Thoughts of the Day: September 24, 2025

A few thoughts to jump start your Friday morning:

There was a time when Florida-Tennessee was the hottest college football ticket in the nation. In all but one year from 1992-2001, the winner of the Florida-Tennessee game represented the SEC East in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game. During that 10-year span, the SEC East championship went to Florida seven times with the Gators winning the SEC championship five times. Florida played for the national championship in 1995 and won it in 1996. Tennessee, which won the SEC in 1997-98, played for the national title in 1997 and the national championship in 1998.

This was a real rivalry in those days but no longer. The Gators had a 5-year pocket of championship level football from 2005-09, but from 2010-17 the Florida program fell on hard times. Since Dan Mullen arrived back in 2018, the Gators have been re-establishing themselves as a team to be reckoned with on the national scene, but the last SEC/national championship year was 2008.

Still, that’s far superior to what has happened at Tennessee, which has had a revolving door of coaches (five) since Phil Fulmer was fired after the 2008 season. Against their three main rivals – Florida, Georgia and Alabama – the Vols are a combined 4-32 since 2008 (Alabama 0-12, Florida 1-11, Georgia 3-9). Since 2005, the Vols are 1-15 against the Gators.

Tennessee’s lack of success against UF is no reason for the 11th-ranked Gators (2-1, 0-1 SEC) to take the Vols (2-1) lightly Saturday when they come to The Swamp (7 p.m., ESPN). Despite last week’s loss to No. 1 Alabama, every goal the Gators began the season with except one – an unbeaten season – is achievable. If the Gators win their next seven games, all against SEC opponents, they’ll be playing in the Southeastern Conference Championship Game in Atlanta in December. Lose to Tennessee or any other SEC team on the schedule and the Gators can all but kiss their dream of a league championship good-bye.

The keys to a Florida win Saturday are quite simple: (1) Dominate the line of scrimmage; (2) play turnover free; and (3) play the entire game with the same kind of intensity the Gators played with in the final three quarters against Alabama.

By dominating the line of scrimmage, the Gators not only control the football but they play a bit of defense with their offense. What we’ve seen in the first three games is a team that is very comfortable in ground and pound offense. The Gators can keep the chains moving and wear down opponents thanks to an offensive line that has bludgeoned three straight opponents, one of which was Alabama. The Crimson Tide gave up four scoring drives of 75 yards and one of 99 against Alabama with most of the yardage picked up with a running game that averaged 6.0 per carry. The Gators are running the ball so well with quarterback options and the three-headed running back monster of Dameon Pierce (110 yards, 6.1 per carry, 5 TDs), Malik Davis (212 yards, 6.84 per carry, 2 TDs) and Nay’Quan Wright (99 yards, 5.82 per carry) is keeping former 5-star backs Lorenzo Lingard and Demarkcus Bowman on the bench. When the Gators are driving the ball and keeping the clock moving, it keeps the defense off the field. The Vols aren’t going to score many points if they don’t possess the football. Tennessee’s defense is giving up only 54.33 yards per game on the ground (1.7 per carry) but they have yet to play a team that runs the ball well and certainly they haven’t played a team with an offensive line as physical as Florida’s or running backs this good.

After a pair of 2-interception games in the first two, the Gators only had one turnover against Alabama, none in the final three quarters. Emory Jones (231 rushing yards, 5.5 per carry, 2 TDs; 459 passing yards, 63.6 percent completions) got into a rhythm against Alabama and began to show the kind of growth and maturity that it takes to be a winning quarterback in the SEC. If he protects the football against the Vols, it’s going to be hard for the Gators to lose this game.

Finally, there can be no letup in intensity. Just because the Gators showed they can go toe-to-toe with the likes of Alabama is no reason to think Tennessee will be a walkover. The Vols are quite aware of their dismal record against UF so they will be playing with an edge. It’s up to Dan Mullen and his assistants to make sure the Gators are in a take no prisoners mood from start to finish.

This is no time for the Gators to play down to their competition and to lose to Tennessee would mean playing at the Vols’ level, which isn’t very good. The Vols will try to go tempo on the Florida defense to wear them down and they’ll stack the box to force Emory Jones to throw the ball to beat them. The best way to blow that game plan apart is to keep the UT defense on the field by keeping the chains moving with quick, easy throws and option runs by Jones since it’s tough to account for the QB running in Dan Mullen’s offensive scheme. Florida is a 19-point favorite and the Gators should indeed win this game by three or more touchdowns. If the Gators can move out to a big lead with Jones at QB, it might be tempting for Mullen to give Anthony Richardson another week off to allow his tender hamstring to heal with Kentucky on the road next week. The Sayer says sooth: FLORIDA 41, Tennessee 14

THE SEC SOOTHSAYER Southern Miss (1-2) at No. 1 Alabama (3-0): The oddsmakers in Las Vegas must believe Nick Saban wasn’t happy with the Crimson Tide’s effort last week against Florida because they’re expecting Alabama to absolutely destroy Southern Miss. The line is 45 points. Saban has this habit of using practice the week after what he deems a disappointing effort to drive home a point. The final score will tell us if this was a lesson learned. The Sayer says sooth: Alabama 52, Southern Miss 3

No. 2 Georgia (3-0, 1-0 SEC) at Vanderbilt (1-2): Figure there will be a sellout crowd at Vanderbilt Stadium although 60 percent of the fans will be clad in Georgia red. Georgia is favored to win this one by 35 points. What? Are the Vegas oddsmakers thinking Kirby Smart will feel sorry for the Commodores? Georgia will win big and will probably have JT Daniels in the game and throwing deep into the game to get ready for the 4-game gauntlet ahead of No. 16 Arkansas, (at) No. 23 Auburn, Kentucky and No. 11 Florida. The Sayer says sooth: Georgia 49, Vanderbilt 3

No. 7 Texas A&M (3-0) vs. No. 16 Arkansas (3-0) in Arlington, TX: The Aggies are a shaky 4.5-point favorite. Is that because no one trusts their offense with Zach Calzada at QB or does it have to do with Sam Pittman rebuilding the Arkansas program at a pace far faster than anyone anticipated. The Aggies have to run the football against a Barry Odom defense that has been surprisingly good. If Arkansas is to win, quarterback KJ Jefferson can’t throw interceptions and he’s going to have to pick up decent yardage with his feet when protection breaks down. This one has white knuckles written all over it. The Sayer says sooth: Texas A&M 24, Arkansas 21

Georgia State (1-2) at No. 23 Auburn (2-1): This is just what the doctor ordered for Auburn after losing a very winnable game last week at Penn State. With a roadie to LSU and a homer with Georgia the next two weeks, Bryan Harsin needs the Tigers to put Georgia State out of its misery early. Auburn is a 27-point favorite. If it isn’t worse than that, then the Tigers are overrated. The Sayer says sooth: Auburn 45, Georgia State 14

LSU (2-1) at Mississippi State (2-1): LSU found a way to lose to Mississippi State at Tiger Stadium last year. This year the Tigers will face the Wrath of the Cowbell in Starkvegas. Neither team can really run the ball, so we might see more than 100 passes launched. LSU has better athletes and more of them, which is probably why the Tigers are 2.5-point favorites. This one just feels like an upset. The Sayer says sooth: Mississippi State 34, LSU 31

Missouri (2-1, 0-1 SEC) at Boston College (3-0): Mizzou HBC Eli Drinkwitz has spent the last few weeks trying to walk back comments that the Boston College people took as disparaging. Now he has to face a BC team that runs the ball quite well (202.33 yards per game, 5.14 per carry). That would be a concern since Mizzou was gouged for 333 yards by Kentucky a couple of weeks ago except that BC hasn’t exactly played anyone decent (Colgate, UMass and Shirley Temple) and the Eagles are without their stud QB Phil Jurkovec who’s done for the year. Mizzou is a 1.5-point favorite. It should be worse than that. Much worse. The Sayer says sooth: Missouri 41, Boston College 24

Kentucky (3-0, 1-0 SEC) at South Carolina (2-1, 0-1 SEC): Was Kentucky playing down to its competition last week (28-23 win over D1AA Chattanooga) or are the Wildcats just not that good? With Florida, LSU and Georgia their next three games, the Wildcats really need to put a complete game together. South Carolina isn’t very good but the Gamecocks are only a 5-point dog at home. Something just doesn’t feel right about this one although it’s hard to imagine Kentucky losing. The Sayer says sooth: Kentucky 30, South Carolina 21

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Here is what bugs me the most about the Three Stooges (Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren, Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff and ACC commissioner Jim Phillips), who have found it convenient to avoid talking about the fact that if Texas and Oklahoma had called them, they would have rushed to expand their conferences. Instead of admitting Greg Sankey only did what they had done if only they had been contacted, they’re trying to exact a measure of revenge with this silly three-conference alliance that isn’t going to prove anything and by forcing a delay in getting the College Football Playoff expanded. If these three actually had brains, they would probably take them out and play with them.

At the heart of the matter, the Big Ten and Pac-12 have media contracts that are about to expire while the ACC wants its miserable deal with ESPN that is locked in until 2036 renegotiated. The fastest way to get ESPN, Fox and any other network to the negotiating table is to first get the playoff expanded to 12 teams, which will all but assure their conferences will have at least one team in the playoff every year. Sure, an expanded playoff will be dominated by the SEC that has added Texas and Oklahoma but the SEC dominates without them now when it’s only four teams.

Once it is announced that the playoff has been expanded to 12 teams, Larry, Curley and Moe will have leverage that they don’t have now. They can say, “You want a slice or all of the playoff money pie? Then you better deal with us ESPN, Fox and whatever other network wants in on the playoff broadcasts. Treat us nice and we’ll be happy to throw some support behind your network.”

Maybe they think they’re hurting Greg Sankey and the SEC by acting like the juveniles they are, but Sankey is perfectly content to play the waiting game. After all, he’s the one who got the SEC the 10-year contract from ESPN that will expand once Texas and Oklahoma become full-fledged members. They are the ones who need help, not Sankey and certainly not the SEC.