Thoughts of the Day: November 5, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

WILL THIS BE A NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER?

Okay, so the Gators are 4-4 (2-4 SEC) and so there isn’t a team with a winning record on the schedule for November. The Gators need to go 4-0 starting Saturday night in Columbia against a South Carolina (4-4, 1-4 SEC) team that had to rally from behind to knock off Vanderbilt at home. Going 4-0 against South Carolina, Samford, Missouri and Florida State might not seem like much of an accomplishment, but considering the roller coaster ride it has been this year, an unbeaten November will be an accomplishment and it will help quiet the critics of which there are many.

The Gators are favored by 18 and it shouldn’t take long to figure out if they’re motivated or if they’ve taken the Gamecocks lightly. If the Gators show up at Williams-Brice Stadium motivated and ready to play a complete game on both sides of the football, the Gators probably win this one by four or more touchdowns. However, if they play uninspired and inconsistent, it’s probably going to be white knuckles.

Emory Jones gets the start at quarterback with Anthony Richardson probably unable to go due to concussion protocols. If the Emory Jones who looked so good against Tennessee shows up, then Florida is going to score a lot of points but he’s got to protect the football. That’s been a problem all year. Mistakes by Jones (nine interceptions) and Richardson (five interceptions, one fumble) have been turned into 69 points by opponents this year. Three of Florida’s losses are by one possession and in each of the three losses, turnovers were a leading factor.

The game plan for Florida will probably be ground and pound on offense because the Gamecocks struggle against the run (237.8 per game allowed in four SEC losses). The Gamecocks are tied for the SEC lead in interceptions (11) and they did get after Tennessee for six sacks.

South Carolina is going to have to throw the ball well to have any chance at all to beat the Gators. The Gamecocks average only 3.37 yards per rushing attempt and only 117 yards per game on the ground. They average 210.6 per game through the air and 7.2 per attempt. The Gamecocks have struggled to protect their quarterbacks against decent SEC teams so expect a lot of blitz packages from the Gators.

Florida is going to win this game. The only question is by how much? If it’s a motivated Florida team that believes the next four games have meaning, then it is a blowout. If not, it won’t be decided until the fourth quarter. The Sayer says sooth: Florida 42, South Carolina 14

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER

Missouri (4-4, 1-3 SEC) at No. 1 Georgia (8-0, 6-0 SEC): Starting linebacker Adam Anderson has been suspended from the team after being accused of raping a woman in Athens, but Kirby Smart could probably suspend his entire starting defense and still beat Missouri. Georgia is favored by 39 points because (a) the Bulldogs are really, really good and (b) Missouri, with the exception of running back Tyler Badie, is really, really bad. There is all sorts of speculation that Smart will start JT Daniels at quarterback rather than Stetson Bennett. He could start Oscar the Grouch and still beat Missouri. The over/under is 59.5 points. Figure Georgia will be responsible for 50 or so. The Sayer says sooth: Georgia 56, Missouri 7

LSU (4-4, 2-3 SEC) at No. 2 Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC): When LSU beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa back in 2019, Coach Oeaux had a few unkind things to say about Alabama that went viral in a hurry. As he will discover Saturday night, Nick Saban has a very long memory and paybacks are hell. LSU comes into the game seriously beaten up and minus some of its better players. Nick doesn’t care if LSU shows up at full strength or minus important players, he’s going to mete out some serious punishment. Alabama is favored to win this one by 28.5 points, probably the biggest spread in an Alabama-LSU game since Gerry DiNardo was the LSU coach. Alabama comes into the game averaging 45.9 points per game. It will be a surprise if the Tide doesn’t hit the 50 mark. For Bryce Young it’s a chance to put up some Heisman-worthy stats. For LSU, it’s going to be a big enough beatdown that boosters will pony up millions to see if AD Scott Woodward can lure Jimbo Fisher to leave Aggieland for the bayou. The Sayer says sooth: Alabama 54, LSU 10

No. 13 Auburn (6-2, 3-1 SEC) at No. 14 Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2 SEC): Besides being thought of as little brother in their home states, Auburn and Texas A&M share several things in common. Aggie coach Jimbo Fisher was once Little Terry Bowden’s offensive coordinator at Auburn. They’ve both played the No. 1 team in the country. Auburn got its doors blown off by Georgia, now No. 1 but No. 2 at the time. The Aggies beat Alabama, now No. 2 but No. 1 at the time. The Aggies beat Alabama at Kyle Field, which is where this game will be played Saturday afternoon and that’s one of the reasons they’re going to win. The other reason is the 1-2 running punch of Isaiah Spiller and Devon Arcane. Las Vegas gives the Aggies a 4.5-point edge with an over/under of 49.5 points. The Sayer says sooth: Texas A&M 31, Auburn 24

Liberty (7-2) at No. 16 Ole Miss (6-2, SEC): The NFL scouts will take up plenty of room in the press box at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium for The Prodigal Son Bowl. They’re not coming to this game to see former bad boys Hugh Freeze (Liberty) and Lane Kiffin (Ole Miss) match coaching wits. They’ll be in Oxford to see Malik Willis (Liberty) and Matt Corral (Ole Miss), who might be the first two quarterbacks taken in the NFL Draft. If Ole Miss were healthy, this would be a blowout win, but the Rebels have so many injuries to their receivers and on the O-line that Willis and Liberty have a puncher’s chance to score an upset. Wouldn’t that be something if Freeze came back to the place he used to coach to get a win over a ranked team? It probably doesn’t happen, but it’s possible. Ole Miss is favored by 9.5 points and the over/under is 67. The Sayer says sooth: Ole Miss 38, Liberty 35

No. 17 Mississippi State (5-3, 3-2 SEC) at Arkansas (5-3, 1-3 SEC): There is method to Mike Leach’s madness. Just because he doesn’t run the ball very much, people think the Air Raid offense is all about quick strikes. That’s hardly the case. Mississippi State controls the ball an average of 35 minutes per game by spreading the field and throwing these quick little darts to every eligible receiver. They’re playing defense with the offense and the defense isn’t bad, ranking third in the SEC. Arkansas relies on its running game (249 yards per game) but will be facing a Mississippi State defense that gives up only 89 yards on the ground. Arkansas is favored by 4.5 points, but this has a Mississippi State feel to it. The Sayer says sooth: Mississippi State 34, Arkansas 24

Tennessee (4-4, 2-3 SEC) at No. 18 Kentucky (6-2, 4-2, SEC): Three weeks ago when Kentucky was 6-0, Mark Stoops was trying to convince the world that this new version of the Kentucky Wildcats could handle the pressure of being unbeaten. Since then the Wildcats are 0-2 and worse yet, they’ve lost the mojo in their running game. UK has run for 117 yards combined in the last two. When they couldn’t run against Mississippi State last week, Will Levis completed three passes to the other team. To beat Tennessee, UK has to re-establish its running game and Levis has to throw the ball to people wearing blue shirts. The Wildcats also have to figure out how to stop Hendon Hooker, who has thrown for 17 TDPs with only two interceptions while running for 417 yards and four TDs. The Vols are a shaky 1-point favorite which is surprising considering they’ve given up 482 yards on the ground in their last two games, both of them losses. It’s all over if Kentucky figures out how to run the ball again. The Sayer says sooth: Kentucky 33, Tennessee 31

SIX GAMES TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEEKEND No. 9 Wake Forest (8-0) at North Carolina (4-4): The over/under for this one is 76.5 points. That seems way too low. This might come down to whoever has the football last. Sam Hartman (Wake Forest), not Sam Howell will be the best quarterback on the field but if North Carolina can run the football, an upset could be possible.

No. 3 Michigan State (8-0) at Purdue (5-3): You would think Michigan State should be favored by more than three points, but Purdue is a strange team. Capable one week of clobbering Iowa then stinking up the joint the next week against Wisconsin. If Kenneth Walker III gets it going on the ground, Purdue doesn’t stand a chance.

No. 19 North Carolina State (6-2) at Florida State (3-5): FSU hasn’t beaten a ranked team since 2016. It’s not going to happen this week. North Carolina State is only a 2.5-point favorite, but the Wolfpack have a really good defense and the Seminoles turn the ball over a lot.

Georgia Tech (3-5) at Miami (4-4): The Hurricanes have back-to-back wins over ranked teams, plus they’ve found their quarterback in Tyler Van Dyke. Georgia Tech struggles to put points on the scoreboard. Miami is a 10.5-point favorite. Manny Diaz is looking more and more like he’ll be the coach at The Ewe for another year at least.

No. 4 Oregon (7-1) at Washington (4-4): The Ducks have this habit of losing at least a couple of games every year to teams they should beat. Washington’s defense is the best in the Pac-12. The game will be played in cold rain. Can the Huskies spring the upset and kill the chances of any Pac-12 making the College Football Playoff?

Army (4-3) at Air Force (6-2): Army has attempted 51 passes this season. Air Force has thrown the ball 64 times. My over/under for this game is 13 … as in 13 pass attempts combined by the two teams. Air Force is a 2.5-point favorite.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Poor old Cincinnati. Have you listened to all the so-called experts whine that Cincinnati is the No. 6 team in the first College Football Playoff poll? Yes, the Bearcats are 8-0, but they’ve only beaten two teams with winning records – Notre Dame and UCF. Meanwhile, if Alabama (No. 2) loses a game, the Crimson Tide is out. No. 3 Michigan State still has to play Penn State and Ohio State. Ohio State has lost a game and still has to play Michigan State and Michigan. Oregon typically loses one late season game. Cincinnati, meanwhile, still has games with SMU (7-1) and probably Houston (7-1) in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game. If the Bearcats are 13-0 on Selection Sunday, there is every good chance they’ll make the playoff. If they lose, they’re out. So spare me the whining.