Thoughts of the Day: October 8, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

JUST WHAT THE DOCTOR ORDERED: A GET WELL GAME

There is a reason why you never hear the other 13 teams in the SEC complaining about Vanderbilt (2-3). Fans don’t like it that Vandy takes a full share of the conference money even though it makes very little contribution, but you won’t hear that from athletic directors and head coaches from around the league. They know that as long as Vandy is in the league they have an almost guaranteed win any time the Commodores are on the schedule and it’s not like you’re actually going on the road any time the schedule send you to Nashville.

When Vandy comes to your place, you’ve got yourself a nifty Homecoming opponent, which is what 20th-ranked Florida (3-2, 1-2 SEC) has Saturday. The Gators are favored by 39 points and it should be considered a moral victory for the Commodores if it’s that close. Vanderbilt is that bad, and that’s a good thing for the Gators, who (a) need a big win to wash the bad taste of last week’s loss to Kentucky out of their mouths, (b) need to get at least a full half of snaps for Anthony Richardson and (c) need to do something in the passing game other than dink and dunk. The Florida alumni should be happy if the Gators hang 50 or more on Vandy and they get to see Richardson for more than a snap or two here and there.

It would also be nice if the Gators throw something other than two-yard passes to Justin Shorter and Xzavier Henderson, who seem to spend a lot of time open whenever they are allowed to run routes that cover more than 10 yards. Some carries for Demarkcus Bowman and Lorenzo Lingard would also be very nice.

Florida needs to play focused and angry. This is no time to feel sorry for poor, pitiful Vandy. The Gators need to come out of the locker with the idea that they’re going to put Vanderbilt out of its misery early. The Sayer says sooth: FLORIDA 59, Vanderbilt 7

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER

No. 1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0 SEC) at Texas A&M (3-2, 0-2 SEC): Until a couple of weeks ago, every Aggie fan in the world had this game circled on his calendar. Oh, for another shot at mighty Bama and a chance to pay Nick Saban back for crushing the Aggies last year and keeping them from making the College Football Playoff. Well, sometimes you get what you ask for and in the case of Texas A&M, things don’t look quite as rosy as they did before they were taken to the woodshed by Arkansas and then followed that up with a loss to Mississippi State. Alabama is just starting to feel good about itself, which is bad news for the Aggies, who would love something, anything to feel good about. Texas A&M’s offensive line does a marvelous imitation of a sieve, which means QB Zack Calzada needs to be in his feets don’t fail me now mode from the opening kickoff until the final whistle. Making things worse, this week former Nick Saban assistant and current Aggie head coach Jimbo Fisher made the mistake of saying Texas A&M doesn’t fear Alabama. Bad Jimbo. Very bad. It’s not nice to make Nick mad. Nick will be very mad Saturday night. The Sayer says sooth: Alabama 42, Texas A&M 14

No. 2 Georgia (5-0, 3-0 SEC) at No. 18 Auburn (4-1, 1-0 SEC): The question of the day is which Bo Nix shows up for Georgia’s first real road game of the season: Good Bo Nix, the one who extends plays with his crazy scrambles to keep drives alive, or Bo’s evil twin Skippy? Skippy Nix has this penchant for making people think he’s bet several grand on whoever Auburn is playing. If Skippy shows up against Georgia, Auburn is toast. If Good Bo shows up, the Tigers have a puncher’s chance. That’s not to say it’s necessarily a good chance, but it’s a chance just the same. Good Bo has to make plays with his feet and throwing the ball so that Tank Bigsby can give Auburn enough of a ground game to keep the chains moving. If Auburn can’t run, the Tigers can’t win. This is Georgia’s first real road game. Yes, the Bulldogs did play at Vanderbilt, but (a) that’s like playing a high school JV team and (b) there were at least as many Georgia fans as Vandy fans that day. The Bulldogs need to take charge of the game early to silence what will be a hostile Auburn crowd. The longer Auburn can stick with Georgia, the louder that crowd is going to be and the more difficult it will be for Georgia to win handily. Georgia is a 15.5-point favorite, which seems a bit much although the Bulldogs are clearly the most talented team. The Sayer says sooth: Georgia 31, Auburn 21

No. 13 Arkansas (4-1, 1-1 SEC) at No. 17 Ole Miss (3-1, 0-1 SEC): A year ago when Ole Miss played Arkansas, Barry Odom threw up a zone defense that turned Matt Corral’s brain into mush. Six interceptions later, Arkansas had a 33-21 win. Corral’s had an entire year to figure out how to read a zone defense that keeps everything in front of the safeties, so the question for Saturday is will Odom give Corral the same look as last year or does he have a few new tricks up his sleeve? Corral is a better quarterback than the one Arkansas picked off early and often last year, but Arkansas is a better football team. Both teams had their doors blown off last week – Ole Miss at Alabama and Arkansas at Georgia – so who wins Saturday afternoon might be the team that has recovered from PTSD and is thinking clearly once again. The Hogs have already beaten two ranked teams while Ole Miss got boatraced in its only encounter. In Fayette Nam, the Hogs would be clear favorites. This one is in Oxford and the thinking here is that Lane Kiffin is not going to have his offense nor his quarterback embarrassed two consecutive weeks. The Sayer says sooth: Ole Miss 37, Arkansas 33

LSU (3-2, 1-1 SEC) at No. 16 Kentucky (5-0, 3-0 SEC): Kentucky is a shaky 3-point favorite at home Saturday night against an LSU team that can’t run the football and will be playing without the one guy – Darryl Stingley Jr. – who could probably blanket UK star wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson. LSU ranks dead last in the SEC in pass defense but the Tigers are decent against the run. Can they shut down the UK running game and make Will Levis beat them with his arm? The Sayer says sooth: LSU 24, Kentucky 20

South Carolina (3-2, 0-2 SEC) at Tennessee (3-2, 1-1 SEC): Now that Josh Heupel has moved on past that silly idea that Joe Milton III can quarterback the Vols to some wins in the SEC, the future is looking at lot brighter for UT. Hendon Hooker, the guy who should have been starting all along, may not have the big arm, but he makes good throws and he only runs when he’s gone through all his progressions, unlike Milton, who has the happiest feet in the SEC. The Vols are coming off a 458-yard rushing game against Missouri last week. They probably don’t get that many Saturday against South Carolina, but they won’t have to. South Carolina can’t run the ball and if the Gamecocks can’t run the ball to keep the Vols off the field, they’ll get blown out. The Vols are only favored by 10.5 points. It should be much more. The Sayer says sooth: Tennessee 38, South Carolina 17

North Texas (1-3) at Missouri (2-3): The good news for Mizzou is that Saturday’s opponent is a poor North Texas team from Conference USA, the worst league in all of Division I. The bad news for the Tigers is North Texas averaged 208 rushing yards per game. Missouri’s run defense gives up 308.4 yards per game and 6.56 per carry. It’s so bad that HBC Eli Drinkwitz fired his defensive line coach back on Monday. He might do better to just fire the entire defensive line. Missouri is a 19-point favorite because quarterback Connor Bazelac averages 304.4 yards per game throwing the football and the Mean Green have problems defending against anyone who has a clue. Bazelac has a real clue. This is Missouri’s last non-conference game. The Tigers need six wins to go bowling so this is a game they can’t afford to lose. The Sayer says sooth: Missouri 40, North Texas 24

SEVEN NON-SEC GAMES TO WATCH SATURDAY No. 6 Oklahoma (5-0) vs. No. 21 Texas (4-1): Oklahoma is favored by three in the Red River Rivalry. Ever since the loss to Arkansas, Texas has been clicking on offense. This just feels like a Texas win.

No. 4 Penn State (5-0) at No. 3 Iowa (5-0): This one threatens to put you to sleep. Defenses will dominate, but it’s probably more because both offenses suck. Iowa is a 1.5-point favorite. Perhaps they should agree that the game is over as soon as one team scores two touchdowns. Of course, that might take until Sunday afternoon.

No. 9 Michigan (5-0) at Nebraska (3-3): Michigan is a 3-point favorite, probably because nobody knows which Adrian Martinez will show up for Nebraska. If the good Adrian Martinez shows up, Nebraska could pull off the upset and give Scott Frost the signature win he’s been waiting for. If the Adrian Martinez who fumbles a lot and completes passes to the other team shows up, the Fighting Frosts don’t stand a chance.

No. 14 Notre Dame (4-1) at Virginia Tech (3-1): From the moment they crank up “Enter Sandman” at Lane Stadium, the Hokie crowd will be juiced and the noise level will be formidable. The Hokies aren’t that bad and Notre Dame isn’t that good.

Stanford (3-2) at No. 22 Arizona State (4-1): Arizona State leads the Pac-12 in both total offense and total defense. The Sun Devils are favored by 13. Why does this feel like ASU is going down?

Florida State (1-4) at North Carolina (3-2): The Seminoles got lucky last week against Syracuse at Doak Campbell. Their luck runs out Saturday in Chapel Hill. Sam Howell is going to light up FSU. North Carolina will easily cover the 17.5-point spread.

UConn (0-6) at UMass (0-5): The loser gets to claim the No. 1 spot in every Bottom Ten poll that’s out there. This game is even worse than last week’s UConn at Vandy game, won by Vandy on a last second field goal. UConn is favored by 3.5 points.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Perhaps I will change my mind in the next few weeks, but I just don’t believe there is a team in all of college football as good as last year’s Alabama. I think Alabama is still very good but this team seems rather methodical whereas a year ago it seemed the Crimson Tide could dial up a big play just about any time it wanted. I have yet to see anything from Georgia, Penn State, Iowa, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Cincinnati or any of the other unbeaten teams (only 15 left) that would convince me there is a dominant team in the bunch. A lot of good teams out there for sure, just nothing that I’ve seen to indicate greatness.