Thoughts of the Day: September 22, 2027
A few thoughts to jump start your Tuesday afternoon:
Have you taken the time to notice the similarity? If you are old enough and you remember 1984, then you probably recall a certain No. 12, a walk-on from tiny Mayo (population 1,055) where dairy cows outnumber people probably 10-1. Kerwin Bell became Florida’s starter by default when Dale Dorminey suffered a torn ACL in practice just prior to the season-opener in Tampa with 1983 national champ Miami in the Big Sombrero. All he did was lead the Gators to a 9-1-1 record, SEC Player of the Year and an SEC championship that was stripped away in the spring by a vote of the league’s presidents. In 1985, Kerwin led the Gators to a second straight 9-1-1 record, which again was best in the SEC, but NCAA sanctions made them ineligible for the championship. Despite the harsh sanctions, the Gators went 12-11 the next two years, quite an achievement considering the depleted roster. Kerwin took a beating those last two seasons but delivered some memorable wins including a heart stopping 18-17 comeback against No. 5 Auburn.
Future Gator quarterbacks put up Star Wars numbers and two – Danny Wuerffel and Tim Tebow – won Heisman trophies, but those who saw him play have always found a place among Florida’s greatest quarterbacks of all-time for Kerwin Bell.
So here we are some 42 years later and the Gators are off to a 3-0 start, 1-0 in the SEC after a 44-39 win on the road at Auburn last week. Florida’s starting quarterback is Aaron Philo, a small town kid from Bogart, Georgia (population 1,340), a place where everybody knows his name. A third-year player who spent years one and two at Georgia Tech, Philo also wears No. 12 and just like Kerwin, a mustache is sprouting on his upper lip.
The similarities extend beyond small town upbringing and facial hair. Just like Kerwin Bell, Aaron Philo has a remarkable capacity for processing information on the fly and translating it into productive plays. Decision-making was always at the top of Kerwin Bell’s list of intangibles and it is the exact reason why Philo beat out Tramell Jones Jr. for the starting job at Florida in August. Philo sees the field, makes a snap decision and gets the ball where it needs to be. Through three games he is 47-64 passing for 721 yards (11.3 per attempt, 5th best nationally) and six touchdowns. He has two interceptions, neither his fault since both were catchable passes deflected by Florida receivers into the hands of opponents. He has run for two touchdowns.
In Kerwin Bell’s first season as the Florida QB, the Gators were a run first team that featured three future No. 1 draft picks at running back – Neal Anderson, John L. Williams and Lorenzo Hampton – running behind one of the two or three greatest offensive lines in the history of the SEC. The Gators ran the ball so well that Bell only threw 184 passes in 11 games (completed 98) for 16 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. It’s not like the Gators lacked explosive wide receivers since Ricky Nattiel, Ray McDonald, Frankie Neal and Gary Rolle all went on to play in the NFL, but one of the reasons they were usually wide open had everything to do with the bodies that had to be committed to stop the UF run game.
Because Jadan Baugh has emerged as perhaps the top running back in the country – 54-458, eight touchdowns so far – Philo doesn’t have to win games with his arm. Baugh is such a threat in the running game with runs of 75, 61, 53, 33 and 25 yards that Philo hasn’t been forced into throw every down situations. Philo has shown he can throw the deep ball but his forte seems to be that 14-17-yard intermediate range pass that keeps the safeties from hedging into the box for run support.
Offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner has turned first down into a money down throwing the football. Philo is 22-25 on first down passes for 335 yards and four touchdowns. Thirteen of his first down passes have moved the chains for a first down with eight passes completed for 15 or more yards, another four for +25. Early down success has required few third-and-long yardage situations. Philo has thrown only 11 third down passes (6 completions, 89 yards).
In his first road game against an SEC opponent, Philo got the win with a very efficient performance while outdueling Auburn’s Byrum Brown. Saturday, the stakes are higher as Florida’s opponent at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is No. 4 Ole Miss, led by Trinidad Chambliss, whose first three games have turned him into the odds-on Heisman favorite. Chambliss has a story almost as compelling as that of Kerwin Bell. Almost unknown out of high school, Chambliss went the small school route to Ferris State where it wasn’t until his fourth year that he emerged as a star while leading his team to the Division II national championship. A year ago this time he was the backup at Ole Miss who became the starter when Austin Simmons went down with an injury and led the Rebels to within a final drive against Miami of making the College Football Playoff championship game. In three games this year, Chambliss has wins over No. 16 Louisville and No. 10 LSU. The LSU win vaulted Ole Miss to No. 4 nationally and very much into the early discussion for a national championship.
Florida is a surprising 3-point favorite for Saturday’s game (3:30 p.m., ABC). Perhaps it is due to the Ben Hill Griffin Stadium mystique. The Gators have been road kill for most of the years since Urban Meyer hung up his Florida whistle after the 2010 season, but they have remained formidable at home. The idea that the No. 21 Gators could spring the upset over Chambliss and the Rebels is seen as a home field advantage factor. The idea that Florida might be favored because a Kerwin Bell clone could be the difference-maker probably seems to be a reach for a Tuesday.
That might not be the case when the clock at BHG flatlines at 00:00 Saturday evening.
ELSEWHERE IN THE SEC
No. 8 Alabama (3-0, 1-0 SEC): After taking a step backward against Kentucky, true freshman quarterback Keelon Russell rebounded with a 3-touchdown, 320-yard passing effort while leading a come from behind win over Florida State. He will be going against a bend but don’t break South Carolina pass defense Saturday that allows only 6.2 yards per attempt. Saturday: vs. South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC)
Arkansas (1-2, 0-1 SEC): The Razorbacks can’t run the ball (75.33 yards per game). They need a get well game but Saturday they go against a Tulsa team that gives up only 102 yards a game on the ground. Saturday: vs. Tulsa (3-0)
Auburn (2-1, 0-1 SEC): The Tigers have to re-work the offensive line after giving up 13 sacks for -60 yards in three games. The Tigers also have issues with their own pass rush that has generaged only seven sacks. Saturday: vs. Vanderbilt (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
No. 2 Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC): Leading rusher Nate Frazier seems likely to play Saturday against Oklahoma. Banged up in the win over Arkansas, Frazier is averaging 8.42 yards per carry and has five rushing touchdowns. Oklahoma allows only 111 yards per game and 2.85 per carry. Saturday: vs. Oklahoma (2-1, 0-1 SEC)
Kentucky (2-1, 1-1 SEC): The Wildcats are dead last in the SEC and 134th nationally in third down conversions (7-31). Defensively, they are dead last in the SEC and No. 129 nationally in opponents’ third down conversions (22-43). Saturday: vs. South Alabama (2-1)
No. 10 LSU (2-1, 0-1 SEC): LSU is an 8.5-point favorite to beat Texas A&M at Tiger Stadium Saturday night in what amounts to an early season elimination game. The loser will be off to an 0-2 start in SEC play and likely out of the College Football Playoff picture. Saturday: vs. No. 24 Texas A&M (2-1, 0-1 SEC)
No. 23 Mississippi State (3-0, 1-0 SEC): The Bulldogs are 6.5-point favorites against Missouri. It is the first time Mississippi State has been ranked in the top 25 and matched against another top 25 team since 2017 when Dan Mullen was the coach and the opponent was No. 1 Alabama. Saturday: vs. No. 19 Missouri (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
No. 19 Missouri (3-0, 0-0 SEC): Missouri’s pass defense has held opponents to fewer than 50 percent completions and just 5.9 yards per attempt while picking off three passes. Saturday they have to go against Mississippi State’s Kamario Taylor, who has thrown 11 touchdown passes and is averaging 10.1 yards per attempt. Saturday: at No. 23 Mississippi State
Oklahoma (2-1, 0-0 SEC): The Sooners have the 9th-best defense in the country (215.33 yards per game) and the worst offense in the Southeastern Conference (329 yards, 25 points per game). Saturday: at No. 2 Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC)
No. 4 Ole Miss (3-0, 1-0 SEC): The health of running back Kewan Lacy is a major concern for Saturday’s game in The Swamp against Florida. Lacy’s value goes well beyond running the football. He’s a fierce pass protector. Is backup JT Lindsey capable of picking up blitzes and EDGE rushers? Saturday: at No. 21 FLORIDA (3-0, 1-0 SEC)
South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC): The Gamecocks will be going against an Alabama run defense that gives up only 53 yards per game and 1.79 per carry. That puts plenty of pressure on LaNorris Sellers to avoid throwing interceptions. He’s thrown three so far, two last week in critical situations in the loss to Mississippi State. Saturday: at No. 8 Alabama (3-0, 1-0 SEC)
No. 14 Tennessee (3-0, 0-0 SEC): A key for the Vols Saturday will be affecting Texas QB Arch Manning. Through three games the Vols are third nationally in sacks (13) and they have been credited with 15 quarterback hurries. Saturday: vs. No. 1 Texas (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
No. 1 Texas (3-0, 0-0 SEC): The challenge this week is stopping a Tennessee offense that is averaging 510.3 yards and 47.7 points per game. The Longhorns haven’t allowed a touchdown in five straight quarters. Last week UTSA managed two field goals and just 142 total yards. Texas is a 5.5-point favorite Saturday against 14th-ranked Tennessee on the road in Knoxville. Saturday: at No. 14 Tennessee (3-0, 0-0 SEC)
No. 24 Texas A&M (2-1, 0-1 SEC): There are concerns about quarterback Marcel Reed, who has thrown three interceptions and is averaging only 6.1 yards per pass attempt. One CBS Sports analyst claims Reed is the worst quarterback in the SEC. Saturday: at No. 10 LSU (2-1, 0-1 SEC)
Vanderbilt (3-0, 0-0 SEC): The Commodores rank fourth nationally in sacks (12). Saturday they go against an Auburn offensive line that has allowed 13, which is dead last in the country. Saturday: at Auburn (2-1, 0-1 SEC)
ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: The ongoing soap opera that is Florida State University football has entered a Wizard of Oz phase. First off is the problem of Mike Norvell, his more than $50 million in buyout money and the fact the Seminoles are highly unlikely to post a winning record this year. Secondly, there is Jimbo Fisher, who won a national championship as the FSU head coach in 2013. He lives in Tallahassee, squeezing by somehow on the $75 million Texas A&M paid him in a lump sum to agree not to coach the Aggies ever again. Jimbo, it seems, has a pair of garnet and gold slippers that he’s ready to don and click together while chanting “there’s no place like home! There’s no place like home!”
Jimbo wants to return to FSU and FSU is at least exploring the opportunity. Whether it happens or not probably is in the hands of Jimmy Sexton, Fisher’s agent. Known for striking hard, unbreakable deals, Sexton is the one who not only negotiated the 10-year deal that got Fisher to leave FSU for Aggieland in the first place, but the contract that got the huge lump sum buyout without any mitigation.
If Jimbo were willing to be the FSU head coach for $1-2 million per year while directing the $4-5 million it would normally take to hire a head coach to the assistant coach/NIL pool, this might be a do-able deal. FSU would still have to pony up the buyout money for Norvell but the cost of hiring a new coach would be reduced by millions since Jimbo already has a semi-palatial home in Tallahassee. Would Jimmy Sexton be willing to negotiate such a creative deal and allow Fisher to take a job that pays less than Florida pays offensive coordinator Buster Faulkner? If Sexton can deal with it then FSU may have found a way out of the Norvell debacle.
That leaves FSU with a decision to make. Jimbo is certainly an upgrade to Norvell, but even getting him on a K-Mart Blue Light Special may not work if they can’t hold enough bake sales and car washes to buy out Norvell. Do they roll the dice and fire Norvell on the belief they can raise the funds for the buyout or do they bite the bullet and keep Norvell one more year?
Comments