No. 1 expectations, SEC crossroads and the playoff picture

A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:

Forget about that exhibition game loss to Baylor. It didn’t count nor should it temper anyone’s expectations for the Florida Gators, now the consensus No. 1 preseason team after the Associated Press and Coaches polls were released on Monday. The Southeastern Conference placed seven teams in the top 25 in both polls followed by the Big 12 with six and the Big Ten with five. The ACC, once considered the best league in all of college basketball, had four. The only team from a non-power conference is Gonzaga.

Florida will play one more exhibition game (next Tuesday against Stetson) before opening the regular season in Tampa with No. 14 Miami.

Associated Press Preseason top 25

1. FLORIDA

2. Duke

3. Illinois

4. UConn

5. Arizona

6. Michigan State

7. Texas

8. Tennessee

9. Virginia

10. Houston

11. Louisville

12. Arkansas

13. St. John’s

14. Miami

15. Gonzaga

16. Michigan

17. Kansas

18. Iowa State

19. Texas Tech

20. Alabama

21. Southern California

22. UCLA

23. Kentucky

24. Vanderbilt

25. BYU

Coaches Preseason Top 25

1. FLORIDA

2. Duke

3. Illinois

4. Arizona

5. UConn

6. Michigan State

7. Texas

8. Houston

9. Tennessee

10. Virginia

11. Louisville

12. Gonzaga

13. Arkansas

14. (TIE) St. John’s and Iowa State

16. Texas Tech

17. Miami

18. (TIE) Kansas and Alabama

20. Michigan

21. Vanderbilt

22. Southern California

23. Kentucky

24. Purdue

25. BYU

COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS

Associated Press top 25

1. Miami 6-0

2. BYU 6-0

3. Ohio State 6-1

4. Notre Dame 6-1

5. Georgia 6-1

6. Indiana 6-1

7. Ole Miss 5-1

8. Texas Tech 6-0

9. UCLA 6-0

10. Utah 6-0

11. Tennessee 6-1

12. Kentucky 6-1

13. Alabama 5-2

14. Houston 6-1

15. Iowa 5-1

16. Southern Cal 6-1

17. Wake Forest 6-1

18. LSU 5-2

19. Texas 4-2

20. FLORIDA 5-2

21. Boise State 5-1

22. Missouri 5-2

23. SMU 5-1

24. Northwestern 5-1

25. Arizona 5-1

AFCA Coaches top 25

1. Miami 6-0

2. Ohio State 6-1

3. BYU 6-0

4. Georgia 6-1

5. Texas Tech 6-0

7. Ole Miss 5-1

8. Notre Dame 6-1

9. Utah 6-0

10. UCLA 6-0

11. Tennessee 6-1

12. Kentucky 6-1

13. Alabama 5-2

14. Iowa 5-2

15. Southern Cal 6-1

16, Houston 6-1

17. LSU 5-2

18. Texas 4-2

19. Wake Forest 6-1

20. SMU 5-1

21. Missouri 5-2

22. Boise State 5-1

23. Northwestern 5-1

24. FLORIDA 5-2

25. Oregon 4-2

WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR EACH SEC TEAM

No. 13 Alabama (5-2, 3-2 SEC)

The only game against a ranked team remaining on the schedule is November 7 at LSU, a game that is all but certain to be played at night at Tiger Stadium. That will be an elimination game for the College Football Playoff since both teams already have two SEC losses. If could also be an elimination game for Kalen DeBoer, who already has 10 losses in less than three years on the job. The Tide faithful aren’t happy campers these days.

Saturday: Texas A&M (4-3, 1-3 SEC), 3:30 p.m., ABC

Arkansas (3-4, 1-3 SEC)

The Hogs are assured they won’t go winless in the SEC thanks to their win over Vanderbilt. They will be double digit underdogs in the remaining five games. To finish the season 4-8 would be considered an accomplishment.

Auburn (4-2, 2-2 SEC)

The win at Georgia has revived hope among the faithful. Of the six games still on the schedule there is a three-game stretch of Arkansas, (at) Mississippi State and Samford. Win those three and Auburn has its first winning season in six years. Getting another win among LSU, (at) Ole Miss and (at) Alabama would be a bonus.

Saturday: No. 18 LSU (5-2, 2-2 SEC), 12 noon, ABC

No. 20 FLORIDA (5-2, 3-2 SEC)

From dire straits back to optimism. Amazing what the win over Texas has done to change perspectives about the last five games for the Gators. Suddenly, Georgia looks beatable and everybody thinks the Kentucky bubble is going to burst. Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and (at) Florida State look like wins. Eight would be doubling up on last year. Nine? It would mean winning either the Georgia or Kentucky game? If everybody gets healthy and the defense plays like it did at Texas the Gators could make it a November to Remember.

No. 5 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC)

Despite the loss to Auburn, Georgia is still viewed by many of the national experts to have the team most capable of winning the national championship. The next three games will tell a lot about the Bulldogs – Florida in Atlanta, (at) Ole Miss and Missouri.

No. 12 Kentucky (6-1, 4-1 SEC)

The euphoria will continue this weekend with Vanderbilt coming to Lexington, after that we find out if the Wildcats are contenders or pretenders. The last four games are (at) Tennessee, Florida, (at) Missouri and Louisville.

Saturday: Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4 SEC), 7:30 p.m., SEC Network

No. 18 LSU (5-2, 2-2 SEC)

There is no wiggle room for Lane Kiffin and the Tigers. One more loss and they probably won’t make the College Football Playoff. After Auburn on Saturday, the next three games are brutal – Alabama, Texas and (at) Tennessee.

Saturday: at Auburn (4-2, 2-2 SEC), 12 noon, ABC

Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2 SEC)

The Bulldogs need two wins to become bowl eligible. Vanderbilt and Tennessee Tech are on the schedule, so that should get the bowl game, leaving one win among Oklahoma, (at) Texas, Auburn and (at) Ole Miss to assure a winning season. Getting to seven wins and beyond will be determined by the health of QB Kamario Taylor.

Saturday: Oklahoma (3-3, 1-2 SEC), 3:30 p.m., SEC Network

No. 22 Missouri (5-2, 2-2 SEC)

Which is the real Missouri? The one that clocked Florida and the Aggies on consecutive weekends or the one that was road kill at Oxford? The only surefire win of the last five games is Arkansas in two weeks. After that the last four games are Texas, (at) Georgia, Kentucky and Oklahoma. It will take Mizzou running the table to make the CFP.

Oklahoma (3-3, 1-2 SEC)

Oklahoma has to go 6-0 the rest of the way to make the College Football Playoff and that’s not going to happen with turnover machine John Mateer at quarterback. There are at least a couple more losses on a schedule that includes (at) Florida, Ole Miss and (at) Missouri.

Saturday: at Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2 SEC), 3:30 p.m., SEC Network

No. 7 Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1 SEC)

Start with Saturday at Texas and the schedule only gets tougher before easing up with D1AA Wofford. Auburn and Georgia are home games then there is a roadie with Oklahoma in November when the weather could be a factor. A 10-2 record will get the Rebels into the playoff.

Saturday: at No. 19 Texas (4-2, 1-2 SEC), 7:30 p.m., ABC

South Carolina (3-3, 1-3 SEC)

The Gamecocks are fighting for Shane Beamer’s job and they’ll need four wins to assure he isn’t canned. Of the six remaining games, Tennessee and Georgia are the toughest but both are played at Willy Brice where the Chickens are very good. An 8-4 season would be outstanding but 7-5 seems more reasonable.

Saturday: No. 11 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC), 3:30 p.m., ESPN

No. 11 Tennessee (6-1, 3-1 SEC)

The way the defense manhandled Alabama has flipped the narrative for the Vols. With five games to go they can absorb one loss and probably make the CFP. South Carolina won’t be easy but there are home games with Kentucky and LSU. Right now 11-1 or 10-2 seems likely.

Saturday: at South Carolina (3-3, 1-3 SEC), 3:30 p.m., ESPN

No. 19 Texas (4-2, 1-2 SEC)

Can Steve Sarkisian survive if the Longhorns lose another game and fall out of the playoff picture? Ole Miss comes to town Saturday and there are still road trips to LSU and Missouri. Complicating matters, Arch Manning is splitting reps as the first team QB. That is confirmed.

Saturday: No. 7 Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1 SEC), 7:30 p.m., ABC

Texas A&M (4-3, 1-3 SEC)

Season in the Tank. That would be a good title if someone wanted to write a book about this year’s Texas A&M team. Right now getting to six wins and bowl eligible will be an accomplishment for a team that was preseason top 10.

Saturday: at No. 13 Alabama 5-2, 3-2 SEC), 3:30 p.m., ABC

Vanderbilt (3-4, 0-4 SEC)

There are five games left and Vandy will be serious underdogs in every one of them. For long time SEC fans, that means there is something right in the universe because Vandy is back in the SEC cellar.

Saturday: at No. 12 Kentucky (6-1, 4-1 SEC), 7:30 p.m., SEC Network

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT

Could the Big 12 be the big winner when the College Football Playoff committee fills out the brackets in December? Right now the Big 12 has three unbeatens in No. 2 BYU (6-0), No. 8 Texas Tech (6-0) and No. 10 Utah (6-0) plus two one-loss teams in No. 14 Houston (6-1) and No. 25 Arizona (5-1).

BYU has to play Utah on November 7, its only game against a ranked team on the remaining schedule. Texas Tech’s only game with a ranked team is Arizona October 31. Utah plays Houston Saturday and Arizona November 14. Other than Utah, Houston doesn’t have a game against a ranked team.

Prediction: BYU, Texas Tech and either Utah or Houston get in the playoff.

In the ACC, No. 1 Miami (6-0) travels to Notre Dame (5-1) on November 7. Win or lose that one and the Hurricanes are still in the CFP field as long as they win the ACC championship game.

No. 9 UCLA (6-0) is the only unbeaten team in the Big Ten. The schedule is quite favorable to making the Big Ten championship game with (at) Michigan and No. 16 Southern Cal (6-1) standing in the way. No. 3 Ohio State (6-1) will be without QB Julian Sayin for weeks but the schedule isn’t that difficult with only Southern Cal and No. 25 Northwestern (5-1) ranked among the last five games. No. 6 Indiana (6-1) has to play at Michigan and Southern Cal. With Ohio State and Indiana back-to-back and a season ender with UCLA, Southern Cal has the toughest path to the playoff.

Prediction: UCLA, Ohio State and Indiana get in.

During his four years in Gainesville, his nickname was Sun Belt Billy. Now that he’s back in the Sun Belt where he won 40 games in four years at Louisiana, Billy Napier is unbeaten (7-0) at James Madison where he actually could make the College Football Playoff. The Dukes, who will be leaving the Sun Belt for the American Conference in 2028, are the only unbeaten team remaining in the Group of Six and just one of six unbeatens in the entire country. They have outscored opponents 300-112 and the only team with a winning record on the remaining schedule is Appalachian State, who they play Thursday night.

Standing in the way of James Madison getting the CFP spot reserved for the highest ranking conference champ among the Group of Six is No. 21 Boise State (5-1), which will be favored to run the table the rest of the way.

Prediction: Boise State will be the Group of Six rep.

As for the SEC, I’m going with Georgia, Tennessee and Ole Miss, all of them with two losses so the playoff field is SEC (3), Big Ten (3), Big 12 (3), Notre Dame, Miami and Boise State.