Thoughts of the Day: November 19, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning: FRUGAL … “IT DON’T MEAN A DAMN THING EXCEPT TO SAVE”

The old Cajun storyteller Justin Wilson used to tell one about this little boy named Dejean who was given a word by his teacher with instructions to use this word in an essay. The word was frugal. Dejean didn’t know the meaning of the word until his father explained that “it don’t mean a damn thing except to save.”

Dejean’s essay involved a beautiful princess who fell into a pit while riding her horse. Along came a handsome prince who saw her in the pit and was ready to rescue when the princess hollered up, “Frugal me! Frugal me!” He frugaled her and they lived happily ever after.

As the Gators (5-5, 2-5 SEC) travel to Missouri (5-5, 2-4 SEC) for their final SEC game of the season, will the team come up with a performance that will help rescue Dan Mullen’s Florida coaching career from going belly up? Back in September we might have laughed at the possibility of Florida needing a win over Missouri to keep Mullen off the Extinct Species List, but that was then and this is now. Now, Mullen desperately needs a win and not just any win, one that is clearly decisive. A rout would even be nice.

How do the Gators make it happen? First of all, Missouri is likely without banged up QB Connor Bazelac and without him the Tigers almost certainly try the ground and pound route with the hope of dialing up a fifth 200-yard rushing game for Tyler Badie (1,239 yards, 12 TDs; 50-337 receiving, 4 TDs). When the Gators have the ball, they will be going against a Mizzou defense that is notoriously bad against the run (249.6 yards per game, 5.79 per carry). The Tigers will also be minus three starters in the secondary.

The game plan defensively has to be load up the box to stop Badie from running the ball and put a spy on him to keep him from hurting the Gators on wheel routes. The best way to attack the Tigers is a run-first approach, throwing off play action. Quarterbacks have had success running the ball. This sets up as potentially a big game for Emory Jones, who is coming off a game in which he threw for 464 yards and six touchdowns while rushing for 86 and another score.

If the Gators find themselves in a halftime hole like they found themselves last week, Mullen should try the Justin Wilson approach and holler, “Frugal me! Frugal me!” It worked for the princess in Dejean’s story. The Gators are favored by 8.5. The Sayer says sooth: FLORIDA 41, Missouri 31

GATORS IMPROVE TO 3-0 WITH ROUT OF MILWAUKEE

NBA scouts (39 of them) flocked to the O-Dome to size up Milwaukee freshman Patrick Baldwin Jr. What they saw was a defensive clinic as Mike White kept Baldwin off balance the entire game by constantly switching defenders on him. Florida held Baldwin to 13 points and without a 3-pointer as part of an impressive 81-45 rout of the Panthers.

The Gators held Milwaukee to 18-58 shooting overall (31 percent) and only 2-12 on 3-pointers (16.7 percent). Florida ran a 2-2-1 zone press and then dropped into a straight man-to-man defense. The Gators were quicker, more physical and rarely allowed the Panthers a clear shot at the basket.

Although Milwaukee had a distinctive size advantage, the Panthers couldn’t get the ball inside against Colin Castleton and Anthony Duruji. On the perimeter, Tyree Appleby, Brandon McKissic, Myreon Jones and Phlandrous Fleming Jr. harassed the Milwaukee guards into bad shots, bad passes and way too much time getting into offensive sets. This is a Florida team that has the look of the best defensive team Mike White has had at the University of Florida and perhaps the best that Florida has put on the court since the 2014 Gators that made the Final Four.

Castleton continues to impress. Coming off a performance against Florida State that earned him SEC Player of the Week honors, Castleton went off for 19 points and yanked down a game-high rebounds to go with one assist, two steals and a blocked shot to lead a balanced Florida attack. Appleby, who hit 4-7 from the 3-point line, contributed 14 points, six rebounds, five assists, three steals and a blocked shot to the UF effort while Anthony Duruji had another strong performance with 12 points, seven rebounds, one assist, one steal and one blocked shot. Fleming came off the bench to score 12, his best scoring game as a Gator.

Next up for the Gators will be California (2-2) at the Suncoast Federal Credit Union Arena in in the Fort Myers Tip-off Sunday evening.

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER

Charleston Southern (4-5) at No. 1 Georgia (10-0): We could have a JT Daniels sighting since this game will be all but over before the second quarter begins. Kirby Smart probably wants to get Daniels some work since he needs some recent experience at QB in case Bennett goes down with any kind of injury in the next couple of weeks. This will be dial-a-score no matter who’s playing quarterback. The Sayer says sooth: Georgia 61, Charleston Southern 3

No. 21 Arkansas (7-3, 3-3 SEC) at No. 2 Alabama (9-1, 5-1 SEC): Nick Saban has two weeks to get his defense playing at an efficient level and Arkansas is just the kind of team that will put them to a test. Can the Bama pass rush contain K.J. Jefferson (474 yards to go with 1,990 passing yards)? Can Will Anderson Jr. (12.5 sacks to lead the nation) dominate? He’s in a death star battle with Jordan Davis of Georgia for SEC Defensive Player of the year. A big game would help his cause. Expect the Alabama offense to go run first and throw off play action. Bryce Young has thrown for 33 TDs with only three picks. Alabama is favored by 20.5 points. The Sayer says sooth: Alabama 38, Arkansas 14

Vanderbilt (2-8, 0-6 SEC) at No. 12 Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2 SEC): When you’re as banged up as Ole Miss, there’s nothing quite like a home game against Vandy. It’s like a second homecoming game. Midway through the third quarter fans will be leaving the stadium to resume eating and drinking in The Grove. Matt Corral isn’t going to be needed more than a half. Pity Vandy QB Mike Wright. The Ole Miss defense really gets after QBs (5th nationally with 35 sacks). Wright will be doing his feets don’t fail me now routine early and often. Ole Miss is a 36.5-point favorite. The Sayer says sooth: Ole Miss 54, Vanderbilt 14

Prairie View A&M (7-2) at No. 16 Texas A&M (7-3): The Aggies are on track to have two 1,000-yard rushers this season. Isaiah Spiller (914 yards, 5 TDs) needs 86 and Devon Achane (816, 7 TDs) needs 184. Spiller hits the 1,000 mark for sure. Achane might have to wait a week. This one will be over almost before Aggie fans get their seats warm. The Sayer says sooth: Texas A&M 51, Prairie View A&M 14

Tennessee State (5-5) at No. 25 Mississippi State (6-4): Former Ohio State Heisman Trphy winner Eddie George brings his D1AA Tigers to Starkville where Mike Leach has Mississippi State heaving the rock about 55 times a game. Will Rogers (3,724 passing yards, 29 TDPs) will go over the 4,000-yard mark for the season in the first half. The Sayer says sooth: Mississippi State 42, Tennessee State 10

New Mexico State (1-9) at Kentucky (7-3): Whoever is in charge of scheduling at UK needs a bonus for getting Vandy and New Mexico State back-to-back in November. There’s nothing like a 36-point underdog when you’re trying hard to get to nine wins and you’ve got two games to go. The goals for this game should be to get Wan’Dale Robinson past 1,000 receiving yards (he has 900), Will Levis to 20 TDPs (he has 19) and run for 400 yards (341 vs. Missouri is the best this season. Any win is a good win at Kroger Field but especially ones that you win by six or more touchdowns. The Sayer says sooth: Kentucky 49, New Mexico State 7

Auburn (6-4, 3-3 SEC) at South Carolina (5-5, 2-5 SEC): South Carolina needs a win to become bowl eligible and it might be the perfect time to spring an upset since Auburn is coming off a game in which it gave up 40 straight points to Mississippi State. The Gamecocks play very well at home and if they can run the ball (Auburn has allowed more than 200 yards on the ground in three SEC games) they’ll have a chance. Auburn will start LSU transfer T.J. Finley at QB. He’s got a big arm but will be going against a South Carolina zone that has picked off 14 passes, which is tied for fifth in the country this year. Can the Gamecocks mix up their coverages enough to confuse Finley, who is making his first start of the year? Can they stop Tank Bigsby his best game of the season running the ball? Auburn is a 7.5-point road favorite. The Sayer says sooth: Auburn 24, South Carolina 20

South Alabama (5-5) at Tennessee (5-5): Former South Carolina starting QB is injured but even if he were healthy, South Alabama would get clobbered. The Jaguars are second in the Fun Belt in total defense but it won’t matter. Tennessee will win this one easily and become bowl eligible. Nobody thought Josh Heupel could pull that off but he’s got an offense that runs the ball very well and puts points on the scoreboard. The Vols are 28-point favorites. They’ll win by at least that much. The Sayer says sooth: Tennessee 49, South Alabama 17

Louisiana-Monroe (4-6) at LSU (4-6): Just what the doctor ordered for an LSU team that has lost the last three games. Coach Oeaux needs two regular season wins to get the Tigers to a bowl game, which would be quite an accomplishment in a season that has seen LSU devastated by injuries and Coach Oeaux fired. It really doesn’t matter who will start at quarterback or that the LSU offensive line is banged up. The Tigers are favored by 29 and they could even show up bored and still win this one. The Sayer says sooth: LSU 44, Louisiana-Monroe 17

FOUR GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEKEND

No. 7 Michigan State (9-1) at No. 4 Ohio State (9-1): Mel Tucker has the big contract extension (10 years, $10 million a year) to stay at Michigan State. He probably will wish he were still talking to LSU by the time the Buckeyes take him to the woodshed. Ohio State is favored by 19.

No. 10 Wake Forest (9-1) at Clemson (7-3): You don’t know which Clemson team will show up or if the Tigers have what it takes to stop Sam Hartman. The Tigers are shaky 4.5-point favorites. Dabo wouldn’t lose four in the regular season would he?

SMU (8-2) at No. 5 Cincinnati (10-0): SMU is the best in the American Athletic Conference in protecting the passer and Cincinnati is very average when it comes to pass rush. Can SMU give Tanner Mordecai (37 TDPs) enough time to pick the Bearcats apart. Cincinnati is favored by 11 but this could be a big upset.

No. 3 Oregon (9-1) at No. 23 Utah (7-3): Oregon has the ranking but Utah is home and favored to win by three. If Oregon loses the Pac-12 will go another year without a team in the College Football Playoff.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: This is the State of the State. The only Division I team in the state with a winning record is UCF, which has somehow pieced together a 6-4 record despite a devastating string of injuries. Florida (5-5), Miami (5-5) and Florida Atlantic (5-5) need a win to become bowl eligible. South Florida is 2-8 and Florida International is not only 1-9 but just fired head coach Butch Davis. Add them all together and the Division I teams in the state are a combined 24-36. It’s rather shocking when you consider that Miami (five), Florida (three) and Florida State (three) have combined for 11 national championships. Who would have thought this would ever happen?