Thoughts of the Day: October 22, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

ANY IDEAS WHAT DAN MULLEN CAME UP WITH FOR GEORGIA DURING THE BYE WEEK? While pondering what sort of game plan Dan Mullen could come up with that could catch No. 1 Georgia off guard next weekend in Jacksonville, I thought back to Florida’s 38-20 ambush of then No. 9 Georgia in 2014. Georgia came into that game 6-1 and on a 5-game winning streak while the Gators were 3-3, having lost two in a row, the second a 42-13 waxing at the hands of Missouri.

The situation looked grim for UF because Jeff Driskel was having a dreadful game throwing the ball (7-19 for 50 yards and two picks against Mizzou) and UF was going to turn things over to freshman Treon Harris, who came into the Georgia game having thrown all of 18 passes all year. Complicating matters was UF hadn’t run the ball well since opening wins over Eastern Michigan and a bad Kentucky team. Georgia, meanwhile, was giving up only 105 rushing yards per game and was among the national leaders in interceptions.

What Georgia didn’t expect was for the Gators to go retro Dickey years, which is to say line up, run the ball and throw only when necessary. Harris threw only six passes the entire game, completing three for 27 yards. The rest of the time, the Gators just lineup and ran the ball. Florida threw only one second half pass, a 2-yard screen from Harris to Brandon Powell. Kelvin Taylor ran for 197 yards and two touchdowns and Matt Jones ran for 192 and two more.

Nobody expected Florida to win much less run the ball on that Georgia defense. The Gators had a simple game plan and stuck with it, finishing the day with 418 rushing yards, to give Will Muschamp the only win he got over Georgia in four years as the UF coach.

Nobody expects Florida to beat Georgia in Jacksonville next week. In fact, nobody is giving the Gators a chance. Nobody gave UF a chance in 2014 either.

Just saying.

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER

Tennessee (4-2, 2-2 SEC) at No. 4 Alabama (6-1, 3-1 SEC): The worst possible thing that could have happened to the rest of the Southeastern Conference was Texas A&M beating Alabama in College Station a couple of weeks ago. All that did was make Nick Saban mad and when Nick gets mad, his assistant coaches become unbearable and the team then takes out their collective frustrations on whoever Alabama plays next. In this case it was Mississippi State, whose offensive line did a dandy imitation of a sieve and gave up seven sacks. MSU also turned the ball over four times. Seven sacks and four turnovers equals a 40-point poleaxing. That was in Starkville. Alabama gets Tennessee in Tuscaloosa Saturday night and you can bet the farm that Nick hasn’t eased up on his team one iota. If anything, beating Mississippi State by 40 will only make Nick push harder to make an even bigger statement against the Vols. Meanwhile, Tennessee arrives in Tuscaloosa after (a) having lost to Ole Miss and (b) embarrassed that it has the most classless fans in all of college football. The Vols also arrive not knowing if Hendon Hooker will be able to answer the bell at quarterback. Hooker can’t beat Alabama but he at least gives the Vols a better chance to score some points than Joe Milton III. If Milton starts and Hooker can’t go, then this will be far worse than the 25 points that Vegas favors Alabama. The Sayer says sooth: Alabama 49, Tennessee 14

LSU (4-3, 2-2 SEC) at No. 12 Ole Miss (5-1, 2-1 SEC): Right now, the question of the day involves Ole Miss QB Matt Corral. He took a severe beating in last week’s win over Tennessee and as of Thursday night, his status for LSU was unknown. Corral is a gamer and it might take needing 200 stitches because of a chainsaw injury for him to miss this game, but in the event he can play don’t be surprised if Lane Kiffin starts John Rhys Plumlee. Plumlee will never be confused for Corral when it comes to throwing the football, but there are few who can run like he can. In case you forgot, two years ago in the 2019 BK (Before Kiffin), Plumlee ran for 1,023 yards and 12 touchdowns. He was an adequate but not great passer, but if he comes in to play QB Saturday against LSU, it won’t be to chunk it down the field but to run. Is there any way LSU could be adequately prepared for an offense that picks up big plays downfield in the passing game and a run-first option offense? And then there is the matter of Tyrion Price-Davis, the LSU running back who gashed Florida for 287 yards last week. Is there any way the Ole Miss defense, which is giving up nearly 200 yards per game on the ground, can be prepared for that counter trap play that makes Price-Davis so effective? Las Vegas must think Corral is going to be healthy enough to play and be effective because Ole Miss is favored by nine. The Sayer says sooth: Ole Miss 42, LSU 35

South Carolina (4-3, 1-3 SEC) at No. 17 Texas A&M (5-2, 2-2 SEC): In three SEC losses, South Carolina has allowed an average of 223 rushing yards per game. The Gamecocks better brace themselves because Saturday night at Kyle Field they can expect Texas A&M to try to line up and knock them off the football from the time the game begins until it ends. Isaiah Spiller and Devon Arcane will probably get 20 carries apiece as Jimbo Fisher continues to play it safe with quarterback Zach Calzada, who may not throw more than 20 passes. South Carolina, meanwhile, will start former graduate assistant and North Dakota State transfer Zeb Noland, who is 2-0 as a starter and 1-0 in relief. It’s understandable why Shane Beamer went with Luke Doty most of the year because Noland will use up his eligibility, but the Gamecocks are a better offensive team with Noland, who is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt and has six TDPs against only a single interception. The Aggies are favored to win by 18.5 points. The Sayer says sooth: Texas A&M 35, South Carolina 7

Mississippi State (3-3, 1-2 SEC) at Vanderbilt (2-5, 0-3 SEC): Mike Leach will find out a lot about the Bulldogs Saturday afternoon in Nashville. The Bulldogs were waylaid by 40 points by Alabama last week, the kind of serious beatdown that can linger with a team long after. Leach will find out how resilient the Bulldogs are against Vanderbilt, which snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in the last minute of the game last week at South Carolina. The Bulldogs need three more wins to be bowl eligible and this is the easiest of the six remaining games so they can’t afford a slip-up. Ken Seals was injured last week so the Commodores are going to start Mike Wright at quarterback. He’s not the passing threat that Seals is, but he is more mobile and adds a running dimension to the Vanderbilt attack. Will that be enough to give Vanderbilt enough of an edge to get their first SEC win since beating Missouri in 2019? Las Vegas likes Mississippi State by 20.5 points. The Sayer says sooth: Mississippi State 38, Vanderbilt 14

Arkansas-Pine Bluff (1-5) at Arkansas (4-3, 1-3 SEC): After three weeks of seeing his defense brutalized by Georgia, Ole Miss and Auburn, Sam Pittman has to be ecstatic at a game where he can (a) get a win and (b) rest up some of his banged up troops before the final four games. The Razorbacks will need every healthy body they can because after this win – it’s not going to be close – Arkansas will be one game away from bowl-eligible. That in itself is a small miracle. Who would have thought Arkansas could be going to a bowl game within two years after the Chad Morris debacle? The Sayer says sooth: Arkansas 55, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7

SEVEN OTHER GAMES TO FOLLOW CLOSELY THIS WEEKEND Wisconsin (3-3) at No. 25 Purdue (4-2): Thanks to their win over Iowa last week, Purdue owns the tiebreaker in the Big Ten West. Avoiding the letdown against Wisconsin, which turns the ball over at an alarming rate, is critical. Wisconsin is favored by 3.5 points on the road, which means Vegas is counting on a letdown.

No. 8 Oklahoma State (6-0) at Iowa State (4-2): Wasn’t it just yesterday that everyone had Iowa State penciled in as a College Football Playoff contender and Oklahoma State finish middle of the pack in the Big 12? Iowa State is out of the playoff picture but not out of Big 12 championship contention. The Cyclones are favored to win by seven but they’ll lose if they can’t contain Jaylen Warren, one of the best backs you’ve never heard of.

No. 10 Oregon (5-1) at UCLA (5-2): For Oregon to win this game and hold onto the remote hope that it can somehow make the College Football Playoff, the Ducks are going to have to run the ball against a UCLA front that ranks ninth nationally in rush defense. UCLA is a 1-point favorite and with a win becomes bowl-eligible for the first time in Chip Kelly’s four years on the job.

No. 22 San Diego State (6-0) at Air Force (6-1): The Aztecs lead the nation in rush defense (60.83 yards per game). Saturday they go against Air Force, which leads the nation in rushing at 336.43 yards per game. The old irresistible force meets the old immovable object trick, the oldest one in the book. Air Force is favored by three to end San Diego State’s dreams of an unbeaten season.

No. 18 North Carolina State (5-1) at Miami (2-4): The Hurricanes aren’t very good and North Carolina State thinks its better than No. 18 nationally. If Devin Leary (15 TDPs) doesn’t eat up the Hurricanes then Zonovan Knight (503 rushing yards) will. North Carolina State is a 3.5-point favorite. It feels like that’s not enough.

UMass (1-5) at Florida State (2-4): UMass puts its 1-game winning streak on the line against the Seminoles, who have won two in a row. FSU is favored by 35.5 points which means Seminole fans will be claiming the dynasty will be back sooner and not later.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Jeremy Pruitt’s scorched earth threat against Tennessee remains a hot topic up in Knoxville. Pruitt demanding $12 million or he will air all of the dirty laundry in the entire UT athletic department is nothing more than extortion and it puts Tennessee in a box. If the Vols pay Pruitt anything it’s an admission that they’re guilty as sin which means the NCAA will move in and do a scorched earth of its own. If the Vols don’t pay anything and Pruitt actually has legitimate evidence that the entire UT athletic department is corrupt, then Tennessee loses again. No matter what happens here, Tennessee is going to recover. As for Pruitt, he’s nothing more than a roach who should have stayed hidden beneath the kitchen sink. By going public with his grievance, he effectively ended any chance he will ever have to coach college football again. If he and his attorney had functioning brains, they would have privately sent a few shreds of evidence and told the UT lawyers there is plenty more where that come from, so pony up.