Thoughts of the day: September 19, 2022

A few thoughts to jump start your Monday morning:

IT’S CALLED “TROUBLE WITH THE ZONE”

Back in 2012, Clint Eastwood played the part of aging Major League Baseball scout Gus Zobel in the film “Trouble with the Curve.” For the past two weeks we’ve been watching a football takeoff on that movie that we could call “Trouble with the Zone.” This movie stars Florida QB Anthony Richardson and you can bet the farm that every one of the nine defensive coordinators remaining on Florida’s football schedule will watch it over and over again.

Richardson has struggled mightily in the passing game the past two weeks against Kentucky and USF, who have crowded the box with eight and nine defenders only to drop seven into coverage. In the last two games, Richardson is a combined 24-53 (45.2 percent) for 255 yards (4.8 yards per attempt) with zero touchdowns and four interceptions. After breaking out for 106 yards and three touchdowns in the game one win over Utah, Richardson has 13 carries for 28 yards in the last two games.

His confidence, sky high after the Utah win, seems to be waning significantly in the last two games. He has been holding the ball too long and too often has thrown into tight coverage. The hesitation to run has also been costly. We saw a 16-yard run against USF that looked like the Richardson who Utah couldn’t contain, but there were other opportunities to run the ball in which the gains were minimal.

The Gators desperately need a decisive Anthony Richardson if they’re going have a chance to win this week at Tennessee and the other eight games on the schedule after Saturday in Knoxville. There is no question the Gators are going to have to throw the football, so Billy Napier is going to have to come up with some wrinkles in the UF offense that can loosen up a zone with passes Richardson is capable of hitting early in the game. Adding some speed option that can get Richardson and running backs Montrell Johnson Jr., Trevor Etienne and Nay’Quan Wright out on the edge where they have only one man to beat might be a possibility as well.

The 18th-ranked Gators (2-1, 0-1 SEC) are 10-point underdogs for Saturday’s game in Knoxville against 11th-ranked Tennessee (3-0, 0-0 SEC). This is a game the Gators can win, but it’s going to take a confident Richardson and a ball control attack to do it. The Vols average nearly 80 offensive plays per game. Against South Florida, the Gators had only 48 offensive snaps. If UF snaps the ball only 48 times against Tennessee the Gators will be in for a long, long afternoon.

Associated Press top 25 poll: 1. Georgia 3-0; 2. Alabama 3-0; 3. Ohio State 3-0; 4. Michigan 3-0; 5. Clemson 3-0; 6. Oklahoma 3-0; 7. Southern California 3-0; 8. Kentucky 3-0; 9. Oklahoma State 3-0; 10. Arkansas; 11. Tennessee 3-0; 12. North Carolina State 3-0; 13. Utah 2-1; 14. Penn State 3-0; 15. Oregon 2-1; 16. Ole Miss 3-0; 17. Baylor 2-1; 18. Washington 3-0; 19. BYU; 20. FLORIDA 2-1; 21. Wake Forest 3-0; 22. Texas 2-1; 23. Texas A&M 2-1; 24. Pittsburgh 2-1; 25. Miami 2-1

AFCA Coaches top 25 poll: 1. Georgia 3-0; 2. Alabama 3-0; 3. Ohio State 3-0; 4. Michigan 3-0; 5. Clemson 3-0; 6. Oklahoma 3-0; 7. Southern California 3-0; 8. Oklahoma State 3-0; 9. Kentucky 3-0; 10. Arkansas 3-0; 11. North Carolina State 3-0; 12. Tennessee 3-0; 13. Ole Miss 3-0; 14. Utah 2-1; 15. Penn State 3-0; 16. Wake Forest 3-0; 17. Baylor 2-1; 18. Oregon 2-1; 19. Texas 2-1; 20. Texas A&M; 21. Michigan State 2-1; 22. FLORIDA 2-1; 23. BYU 2-1; 24. Washington 3-0; 25. Miami 2-1

Other University of Florida sports

Volleyball: Before the largest crowd in NCAA women’s volleyball history (16,833), the 16th-ranked Gators (8-2) took out 4th-ranked Wisconsin, last year’s NCAA champion, 25-21, 25-18, 26-28, 13-25, 15-13. Merrit Beason had a phenomenal night with 21 kills and freshman setter Alexis Stuckey had 45 assists. The Gators held Wisconsin to .115 hitting percentage behind 16 blocks, seven from Bre Kelly. The Gators will face Alabama at the O-Dome Wednesday in their SEC opener.

Men’s golf: Behind three consecutive rounds of 68 by Ricky Castillo, the Gators finished runner-up at the OFCC/Fighting Illini Invitational Tournament.

SEC football (AP rankings)

No. 2 Alabama (3-0, 0-0 SEC): Alabama paid Louisiana-Monroe $1.95 million to take a beating to which ULM coach Little Terry Bowden said, “They don’t know this but Alabama built us a weight room today by playing us.” Next week: vs. Vanderbilt (3-1, 0-0 SEC)

No. 10 Arkansas (3-0, 1-0 SEC): Arkansas didn’t take the lead in its 38-27 win over D1AA Missouri State until Bryce Stephens returned a punt 82 yards for a TD in the fourth quarter. Next week: vs. No. 23 Texas A&M (2-1, 0-0 SEC) in Arlington, TX

Auburn (2-1, 0-0 SEC): The Tigers’ 40-12 loss to Penn State has the buzzards circling over the football complex. Sunday, Paul Finebaum said, “It will no longer be, ‘Can Bryan Harsin survive?’ The questions now are, ‘Who will take his place?’” Next week: vs. Missouri (1-2)

No. 1 Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC): In calling Georgia “the new Alabama,” Paul Finebaum said the Bulldogs “look like the perfect team” … Arik Gilbert didn’t make the trip to Columbia for the South Carolina game. Kirby Smart said it was for “personal reasons.” Given his history at LSU prior to landing at Georgia, some are wondering about Gilbert’s mental health. Next week: vs. Kent State (1-2)

No. 8 Kentucky (3-0, 1-0 SEC): There is growing sentiment among Nebraska people to go hard and heavy after Mike Stoops as the replacement for Scott Frost. Stoops makes $6.75 million per year and his buyout is only $1.75 million. Next week: vs. Northern Illinois (1-2)

LSU (2-1, 1-0 SEC): Quarterback Jayden Daniels passed for 210 yards and a TD and ran for 93 and another TD in the Tigers’ 31-16 win over Mississippi State. Next week: vs. New Mexico (2-1)

Mississippi State (2-1, 0-1 SEC): Following the loss to LSU, HBC Mike Leach said, “Starting with me, we have to be more consistent.” Next week: vs. Bowling Green (1-2)

Missouri (2-1, 0-0 SEC): Despite giving up only three sacks and averaging 204 yards per game rushing, HBC Eli Drinkwitz is concerned about the offensive line. Following the win over Abilene Christian Drinkwitz said, “We’ve got to go back and find out what is the best five.” Next week: at Auburn (2-1, 0-0 SEC)

No. 16 Ole Miss (3-0, 0-0 SEC): Zach Evans (317 yards, 3 TDs) leads an Ole Miss rushing attack that is averaging 271.67 yards per game, which leads the SEC and ranks fifth nationally. Next week: vs. Tulsa (2-1)

South Carolina (1-2, 0-2 SEC): To reporter Phil Kornblut who asked if the Gamecocks are giving up after their 48-7 loss to Georgia, HBC Shane Beamer told Kornblut, “What kind of question is that … Get out of here, man!” Next week: vs. Charlotte (1-3)

No. 11 Tennessee (3-0): In the win over Akron, the Vols had 676 total yards with 438 through the air. QB Hendon Hooker has thrown for 844 yards and six TDs without a pick in three games so far. Next week: vs. No. 18 FLORIDA (2-1)

No. 23 Texas A&M (2-1, 0-0): The Aggies made the switch at QB to Max Johnson and got the win although the offense still is rather week after managing only 17 points and 264 yards in the win over Miami. Next week: vs. No. 10 Arkansas (3-0, 0-0 SEC) in Arlington, TX

Vanderbilt (3-1, 0-0 SEC): You have to go all the way back to 2011 for the last time the Commodores started the season 3-1. The giddiness won’t last long. The Commodores visit Tuscaloosa next Saturday. Next week: at No. 2 Alabama (3-0, 0-0 SEC)

Our SEC orphans in the Big 12

No. 6 Oklahoma (3-0): The Sooners are averaging 500.7 yards and 42.3 points per game. QB Dillon Gabriel has thrown for 759 yards and seven TDs without a pick. Next week: vs. Kansas State (2-1, 0-0 Big 12)

No. 22 Texas (2-1, 0-0 Big 12): Texas spent $280,000 for a recruiting weekend that included Arch Manning and seven other players. Next week: at Texas Tech (2-1, 0-0 Big 12)

Football played elsewhere beside the SEC

Arizona State (2-1): It was only a matter of time before Herm Edwards joined the Extinct Species List. Herm was 26-20 during his tenure at ASU, but he was done in by the men in blue suits. The NCAA hammer will drop hard on the Sun Devils because of quite a few rules bent to the breaking point by Edwards and his assistants. Prime candidate to replace Edwards is former Houston and Texas HBC Tom Herman.

Nebraska (1-3): Scott Frost was fired last Sunday. A week later, defensive coordinator Erik Chinander got the axe. The Huskers are 114th nationally in total defense.

UCLA (3-0): The Bruins have opened the season with three home games that have drawn a combined 90,214. The capacity is 92,542.

No. 15 Oregon (2-1): Oregon issued an apology to BYU after students began chanting “F#%* the Mormons” during Saturday’s 40-21 win by the Ducks in Eugene.

No. 25 Miami (2-1): The Hurricanes lost to the same Texas A&M team that was dominated the week before by Appalachian State. That might be the last game Miami loses until November 19 when the Hurricanes travel to Clemson. It’s not that Miami is very good. Fact is the Hurricanes are not but the ACC is that weak. The Hurricanes were overrated to begin the season, they’re overrated now at No. 25 nationally and no matter what they do between now and November 19 they will still be overrated.

Kansas (3-0): The Jayhawks are 3-0 for the first time since 2009. They’ve beaten West Virginia and Houston on the road and they’re good enough to go to the school’s first bowl game since 2008. Expect to hear HBC Lance Leipold’s name mentioned with any big time opening (see Nebraska, see Arizona State, probably Auburn). If Kansas is smart, they’ll back up a Brinks Truck to keep him.

ONE FINAL PITHY: What we have seen in the first three weeks of the college football season is the exact reason we need a 12 or 16 team College Football Playoff and why we do NOT need to pare Division I down a couple of super conferences for an NFL-like model. Take a look at the Fun Belt as exhibit one. Appalachian State took down the mighty Aggies in College Station. Marshall went to South Bend to knock off Notre Dame and then promptly lost to Bowling Green. Georgia Southern beat Nebraska in Lincoln which was the last straw for Scott Frost. Old Dominion beat Virginia Tech and almost took out Virginia. UCLA needed a field goal as time expired to beat South Alabama. Louisiana beat Eastern Michigan by 28 points, the same Eastern Michigan that beat Arizona State to help show Herm Edwards the exit.

An argument could be made that it’s still early in the season and none of these upsets could happen against good teams in November, but that is the same silly argument that was used when the NCAA expanded the basketball tournament first to 48 teams and then to 64. Now, it’s true that we still haven’t had some unknown team from an obscure conference win the NCAA Tournament, but Butler, VCU and Loyola made it fun and someday, somehow, Gonzaga will finally win a title.

In the 12-team model the six highest rated conference champs will make the playoff. If the playoff goes to 16, there are arguments that we could have 10 conference champs and six at-large teams. I’m good with either model. We’ll probably wind up with one of the usual suspects winning it all, but I like the idea of Cinderella.