Thoughts of the Day: October 15, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning: BEWARE OF TRAINWRECKS By any stretch of the imagination, LSU (3-3, 1-2 SEC) is a trainwreck this year. Starting with the season-ending injury to Myles Brennan back in August, it has been one debilitating injury after another to the point the Tigers will be missing at least five starting defenders Saturday when 20th-ranked Florida (4-2, 2-2 SEC). Injuries, are just the tip of the proverbial iceberg for LSU, however. There is a serious problem with coaching because for the second straight year, HBC Ed Orgeron has made some bad decisions when it comes to assistant coach/coordinator hires. And then there are those teensy matters of Title IX and the NCAA.

Add it all together and you’ve got a full-fledged trainwreck in Baton Rouge where it seems buzzards are circling the LSU football compound in anticipation of Coach Oeaux losing his job. It’s so bad that some are speculating that if Florida blows the doors off LSU this weekend that athletic director Scott Woodward could pull the plug on his $9 million a year head football coach. Whether it’s this week or a few weeks later on, it does seem that inevitable that Coach Oeaux will be forced to squeeze by on the $21 million it would cost LSU to buy out his contract if fired prior to December 31.

So a question to ponder is whether the Tigers are willing to rally around their embattled coach or have they already given up on this season? With two losses in SEC play, it will take a miracle of parting the Red Sea proportions for the Tigers to win the Western Division even if LSU goes on to win the remaining games on the schedule. Add those grim prospects with the fact the players read social media, message boards and newspapers. They know Coach Oeaux is most likely a goner. Do they think they can save his job by playing unconscious the rest of the way and winning games they have no business winning? Or do they start thinking maybe it’s a good time to put out some feelers to find out if there are some potentially good landing spots if they put their names in the transfer portal? Ten years ago, that wouldn’t have been a question to ask, but in this changing world it’s every man for himself.

For Florida, it’s a question of coming to play from the moment foot hits football. There is no way for the Gators to know what to expect from LSU. Even though the Tigers are a trainwreck, they’re dangerous because there is no way to know what to expect. They could play as fired up and determined as any team the Gators will face all year or they could play like rats abandoning a sinking ship. Either way, the Gators need to be prepared to play their best and most consistent game of the season. In spurts the Gators have played as well as any team in the SEC but they have yet to play a complete game for four quarters

The Gators can’t go into this game thinking they can flip on the switches to go from a lackadaisical beginning to a dominant finish. That won’t work Saturday. If UF comes out ready to play then the running game will dominate just as Kentucky dominated the Tigers last week on the ground. Since LSU is missing three key members of its secondary and it’s best edge rusher, Emory Jones should have a big day throwing the football. LSU has no one capable of handling Jacob Copeland deep and the middle of the field should be open all day long for Trent Whittemore. The defensive game plan should center around constant pressure from Zachary Cater and Brenton Cox Jr. on LSU QB Max Johnson. He can’t complete passes from his back.

This is a very winnable game for the Gators if they come to play from the very start. The Sayer says sooth: FLORIDA 35, LSU 14

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER No. 11 Kentucky (6-0, 4-0 SEC) at No. 1 Georgia (6-0, 4-0 SEC): Everything about the way Georgia has played points to a blowout win. Vegas agrees because it favors the Bulldogs to win by 21.5 points. Kentucky is the best defensive team Georgia has faced since Clemson in the season opener but even if the Wildcats play a great game, can they score enough points to score an upset of the nation’s No. 1 team? The only way they can do it is to (a) give QB Will Levis enough time to throw the ball to Wan’Dale Robinson, easily the best wide receiver Georgia’s secondary has had to cover this year; and (b) for Levis to make enough plays with his feet to prevent big losses. Easier said than done. In Lexington, you might be tempted to give UK a puncher’s chance. In Athens, it doesn’t seem feasible even with DB Tykee Smith done for the season after tearing his ACL in practice Thursday. The Sayer says sooth: Georgia 28, Kentucky 7

No. 5 Alabama (5-1, 2-1 SEC) at Mississippi State (3-2, 1-1 SEC): Probably the worst possible thing that could have happened to Mississippi State was for Alabama to lose to Texas A&M last week. You can bet the mortgage on Grandma’s house that Nick Saban has mentioned the fact that Mississippi State beat the Aggies in College Station at least 5,000 times during the past week. Alabama won’t take the Bulldogs lightly, which is bad news for the folks in Starkville. When Nick is unhappy, Alabama plays angry, and when Bama plays angry, bad things happen to the team the Crimson Tide is playing. Alabama is a 17-point favorite and that just doesn’t seem like enough points. The Sayer says sooth: Alabama 38, Mississippi State 14

No. 13 Ole Miss (4-1, 1-1 SEC) at Tennessee (4-2, 2-1 SEC): What a joke. The over/under on this one is 83 points. They might score that many in the first half. Not much defense will be played Saturday at Neyland. Lane Kiffin was once the UT head coach and his offensive coordinator was UT head coach Josh Heupel’s offensive coordinator at UCF for two years so there is a good bit of familiarity with these guys. Doesn’t matter. Even if the other defense knows what’s coming – and they probably will – they’ll have problems stopping the other. Ole Miss is a very shaky 2.5-point favorite. The Sayer says sooth: Ole Miss 54, Tennessee 53

Auburn (4-2, 1-1 SEC) at No. 17 Arkansas (4-2, 1-2 SEC): Arkansas hasn’t forgotten that rotten work by both the SEC zebras and replay booth handed Auburn a win last year. That loss is all the motivation the Hogs need to right the ship after consecutive SEC losses the last two weekends. Auburn will start Bo Nix once again. If good Bo Nix shows, the Tigers will be in the hunt until the end. If Bo’s evil twin Skippy Nix shows, Arkansas and KJ Jefferson are going to exact their revenge. Arkansas is favored by 4.5 points. The Sayer says sooth: Arkansas 38, Auburn 30

No. 21 Texas A&M (4-2, 1-2 SEC) at Missouri (3-3, 0-2 SEC): It doesn’t take a brain scientist or a rocket surgeon to know what Texas A&M is going to do Saturday at Mizzou. Jimbo Fisher is going to line the Aggies up and pound it between the tackles. This is the kind of game that Isaiah Spiller could run for 200 yards. Mizzou has the worst run defense on the planet (288.33 yards per game, a whopping 6.09 yards per carry). The Aggies are 8.5-point favorites. It feels like the spread should be much worse. The Sayer says sooth: Texas A&M 35, Missouri 17

Vanderbilt (2-4, 0-2 SEC) at South Carolina (3-3, 0-3 SEC): The loser of this one probably avoids the cellar in the SEC East. Neither team is very good, but compared the Vanderbilt, the Gamecocks look like a playoff challenger, which is why Vegas makes them 18-point favorites. Vanderbilt has yet to score in an SEC game. There is every good chance the Commodores will put points on the board this week but even if they get a field goal or a touchdown it’s not going to be enough. The folks at Willy Brice will have a first SEC win to celebrate. The Sayer says sooth: South Carolina 24, Vanderbilt 7

SEVEN GAMES TO KEEP AN EYE ON SATURDAY No. 12 Oklahoma State (5-0) at No. 25 Texas (4-2): The Cowboys find out if they are contenders or pretenders. Texas will find out if the second half against Oklahoma is the norm or an aberration. Texas is a 4-point fave which means Vegas is leaning toward the Longhorns still feeling shaky.

TCU (3-2) at No. 4 Oklahoma (6-0): Does Lincoln Riley give Spencer Rattler a second chance or go with his hot hand, Caleb Williams? It probably doesn’t matter who starts at quarterback for the Sooners, who are 13.5-point favorites, but if it isn’t Rattler, the transfer portal could be very, very interesting next week.

Army (4-1) at Wisconsin (2-3): Wisconsin leads the nation in run defense while Army leads the nation in rushing. That is one reason why this one is interesting. Another reason is because if Wisconsin loses this game, the natives are going to be quite restless. Paul Chryst is 6-6 since last season and he’s lost 15 games in the last four seasons. Wisconsin is a 14-point favorite but this one has a white knuckles feel to it.

Miami (2-3) at North Carolina (3-3): Miami really can’t afford to fire Manny Diaz but if the Canes manage to get blown out by UNC, there will be bake sales and car washes all over South Florida to put the money together to buy him out. North Carolina might be a bigger disappointment than Miami, but they aren’t going to fire Mack Brown. Carolina is a 7.5-point favorite which feels about right.

Clemson (3-2) at Syracuse (3-3): The only reason this one is relevant is because you have to go all the way back to 2014 to find the last time Clemson lost three games in the regular season. Clemson is a 13.5-point favorite but this is in the Carrier Dome where weird things are the norm and not the exception.

Pittsburgh (4-1) at Virginia Tech (3-2): Pitt thinks it should be ranked and probably makes its way into the top 25 with a win. Virginia Tech thinks it should be unbeaten but if the Hokies figure out a way to lose to Pitt at home, the alums might be calling for Justin Fuente’s head on a pike at the entrance to Lane Stadium. Pitt is a 5-point favorite.

Yale (2-2) at UConn (0-7): Having lost their only other chance to score a win in 2021, UConn takes on Yale from the Ivy League. If the Yalies have any pride whatsoever, they’ll figure out a way to avoid having to tell their grandchildren 30 years from now that they lost to UConn.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: If you watch enough college football this weekend you’re sure to see some player ejected for targeting. I understand the intent of the rule, but is ejection the right way to deal with helmet-to-helmet or defenseless-player contact unless it’s blatantly obvious that there was intent to harm? I’m all for making the game safer, but I’ve seen too many ejections when it’s obvious there was no intent to cause harm. Maybe a better idea would be a 15-yard penalty for any targeting in which there is no intent to harm and a warning that if there is a second targeting call against a player within the next two games, then the perp has to sit an entire game. Maybe that’s not the solution but the current rule is punishing players who clearly didn’t intend to cause harm.