Thoughts of the Day: November 12, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

SAMFORD A MUST WIN? YOU BETCHA Back in August the Samford Bulldogs were just another D1AA team that needed to balance its athletic department budget with a paycheck game in The Swamp against what we thought would be the mighty Gators. Well, the Gators aren’t looking so mighty and this looks like more than a thank you sir, may I have another game for Samford.

On paper, the Gators should win by six or seven touchdowns, but who knows which Florida (4-5) team will bother to show up Saturday at noon? If it’s the Gators who have played well at times this season, it will be the blowout. If the Gators are emotionally drained from three straight losses, seeing two coaches fired and social media all but calling for Dan Mullen on a slow boat to China, then this could be tougher than expected. Another question that looms large: How many Florida fans will bother showing up? A slim crowd could add to the dreariness of a Saturday in The Swamp that fans think has no meaning.

Here’s what needs to happen. Florida needs to play this game as if a championship is on the line. The Gators need to be in a take no prisoners mood from start to finish. Sure, it’s little old Samford but this is not a time for pity. It’s a time for the Gators to begin the first steps on the way to recovery. A decisive win Saturday followed by wins at Missouri and against FSU can salvage a good bit of pride and it can happen if the right Florida team shows up. The Sayer says sooth: FLORIDA 42, Samford 10

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER

No. 1 Georgia (9-0, 7-0 SEC) at Tennessee (5-4, 3-3 SEC): Georgia is favored to win this game by 20 points, but it could turn out to be rather interesting because of two reasons – (1) Tennessee runs tempo and if the Vols can move the ball they’ll have a chance to wear out the Georgia defense; and (2) Georgia has yet to face a decent passing team and the Vols not only throw it well, they’ve got receivers who can go deep. Does that mean Tennessee is going to win this game? Hardly, but the Vols may have a better chance than the oddsmakers are giving them. Georgia’s strategy has to be ground and pound because the Vols have given up more than 200 rushing yards in their last three SEC contests and they allowed Florida 283 earlier in the year. The best way to keep those defensive linemen rested is to keep them on the sideline by pounding it between the tackles and only have Stetson Bennett IV throw it when the Vols try to load up the box to stop the run. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker averages 10.2 yards per pass attempt, has 21 TDPs (just two completed to the other team) and he has run for 458 yards. Georgia wins this one but it could be the toughest game the Bulldogs have played this year. The Sayer says sooth: Georgia 34, Tennessee 20

New Mexico State (1-8) at No. 2 Alabama (8-1): This is a will take a beating for a million dollar paycheck game. New Mexico State will proudly give up touchdown after touchdown as long as Bama AD Bill Byrne deposits that big check in the bank account. Alabama is favored to win by 51 points. New Mexico State isn’t nearly as good as the Southern Miss team Alabama hung 63 on back in September. The Sayer says sooth: Alabama 66, New Mexico State 3

No. 11 Texas A&M (7-2, 4-2 SEC) at No. 15 Ole Miss (7-2, 4-2 SEC): Give Lane Kiffin a healthy Matt Corral throwing to healthy Dontario Drummond, Jonathan Mingo and Braylon Sanders and this would be a no-brainer. You’d pick Ole Miss even with that leaky defense. But, Corral is hobbling, Mingo is out, Drummond is a maybe and Sanders still isn’t at full speed. And the defense is still bad. So, why is it that Texas A&M is only favored by 2.5 points? It can’t be that the Ole Miss defense has suddenly gone respectable. The Rebels gave up 284 on the ground last week to Liberty and a few weeks earlier, Arkansas ran for 350. The Aggies run the ball pretty well – 263.3 per game in the last three – and you have to think that’s what Jimbo Fisher is going to do, pound away and keep Lane Kiffin’s offense off the field. Even if Corral is not 100 percent and even with stud receivers MIA, any Lane Kiffin offense is dangerous to behold. Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane are well on their way to 1,000-yard seasons. Ole Miss isn’t going to be able to stop them. The Sayer says sooth: Texas A&M 28, Ole Miss 23

No. 25 Arkansas (6-3, 2-3 SEC) at LSU (4-5, 2-4 SEC): The Hogs are bowl eligible now that they have six wins. The question heading into Saturday night in Baton Rouge is how will they handle prosperity? Arkansas is favored by three and LSU is really beaten up, but even with all the injuries, LSU probably has more talent. The Tigers played a white knuckler last week in Tuscaloosa, a game they could have won with a break or two. This game is at home and with a win this week and next against Louisiana-Monroe, LSU becomes bowl eligible, a nice way to send Coach Oeaux off. Here are the stats that matter. Arkansas is averaging 243.78 yards per game on the ground. LSU gives up 111.89 and is coming off a game in which the Tigers held Alabama to six yards. If Arkansas can’t run on LSU, the Hogs can’t win. If the Tigers can give Max Johnson time to throw against Barry Odom’s blitz packages, the Tigers have a really good chance to win. This one feels like an upset. The Sayer says sooth: LSU 28, Arkansas 24

Mississippi State (5-4, 3-3 SEC) at No. 17 Auburn (6-3, 3-2 SEC): The big question for Auburn Saturday afternoon is can the Tigers keep Mississippi State from controlling the ball with that short passing game? Mississippi State averages almost 35 minutes a game of ball possession, and just a couple of weeks ago knocked off Kentucky when Will Rogers completed 36-39 passes. This is going to be a lot like this week’s Georgia and Texas A&M games in that Auburn is going to have to play defense with its offense to win this game. If the Tigers can run the ball and keep the chains moving they probably win but it’s questionable. Last week Auburn had its worst offensive game of the year, managing just 226 yards and only three points in a loss to Texas A&M. If this game comes down to a field goal, you have to like Auburn’s chances since Mississippi State’s kickers are just 9-17 this year and they blew three field goals in last week’s loss to Arkansas. Auburn is favored by 5.5 points. The Sayer says sooth: Auburn 20, Mississippi State 14

Kentucky (6-3, 4-3 SEC) at Vanderbilt (2-7, 0-5 SEC): Kentucky has lost three in a row and desperately needs a get well game. It’s a chance for Chris Rodriguez (918 yards) to crack the 1,000-yard barrier and for quarterback Will Levis (10 interceptions, four in the last two games) to recall that the object of the passing game is to complete passes to your team and not the opponent. Wan’Dale Robinson caught 13 passes for 166 yards against Tennessee last week. If Levis will target him that many times against Vandy’s defense, he could crack the 1,000-yard barrier (825 receiving yards so far). As for Vandy, the Commodores are coming off their best offensive game (380 yards, 28 points) against an SEC opponent this year. If the Dores score two TDs against Kentucky they can call this game a success. Kentucky is favored by 21 and should win by more. The Sayer says sooth: Kentucky 35, Vanderbilt 7

South Carolina (5-4, 2-4 SEC) at Missouri (4-5, 1-4 SEC): South Carolina has reason to be excited about this one. With a win the Gamecocks become bowl eligible. Of course, Mizzou needs this one and one more to become bowl eligible. The oddsmakers don’t know what to make of this one. South Carolina is favored by a single point. If the Gamecocks run the ball the way they did against Florida last week (289 yards) they probably win since Mizzou is next to last nationally in rush defense. Mizzou desperately needs QB Connor Bazelac to play. He missed last week’s game and is questionable for South Carolina. The Sayer says sooth: South Carolina 24, Missouri 20

SIX OTHER GAMES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEKEND

No. 19 Purdue (6-3) at No. 4 Ohio State (8-1): Purdue has beaten Iowa when the Hawkeyes were No. 2 and Michigan State when the Spartans were No. 3. Can they take down No. 4 Ohio State at the Horseshoe this weekend? The Buckeyes are favored to win by 21, but this feels like it’s going to be white knuckles.

No. 6 Michigan (8-1) at Penn State (6-3): Michigan is favored to win this one by 1.5 points, but the game is in Happy Valley. For James Franklin, a win could make him the odds-on favorite to land the Southern Cal job. It’s a whole lot easier to win the Pac-12 than it is to be in the Big Ten East with Ohio State, Michigan and Michigan State. If Sean Clifford has a big game, Penn State wins and ends Michigan’s Big Ten championship dreams. Again.

No. 8 Oklahoma (9-0) at No. 13 Baylor (7-2): This one would be a whole lot more interesting if Baylor hadn’t lost by two at TCU last week. This game’s in Wacky Waco where the Bears play much better than they do on the road. Can Baylor stop freshman phenom Caleb Williams? Can the Okie defense stop the 1-2 running punch of Abram Smith (1,055 yards) and Trestan Ebner (601)? Oklahoma is a 5.5-point favorite.

No. 9 Notre Dame (8-1) at Virginia (6-3): Brennan Armstrong (3,557 yards, 27 TDPs) is the best quarterback the Irish have faced this year and he has five receivers with at least 28 catches. Stop Armstrong and you stop Virginia since the Cavaliers don’t run the ball very well. Jack Coan has to have a good game throwing the ball for Notre Dame to win this. The Irish are favored by 5.5 points.

No. 16 North Carolina State (7-2) at No. 12 Wake Forest (8-1): The winner of this one will have the tiebreaker in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. North Carolina State’s game plan on defense is pretty simple. Stop Sam Hartman (2,873 passing yards, 27 TDPs) and win the game. If Hartman lights up the Wolfpack it’s all over. Wake is favored by two.

Miami (5-4) at Florida State (3-6): Miami has won three straight against ranked opponents. FSU isn’t ranked and it isn’t going to matter. Tyler Van Dyke to Charleston Rambo is going to be a serious problem for the FSU defense. Miami is favored by 2.5 points. It should be worse.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: UConn has a football coach now that Jim Mora Jr. has taken the job. Now all the Huskies need is a conference to play in. If the folks in Storrs had functioning brains they would be begging the Atlantic Coast Conference to take them. That would give UConn a chance to have a decent football schedule and it would give the ACC two big name basketball programs – the UConn men (3 national championships) and perennial power UConn women (11 national championships). Add UConn and then raid West Virginia and the ACC might be able to convince ESPN to renegotiate its media rights deal.