Thoughts of the Day: September 15, 2021
A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:
WHO WILL BE ABLE TO RUN THE FOOTBALL SATURDAY? Three games into the 2020 season in which Alabama ran the table and won the national championship, Ole Miss ran on 57 snaps for 268 yards in a game that seemed a lot closer than the final 63-48 score would indicate. Take away the sacks (2 for -13 yards) and Ole Miss QB Matt Corral ran 12 times for 53 yards but he wasn’t the only one to put a dent in the Alabama defense. Both Snoop Conner (128) and Jerrion Ealy (120) ran for more than 100 yards.
And yet it wasn’t enough. Why? Because the Ole Miss defense, which did a marvelous impression of a sieve, gave up 723 yards, 417 through the air and 306 on the ground.
When the Gators faced Alabama in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta later on in 2020, the Gators managed only 54 yards on 26 rushing attempts, but that, too, is slightly deceptive. There were five sacks in the game for -19 yards, so the adjusted run stats were more like 21-73 and three TDs, better but still not exactly the kind of stats you associate with winning football. The Gators weren’t really out to fool anyone with their offense last year. The Gators essentially lined up against Alabama and sent everyone out for a pass. Kyle Trask threw for 408 yards and three touchdowns as Florida came the closest to beating Alabama, going down 52-46.
Through two games against outmatched opponents, Alabama has run for 152.5 yards per game, averaging just 4.24 yards per carry, which is actually less than the Gators averaged per carry (4.29) last season. Defensively, neither Miami nor Mercer has been able to move the ball consistently on the ground, averaging 79.5 yards per game and 2.37 yards per carry. Alabama got seven sacks for -37 yards in the two games.
Florida, meanwhile, has changed its offense dramatically. Kyle Trask could make all the throws but he wasn’t going to wow anyone with his feet. Quarterbacks Emory Jones (23-155, 1 TD) and Anthony Richardson (11-275, 2 TDs) have changed the dynamic of the UF offense with their ability to take off for big yardage. The Gators, who lead the nation, averaging 381.5 yards per game on the ground and a whopping 8.48 per carry, are a run first team this year. While so much attention is being paid to the quarterbacks, it should be noted that the running back quintet of Malik Davis, Dameon Pierce, Demarkcus Bowman, Nay’Quan Wright and Lorenzo Lingard have combined for 333 yards (5.9 per carry) and four touchdowns.
Defensively, the Gators are giving up 100.5 yards per game on the ground, an average of 2.58 per carry, supplemented by seven sacks for -41 yards.
Typically in SEC games, the team that runs the ball best wins, so who is going to get the job done on the ground for Saturday’s game at The Swamp (3:30 p.m., CBS) between the No. 1 Crimson Tide and the 9th-ranked Gators? In his preseason rankings, Phil Steele rated Alabama’s O-line best in the SEC and 6thnationally. Florida? Try 37th nationally and 7th in the SEC. Through two games, Florida’s offensive line has actually been more consistent but can the Gators rise to the occasion and turn in a strong game against Alabama’s vaunted front seven?
Expectations in the national media are that Alabama’s big offensive line will be able to grind it out between the tackles, particularly since Florida’s best tackler, linebacker Ventrell Miller will miss the game after surgery on Tuesday. Can Florida at least neutralize the Tide and hold them closer to 100 yards than their typical 150? And, can the Gators get the quarterbacks outside the tackles?
For Florida to have a chance at the upset, the Gators will have to play some defense with the offense by running the ball with some consistency to keep Alabama off the field. The best way to keep Alabama from grinding is to keep the ball away by keeping the chains moving.
STATISTICALLY SPEAKING: THE GATORS (National/SEC ranking) Scoring offense (36/6): 38.5 points per game Rushing offense (1/1): 381.5 yards per game (8.48 per carry)
Passing offense (66/12): 228.0 yards per game (7.6 per attempt) Total offense (3/1): 609.5 yards per game (8.13 per play) Third down conversions (Tie 29/Tie 4): 14-28 (50%)
Sacks allowed (Tie 5/Tie 1): 1 for -8 yards Scoring defense (40/6): 17 points per game Rushing defense (40/6): 100.5 yards per game (2.58 per carry) Passing defense (79/10): 224.5 yards per game (7.1 per attempt) Total defense (56/7): 325 yards per game (4.61 per play) Third down conversion defense (Tie 52/Tie 7): 10-29 (34.48%) Sacks (Tie 18/Tie 5): 7 for -41 yards
OVER, UNDER, AROUND AND THROUGH THE SEC
Alabama (2-0): Nick Saban says his players need to play better for redshirt freshman quarterback Bryce Young: “I keep saying this: how did the players around him play? That’s what I think we need to continue to improve on.”
Arkansas (2-0): Kirk Herbstreit on Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom following the Razorbacks’ 40-21 win over Texas: “I think Barry Odom is one of the best defensive coordinators, not just in the conference but in the country. They showed up in a bad mood and had them ready to go.”
Auburn (2-0): The challenge for the Auburn defense Saturday when the Tigers travel to Penn State is neutralizing quarterback Sean Clifford, who has thrown for more than 5,000 yards in his career including 39-62 for 477 yards and two touchdowns this year.
Georgia (2-0): Wide receiver Arian Smith, who left the UAB game with an injury in the third quarter, is expected to play against South Carolina Saturday … Wide receiver Dominick Blaylock, who is trying to come back from an ACL, has a hamstring injury which has set him back a bit … Kirby Smart says that LSU transfer tight end Arik Gilbert continues to work through personal issues and it is not known if he will be able to play this year.
Kentucky (2-0, 1-0 SEC): UK running back Kavosiey Smoke on the Wildcats feeling disrespected because they aren’t ranked: “It’s politics … if they don’t want to give us our respect now, we’re going to make them respect us later.”
LSU (1-1): Coach Oeaux on why LSU has to start getting its plays signaled in from the sideline faster: “We’re taking too long. We’re giving too much time for defenses to change, and we’re changing the play and they’re changing the play, so obviously that has to be re-tooled. That has to be re-thought how we’re doing things.”
Mississippi State (2-0): Through Mississippi State’s first two games, quarterback Will Rogers is 72-96 passing (75 percent) for 664 yards (6.9 per attempt) with five touchdowns and only one pick. Nine different receivers have already caught at least two passes.
Missouri (1-1, 0-1 SEC): Mizzou defensive coordinator on the Tigers’ allowing 519 yards in a 35-28 loss to Kentucky last Saturday: “I take full responsibility for the performance last week … wasn’t up to our standard. Not even close. I’ve got to do a better job.”
Ole Miss (2-0): The Ole Miss defense ranks 12th in the SEC and 76th nationally, but the stats show plenty of improvement. Last year when the Rebels gave up 519 yards per game, they allowed 6.67 yards per snap. This year, they’re giving up 364.5 yards per game and 4.58 per play.
South Carolina (2-0): The Gamecocks travel to Georgia Saturday night. HBC Shane Beamer on the roster Georgia’s Kirby Smart has assembled: “He may have, probably does have, the most talented football team in the history of Georgia football.”
Tennessee (1-1): There is a large statistical discrepancy between quarterbacks Joe Milton III and Hendon Hooker. Milton, who has started both games, is 18-35 (51.4 percent) for 189 yards (5.4 per attempt) with one TD. Hooker is 16-22 (72.7 percent) for 193 yards (8.8 per attempt) with two touchdowns and one interception.
Texas A&M (2-0): Defensive tackle McKinnley Jackson, who missed was suspended the first two games after an offseason arrest, will be back this weekend when the Aggies face New Mexico in a non-conference game.
Vanderbilt (1-1): The Commodores are dead last in the SEC in total offense (331.5 yards per game) and next to last in total defense (379.5 per game).
WHO SUCCEEDS CLAY HELTON AT SOUTHERN CAL? Now that Clay Helton is no longer gainfully employed by Southern Cal, there is a ton of speculation who will be the successor. Probably the best list I’ve seen was compiled by Pete Thamel of Yahoo Sports: (1) James Franklin, Penn State; (2) Bill O’Brien, Alabama (offensive coordinator); (3) Matt Campbell, Iowa State; (4) Luke Fickell, Cincinnati; (5) Mario Cristobal, Oregon; (6) P.J. Fleck, Minnesota; (7) Greg Schiano, Rutgers; (8) Tony Elliott, Clemson (offensive coordinator).
I like this list because of numbers one through four. I think James Franklin would definitely leave Penn State for Southern Cal. For all their success throughout the years, Penn State will always be considered the redheaded stepchild of the Big Ten because the Nittany Lions aren’t Big Ten originals and bluebloods like Ohio State and Michigan. Winning a national championship in the Big Ten is going to go through Columbus and Ann Arbor. He can win national championships at Southern Cal.
If Alabama wins a national championship with a dynamic offense then O’Brien’s stock will be off the charts. He’s worked for Bellichick, navigated Penn State through NCAA sanctions, been an NFL head coach and how he’s being power washed squeaky clean at St. Nick’s Rehab Center for Wayward Coaches. He might be seen as someone who can stop the prep quarterback exodus from California to points east.
Campbell might be too Midwest but if you can win at Iowa State you should be able to win big at Southern Cal. Fickell is the kind of coach who could make USC Tailback U once again.
As attractive as Mario Cristobal is to a school like Southern Cal, I can’t see Uncle Phil (Knight) losing him to a Pac-12 school. I think Uncle Phil gives Mario the full Nike treatment to keep him in Eugene. There are only two places I think Mario Cristobal would leave Oregon for – Miami (alma mater and home) and Alabama (Saban’s replacement; Mario was Nick’s O-line coach for several years).
More from the coaching front: Ross Dellenger of Sports Illustrated reports that Nebraska coach Scott Frost might not make it through December. “He won 12 games in his first three seasons, is now under NCAA investigation and, many feel, is likely to be fired by Christmas.” Nebraska is 2-1 this year but the Cornhuskers travel to No. 3 Oklahoma this weekend and still have games remaining with Michigan State, Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Iowa.
There are reports that Deon Sanders is already being mentioned as a potential Division I HBC for next season after leading Jackson State to a 2-0 start. Could he be on the Florida State radar? Former FSU wide receiver P.K. Sam tweeted out that an exceptional source told him the FSU locker room is “in shambles” following the Seminoles’ 20-17 loss to D1AA Jacksonville State on a last play Hail Mary. It was the first loss to a D1AA team in school history.
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The NCAA is expected to pass a temporary waiver next month that will allow Division I football programs to replenish up to seven scholarships each year lost through the transfer portal. This is in response to a rules change that allows players a one-time transfer without having to sit a year, something that led to a dramatic change in the number of players seeking a fresh start. The NCAA still hasn’t enacted any sort of roster management legislation since players who played in the COVID-19 season of 2020 were given an extra year of eligibility. Many schools are carrying close to or more than 100 scholarship players this year but coaches assume the roster max will revert back to 85 in 2022 unless some new legislation is enacted. The transfer waiver is expected to be permanent. Scholarship limits for Division I might be a thing of the past as the NCAA is expected to give Division I football a strong measure of autonomy in the future. So brace yourself. This is just the beginning of wholesale changes that are coming to college football. You may not recognize it in five years.
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