to make the NCAA Tournament and most likely host a regional. For UF to have any chance at hosting a super regional as well, the Gators probably have to do a repeat of 2019 by going 4-0 at the SEC Tournament.

The SEC Tournament opens at Katie Seashole Pressly Stadium tonight with South Carolina facing Texas A&M with the winner advancing to face the Gators at 5 p.m. Wednesday.

D1Softball top 25: 1. Oklahoma 48-1; 2. Virginia Tech 40-6; 3. Florida State 48-5; 4. Arkansas 41-9; 5. Arizona State 37-8; 6. Alabama 41-10; 7. Duke 40-7; 8. UCLA 40-8; 9. Oklahoma State 38-12; 10. Northwestern 39-9; 11. Tennessee 38-15; 12. Washington 34-13; 13. FLORIDA 41-15; 14. Kentucky 35-16; 15. Texas 37-16-1; 16. Clemson 37-14; 18. Notre Dame 39-9; 19. Auburn 39-14; 20. Michigan 34-15; 21. Georgia 40-15; 22. Louisiana 42-11; 23. LSU 34-20; 24. San Diego State 35-13; 25. Ole Miss 38-16

UF WOMEN’S GOLF: GATORS THIRD AFTER ONE DAY AT ALBUQUEQUE REGIONAL

The Gators came in at even par (288) Monday to finish day one of the NCAA Albuquerque Regional four shots behind 2nd-ranked Oregon and one behind second place Texas. Marina Escobar Domingo led the way for the Gators with a 4-under par 68, good for a 4-way second place tie on the individual leaderboard. Annabell Fuller shot a 69 for sole possession of sixth place. The top four teams will advance to the NCAA Championships in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Top 10 team scores: 1. Oregon 284; 2. Texas 287; 3. FLORIDA 288; 4. (Tie) Georgia and TCU 292; 6. Arizona 293; 7. Louisville 295; 8. North Texas 296; 9. Oklahoma 299; 10. (Tie) New Mexico State and Sam Houston 302

UF TRACK AND FIELD: MEN, WOMEN REMAIN NO. 3

Heading into the SEC Track and Field Championships which begin in Oxford Thursday, both the Florida men’s and women’s teams continue to hold down the No. 3 position in the USTFCCCA national rankings. The Gators are seeking their first SEC outdoor titles since both the men and women brought home the conference championships in 2018.

USTFCCCA Men’s top 25: 1. Texas; 2. Alabama; 3. FLORIDA; 4. LSU; 5. Georgia; 6. Texas A&M; 7. Oregon; 8. Southern Cal; 9. Texas Tech; 10. Baylor; 11. Stanford; 12. Tennessee; 13. BYU; 14. North Carolina A&T; 15. Kentucky; 16. Princeton; 17. Florida State; 18. Arkansas; 19. Washington; 20. Iowa; 21. Ohio State; 22. Arizona State; 23. Oklahoma; 24. Virginia; 25. California

USTFCCA Women’s Top 25: 1. Texas; 2. Texas A&M; 3. FLORIDA; 4. LSU; 5. Arkansas; 6. Texas Tech; 7. Kentucky; 8. BYU; 9. Oregon; 10. Ohio State; 11. Baylor; 12. New Mexico; 13. North Carolina A&T; 14. North Carolina State; 15. Washington; 16. Arizona State; 17. South Carolina; 18. Stanford; 19. Oklahoma; 20. Ole Miss; 21. Southern Cal; 22. Auburn; 23. Duke; 24. California; 25. Colorado

UF LACROSSE: GATORS MOVE UP TO NO. 5

The Gators (15-4), who won the American Athletic Conference tournament championship over the weekend, have won 13 matches in a row, which is why they have moved up to fifth in the latest Inside Lacrosse/IWLCA top 25 poll. The Gators will face Mercer in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday.

Inside Lacrosse/IWLCA top 25: 1. North Carolina 18-0; 2. Maryland 17-1; 3. Boston College 16-3; 4. Northwestern 13-4; 5. FLORIDA 15-4; 6. Syracuse 13-5; 7. Rutgers 15-4; 8. Stony Brook 14-2; 9. Denver; 10. Loyola Maryland 18-1; 11. Princeton 14-3; 12. James Madison 13-4; 13. Duke 15-3; 14. UConn 13-4; 15. Johns Hopkins 10-8; 16. Southern Cal 13-4; 17. Notre Dame 9-9; 18. Virginia 9-9; 19. UMass 16-3; 20. Michigan 10-6; 21. Jacksonville 13-4; 22. Temple 11-6; 23. Ohio State 9-7; 24. Penn State 6-9; 25. Yale 11-6

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The NCAA, in its infinite wisdom, is expected to try to crack down on NIL collectives run by boosters that are attempting to lure recruits or transfers to their school or keep kids from transferring out by offering them financial incentives to stay. You’ll have to excuse the lawyers for some of these collectives if they find it difficult to muffle their giggles.

Utah-based sports agent Russell Smith is so frightened that the NCAA may come after him that he told this to Nicole Auerbach and Stewart Mandel of The Athletic:

“I think it’s adorable that the NCAA is acting as if they’re going to crack down on anything.”

Another lawyer, obviously shaking in his shorts, is Mike Caspino, who represents recruits who have landed six- and seven-figure deals with booster collectives that represent certain schools. Here’s what he said:

“​​The moment they come to try to interfere with one of my clients’ deals – the next day is the moment they get hit with an antitrust lawsuit. They’re saying there’s a whole class of people (boosters) who can’t participate in the market for athletes’ NIL rights. That’d be like saying red-haired people can’t buy meat. That’s antitrust.”

Three things to keep in mind here: (1) The NCAA is something like oh-fer-its-last 100 in court cases; (2) in the beatdown the NCAA took at the Supreme Court last summer, the one that opened the NIL floodgates, Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote in the 9-0 decision, “The NCAA’s business model would be flatly illegal in almost any other industry in America.”; and (3) how does the NCAA propose to enforce these new rules?

Yes, indeed, how will the NCAA enforce the rules? Remember, this is the same organization that, armed with under oath testimony and wiretap evidence from a Federal trial that took place six years ago, hasn’t been able to drop the hammer on institutions or basketball coaches caught up in the biggest cheating scandal in decades. The NCAA will never have such a mountain of evidence clearly on its side and yet it still hasn’t managed to punch out the likes of Kansas, Arizona, LSU, Auburn, South Carolina, Alabama, Creighton, Louisville, Oregon and others involved in the college basketball corruption trials.

If the NCAA can’t put cheaters on probation when it has this much evidence at its disposal, I can’t imagine its lawyers will be bright enough to enforce any NIL rules.