Thoughts of the Day: October 28, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Thursday morning:

“It’s like déjà vu all over again” – Yogi Berra

The Florida Gators don’t have a chance of beating the Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville Saturday. At least, that’s what everyone in the national media, every Georgia fan and probably a good number of Florida fans believe. It sounds a lot like 2002 to me. It also sounds a lot like 2005. Florida didn’t stand a chance in 2002 or 2005, either.

It’s fairly easy to understand why everyone is jumping on the Georgia train right now. Alabama has lost a game and darn near went belly up against Florida back in September. Georgia, meanwhile, is unbeaten (7-0, 5-0 SEC), ranked No. 1 in the nation, and has a defense that would be the envy of Bronko Nagurski or Bear Bryant if either one were still alive. It is true that Georgia either leads the nation or ranks near the top in nearly every defensive category, and that has plenty to do with why the Bulldogs are 14-point favorites to wipe the floor of TIAA Stadium with the Gators (4-3, 2-3 SEC), who most recently gave up a half-bazillion yards on the ground in a 49-42 loss to unranked LSU.

But, we have seen versions of this movie before, haven’t we?

Go back to 2002. The Gators limped into Jacksonville with a 5-3 record, the losses at the hands of Miami (41-16), Ole Miss (17-14) and LSU (36-7). Georgia arrived 8-0, ranked fifth and prohibitive favorites. A funny thing happened on the way to a rout, however. Florida changed tactics. Rex Grossman went horizontal and mastered the 2-inch pass. He threw 46 times, completed 36 for 339 yards. On the 10-play, 89-yard drive that got the game winning TD from Grossman to Ben Troupe, Grossman was 8-9 but only three of the passes could be considered downfield throws. Georgia never figured it out. David Pollack, who was supposed to spend the entire game in the Florida backfield, got one sack, the only time Georgia got to Grossman. Florida, meanwhile, sacked the Georgia QBs four times and Guss Scott ran a pick back 47 yards for a UF TD. So much for Florida’s lousy defense being able to stop that high-powered Georgia offense. Final score:Florida 20, Georgia 13. It was the only loss Georgia suffered all year.

And then there was 2005, Urban Meyer’s first year on the Florida job. The Gators arrived in Jacksonville 5-2, ranked 16th and on heels of a loss to LSU in Baton Rouge so painful that Meyer burst into tears during his postgame press conference. Georgia was 7-0, ranked fourth and expected to make “Urban Crier” burst into tears again. The Gators drove 80 yards in 13 plays for a TD on their opening possession with Chris Leak scoring from three yards out. After forcing a 3-and-out, Vernell Brown ran a punt back 29 yards to set up a 4-play, 41-yard scoring drive that finished with a 1-yard Leak to Tate Casey TDP. From that point on, it was all on the Florida defense, which bent but broke only once. Brandon Coutu, who hit 23-29 field goals that year, missed from 39 and 52 yards in the second half. Final score: Florida 14, Georgia 10. Georgia lost to Auburn the next week, and after beating LSU in the SEC Championship Game, lost to West Virginia in the Sugar Bowl.

The moral of the story: Yes, the Gators are prohibitive underdogs. Yes, Georgia is supposed to end the national championship drought that is 14,910 days and counting. Everybody in the media says so and they’re never wrong. Right? Okay, so they all picked Spencer Rattler to win the Heisman but they know their stuff. Right?

Georgia may very well live up to the hype and blow the doors off the Gators, but strange things happen in Jacksonville, and not always to Georgia (see Run Lindsay run! See Fourth and Dumb!). Maybe Dan Mullen won’t come up with a game plan that can move the ball on the Georgia defense. Maybe Todd Grantham will have a defensive game plan that is reminiscent of LSU. But maybe Anthony Richardson becomes lightning in a bottle. Maybe the three-headed running back monster of Dameon Pierce, Nay’Quan Wright and Malik Davis will play the game of their lives. Maybe Brenton Cox Jr., Zachary Carter and Kaiir Elam stick it to Georgia.

Maybe. It’s Florida-Georgia. It’s Jacksonville. Strange things have happened before. If they happen again, remember you heard it here first.

TODD MCSHAY GIVES KAIIR ELAM HIGH GRADE: Elam is McShay’s No. 11 overall prospect and the second corner in his latest top 32 NFL prospects. McShay writes, “Elam is instinctive and aggressive. He has loads of top end speed (he ran track in high school), great closing burst and excellent awareness in coverage, and he is able to play in press, zone or off-man.”

OVER, UNDER, AROUND AND THROUGH THE SEC

Alabama (7-1, 4-1 SEC): Nick Saban, who turns 70 Sunday on when he might retire: “The only thing I’ve ever said is that if I felt like I was riding the program down or I wasn’t able to make a positive contribution to the program, then that would probably be time to let somebody else carry the torch.” … Left tackle Evan Neal is Todd McShay’s 3rd-ranked NFL Draft prospect while wide receiver John Metchie III is No. 26 and wide receiver Jameson Williams is No. 28.

Arkansas (5-3, 1-3 SEC): Sam Pittman on The Paul Finebaum Show on some of the problems with SEC officiating: “I think they’re got to be some type of rules changes, you know, for the flops and certainly the targeting calls. I think we’ll address that and if we can clean that part of it up. We may have put too much on officials, to be honest with you. They’re looking for every single thing and maybe that’s part of what might be a problem.” Pittman said there are 20 flops per game but asked what is a real injury and what is a flop? “I’m not a medical doctor but it has to be addressed,” he said … Wide receiver Treylon Burks is Todd McShay’s No. 18 NFL prospect.

Auburn (5-2, 2-1): HBC Bryan Harsin on the improvement of quarterback Bo Nix: “I think he’s fundamentally improved himself from the spring and to where he is now … He’s always put in the time.” Nix is completing 59 percent of his passes and has thrown 10 touchdown passes … Cornerback Roger McCreary is the No. 31 NFL prospect per Todd McShay.

Georgia (7-0, 5-0 SEC): Making Todd McShay’s top 32 NFL Draft prospects are defensive tackle Jordan Davis (13), linebacker Nakobe Dean (14) and linebacker Adam Anderson (29).

Kentucky (6-1, 4-1 SEC): Wide receiver Josh Ali, who has been out since the Florida game, will be available for Saturday’s game with Mississippi State. “He will definitely play and hopefully be at full speed,” HBC Mark Stoops said. LSU (4-4, 2-3 SEC): Coach Oeaux says the Tigers have so many injuries that they were unable to hold a full practice on Wednesday … Navonteque Strong, who was one of the best junior college linebackers in the country prior to transferring to LSU, has entered his name in the NCAA transfer portal. He had 17 tackles including a sack in LSU’s eight games … Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. is the 2nd-ranked NFL Draft prospect per Todd McShay.

Mississippi State (4-3, 2-2 SEC): Offensive tackle Charles Cross is the 7th-ranked NFL Draft prospect per Todd McShay.

Missouri (3-4, 0-3 SEC): Running back Michael Cox and long snapper Daniel Hawthorne are now former walk-ons. HBC Eli Drinkwitz put them on scholarship Wednesday.

Ole Miss (6-1, 4-1 SEC): On WJOX in Birmingham, ESPN radio host Bo Bounds said he thinks Lane Kiffin would leave LSU if the right offer came around. “I think if Lane’s offered the LSU job – and I have no idea if he will be – then I think he would have to take it,” Bounds said. “I mean, they’re losing Matt Corral, 17 starters. At Bama and Clemson and Ohio State, Georgia, I guess a few other programs, you can usually reload pretty quick and so on, right?” … Todd McShay rates QB Matt Corral as the No. 21 NFL Draft prospect.

South Carolina (4-3, 1-3 SEC): On the SEC Coaches Teleconference, Shane Beamer said QB Zeb Noland is back in the practice facility and moving around fairly well one day after having a surgical procedure on his knee. Noland is expected to be back on the field for the Gamecocks’ next game against Florida.

Tennessee (4-4, 2-3 SEC): Harrison Bailey, who started three games and played in six as a freshman in 2020 but has been relegated to the bench by first year coach Josh Heupel, has entered his name in the NCAA transfer portal. He’s a former 4-star prospect with a big arm. He will have plenty of options.

Texas A&M (6-2, 3-2 SEC): Todd McShay rates defensive tackle DeMarvin Leal as the 9th-best prospect for the 2022 NFL Draft. Tight end Jalen Wydermyer is McShay’s 19th ranked prospect. Basketball: Buzz Williams, who has been suspended for two games as part of a 2-year NCAA probation, said, “I’m disappointed but at the end of the day, it’s on me. It began during the lockdown but it wasn’t overly intentional. We were just trying to find some safety for our guys.”

Vanderbilt (2-6, 0-4 SEC): QB Ken Seals remains week-to-week so Vandy is preparing for Missouri with Mike Wright as the starter with Jeremy Moussa as the backup.

FOOTBALL IN THE MINOR LEAGUES

ACC: This can’t bode well for Virginia Tech’s embattled head coach Justin Fuente. Suspended linebacker Isimemen Etute has been indicted on second degree murder charges for the blount force trauma death of a 40-year-old Roanoke man … No. 11 Notre Dame (6-1) is a 3.5-point faovite over North Carolina (4-3) and Sam Howell in South Bend.

Big Ten: At least one unbeaten will get tagged with its first loss Saturday when 6th-ranked Michigan (7-0) travels to 8th-ranked Michigan State (7-0). The loser will likely be eliminated from the College Football Playoff. Michigan is a 4-point favorite … Iowa (6-1) is ranked No. 9 nationally but is a 3.5-point underdog on the road to unranked Wisconsin (4-3).

Big 12: Former Mike Leach quarterbacks will square off Saturday when Texas Tech (5-3) visits Oklahoma (8-0). Texas Tech interim Sonny Cumbie started one season for Leach at Texas Tech while Riley was a career backup.

Pac-12: Immunologist Dr. Guy Palmer told ESPN that in conversations he had with fired Washington State football coach Nick Rolovich that religious objections were never discussed. Rolovich’s attorney says a lawsuit is in the works with Rolovich claiming he refused the vaccine on religious concerns.

Group of Five: Old Dominion is the latest team to depart Conference USA, joining the Sun Belt no later than July 1, 2023. Marshall is expected to join later this week with James Madison added next week. JMU will be making the jump from D1AA to Division I football.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: I broke out my Phil Steele College Football 2021 magazine today and turned to the All-America page. Here are the quarterbacks (in order) first through fourth team: Spencer Rattler, Oklahoma; Sam Howell, North Carolina; Matt Corral, Ole Miss; and DJ Uiagalelei, Clemson. Rattler has been benched and probably transfers out. Howell’s draft stock is falling although he hasn’t been terrible. Uiagalelei quarterbacks the worst Clemson offense maybe since Frank Howard was a real person and not a rock. Matt Corral? He’s the best QB in the country and should win the Heisman if the people in the media who vote have good sense. They always get things right … don’t they?