Thoughts of the Day: October 1, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

NOT THE KIND OF GAME THE GATORS CAN AFFORD TO FALL BEHIND When in doubt, do what you do best. That seems to be the mindset of Kentucky (4-0, 2-0 SEC) coach Mark Stoops. In Kentucky’s two non-conference wins, the Wildcats launched 68 passes, completing 45 for 673 yards and six touchdowns (three interceptions). That’s 9.89 yards per pass attempt, which is impressive.

In Kentucky’s two SEC wins (Missouri and South Carolina) the Wildcats have thrown a combined 40 passes, completed 25 for 281 yards and one touchdown (two interceptions). That’s 7.0 yards per attempt, a vast improvement over last season when the passing game produced 5.5 per attempt, but not exactly numbers that are going to scare the bejabbers out of SEC defensive coordinators.

What does scare SEC defensive coordinators is when Kentucky gets a lead and then does what it does best – grind out the yards in the running game behind that big offensive line and power back Chris Rodriguez, the SEC’s leading rusher with 552 yards. When the Wildcats get a rhythm going in the running game and the O-line starts feeling it, they control the football and make it difficult to get them off the field.

That’s why it is imperative for the 10th-ranked Florida Gators (3-1, 1-1 SEC) to get the early lead Saturday and force Kentucky out of its comfort zone. Kentucky is much better when its running game is going well so that when it throws, it’s off play action. By getting the lead, the Gators can take play action out of the equation and force UK to play from behind, something they haven’t had to do all year.

The key for Florida defensively will be to plug the holes between the tackles and get a good enough pass rush that QB Will Levis can’t get the ball downfield to speedy Wan’Dale Robinson. The Gators need a big game from Daquan Newkirk and Gervon Dexter in the middle of the D-line and for Zachary Carter to beat left tackle Dare Rosenthal off the edge with a measure of consistency. Kaiir Elam should draw the assignment on Robinson.

For the third straight week the Gators will be going against a defense that is giving up fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. The Gators pounded out 258 rushing yards on Alabama, more yards than the Crimson Tide has given up in its other three games combined. Last week, UF hammered out 283 rushing yards on Tennessee, which has allowed 173 in its other three games. It should be noted that Kentucky has yet to face a team with a running quarterback and Emory Jones is fifth in the SEC with 375 yards (6.58 per carry) and now-healthy Anthony Richardson is eighth with 275 (25 yards per carry).

Expect Kentucky to load up the box to try to stop Florida from running the ball. If the UF O-line gives Jones and Richardson time to throw against man coverage, this will be a big game for receivers Jacob Copeland, Xzavier Henderson and Justin Shorter.

It might be close. For a half. The Sayer says sooth: FLORIDA 31, Kentucky 20

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER No. 12 Ole Miss (3-0) at No. 1 Alabama (4-0, 2-0 SEC): Ole Miss is better than the team that put 647 yards and 48 points on Alabama last year. Alabama, while still very, very good, is not as good as the team that hung 63 on the Ole Miss defense a year ago. The Ole Miss defense was the worst in the country last year, but the Rebels are much improved. Yet, somehow, the people in Las Vegas who establish the betting lines, have Alabama as a 14.5-point favorite. Something about that just doesn’t seem right. Granted, Nick Saban has never lost to one of his former assistants, but Lane Kiffin isn’t just any former assistant. He’s the one assistant who seems to know how to push Nick’s buttons. If there is any former assistant capable of getting in Nick’s head, Kiffin is the one. Is that enough to compensate for some of the personnel disadvantages? Maybe. One thing for certain, Kiffin has the best QB in the nation in Matt Corral and he’s got two receivers in Dontario Drummond and Jonathan Mingo who are going to test the Alabama secondary. Conventional wisdom says for Ole Miss to win the game it will have to be by shootout so it would seem Alabama has an advantage because it can get more stops than Ole Miss. Stopping Bryce Young is the key to an Ole Miss upset but can the Rebels do it? Sayer says sooth: Alabama 42, Ole Miss 37

No. 8 Arkansas (4-0, 1-0 SEC) at No. 2 Georgia (4-0, 2-0 SEC): The Vegas oddsmakers have established Georgia as 18.5-point favorites so you can darn well expect former Georgia O-line coach and now Arkansas HBC Sam Pittman to play the disrespect card up until the moment the first foot hits the football. After all, Arkansas has already beaten two ranked teams including formerly No. 6 Texas A&M a week ago. Georgia, meanwhile, hasn’t played anyone. We can’t consider beating Clemson 10-3 a quality win because Clemson is absolutely horrible. If you go strictly by personnel and recruiting rankings, Georgia has an edge that covers the 18.5-point Vegas spread. But, games are played on the field where Georgia QB JT Daniels has a problem with a latissimus dorsi muscle injury that could limit the number of snaps he takes. If Daniels isn’t able to go, Georgia will rely on Stetson Bennett IV, who has played extensively in three easy wins. Whoever plays QB will be going against a defense that is allowing only 4.7 yards per pass ATTEMPT. Ask Steve Sarkisian or Jimbo Fisher about a Barry Odom coached defense. Georgia’s defense is tops in the country, but the best offense it has stopped is UAB, which ranks 80th, so this will be the first real test of the season. Georgia is a heavy favorite but this just has a white knuckles feel to it. The Sayer says sooth: Georgia 21, Arkansas 17

Mississippi State (2-2, 0-1 SEC) at No. 15 Texas A&M (3-1, 0-1 SEC): The Aggies were exposed as pretenders, not contenders last week largely because their offensive line can’t block anyone. If the Aggies can give Zach Calzada some protection, he probably can put up some big numbers against Mississippi State, which ranks dead last in the SEC in pass defense. MSU is pretty good against the run (only 71.25 yards per game allowed) so Jimbo probably goes with a chuck and duck game plan. The real question for the Aggies will be can they keep the ball in front of their safeties because Mississippi State doesn’t even pretend to run the ball. This is the Air Raid and Mike Leach will have the Bulldogs throwing from the moment they get off the bus at Kyle Field. It’s probably going to be mostly dink and dunk, but if Mississippi State can move the chains and keep the A&M offense off the field, they’ll have a chance to win the football game. The Aggies are a 7-point favorite, which means on a neutral field the people in Vegas think this game would be dead even. The advantage goes to the Aggies, but only because it’s at Kyle Field. The Sayer says sooth: Texas A&M 24, Mississippi State 21

No. 22 Auburn (3-1) at LSU (3-1, 1-0 SEC): If you saw Auburn struggle to beat Georgia State last week, then you’re well aware just how bad Bo Nix looked and how much better Auburn looked once TJ Finley was sent into the game. So, with Auburn heading to Baton Rouge to face LSU, the question of the day is will Bryan Harsin stick with Nix or will he go with Finley, who started six games for LSU last year? If he goes with Nix, consider that advantage LSU. Since his freshman year when he quarterbacked upsets over Oregon and Alabama, Nix has had more average to bad games than good ones, but he’s an Auburn legacy and he does have plenty of starting experience. Finley played in some big games last year, but that’s not the same as starting a game at LSU as an opponent when your hometown is an hour away in Ponchatoula. LSU can’t run the ball and its offensive line is shaky, at best. LSU can get after the passer (18 sacks in four games) and that will be one of two keys Saturday night. The other key is can the LSU offensive line give Max Johnson time to find Kayshon Boutte downfield? The two have connected for 12 touchdowns in the six games Johnson has started at quarterback dating back to last season. Auburn is the ranked team but LSU is the 3-point favorite. The Sayer says sooth: LSU 30, Auburn 24

Tennessee (2-2, 0-1 SEC) at Missouri (2-2, 0-2 SEC): There is every good chance Josh Heupel will start Joe Milton III at quarterback even if Hendon Hooker is healthy enough to go. Hooker has played better than Milton since taking over when Milton went down with an injury in game two against Pitt. Yet, for some reason, Heupel seems enamored with Milton, who is completing 46.5 percent of his passes as opposed to Hooker’s 65.7 percent. Now, the Vols could win in spite of Milton if Heupel elects to limit the number of pass plays he calls. That’s because Missouri is absolutely clueless against the run (worst in the SEC, next to last nationally). Missouri has to throw it to win so the Tigers’ hopes rest on the right arm of QB Connor Bazelac, who has 10 TDPs and is averaging 300 passing yards per game. Missouri has to get an early lead and force the Vols to throw the ball to play catch up. If Mizzou allows the Vols to gash with the run it will be a lengthy day. The Sayer says sooth: Missouri 27, Tennessee 21

Troy (2-2) at South Carolina (2-2, 0-2 SEC): This could very well be the last chance South Carolina has to win a game this year. The Gamecocks aren’t very good but neither is Troy so this one is a real tossup. For the Gamecocks to get a win, they have to run the football, something they haven’t done very well all season (126.75 yards per game, 3.47 per carry), and keep Troy from heating up in the passing game since the Trojans, just like South Carolina, really can’t run the football. This has the makings of a snoozer at Willy Brice. Gamecock fans should savor the win if they get it because they may have to wait until 2022 to experience another one. The Sayer says sooth: South Carolina 20, Troy 14

UConn (0-5) at Vanderbilt (1-3, 0-1 SEC): This is the worst game in the entire country. Maybe they should agree that the first team that scores a touchdown is declared the winner. As bad as Vanderbilt’s offense is – ranked 123rd nationally and 129th in scoring – UConn’s is worse. UConn is the 129th-ranked offense in the country and a mere 126th in scoring. Tickets shouldn’t be a problem for the easily bored. Vandy will count the number of tickets sold in the final attendance figure but you can bet the ranch fewer than 10,000 people will actually be in the stadium. The Sayer says sooth: Vanderbilt 14, UConn 3

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Miami dropped to 2-3 on the year Thursday night, losing to Virginia, 30-28, when Andreas Borregales boinked a 33-yard field goal attempt off the left upright on the last play of the game. In their preseason rankings, both Athlon and Lindy’s had Miami at No. 14 while Phil Steele had the Hurricanes at No. 17. Not only is Miami NOT a top 20 team but the Hurricanes might be favored to win only two games the rest of the way – at Florida State on November 13 and at Duke November 27. South Florida talk radio will be inundated with calls to fire Manny Diaz and hire Mario Cristobal. Just two teensy problems with that line of thought: (1) Miami can’t afford to buy out Manny and (2) doesn’t have enough money or decent enough facilities to convince Cristobal to leave Oregon.