Thoughts of the Day: November 2, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning: CIRCLING THE WAGONS … Dan Mullen might deny that he's adapted a bunker mentality, but that’s what people are reading into the optics of a Monday press conference gone bad. Two days removed from a second straight loss, this one a 27-point shelling at the hands of No. 1 Georgia, Mullen seemed terribly uncomfortable in a press conference that lasted a few seconds short of 13 minutes.

During his nearly 13 minutes on the microphone, Mullen deflected one question about taking a different approach to recruiting, used 170 words to answer a question about the remaining schedule that he could have answered in two sentences, gave a two-word answer to a question about Anthony Richardson (“We’ll see" was his response) and then spent the remaining minutes of the press conference looking like someone who couldn't wait to get this over and done with.

Mullen wasn't smiling, perhaps because he was prepared for a barrage of negative questions. When you've lost two games in a row and your season is on the brink, the negatives can be expected so there probably isn't much worth smiling about. There wasn't a lot of energy in his demeanor, perhaps because he knows there is no use delaying the inevitable. Change is overdue and Mullen knows it. That doesn't mean it's pleasant.

Mullen on the mike already had the Twitterverse going ballistic, but it went into an absolute frenzy when it was disclosed that all media access with the exception of his required 10 minutes on the weekly SEC Coaches Teleconference Wednesday morning has been canceled. That's not exactly a weather is here, wish you were beautiful announcement. The Twitterverse interpreted it as Dan's gone into the bunker to prepare for the siege ahead.

Some are calling this desperation on Mullen's part. The optics aren't good, that's for certain, but I would hesitate to call it desperation. He knows what the expectations are here, knows the Gators haven't lived up to expectations and knows also that there will be plenty of hurt feelings when the winds of change blow the hardest later this month.

Dan Mullen is a very smart man. Some might say he's way too smart for his own good. It's not lost on him that the Gators are 4-4 with all four losses in the Southeastern Conference. Nobody knows better than Dan Mullen that the Gators have outgained all eight opponents and yet the Gators have lost four times. When you're 4-4 and you're losing games that you could have and should have won, then you've got a team of underperformers. That falls right back in the lap of the head coach.

All four of the losses have been giveaways, even the one to Georgia. Say what you want about Mullen and recruiting, but there is enough talent for the Gators to have won every single game. All four losses, even the one to Georgia, were gifts. The losses to Alabama, Kentucky and LSU were all one-possession games. An interception, a missed extra point and a first quarter when the defense was a no show were the culprits against Alabama. An interception and a blocked field goal run back for a TD cost UF the Kentucky game. LSU? There aren't enough fingers to point but the defense was the proverbial lost ball in the high weeds and the offense gave the Tigers 21 points.

The Gators lost by 27 to Georgia but they gave that one away in perhaps the worst three-minute stretch of Florida football since the Nebraska Chainsaw Massacre in 1995. Florida-Georgia 2021 should have been – but wasn’t – white knuckles.

Reality says the Gators are 4-4, but you know as well as I they should be no worse than 6-1 at this point … perhaps 7-0 if they hadn't blown off both feet in that three minute stretch against Georgia. So, why is it 4-4 instead of 6-1 or 7-0? The Readers Digest condensed version says the offense has given opponents 69 points on turnovers, special teams are an adventure with the exception of the punter and you never know if the defense is going to show up or do some snoozerobics like they did in Baton Rouge.

Added together, Mullen has all the ingredients for insurrection within his team. Some think this is the logical explanation for the abrupt and somewhat arrogant press conference Monday, but let's not forget there are still four games to go. Win them and it's 8-4, which is what some of the experts were thinking back in August. Four wins and then a win in the bowl game and Mullen finishes 9-4, which just so happens to be the record UF had in 2007 when a certain Tim Tebow won the Heisman. That team also lost games it should have won, but it bounced back the next season in a very big way.

That was light years ago, however, and much has changed, but remains a Florida program that can still move onward and upward with a strong finish to 2021. Once the season is over, it will take avoiding a wholesale exit via the transfer portal . Since Mullen isn't going to win big in 2022 with incoming recruits, he needs to go hard into the transfer portal for plug and play types that can make a difference, preferably talented kids with 2-3 years or remaining eligibility. They're out there. Lots of them. That has to be a priority.

Finally, if the Good Ship Gator is to avoid hitting an iceberg and going down like the Titanic, change has to be made even if it means saying good-bye to some old friends.

It's time and Dan Mullen knows it.

OVER, UNDER, AROUND AND THROUGH THE SEC

Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC): Drew Sanders, who has been out with a hand injury, could be ready to go Saturday against LSU.

Arkansas (5-3, 1-3 SEC): Sam Pittman says the final four games for the Hogs are "big because of the way we started the season." One win will make the Hogs bowl-eligible.

Auburn (6-2, 3-1 SEC): "The one story that nobody has talked about and you better start paying attention to them is Auburn," says Paul Finebaum, who believes Auburn is a legitimate SEC West contender.

Georgia (8-0, 6-0 SEC): Kirby Smart says Georgia's upperclassmen are one of the reasons the Bulldogs are unbeaten and ranked No. 1 in the nation. "For the first time, we have a large group of really good leaders, juniors and seniors, but both classes are full of guys that love football and they enjoy practice," Smart said on "SEC This Morning."

Kentucky (6-2, 4-2 SEC): Following the Wildcats’ loss to Mississippi State, HBC Mark Stoops said, “It’s been awhile since we’ve had a game like that. They beat us in all phases … we got pushed around. They outcoached us and outplayed us in every area.”

LSU (4-4, 2-3 SEC): Quarterback Myles Brennan has entered the NCAA transfer portal.

Mississippi State (5-3, 3-2 SEC): Following the win over Kentucky, Mike Leach said the Wildcats were simulating the MSU snap count, which is a rules violation. “If folks can get away with that we gotta start coaching it,” Leach said. Perhaps that also explains some of Florida’s eight false starts against UK?

Missouri (4-4, 1-3 SEC): Tyler Badie leads the SEC in rushing with 989 yards (11 TDs). He's also caught 40 passes for 305 yards and four TDs. Badie ranks No. 3 in the nation in scoring (90 points) and fourth in rushing.

Ole Miss (6-2, 3-2 SEC): Injuries are taking their toll on the Rebels. Wide receiver Jonathan Mingo is still sidelined with a broken foot. Braylon Sanders was unable to play against Auburn. Dontario Drummond played injured against Auburn. Right guard Ben Brown is done for the season and Caleb Warren is playing through an injury. Matt Corral missed time against Auburn with an injury, but played in the second half.

South Carolina (4-4, 1-4 SEC): Defensive back Jaylen Dickerson is doubtful for the game with the Gators. HBC Shane Beamer is optimistic quarterback Zeb Noland (knee) will be ready to go.

Tennessee (4-4, 2-3 SEC): Discussing the decision by quarterback Harrison Bailey to enter the transfer portal, HBC Josh Heupel said, “In some ways, disappointed in the timing of when he makes that decision. It is a different era in college athletics with the transfer portal over the last couple years.”

Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2 SEC): Discussing the improvement of his team since dropping two straight SEC games, HBC Jimbo Fisher said, "We kind of found out who we are."

Vanderbilt (2-7, 0-5 SEC): Vanderbilt is planning a blackout for its game with Kentucky on November 13. Judging by the scarcity of fans that were in attendance for the Commodores’ loss to Missouri, there will be far more people in Kentucky blue than Vanderbilt black.

COUNTDOWN TO FIRING DAY WEEK NINE

With the Sunday Night Massacre in Fort Worth that saw Gary Patterson out after 189 wins and 22 seasons, there are now eight job openings, only one of which (Kansas) has been filled.

Extinct Species List Les Miles, Kansas (Permanent replacement Lance Leipold) Randy Edsall, UConn Clay Helton, Southern Cal Chad Lunsford, Georgia Southern

Ed Orgeron, LSU

Nick Rolovich, Washington State

Matt Wells, Texas Tech

Gary Patterson, TCU

On Life Support Walt Bell, UMass: The Minutemen just got hosed by Liberty 62-7, but there help is on the way. The next two are against D1AA teams. Win those and it’s three wins baby!

Tom Arth, Akron: The Zips get to lose to Ball State this week, but they’ve already exceeded expectations with two wins.

Butch Davis, Florida International: The Panthers lost to Marshall 38-0. They haven’t beaten a Division I team this year and probably won’t.

Marcus Arroyo, UNLV: He kept his coaching record (0-14) perfect with a 51-20 loss to Nevada. The record could be broken against New Mexico this week.

Scott Frost, Nebraska: The Huskers are now 5-18 in one-possession games since Frost took over. Close counts in horseshoes and perhaps when there is a $20 million buyout to consider.

Justin Fuente, Virginia Tech: The Hokies are 4-4 and need to win three of the last four for Fuente to be gainfully employed after this season.

Endangered Species List Scot Loeffler, Bowling Green: Lefty got kicked out of the game Saturday but Bowling Green beat Buffalo for its third win of the season. Could he win two more? That would ensure he has a job next year.

Dino Babers, Syracuse: One more win and The Cuse is bowl eligible which means Babers won’t have to sell his house and move somewhere. I’ve been to Syracuse. That’s actually not a bad idea!

Chip Kelly, UCLA: The Bruins got hosed by Utah, their second straight loss. The Fire Chip Kelly folks are restless again but there is that $9 million buyout.

Seth Littrell, North Texas: The Mean Green have a 1-game winning streak now that they whacked Rice. This is not going to have a happy ending.

Phil Montgomery, Tulsa: The Phighting Phils lost to Navy on a night when Navy didn’t complete a single pass. The end could be near if Cincinnati blows their doors off Saturday.

Steve Addazio, Colorado State: The Lambs are 3-5 and the next four are perfectly losable. Addazio probably will be the coach next year but he’s on shaky ground.

Justin Wilcox, California: What’s this? A 2-game winning streak? It just goes to show you how bad the Pac-12 is.

Manny Diaz, Miami: Two straight weeks of beating ranked teams has quieted the folks who want Manny gone. He could actually finish the season on a 5-game winning streak. Go figure.

Jeff Scott, South Florida: The euphoria of a win over a Division I team ended with the loss to ECU. Houston and Cincinnati are next.

THE REALIGNMENT SHUFFLE

Here is what the Big 12, American Athletic and Sun Belt conferences are looking like after the latest wave of realignment and expansion and the big questions that will have to be answered in the weeks and months ahead.

The New Big 12: Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, West Virginia, BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, Houston. The big questions: Will the Big Ten offer Kansas and Iowa State? Will the Pac-12 expand by offering Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas and Kansas State? Will the Big 12 offer SMU, South Florida, Memphis and Tulane from the AAC?

The New American Athletic Conference: SMU, South Florida, East Carolina, Tulsa, Navy, Temple, Memphis, Tulane, Florida Atlantic, Charlotte, UT-San Antonio, North Texas, UAB, Rice. The big questions: Will the AAC try to expand to 16 teams? What will the AAC do if Memphis, South Florida, SMU and Tulane leave for the Big 12?

The New Sun Belt: Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, Georgia State, Troy, Georgia Southern, Louisiana, Louisiana-Monroe, South Alabama, Texas State, Arkansas State, Old Dominion, Southern Miss, Marshall. The big questions: With James Madison expected to join, making this a 14-team league for football, does expansion stop there since there are two non-football members (Little Rock, UT-Arlington) which means 16 for basketball? Or, does the league boot the non-football members and add two more for football?

The new Conference USA: Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Florida International, UTEP. The big questions: Do they try to make it as independents, or do they form a new league by adding some D1AA teams?

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Speaking to Greg Sankey prior to the Florida-Georgia game, I asked the SEC commish why the 12-team model for the College Football Playoff is preferable to eight and 16-team models that some prefer. “I think 12 gives us the right number for conference champions and for at-large teams,” he said, explaining that this model accommodates independents, Group of Five and at-large better than any other model and still keeps postseason play in for 30 other teams who would go to bowls.

Using the 12-team model, which gives an automatic bid to the six highest-ranked conference champions and accommodates six at-large teams, here is what the playoff would look like this morning using the Associated Press rankings as we await the first rankings by the playoff committee for this year’s four-team tournament:

Automatic bids: Georgia (SEC), Cincinnati (American), Oklahoma (Big 12), Michigan State (Big Ten), Oregon (Pac-12), Wake Forest (ACC)

At-large: Alabama (SEC), Ohio State (Big Ten), Notre Dame (Independent), Michigan (Big Ten), Oklahoma State (Big 12), Auburn (SEC)

First round byes: 1. Georgia; 2. Cincinnati; 3. Alabama; 4. Oklahoma

First round games: 12. Auburn at 5. Michigan State; 11. Oklahoma State at 6. Ohio State; 10. Wake Forest at 7. Oregon; 9. Michigan at 8. Notre Dame