Thoughts of the Day: May 4, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:

STARS DO MATTER BUT SO DOES COACHING

When Kadarius Toney signed with the Florida Gators out of Blount High School in metro Mobile, Alabama in 2017, he was ranked 421st out of all the high school football players in the country by 247Sports.com. He was rated the 20th best player in the state of Alabama, but where to play him? That was the question on everybody’s mind.

A high school quarterback known more for his water-bug quickness and Houdini-like escapability even when surrounded by opponents, Toney was a 3-star recruit. Georgia Tech, then coached by Paul Johnson, wanted him to come run that funky option offense. South Carolina offered him as did Tulane, South Florida and Wake Forest. Auburn didn’t even give him a sniff. Once Florida offered, Nick Saban and Alabama offered, although Nick was already loading up with a recruiting class for the ages that would eventually produce eight first round draft picks.

Four years and a position change later, Kadarius Toney was the 20th selection by the New York Giants in the first round of the NFL Draft. He spent his first three years at UF learning how to play wide receiver, then in year four (2020) applied all he learned to transform from a bubble screen/drag pattern guy into one with dependable hands, good route-running skills and the ability to stretch a defense downfield.

Had Toney chosen Georgia Tech odds are he wouldn’t have been drafted at all. South Carolina’s offense was jammed in neutral the last four years which has everything to do with why Will Muschamp is living off a few zillion buyout bucks and staying out of his wife’s way by serving as an analyst at Georgia these days. Had Jim McElwain had a close encounter with the truth and remained Florida’s football coach, it’s also doubtful that Toney would have developed. In three years at Florida (2015-17), Old Yeller’s offenses never cracked the top 100 nationally. It’s doubtful McElwain would have figured out what to do with Toney.

Because Florida hired Dan Mullen, one of the better offensive minds in all of college football, and Mullen brought with him Billy Gonzales to coach up the wide receivers, Toney found his calling. The Giants will pay him enough money in that first contract that he could be set for life it it’s well invested. Not bad for a 3-star recruit.

Had Toney committed to Alabama instead of Florida would he have remained a 3-star? If you follow recruiting, then you have to notice how the moment a high school kid commits to Alabama or tells some recruiting analyst that Bama is on his short list that another star is added. Analysts figure that if Nick offers, then the kid needs another star. What Alabama is doing is unprecedented and it has everything to do with (1) stability, (2) a chance to compete for championships and (3) player development. Nick has been at Alabama since 2007 and he’s won six national championships and lost in the championship game twice. If you survive what Nick calls “the process,” at the end of four years you probably get a chance to play for money on Sundays.

Consider Alabama’s 2017 recruiting class as good an exhibit as you could ask for when it comes to player development.

In 2017, Alabama signed 29 players, 12 of which have been drafted, eight of which became first round selections in the 2020 and 2021 drafts. Seven will be seniors in 2021. There were six 5-stars (four who became first rounders, one who went undrafted and one who will return to Alabama for his senior season in 2021), 18 4-stars, four 3-stars and one-2-star (long snapper Thomas Fletcher who was drafted). The class produced a Heisman Trophy winner in Devonta Smith, a 4-star recruit who was the first round pick of the Philadelphia Eagles; two first round quarterbacks in former 5-star Tua Tagovailoa, a former 5-star, and Mac Jones, a former 3-star.

Jones was committed to Kentucky when Saban offered him out of Jacksonville Bolles. Probably the reason he didn’t get an extra star was because absolutely no one ever dreamed he would be anything more than an insurance policy in case one of Nick’s 5-star QBs went down with an injury. Does anyone whose brain is used for something other than to part his ears think Jones is a first rounder if he goes to Kentucky? He has two national championship rings, one as a redshirt freshman in 2017 and one as the MVP of the 2020 national championship game.

For the most part, stars matter, but not always. There will always be late bloomers or players who get switched to a position they were born to play or coached by someone capable of developing them beyond their wildest dreams. Sometimes stars and planets align and a kid who nobody knew what to do with or one destined to be an insurance policy get their chance. Just as Kadarius Toney and Mac Jones.

GATORS MOVE UP IN EVERY POLL

Back on April 10, the Gators had lost their second winnable game to Tennessee in Knoxville, falling to 20-11 on the season, 5-6 in SEC play. The next day the Gators erased a 6-3 deficit, scoring a much-needed 7-6 win over the Vols when Kris Armstrong launched a pinch-hit 3-run homer over the right field wall in the eighth inning. A season that seemed to be on the brink has since turned into one that is gaining momentum as Florida has crept within a game of first place in the SEC East and back into the top ten in every college baseball poll.

The Gators have won 10 of their last 12 games, improving to 30-13 overall and 13-8 in SEC play, one game behind East co-leaders Vanderbilt and 6th-ranked Tennessee. The Gators are now one of the hotter teams in all of college baseball and playing like a team that is on a mission. With three SEC series remaining and 11 games altogether, Florida has a legitimate shot at winning the East as well as being named a host for NCAA regional and super regional play.

The Gators face Stetson in a non-conference matchup at the Florida Ballpark at 6 p.m.

Collegiate Baseball poll: 1. Arkansas 34-8; 2. Vanderbilt 32-9; 3. TCU 33-10; 4. Mississippi State 32-10; 5. Texas 35-11; 6. Tennessee 34-11; 7. FLORIDA 30-13; 8. Arizona 30-11; 9. Ole Miss 31-12; 10. Notre Dame 24-8; 11. Texas Tech 30-11; 12. South Carolina 26-15; 13. Louisville 23-14; 14. Stanford 24-9; 15. Oregon 27-11; 16. UCLA 25-14; 17. Pittsburgh 20-11; 18. East Carolina 30-9; 19. Louisiana Tech 32-11; 20. Oklahoma State 25-14-1; 21. Arizona State 25-14; 22. Michigan 21-11; 23. UC-Irvine 26-14; 24. Tulane 24-14; 25. UC-Santa Barbara 29-13; 26. Gonzaga 27-13; 27. Clemson 21-18; 28. Fairfield 29-1; 29. Old Dominion 31-11; 30. Central Michigan 28-11.

USA Today Coaches poll: 1. Arkansas 34-8; 2. Vanderbilt 32-9; 3. TCU 33-10; 4. Mississippi State 32-10; 5. Texas 35-11; 6. Tennessee 34-11; 7. Notre Dame 24-8; 8. Texas Tech 30-11; 9. FLORIDA 30-13; 10. Arizona 30-11; 11. Ole Miss 31-12; 12. East Carolina 30-9; 13. Oregon 27-11; 14. Louisiana Tech 32-11; 15. Louisville 23-14; 16. Stanford 24-9; 17. Pittsburgh 20-11; 18. South Carolina 26-15; 19. Southern Miss 29-14; 20. Old Dominion 31-11; 21. Florida State 23-16; 22. Charlotte 31-14; 23. Gonzaga 27-13; 24. Oklahoma State 25-14-1; 25. UCLA 25-14.

D1Baseball.com poll: 1. Arkansas 34-8; 2. Vanderbilt 32-9; 3. TCU 33-10; 4. Mississippi State 32-10; 5. Tennessee 34-11; 6. Texas 35-11; 7. Notre Dame 24-8; 8. Texas Tech 30-11; 9. Arizona 30-11; 10. FLORIDA 30-13; 11. Oregon 27-11; 12. Ole Miss 31-12; 13. East Carolina 30-9; 14. Louisiana Tech 32-11; 15. Louisville 23-14; 16. Stanford 24-9; 17. Pittsburgh 20-11; 18. Florida State 23-16; 19. South Carolina 26-15; 20. Southern Miss 29-14; 21. Gonzaga 27-13; 22. Old Dominion 31-11; 23. Charlotte 31-14; 24. Indiana 20-9; 25. UCLA 25-14.

Baseball America poll: 1. Arkansas 34-8; 2. Notre Dame 24-8; 3. Vanderbilt 32-9; 4. Mississippi State 32-10; 5. TCU 33-10; 6. Tennessee 34-11; 7. Arizona 30-11; 8. Texas Tech 30-11; 9. Texas 35-11; 10. FLORIDA 30-13; 11. Ole Miss 31-12; 12. Louisville 23-14; 13. East Carolina 30-9; 14. Florida State 23-16; 15. South Carolina 26-15; 16. Pittsburgh 20-11; 17. Oregon 27-11; 18. Louisiana Tech 32-11; 19. Stanford 24-9; 20. Old Dominion 31-11; 21. Charlotte 31-14; 22. Southern Miss 29-14; 23. Indiana 20-9; 24. UC-Irvine 26-14; 25. Fairfield 29-1.

GATORS GET AN ASSIST FROM LSU

LSU did the Gators a favor Monday afternoon by splitting a doubleheader with Arkansas. Had Arkansas won both games, it would have ended Florida’s chances to win another SEC regular season championship. The Razorbacks (40-8, 19-5 SEC) have completed their regular season while the Gators have a three-game set with Texas A&M this weekend at Katie Seashole Pressly Stadium. Win all three and UF (37-8, 16-5 SEC) earns a share of the league title.

After taking two of three on the road against 12th-ranked Missouri this past weekend, the Gators dropped one spot to fourth in the latest D1Softball.com poll.

D1Softball.com poll: 1. Oklahoma 39-1; 2. UCLA 32-3; 3. Alabama 39-7; 4. FLORIDA 37-8; 5. Washington 35-9; 6. Oklahoma State 35-6; 7. Florida State 36-8-1; 8. Arkansas 40-8; 9. Arizona State 31-12; 10. Arizona 33-8; 11. LSU 29-17; 12. Missouri 35-13; 13. Louisiana 38-9; 14. Oregon 31-14; 15. Clemson 37-4; 16. Texas 35-9; 17. Kentucky 35-12; 18. Tennessee 38-8; 19. Minnesota 25-7; 20. Virginia Tech 32-12; 21. Michigan 28-5; 22. Ole Miss 34-16; 23. Duke 34-10; 24. Notre Dame 28-12; 25. James Madison 30-1.

OVER, UNDER, AROUND AND THROUGH THE SEC Alabama: Jameson Williams, who was the 13th-ranked wide receiver in the country out of high school, is transferring to Alabama. Williams had 15 catches for 256 yards and three touchdowns during his Buckeye career … Robert Horry, who has seven NBA championship rings, now has a college degree after graduation ceremonies over the weekend.

Arkansas: Defensive lineman Tre Williams has transferred to Arkansas from Missouri. Williams had 21 tackles, a forced fumble and two sacks last year. He was recruited to Missouri by current Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom.

Auburn: Redshirt freshman quarterback Chayil Garnett put his name in the transfer portal. He played for Bill Castle at Lakeland High School. Also transferring out are redshirt D-lineman Jay Hardy, a former 4-star prospect, and D-lineman Jaren Hardy, who was a 4-star recruit in 2019.

Georgia: Former 4-star safety Major Burns, who played in six games in 2020, is transferring out. He was the 11th-ranked safety in the country in 2020.

Kentucky: Chin Coleman is leaving the basketball staff at Illinois to work for John Calipari. Also expected to join the Kentucky staff from Illinois is former UK assistant and USF head coach Orlando Antigua … Nolan Hickman, the 4th-ranked point guard in the country, has asked out of his signed LOI.

LSU: Punter Zach Von Rosenberg has signed a free agent contract with the Minnesota Vikings. He averaged 43.9 yards per punt in 2020.

Mississippi State: Wide receiver Geor’quarius Spivey, who caught 11 passes for 121 yards last season, has put his name in the transfer portal.

Tennessee: Linebacker Juwan Mitchell, who led Texas in tackles with 62 in 2020, is transferring to Tennessee … Undrafted corner Bryce Thompson has signed a free agent deal with the New Orleans Saints.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: It will take two more years before the College Football Playoff expands, but it is going to expand. We just don’t know how many teams are going to be involved or whether it will be a gradual increase from four to six teams before involving eight, 12 or 16 later on. Probably the two biggest reasons we won’t see an expanded playoff before the 2023 season has to do with money – as in how much more television money the extra games will generate and how to divide it up since expansion means more inclusion for Group of Five conferences. The most compelling reason why playoff expansion is a question of when and not if is pointed out in a Sports Illustrated article by Ross Dellinger. The percentage of schools that advance to a postseason championship in all sports but football ranges from 18 to 25 percent. The percentage of schools that participate in the College Football Playoff is 3 percent. Boredom is setting in among fans who are tired of seeing the same teams in the final four every single year. The only way to break the boredom and make sure fans stay engaged is to add more teams.