FLORIDA FOOTBALL: Napier's Got a Plan and It's Working

“You say you got a real solution, well, we’d all love to see the plan” – From Revolution by The Beatles

photo Chris Spears

Thoughts of the Day

10.16.23

by Franz Beard

Billy Napier has a plan. He’s been telling us he’s got one ever since he arrived in Gainesville back in December of 2021, but it might have taken Saturday’s 41-39 come-from-behind win over South Carolina in Columbia to convince a hefty portion of the Gator Nation that the plan is actually working.

The significance of beating South Carolina has less to do with breaking a 5-game losing streak away from Gainesville as it does with the way the Gators (5-2, 3-1 SEC) came from 10 down in the final 9:11. In those final minutes, the Gators went from dead in the water to empowered. The offense did its part by going 75 yards on 14 plays to cut South Carolina’s lead to 37-34. That got Austin Armstrong’s defense into the act by producing two three-and-outs, one that counted, one that didn’t. The first one was nullified by a 15-yard roughing the passer penalty. You may not think of that as something important in the grand scheme of things, but it was another of the game’s turning points because the Gators got to three-and-out the Gamecocks a second time. Two consecutive holds for a unit that was clueless in the third quarter. Gator fans were giddy. South Carolina fans were in shock.

When the offense got the ball again Graham Mertz threw three straight incompletions. Some quarterbacks would get the yips and either short arm or airmail their fourth down throw, but Mertz evaded a rush and heaved a 26-yard on-the-run laser to Ricky Pearsall, who made a leaping catch in South Carolina territory. Fourth down converted. Dagger in the South Carolina heart. More dismay among the Gamecock faithful.

What kind of rally would it be without some sort of divine intervention? That came when Pearsall got two hands on a Mertz pass and deflected it four yards forward. Tre Wilson just happened to be in the neighborhood so he caught the ball in stride and was 12 yards farther downfield before he was stopped. Mertz and Pearsall connected for what proved to be the game-winning TD with 47 seconds to go.

South Carolina still had time to score a touchdown to win the game, but for a third time, Austin Armstrong’s defense came through, this time with a Miguel Mitchell interception, the only turnover of the entire game.

Put it all together and you have a milestone win because (1) the Gators are on track to equal or better last year’s six wins; (2) mathematically UF is still in the SEC East hunt, just a game behind Georgia; (3) for the second straight week the offense opened up in large part because Wilson and Boardingham are significant enough threats that bracketing Pearsall becomes risky; (4) Mertz proved that he can come through in the clutch; (5) this was the first time Austin Armstrong’s defense came through with game-saving plays with the outcome in doubt; and (6) the Gators have the momentum of a win during the bye week ahead of Georgia.

Had the Gators lost to South Carolina, you can bet the sharp knives of the critics would already be slicing and dicing away, but the Gators got the win and it is another box checked on Napier’s restoration plan. Some folks will still criticize, but that goes with the territory. What is important to know is that the Gators are making progress, maybe not as fast as some would like, but it’s progress just the same.

Poll-iticks: Georgia still No. 1, Southern Cal takes a plunge

Associated Press top 25: 1. Georgia 7-0; 2. Michigan 7-0; 3. Ohio State 6-0; 4. Florida State 6-0; 5. Washington 5-0; 6. Oklahoma 6-0; 7. Penn State 6-0; 8. Texas 5-1; 9. Oregon 5-1; 10. North Carolina 6-0; 11. Alabama 6-1; 12. Oregon State 6-1; 13. Ole Miss 5-1; 14. Utah 5-1; 15. Notre Dame 6-2; 16. Duke 5-1; 17. Tennessee 5-1; 18. Southern California 6-1; 19. LSU 5-2; 20. Missouri 6-1; 21. Louisville 6-1; 22. Air Force 6-0; 23. Tulane 5-1; 24. Iowa 6-1; 25. UCLA 4-2

Coaches top 25: 1. Georgia 7-0; 2. Michigan 7-0; 3. Ohio State 6-0; 4. Florida State 6-0; 5. Washington 5-1; 6. Penn State 6-0; 7. Oklahoma 6-0; 8. (TIE) Texas 5-1 and Alabama 6-1; 10. North Carolina 6-0; 11. Oregon 5-1; 12. Ole Miss 5-1; 13. Oregon State 6-1; 14. Utah 5-1; 15. Tennessee 5-1; 16. Southern California 6-1; 17. Duke 5-1; 18. Notre Dame 6-2; 19. LSU 5-2; 20. Missouri 6-1; 21. Louisville 6-1; 22. Air Force 6-0; 23. Iowa 6-1; 24. Tulane 5-1; 25. UCLA 4-2

SEC football

No. 11 Alabama (6-1, 4-0 SEC): Nick Saban can’t be happy about the way Alabama is closing out games. Although the Crimson Tide is 4-0 in SEC games, they’ve only scored nine points combined in the fourth quarter. Also, while Alabama ranks third in the nation in sacks (26), the Tide is 130th in sacks allowed (31). Next week: vs. No. 17 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC)

Arkansas (2-5, 0-4 SEC): The offensive struggles are very real. In their last three SEC games, the Razorbacks have gained a combined 710 yards. In those same three games, the Razorbacks have run for a combined 178 yards, averaging 1.71 yards per carry. Next week: vs. Mississippi State (3-3, 0-3 SEC)

Auburn (3-3, 0-3 SEC): Next week: vs. No. 13 Ole Miss (5-1, 2-1 SEC)

No. 1 Georgia (7-0, 4-0 SEC): The injury to Brock Bowers is a real concern but he has an open week to get treatment. Diagnosed as an ankle sprain, Bowers was due for an MRI which should tell us how long he will need for recovery. Bowers has played through injuries before. He’s been on the field for all 36 games in his career. Next week: Open

Kentucky (5-2, 2-2 SEC): Two things that trouble Kentucky fans. First of all, in 11 seasons on the job, Mark Stoops has exactly two wins over SEC teams that finished with a winning record in conference games … Quarterback Devin Leary was supposed to be the greatest thing since the invention of crushed ice, but through seven games he’s completed only 54.4 percent of his passes and seven have been picked off. Against Missouri, Leary averaged just 4.4 per attempt. Next week: Open

No. 19 LSU (5-2, 4-1 SEC): Because LSU has lost twice, you don’t hear Jayden Daniels listed among the top five Heisman candidates, but he’s having a Heisman quality year. Daniels has thrown for 2,294 yards (11.0 per attempt) and 22 touchdowns (only three picks). He’s also run for 515 yards and four touchdowns. Daniels has the highest QB rating in the country at 197.74. Next week: vs. Army (2-4)

Mississippi State (3-3, 0-3 SEC): HBC Zach Arnett gave no information about the status of quarterback Will Rogers during the bye week. If Rogers is unable to answer the bell against Arkansas this week, the starter at QB is expected to be Vanderbilt transfer Mike Wright, who has thrown 11 passes all season. Next week: at Arkansas (2-5, 0-4 SEC)

No. 20 Missouri (6-1, 2-1 SEC): Kentucky did something no one has been able to do all year by taking Luther Burden out of the game (2 catches, 15 yards), but the Tigers still hung 38 points on the Wildcats. While Mizzou’s offense didn’t hit on all cylinders, the defense got four sacks and forced three turnovers. Next week: vs. South Carolina (2-4, 1-3 SEC)

No. 13 Ole Miss (5-1, 2-1 SEC): Bye week emphasis was improving third downs on both sides of the football. The Rebels are 9th in the league in converting on offense, 12th in getting teams off the field on third down defensively. Next week: at Auburn (3-3, 0-3 SEC)

South Carolina (2-4, 1-3 SEC): Division II transfer Mario Anderson has been a revelation in the running game. In the last three games he’s carried the ball 56 times for 287 yards and two TDs. He gained 98 on 20 carries Saturday against the Gators. Next week: at No. 20 Missouri (6-1, 2-1 SEC)

No. 17 Tennessee (5-1, 2-1 SEC): The Joe Milton experiment isn’t exactly going well. The Vols are winning but it’s because they have an exceptional running game and a stout defense. The Vols average 230.33 rushing yards per game and the defense ranks fourth in the Southeastern Conference. Milton is averaging only 6.9 yards per pass attempt with 10 TDPs, quite a drop from last year when Hendon Hooker averaged 9.5 per attempt while throwing 27 touchdown passes. Next week: at No. 11 Alabama (6-1, 4-0 SEC)

Texas A&M (4-3, 2-2 SEC): The Bobby Petrino experiment isn’t going very well. In four SEC games, the Aggies are averaging only 23.5 points and just 349.75 yards. In three non-conference games, the Aggies averaged 44 points and 467 yards per game. The dropoff in SEC play is alarming and hardly what was expected when Jimbo Fisher brought on Petrino as his play caller. Next week: Open

Vanderbilt (2-6, 0-4 SEC): No team in the SEC needs an open date more than Vandy, which has lost six straight games. Although the Commodores did get 20 points against Georgia, they managed only 219 yards and only 18 on the ground. Vandy hasn’t run for more than 97 yards in an SEC game. Next week: Open

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Here are eight things that have me thinking on a Sunday night.

1. It’s a long time before championship weekend in December, but based on what I’ve seen so far, here are the four teams that I think will make the Final Four – Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Texas.

2. The five best players I’ve seen this season are Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia; Michael Penix, QB, Washington; Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU; Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina; and Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oklahoma.

3. After watching the way Alabama flounders late in games, I can’t see the Crimson Tide making the playoff. I’m not even sure they’ll win the SEC West because that means they’ll have to beat Tennessee and LSU in consecutive games.

4. What will the CFB playoff committee do if a 2-loss LSU wins the SEC Championship? No 2-loss team has ever made the playoff. Would the committee choose a 1-loss Georgia over 2-loss SEC champ LSU? Or would they choose both? That would certainly blow up the college football universe.

5. The more I see Michigan, the more I think the Wolverines have what it takes to win it all. Michigan quarterback JJ McCarthy is every bit as good as all the Left Coast QBs everyone is raving about and the Wolverines have depth everywhere. Not even Georgia may have as much depth on the line of scrimmage as Michigan.

6. I can’t see Caleb Williams winning a second straight Heisman, not after Southern Cal lost by four touchdowns to Notre Dame with Williams completing three passes to the Irish. To win the Heisman, Williams is going to have to play lights out to lead the Trojans past Utah, Washington, Oregon and UCLA. Based on what I’ve seen of the Southern Cal defense, there are a couple of losses in there.

7. I’m still wondering how it is experts think Florida State has a playoff-worthy resume. The Seminoles have a win over LSU, which has two losses, and a win over the worst Clemson team in years. I think the Seminoles are good, just not that good.

8. Texas A&M is about to go 8-4. Again. They fired Kevin Sumlin because he consistently went 8-4. With Texas entering the SEC and Oklahoma always recruiting Texas so well, I can see the Aggies reacting by buying Jimbo Fisher out.