Thoughts of the day: October 4, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday morning:

GATORS FAVORED BY A VERY SHAKY 11 POINTS

The Gators (3-2, 0-2 SEC) have been established as 11-point favorites to take out Missouri (2-3, 0-2 SEC) for Saturday’s homecoming game (12 noon, Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, ESPNU). All things considered, this is a shaky 11 points because with the exception of the blowout win over Eastern Washington the other Florida games have all been white knucklers. This is not the kind of season where anything is all that certain for a Florida team that could just as easily be 5-0 or 1-4 right now.

Missouri can’t be taken lightly, not after the Tigers had No. 2 Georgia on the ropes in Columbia before falling 26-22. The Tigers have a pair of wins over inferior non-conference opponents and a 40-12 blowout loss to Kansas State, but they can look at losses to Auburn and Georgia and think what might have been if not for critical mistakes in the fourth quarter.

Florida’s offense, which looked so fragile in the loss to Kentucky and the close call win over South Florida, seems to have found its sea legs so barring a completely unexpected reversal of fortune, the Gators should be in good shape against Mizzou. The Tigers struggled to stop the K-State running game (235 yards, 4 TDs) and had all sorts of problems with Georgia’s passing game (312 yards). Florida runs it well (210.2 per game led by Montrell Johnson Jr. 38-282, 4 TDs) and Anthony Richardson has found a really nice groove throwing to Justin Shorter (14-314, 1 TD) and Ricky Pearsall (13-245). After 597 yards against Tennessee and 666 against Eastern Washington, Florida’s offense seems to be in a very good place.

We can’t say the same about a defense that is allowing 27 points and 421.4 yards per game. The 2020 Gators, by contrast, gave up 428 yards and 30.8 points per game. The Gators are allowing opponents to average 42 running plays per game that are good for 193.2 yards and 4.6 per carry. Opponents are averaging 228.2 yards per game passing. The number that’s disturbing is the 7.5 yards per pass attempt. Against Georgia’s vaunted defense, the Tigers threw for 192 yards and a TD and averaged nearly five yards (4.86) per carry.

This should be a very winnable game for the Gators, but if we look at things analytically, the Gators had their opportunities to beat both Kentucky and Tennessee, the two games they lost. They also could have lost to both Utah and South Florida, games they won. So, 11-point favorites sounds good, but this is one of those believe it when you see it years.

Time set for UF-LSU: The Florida-LSU matchup on October 15 will be a 7 p.m. broadcast on ESPN.

By the numbers

Rushing: The Gators are 22nd nationally and fourth in the SEC at 210.2 yards per game, but the number that is important is yards per carry. At 6.22 per carry, the Gators rank fourth nationally and second in the SEC, which says plenty about the offensive line.

Sacks allowed: This is another stat that says plenty about the offensive line. The Gators have allowed only three sacks through five games, which is a 5-way tie for seventh nationally. It should be noted that on only one of the sacks was Anthony Richardson tackled. On the other two he ran out of bounds.

Total offense: The Gators are averaging 463.8 yards per game which is 27th in the country and fifth in the SEC. The important number is 7.41 yards per play, which ranks fourth nationally and second in the SEC. It should be noted that the Gators are averaging only 62.6 plays per game (Tennessee, for example averages 75.75 plays per game).

Other UF sports

Men’s golf: The Gators are 14th through two rounds of the Ben Hogan Collegiate in Fort Worth. The Gators are at +12 for the two days, 22 shots behind North Carolina and 18 behind second place Stanford.

Volleyball: The Gators (10-3, 2-1 SEC) are ranked 15th in the latest AVCA poll. Next match is Wednesday in Knoxville against Tennessee (8-7, 2-1 SEC).

Baseball: D1Baseball.com ranks Florida as the No. 4 baseball program in the country. The top 10: 1. Vanderbilt; 2. Arkansas; 3. Mississippi State; 4. FLORIDA; 5. Oregon State; 6. Louisville; 7. LSU; 8. Ole Miss; 9. Texas Tech; 10. Stanford.

SEC football

No. 1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0 SEC): Nick Saban got a bit testy with the media when talking about Bryce Young’s injury and what the Tide will do if Jalen Milroe is the QB when the Aggies come to town Saturday night. Saban said Monday, “You think I’m going to tell you what I’m going to do with our offense and our team? You might as well make it up. I saw today there’s headlines I’m going to keep a secret what we’re doing with Bryce. It sounded like me making that statement! But I’ve never said that! But it was there in black and white like so you can make up whatever you want to make up. Look at somebody else’s running quarterback and say they should put these plays in. Think that’d be the better way to do it.”

Arkansas (3-2, 1-2 SEC): Quarterback KJ Jefferson may not be available for Saturday’s game at Mississippi State. Jefferson left the Alabama game with what appeared to be a concussion. HBC Sam Pittman said, “He has some mild symptoms and those are things the doctors look at … He’s kind of a wait and see, to be honest with you.” If Jefferson can’t go, Arkansas is expected to go with Cade Fortin, who is 4-10 passing for 35 yards with one running play for nine yards so far this season.

Auburn (3-2, 1-1 SEC): Eku Leota, an edge rusher who transferred to Auburn from Northwestern, is done for the year after surgery to repair an injured pectoral muscle. Leota had two sacks and five tackles for loss prior to the injury. HBC Bryan Harsin said, “He’s an emotional leader; he’s one of the smartest players we have.”

No. 2 Georgia (5-0, 2-0 SEC): Defensive tackle Jalen Carter, expected to be a top five pick in the NFL Draft, will miss at least 1-2 weeks with an MCL sprained in the win over Missouri … Defensive back Javon Bullard’s suspension for a DUI lasted all of one game. He’s practicing again and will be available Saturday when the Bulldogs host Auburn.

No. 13 Kentucky (4-1, 1-1 SEC): The Wildcats are 13th in the SEC in total offense (367.8 yards per game) and dead last in rushing (86.8 yards per game, 2.52 per carry). They lead the SEC and are 127th nationally in sacks allowed, 19 for -123 yards.

No. 25 LSU (4-1, 2-0 SEC): Speaking to Paul Finebaum about the status of quarterback Jayden Daniels, who couldn’t finish the Tigers’ win over Auburn Saturday night, HBC Brian Kelly said Daniels was “hurt but the pain level was pretty high so he wasn’t able to finish the game, but he’s much better today and he’ll be ready to play on Saturday.” Saturday, LSU will play host to Tennessee.

No. 23 Mississippi State (4-1, 1-1 SEC): Will Rogers leads the nation and is fourth in the nation in passing, averaging 343 yards per game. He has thrown for 1,715 yards (7.3 per attempt) with 19 touchdown passes against only three interceptions. Rogers is 171-234 which is 73.1 percent.

Missouri (2-3, 0-2 SEC): Dominic Lovett has emerged as Mizzou’s go-to receiver with 27 catches for 460 yards (17.04 per catch) and two touchdowns.

No. 9 Ole Miss (5-0, 1-0 SEC): Led by freshman Quinshon Judkins (85-535, 6 touchdowns) and Zach Evans (68-389, 5 touchdowns), Ole Miss leads the SEC and ranks fifth nationally in rushing at 261.8 yards per game (5.62 per carry) … The Rebels are giving up just 11.8 points per game, which is third in the SEC and seventh nationally.

South Carolina (3-2, 0-2 SEC): The Gamecocks have turned the ball over more than any team in the SEC (13), having thrown nine interceptions and fumbled it away four times. Quarterback Spencer Rattler has thrown seven interceptions, worst number in the SEC.

No. 8 Tennessee (4-0, 1-0 SEC): Defensive back Warren Burrell, who started every game and had 41 tackles, is out for the season after undergoing surgery to repair an upper body injury … Wide receiver Cedric Tillman, who had tightrope surgery to repair an ankle injury, practiced in a limited capacity Monday. He’s listed day-to-day and could actually play Saturday when the Vols play LSU in Baton Rouge.

Texas A&M (3-2, 1-1 SEC): Quarterback Max Johnson had to leave the loss to Mississippi State with an injury to his right (non-throwing) hand. In a Monday update about Johnson’s status ahead of Saturday’s game with Alabama, HBC Jimbo Fisher said, “We’ll go day-to-day. We’ll get Haynes (King) and Conner (Weigman) ready to play if Max can’t go.”

Vanderbilt (3-2, 0-1 SEC): After a week off, the Commodores will be home Saturday against 9th-ranked Ole Miss. The Commodores have the worst defense in the SEC (457.2 yards per game) to go against an Ole Miss offense that is averaging 37.2 points and 470.2 yards per game.

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

Oklahoma (3-2, 0-2 Big 12): The Sooners have started the Big 12 season 0-2 for the first time since 1998 when John Blake was in his final season as the HBC.

Texas (3-2, 1-1 Big 12): Quinn Ewers is healthy enough to play Saturday when the Longhorns face Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry game in Dallas, but Hudson Card is coming off his best game ever (303 passing yards, three TDs) in the Longhorns win over West Virginia.

Mike Leach said it …

While being interviewed by SEC Network sideline reporter Alyssa Lang after Mississippi State blew the doors off Texas A&M, 42-24, this past Saturday, Mike Leach offered some advice to Lang, who is engaged to marry another college football reporter:

“As soon as the season’s over or even in an off week, go elope, because basically every female in the family is going to terrorize you guys until it’s over. Once it’s over, they’ll be upset for a few days, but it’ll be over. Then you cruise along, have a happy marriage, have a happy life.”

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Wisconsin is going to pay Paul Chryst $11 million by February 1, 2023 to simply go away. Colorado parted ways with Karl Dorrell at a cost of $8.7 million. Apparently Auburn, which paid Gus Malzahn $21.4 million to go away after the 2020 season, seems all set to send Bryan Harsin on his merry way. He’ll have to squeeze by on $18 million once those zany Auburn alums pony up the good-bye money. Aggie boosters are so upset with Jimbo that rumors are flying that they’ve already got commitments for the $94.5 million it will take to buy out his fully guaranteed contract.

There was a time when coaches were given a reasonable amount of time to turn a program around – usually 4-5 years – and you didn’t fire coaches who won more than they lost and kept the program out of the NCAA jailhouse. No more. The window to turn a program around is three years tops. Coaches who don’t have their teams on track to win big might as well bend over at the waist, stick their heads between their legs and kiss their butts good bye. With a nice buyout, of course.

Football is big business and if the football team isn’t winning, those boosters who write the big checks that pay for standalone football facilities and other amenities aren’t going to be happy campers. Get used to it. It’s the world we’re living in.