Thoughts of the Day: September 10, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

THE GOAL SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT IN EVERY PHASE OF THE GAME The Las Vegas line for ninth-ranked Florida’s game with South Florida (0-1) in Tampa Saturday afternoon (1 p.m., ABC) at Raymond James Stadium is 28.5 points. Given the fact South Florida gave up 293 rushing yards in their 45-0 loss to North Carolina State last week and the Gators (1-0) ran for a nation-leading 400 against Florida Atlantic, the Vegas line seems awfully low. Florida is going to win this football game, the only thing we don’t know is by how much?

With Alabama coming to Gainesville next weekend, the Gators need to focus on across the board improvement. Too many points were left on the field last week on the offensive side of the ball. The defense was too soft in coverage and despite six sacks, the Gators could have put more pressure on FAU quarterbacks. On special teams, kickoffs were consistently too short, something that will come back to bite UF against teams with speedy returners.

When the Gators depart Tampa to return to Gainesville Saturday evening, then need to feel confident that they’ve gotten better. Here are the five areas that call for the most improvement:

1. Emory Jones must make better decisions in the passing game: Emory Jones needs to leave Tampa feeling confident that he’s going to play well against Alabama and the best way to accomplish that is to put last week’s FAU game in the rearview. It’s a new week, a new opponent, and Jones has now started a college football game so he should feel more confident. Perhaps no one put more pressure on Emory Jones last week than Emory Jones. He can relax now. He’s started. He’s got a win. Now he can focus his attention on getting better, particularly in the passing game. Florida didn’t lack for open receivers last week, but the passing game did lack for good decision making and strong throws. Dan Mullen has raved about how well the ball comes out of Jones’ hand. We need to see that against USF. He needs to make good reads, step into his passes instead of throwing off his back foot, and he needs to hit receivers downfield on the break. If he can do that, not only will he feel better about his chances to move the football against Alabama next week, but so will a Gator nation that is waiting to be convinced Jones is the right man for the job.

2. Get some meaningful snaps for Anthony Richardson: Richardson can’t simply see the field once the game is out of reach. He needs some meaningful snaps because if anything were to happen to Emory Jones, he’s the next man up. He definitely needs some snaps with the No. 1 offensive line and receivers. As talented as he is, Richardson still needs the experience because on the job training against a team like Alabama is never a good thing for a freshman.

3. The O-line has to make it two straight games without allowing a sack: The Gators ran for 400 yards last week, averaging 8.7 yards per carry. That was impressive, but what had to please Dan Mullen and O-line coach John Hevesy was zero sacks allowed and not a single quarterback hurry. USF managed only seven sacks last season and just one against North Carolina State. If UF allows a sack it most likely means someone on the O-line either lost his focus or was flat out lazy.

4. Take away the middle in the USF run game: FAU managed only 92 rushing yards and 2.49 per carry in week one, but those averages are tempered by six sacks that were good for -36 yards. Still, it’s a genuine improvement over 2020 when UF gave up more than 170 yard per game and 4.56 per carry. South Florida is probably going to try to shorten the game by running the football straight at the UF middle. If they try to go wide, Florida has too much speed, so it’s essential that the Gators eliminate all the gaps between the tackles. Expect Des Watson to be on the field for perhaps 15-20 snaps. He can be a run-stuffing weapon.

5. Eliminate the penalties: The Gators averaged fewer than 5.5 penalties per game in each of the last two seasons. Against Florida Atlantic, the Gators committed nine for -91 yards, which is more penalties in a game than there has been since the LSU game in 2018. You can get away with that in a game with the likes of FAU but it’s a bad precedent. Nine penalties including four personal fouls will get you beat against Alabama.

The Sayer Says Sooth: FLORIDA 59, South Florida 7

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER Mercer (1-0) at No. 1 Alabama (1-0): Alabama gets its charitable donation to a D1AA team out of the way. There are two chances Mercer wins this game: no way and no how. The only thing Alabama has to fear is that one of its key players gets hurt, which would require Nick Saban looking down his bench and stroking his chin as he decides which former 5-star recruit gets the call to be the replacement. The Sayer says sooth: Alabama 63, Mercer 7

UAB (1-0) at No. 2 Georgia (1-0): The people in Las Vegas are really concerned that JT Daniels might have to sit this game with a core injury, which would mean redshirt freshman Carson Beck, who has never thrown a pass in a real game, would get the start. They’re so concerned that the Poodles are a 24-point favorite. UAB coach Bill Clark is terrific and should one day hold down an SEC job, but no matter how well he prepares a team, he doesn’t have the horses to hang with Georgia. Still, it might not be a blowout of epic proportions. The Sayer says sooth: Georgia 30, UAB 7

No. 5 Texas A&M (1-0) at Colorado (1-0): It’s a road game against a team from the pathetic Pac-12. Haynes King can have a repeat of last week when he completes passes to the other team and it won’t matter because the Aggies are going to win. They might go boring and just run the ball. They can do that. The Sayer says sooth: Texas A&M 35, Colorado 17

Austin Peay (1-0) at #20 Ole Miss (1-0): Did you happen to catch the Ole Miss defense against Louisville Monday night? They weren’t exactly write home to mom about, but they were vastly improved over last year when every snap by the other team was a 10-yard play looking for a place to happen. Austin Peay may not score. Matt Corral will have this one in the win column before halftime. The Sayer says sooth: Ole Miss 60, Austin Peay 14

No. 15 Texas (1-0) at Arkansas (1-0): There was a time when Texas-Arkansas was as big a game as there was in all of college football. That was the old SWC (Sure We Cheat) days when the coaches were Darrel Royal and Frank Broyles. Much has changed since then, but with Texas coming to the SEC within the next three or so years, the rivalry can be rekindled. It might not be as big as it once was, but it will be nice to see the two teams squaring off again. The Sayer says sooth: Texas 28, Arkansas 17 Alabama State (1-0) at #25 Auburn (1-0): A second straight cupcake means Auburn needs to be checking its team A1C. Bo Nix was sizzling last week against Akron, which is only slightly better than D1AA Alabama State. He will sizzle again Saturday which will have Auburn fans thinking he’s going to be a stud QB this year. Let’s see how much sizzle he has when he faces Penn State in Happy Valley next week, but for now, he’ll look like he actually knows how to hit a receiver on the numbers. The Sayer says sooth: Auburn 61, Alabama State 10

Missouri (1-0) at Kentucky (1-0): The first SEC game of the season might be the best game of the day considering the number of games that will be blowouts. Kentucky is a 5.5-point favorite based on its big win over Louisiana-Monroe, a game in which the Wildcats threw for an unheard of 419 yards. Mizzou got nine sacks last week against Central Michigan. If the Tigers can get even half that much pressure on Will Levis this week, this could be white knuckles to the bitter end. The Sayer says sooth: Kentucky 24, Missouri 21

North Carolina State (1-0) at Mississippi State (1-0): The Bulldogs played like they were comatose for three quarters last week before they erupted for three fourth quarter touchdowns to beat Louisiana Tech. If they get off to a similar start against North Carolina State it will be a long day at the office. This will come down to Mississippi State’s ability to stop the NC State ground game. If the Bulldogs can hold NC State to 150 or fewer yards, they win. If they can’t it’s an embarrassing loss to a team from the Always Climpson Conference. The Sayer says sooth: Mississippi State 28, North Carolina State 24

Pittsburgh (1-0) at Tennessee (1-0): The Vols are 3-point underdogs but it feels like it should be worse. Pitt isn’t that bad and has a proven quarterback in Kenny Pickett. Joe Milton looked good running the ball last week but he was very inconsistent throwing. If the Vols are unable to throw with any consistency against Pitt, they’ll go down in flames. The Sayer says sooth: Pittsburgh 28, Tennessee 21

South Carolina (1-0) at East Carolina (0-1): It really doesn’t matter who the Gamecocks start at quarterback, whether it’s last week’s starter Zeb Noland or Luke Doty, who missed last week with an injury. Winning Saturday is going to be all about who runs the ball best and with Kevin Harris back from injury to go with MarShawn Lynch, the Gamecocks will have the advantage over an ECU team that was hosed last week by Appalachian State of the Fun Belt. The Sayer says sooth: South Carolina 30, East Carolina 24

McNeese State (0-1) at LSU (0-1): A week ago LSU was ranked with people talking about how close the Tigers were to getting back to a championship level. After the way they played last week at UCLA, a lot of people are revising their estimates and thinking this might be a 6-6 season. If it’s a break-even season, Coach O will be on Lane Kiffin’s staff at Ole Miss next year. It will be dial-a-score Saturday against D1AA McNeese State. The Sayer says sooth: LSU 49, McNeese State 10

Vanderbilt (0-1) at Colorado State (0-1): Just how bad is Vanderbilt? Well, the Commodores are 7-point road dogs to a Colorado State team that got trashed last week by D1AA South Dakota State. The Fighting Addazios are going to get their first win of the season. October 2 can’t get here fast enough for Vanderbilt. That’s when UConn comes to Nashville for the last game the Commodores have even the slightest chance of winning. Another oh-fer season is on the way. The Sayer says sooth: Colorado State 30, Vanderbilt 7

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: College football will be played Saturday on the 20th anniversary of the terrorist attacks on the twin towers of the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, DC. Football and all sports came to a screeching halt that week as all flights were grounded nationwide but sports seemed so insignificant at the time. There was an attack on US soil that cost thousands of lives and that was all that was important. Do you remember where you were and what you were doing when the planes struck the twin towers?