Thoughts of the Day: October 29, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

CAN THE GATORS DO THE UNTHINKABLE SATURDAY IN JACKSONVILLE? Apparently everybody with a functioning brain seems to think not. Well, at least if you ask your typical Georgia fan, that’s what they’ll tell you. Georgia is No. 1 in the nation and the Florida Gators (4-3, 2-3 SEC) are merely a speed bump, hardly anything to worry about. Michael Cunningham of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says the Bulldogs will cover the 14-point spread and he’s not alone. Stewart Mandel and Bruce Feldman of The Athletic have Georgia winning by three or more touchdowns.

So there you go. Why even show up if you’re the Gators?

Not everybody is thinking that way. In his Saturday Down South column, Matt Hayes, one of the top college football writers in the country, reminded us of one teensy little fact. One Power 5 coach told Hayes, “I’m trying to figure out who (Georgia) has beaten.”

Another Power 5 coach told Hayes, “Responding to adversity is a good thing. I’m not sure (Georgia) has had to do that yet, and that’s not a good thing for what’s ahead.”

Adversity. The coaches are right. Who has Georgia actually beaten and have the Bulldogs actually had to handle any adversity this season? Most of the media and 100 percent of Georgia fans seem to think Georgia is so good that there won’t be anything close to adversity until the SEC Championship Game, but strange things have happened in Jacksonville in previous years. Could something strange happen Saturday? Can Dan Mullen come up with a game plan that Georgia is unprepared to deal with? Can Todd Grantham make this an audition for his next job by coming up with something exotic that slows the Georgia offense to a crawl? Can the Gators avoid the big mistake at the most inopportune moment on either side of the ball or on special teams?

Those questions won’t be answered until Saturday, but do know this: Florida is capable of beating Georgia but I’m of the opinion only if these three things happen: (1) Anthony Richardson has to be electric; (2) the three big guys in the middle of the Florida offensive line – Kingsley Eguakun, Ethan White and Stewart Reese – have to neutralize Jordan Davis; and (3) Florida’s front seven have to play four quarters the way they played the final three quarters against Alabama.

Richardson has to be electric because from what I’ve seen, nearly every team Georgia has played has tried to nickel and dime them without much success. I don’t believe you can beat Georgia dinking and dunking in the passing game. You have to be able to make downfield throws and I am not of the opinion Emory Jones has the confidence or vision to make those kind of throws. I think Richardson has the big arm and he’s the dynamic in the Florida running game that will at least give the Gators a puncher’s chance.

Davis has been a one-man gang in the middle all season long. He’s even being talked about as the possibly the first nose tackle to ever win the Heisman Trophy. If he has his way in the middle then Florida’s chances to win decline significantly, but what happens if White, Eguakun and Reese can neutralize him? Lest we forget, the Gators gouged the Alabama defense for 258 yards on the ground and both D.J. Dale and Tim Smith, Bama’s two-headed monster at nose tackle, spent a lot of the day being stood up by White, Eguakun and Reese.

Florida’s front seven was ridiculously bad against LSU, which ran for 321 yards. The Gators have too much talent for something like that to happen. Grantham had what can only be described as a rotten day calling the defense and adjusting. There isn’t much secret to what Georgia is going to do: line up, try to blow UF off the ball and then throw it over the top when the Gators try to crowd the line of scrimmage. To stop that, Florida’s front seven has to show up and play like they did in the final three quarters against Alabama when they held Alabama to 152 yards and only 10 points. It’s up to Todd Grantham to dial up four quarters of defense like the last three against Alabama for Florida to win.

So what happens Saturday? I think Georgia should be favored, but will this be a blowout? It will be if the Gators are mistake-prone or if Grantham has another day like the one in Baton Rouge two weeks ago. But what happens if the Gators deal Georgia some early adversity and Grantham has a hot hand? Then it gets interesting. Interesting enough for the Gators to spring the upset? The Sayer says sooth: Georgia 23, Florida 21

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER

No. 10 Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1 SEC) at No. 18 Auburn (5-2, 2-1 SEC): In three of their last four games, the Auburn defense has been gouged for more than 200 yards including last week when Arkansas ran for 232. Saturday the Tigers will have to stop Ole Miss from running the ball and so far the only team to do that is Alabama. Since that Alabama debacle, Ole Miss has run for 868 yards in wins over Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU, which is actually more yards than the Rebels have thrown for (723). If Auburn loads up the box to stop the run, then Matt Corral will pick them apart. If they try to stop the pass, Ole Miss will pound away. The people in Vegas don’t seem to see it that way, however. They have Auburn as a 3-point home favorite. They must think good Bo Nix shows up and not his evil twin Skippy Nix, the one who misses open receivers and turns potentially good plays into bad ones. The Sayer says sooth: Ole Miss 35, Auburn 24

No. 12 Kentucky (6-1, 4-1 SEC) at Mississippi State (4-3, 2-2 SEC): Kentucky has lost its last four games against Mississippi State and 11 of the last 12, which might have something to do with the oddsmakers in Las Vegas making MSU a 1-point favorite for Saturday night’s game. Maybe the people who make the point spreads figure it’s business as usual and Kentucky will figure out a way to lose again to Mississippi State. Mississippi State has been excellent against the run all season (93 yards per game) and for Mike Leach to win this one, the Bulldogs are going to have to make Kentucky win the game on the arm of Will Levis. For Kentucky to win, the Wildcats can’t let Mississippi State nickel and dime them to death with five and six-yard passes. That’s how MSU knocked off Texas A&M the week before the Aggies handed Alabama its only loss of the season. This one just feels like an upset. The Sayer says sooth: Mississippi State 24, Kentucky 20

Missouri (3-4, 0-3 SEC) at Vanderbilt (2-6, 0-4 SEC): This is a battle of two of the worst defenses in all of college football. Missouri is No. 126 nationally and dead last in the SEC, giving up 489.3 yards per game and 6.78 yards per play. The Tigers are 129th against the run (287.57 yards per game, 6.17 per carry). They’re 34th against the pass (201.7 yards per game) but why pass when it’s so easy to run on the Tigers? And then there is Vandy, which is No. 120 nationally in total defense (457.8 yards per game, 6.56 per play), and next to last in the SEC. The Commodores are 95th against the run (171.38 yards, 5.08 per carry) and 122nd against the pass (286.4 yards, 22 TDPs allowed). Despite the mutual ineptitude, Missouri actually has an edge. The Tigers aren’t that bad offensively (447.1 yards per game) and they have one of the SEC’s best players in Tyler Badie (736 rushing yards, 9 TDs; 32-256 receiving, 4 TDs). Vanderbilt’s offense is 124thnationally (291.4 yards per game), which is barely more than what Mizzou QB Conor Bazelac throws for each game (274.3 yards). This is the last chance for a Vandy win since the final three games are Kentucky, at Ole Miss and at Tennessee, but it’s a tall task against a Missouri team that Vegas favors by 16.5 points. The Sayer says sooth: Missouri 35, Vanderbilt 17

GAMES TO KEEP AN EYE ON

No. 6 Michigan (7-0) at No. 8 Michigan State (7-0): One of them gets a first loss and barring something totally strange, loses its chance at the College Football Playoff. For a couple of teams that have played seriously weak schedules, this game is getting way too much hype. This will be Michigan’s first ranked opponent. Michigan State played Miami back when the Hurricanes were ranked, but that’s not exactly a write home to mom kind of win. Michigan is a shaky 4-point favorite.

No. 9 Iowa (6-1) at Wisconsin (4-3): Wisconsin is unranked and a 4-point favorite over a team that just a couple of weeks ago was unbeaten and ranked second nationally. Iowa’s offense is ranked 119th in the nation. Wisconsin’s defense is ranked second nationally. Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz has thrown five more interceptions than TDs. Iowa leads the nation in interceptions. If you are an insomniac, tune in. This could be the cure.

North Carolina (4-3) at No. 11 Notre Dame (6-1): The Irish are ranked 11th nationally, which is about 11 spots too high. They can’t run the ball (107.71 yards per game) and opponents have sacked their QB 25 times. North Carolina’s offensive line isn’t any better. Sam Howell has been sacked 27 times, but the Tar Heels can run it and if Howell has time, he can carve up a very suspect Irish defense. The Irish are 3.5-point favorites. Somehow.

Miami (3-4) at No. 17 Pittsburgh (6-1): If Miami gets its doors blown off by Pittsburgh (9-point favorite) Saturday, buzzards will be circling The Ewe’s football offices before the team plane touches down at Miami International on the return home. Manny Diaz is on very shaky ground right now but he staved off the critics for at least one week when the Canes knocked off North Carolina State. Can they do it two in a row against Kenny Pickett? Pickett’s slim Heisman chances will nosedive if he doesn’t light up The Ewe.

No. 19 SMU (7-0) at Houston (6-1): SMU quarterback Tanner Mordecai is tied for the national lead in touchdown passes with 29. Saturday he’ll have to get the job done on the road in the face of Houston’s ferocious pass rush (28 sacks in seven games). This is a very interesting matchup against two Air Raid offense guys in SMU’s Sonny Dykes and Houston’s Dana Holgorsen. The funny thing is, Houston is getting it done with conservative offense and defense while SMU has the lights out offense, averaging 525.4 yards and 42.1 points per game. Vegas has it even with a 62-point over/under.

Fresno State (6-2) at No. 21 San Diego State (7-0): The winner probably ends up winning the Mountain West’s West Division. It’s an interesting matchup between Fresno QB Jake Haener and the nation’s No. 11 offense against the nation’s No. 5 defense. San Diego State is a very shaky 1-point favorite playing on its “home field,” the soccer stadium in Carson, California (new on campus stadium due next year).

Florida State (3-4) at Clemson (4-3): As bad as Clemson’s offense is (117th nationally) the Tigers are still favored by 9.5 points over FSU, which is the ultimate sign of disrespect. The folks in Vegas don’t seem to care that FSU has won three in a row.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: ESPN reports that bowl executives are of the opinion that an expanded College Football Playoff should be played exclusively within the bowl structure and not on college campuses. My hope is that college football has enough sense to defer – for once – to the fans by rewarding them with games in their home stadium. What the bowls pay now is a drop in the bucket of what they’re capable of paying, so unless they want to pay far more money than they’re paying now, then it’s time to render them obsolete for the playoffs at least. Let the bowls be the college football equivalent of the NIT if they must exist.