Thoughts of the Day: September 22, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Wednesday morning:

DAN MULLEN’S THEORY OF NATURAL SELECTION

It was the night of October 15, 2005. After a miserable plane ride from Baton Rouge to Gainesville following Florida’s 19-17 loss to LSU, the offensive staff convened at Urban Meyer’s home and worked into the wee hours re-tooling the offense that wasn’t working with personnel that had been recruited to Florida by Ron Zook to run a pro-style attack. The spread option offense that was so dazzling at Utah with Alex Smith at quarterback just didn’t work with Chris Leak.

“It didn’t quite fit the personnel that was here at this time, so you take a step back and say, hmmm, how do we adjust what we’re doing to make sure it fits the personnel that we have?” Dan Mullen said Monday. Mullen was Meyer’s offensive coordinator in those days. There was still some trial and error involved but by the time the season ended with a win over Iowa in the Outback Bowl, the Gators had won four of their last five games to finish the season 9-3.

The offense was tweaked again for 2006. Leak was still a pocket passer, but Tim Tebow could run so a hybrid, two-quarterback system evolved and the Gators won a national championship. Consider what happened those two years as the beginning of Dan Mullen’s Theory of Natural Selection, which, like Darwin’s Theory has everything to do with adapting to your changing surroundings or die.

Never has Mullen’s ability to adapt an offense been more evident than his time at Florida. The Gators have gone from an almost perfectly balanced attack (213.5 passing; 213.15 rushing) in 2018 to pass heavy in 2019-20 (300.8 in 2019; 378.6 in 2020) to the current offense that ranks second nationally in rushing (335.67 yards per game, 7.57 per carry). The 2018 team featured a quarterback in Feleipe Franks who offered the threat of the run while the 2019-20 teams took advantage of a deadly accurate passer in Kyle Trask and future NFL receivers such as Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney, Van Jefferson and Freddie Swain.

With all those guys gone to the NFL, Mullen has adapted once again. A year ago, the Gators threw the ball 56 percent of the time. This year, with dual threat quarterbacks Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson plus a loaded running backs room that features Malik Davis, Dameon Pierce and Nay’Quan Wright, it’s a 60-40 ratio working well enough that the Gators bludgeoned Alabama for 258 yards on the ground (6.0 per carry) and four rushing TDs.

“The worst thing I can say as a coach is I have a great system but it doesn’t fit the players that we have so I guess it won’t work,” Mullen said. “Ours is to always make sure it has enough adaptability within the system to make sure it fits whatever our personnel is at a given time.”

The system has adapted to the personnel on hand so well that the No. 11 Gators (2-1, 0-1 SEC) are 19.5-point favorites for Saturday’s game (7 p.m., ESPN) with Tennessee (2-1) at The Swamp. This isn’t last year’s offense, but it doesn’t have to be. It’s the offense that best fits what Mullen has to work with this year.

OVER, UNDER, AROUND AND THROUGH THE SEC Alabama (3-0, 1-0 SEC): Quandarrius Robinson, who was arrested for DUI in August, has returned from suspension.

Arkansas (3-0): For the Razorbacks to go 4-0, QB KJ Jefferson (39-63 passing, 61.9 percent; 632 yards, 10.0 per attempt) will have to have a big game going against Texas A&M’s pass defense, which is No. 1 nationally.

Auburn (2-1): For all the talk about how Bo Nix has improved, HBC Bryan Harsin admitted Tuesday that the downfield passing game is lacking. “You have to have more explosives,” Harsin said. Nix averaged 8.8 yards per completion against Penn State and is averaging just 11.3 per completion in three games.

Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC): Brad Nessler, the play-by-play announcer for CBS, isn’t sold on Georgia or QB JT Daniels. “I’m not sure about Georgia yet,” Nessler said on the McElroy and Cubelic radio show. “I’m still in a wait-and-see deal … I’m more impressed with Florida.” Regarding Daniels, Nessler said, “Who did he beat?”

Kentucky (3-0, 1-0 SEC): Chris Rodriguez Jr. leads the SEC in rushing with 378 yards (6.41 per carry) and three touchdowns. As a team, the Wildcats rank 6th in the league in rushing (196 yards per game, 5.2 per carry).

LSU (2-1): With edge rusher Andre Anthony out for the season with an ACL, LSU will go with Ali Gaye and Maason Smith at the position with some help from B.J. Ojulari.

Mississippi State (2-1): The Bulldogs rank 7th nationally in passing offense (361 yards per game, 6.6 per attempt) but dead last (130th) in rushing offense (45.33 yards per game, 2.72 per carry).

Missouri (2-1, 0-1 SEC): Missouri is third in the SEC (513.7 yards per game, 7.1 per play) in total offense (17th nationally) but dead last (456 yards per game, 6.61 per play) in total defense (115th nationally).

Ole Miss (3-0): Much was made of Matt Corral throwing 11 of his 14 interceptions in two games last year. Obviously, he’s learned a couple of things since then. Corral hasn’t thrown a pick in 150 pass attempts. This year he’s 66-96 (68.8 percent) for 1,006 yards (10.5 per attempt) and nine TDs.

South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC): Luke Doty will be the starting quarterback Saturday against Kentucky. Doty completed 13-26 passes for 153 yards and a TD with one pick last week against Georgia after missing the first two games due to a foot injury … Wide receiver Xavier Leggett is questionable Saturday after suffering minor injuries in a traffic accident.

Tennessee (2-1): Outside linebacker Byron Young, who was ineligible for the Vols’ first two games, will

Texas A&M (3-0): The Aggies are 9th nationally in total defense, giving up 239.3 yards per game (3.64 per play). The Aggies give up 162 yards per game on the ground, but so far teams have managed only 77.3 yards per game through the air (3.0 per attempt) with zero touchdown passes.

Vanderbilt (1-2): Running back Re’Mahn Davis is out for the season with a toe injury that has required surgery. Davis was the team’s leading rusher with 211 yards.

A COUPLE OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL NOTES … There are 34 unbeaten teams remaining in Division I and nine that have yet to pick up a win. The number of unbeatens will be reduced by at least five this week as there are five matchups between 3-0 teams highlighted by No. 7 Texas A&M and No. 16 Arkansas in Arlington, Texas. Winless UConn has a chance to become the first 0-5 team in the country when unbeaten Wyoming (3-0) comes to Storrs. Wyoming is a 29.5-point favorite.

Clemson (2-1) ranks 114th nationally in total offense at 322.7 yards per game (4.82 yards per play). The Tigers are 93rd in rushing (134 yards per game, 4.02 per carry) and 101st in passing (188.7 per game, 5.6 per attempt). The Tigers averaged 502.3 yards per game (6.69 per play) in 2020 and 528.7 per game in 2019 (7.38 per play). Ohio State (2-1) ranks 9th nationally in total offense (538.3 yards per game, 8.12 per play) but 118th in total defense (471.3 yards per game, 6.15 per play). It is amazing that the Associated Press has both of them (Clemson No. 9, Ohio State No. 10) ranked ahead of Florida.

COUNTDOWN TO FIRING DAY: WEEK THREE Extinct Species List

Les Miles: Should we send out a team of St. Bernards on a search and rescue to see if he’s even alive? We haven’t heard a peep from him since he got fired. Randy Edsall: Not only has he been fired, but the athletic director is cleaning house and has told every UConn assistant there will be six months severance when the season is over.

Clay Helton, Southern Cal: If he does go to Tuscaloosa for a couple of years in the recycling bin at St. Nick’s Rehab Center for Wayward Coaches, he will have to squeeze by on the more than $10 million Southern Cal had to spend to fire him.

On Life Support

Scot Loeffler, Bowling Green: He’s 1-2 thanks to that win over D1AA Murray State. Now he takes a paycheck beating against Minnesota. He needs five wins in MAC play to remain gainfully employed.

Scott Frost, Nebraska: They will be splendidly happy if he can find a way to eight wins this year which would save them the embarrassment of having to fire one of their living legends from his playing days. He scared the bejabbers out of Oklahoma in Norman last week. Could he pull off a win at Michigan State Saturday?

Walt Bell, UMass: The Minutemen are 0-3 and a 36-point road dog at Coastal Carolina. Bell was Willie Taggart’s offensive coordinator at FSU for one year. Things must have really been bad to leave FSU for one of the ultimate dead end jobs in all of college football.

Tom Arth, Akron: This is will take a beating for a paycheck week. The Mighty Zips play Ohio State in the Horseshoe where they are 49-point dogs. Last week the Zips made sure they won’t oh-fer the season when they beat something called Bryant, a Rhode Island powerhouse from the Northeast Conference.

Endangered Species List Ed Orgeron, LSU: The Tigers lost to Mississippi State last year in Tiger Stadium and Saturday they’ll be in StarkVegas. Lose a second straight year and Coach Oeaux might start feeling a bit more heat. The NCAA and Title IX are making life rather uncomfortable.

Dino Babers, Syracuse: The Orange are a surprising 2-1 but Saturday they play Liberty and Malik Willis. Dino needs six wins but the only remaining winnable game looks like Florida State.

Chip Kelly, UCLA: The Chipster had them believing until Fresno State beat the Bruins in the final 14 seconds. He desperately needs to escape from Stanford with a win Saturday.

Thomas Hammock, Northern Illinois: Northern Ill has given up 113 points in the last two weeks so getting a week off is what the doctor ordered. The Huskies get D1AA Maine next week so they’ll have a chance to even their record at 2-2 but Hammock needs 5-6 wins to survive.

Dana Dimmel, UTEP: UTEP has had a week to work out the kinks after getting hosed by Boise State up on the Smurf Turf. They’re 2-1, which is a shock, and could go 3-1 this week if they can stick it to Los Lobos de Nuevo Mexico. If reality doesn’t set in, the Miners could actually get to 5-6 wins this year which would keep Dimmel employed.

Phil Montgomery, Tulsa: For three quarters Tulsa had Ohio State on the ropes at the Horseshoe. Then came the fourth quarter and everything collapsed. Can playing the Buckeyes tight on the road give the alums the warm and fuzzies about Phil?

Steve Addazio, Colorado State: The bad news is the Fighting Addazios go to Iowa this weekend. The good news is Iowa is only 119th nationally in total offense so the final score might not be so bad. The Mountain West schedule can’t get here quick enough for Colorado State.

Checking for a pulse Geoff Collins, Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are playing really great defense. The problem is the offense stinks. The schedule has maybe two winnable games remaining.

Marcus Arroyo, UNLV: The Running Rebels are averaging 15.3 points per game. Opponents are averaging 40. There is a really good chance Tate Martell will be at QB this week.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The College Football Playoff Management Committee will meet today near Dallas to discuss expanding the playoff from four to 12 teams. The Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC commissioners have basically aligned themselves against the 12-team proposal because they are afraid of the big bad Southeastern Conference. They are dumb to oppose expanding the playoff because the SEC will dominate whether it’s four or 12 teams. The only difference is they’ll be cutting themselves out of millions in broadcast rights money to stay at four. What they need to do is go into this meeting determined to get the votes they need to include Fox Sports and other networks in the broadcast rights conversation. To sell out to ESPN without giving other networks a shot at forming some sort of broadcasting coalition (it works in the NCAA Basketball Tournament with CBS and Turner; the NBA with ESPN and Turner; in MLB with ESPN and Fox) could mean leaving millions of dollars on the table at a time when no one can afford it. The current 4-team model pays each Power Five conference $66 million a year. The 12-team expanded playoff is estimated to bring each of the power leagues somewhere between $200-300 million. So if they want to argue about including other networks in the discussion, fine, but if they want to survive financially, they better not walk away from expanding the playoff to 12 teams.