Thoughts of the Day: September 9, 2021

A few thoughts to jump start your Thursday morning:

SATURDAY’S GAME IS CRITICAL, HERE’S WHY

When I think about the South Florida Bulls, who the Gators play in Tampa Saturday afternoon, I’m reminded of those old Johnny Carson monologues. Johnny would say something like “they were so bad” and Ed McMahon and the studio audience would immediately chime in with, “how bad were they?”

How bad are the Bulls? Well, they’re so bad that the Gators can probably play the worst game they’ve played in the Dan Mullen era at the University of Florida and still cover the 28.5-point spread, which seems awfully low. Despite what is almost certain to turn into a blowout early on, this is a critical game for the Gators for a variety of reasons but especially these three: (1) More cohesion in the defense; (2) get Emory Jones playing in a game the way he does in practice; and (3) more experience for Anthony Richardson, who will definitely need it in the event something were to happen to Emory either against USF or Alabama.

It’s important to point out that through three quarters against FAU, the defense was pitching a shutout and had given up only 173 yards (70 rushing, 103 passing). Todd Grantham played a lot of kids in the fourth quarter and FAU picked up 180 yards and two touchdowns. Grantham has to get the rotations he wants set and know who he can depend on before Big Bad Bama comes to town, so he needs a game that’s intense with everyone knowing their role and what to do when the call comes in from the sideline.

Emory Jones had this self-assessment of his play against FAU: “Just watching, I didn’t look very comfortable to myself, and I mean, I’m very comfortable every day in practice. I’ve been doing this for a couple of years, so just watching it, I didn’t feel like I looked really comfortable, like it was my first start.” Jones has to play better this week, especially in the passing game. He’s got to make better reads and has to get the ball down the field. You can’t beat Alabama throwing 2-inch passes.

Richardson had the better outing against FAU whether we’re talking his one series in the first half or the last 10 minutes when he made some highlight reel plays. Like Jones, however, he’s got to do a better job in the passing game. We know he can run like a deer, just like Emory, but he’s got to show that he can make good throws to open receivers. If something were to happen to EJ either Saturday or during the Alabama game, the last thing the Gators need is a quarterback who can’t make the defense respect the pass.

The Gators are going to win Saturday, we just don’t know by how much. The game is critical because if the Gators are going to stand a chance to beat Alabama, they have to show some real improvement against USF.

STATS THAT MATTER: WHERE THE GATORS RANK NATIONALLY/SEC Total offense (13/5): 553 yards per game, 6.83 yards per snap Rushing offense (1/1): 400 yards per game, 8.7 yards per carry Passing offense (106/11): 153 yards per game, 4.7 per attempt Sacks allowed (Tie 1/Tie 1): 0 sacks allowed Scoring offense (Tie 45/Tie 9): 35 points per game Total defense (64/10): 353 yards per game, 5.04 yards per snap Rushing defense (46/8): 92 yards per game, 2.49 per carry Passing defense (90/12): 261 yards per game, 7.9 per attempt Sacks (Tie 5/Tie 3): 6 sacks for -36 yards Scoring defense (Tie 35/8): 14 points per game

OVER, UNDER, AROUND AND THROUGH THE SEC Alabama (1-0): Ahead of Saturday’s game with D1AA Mercer, Nick Saban was questioning his team’s intensity. “The scoreboard affects us,” Saban said. “Who we’re playing affects us. The heat affects us. The media and what you guys write every day affects us, so, to me, we have to prove we can play and maintain intensity and do things the way we’re supposed to.”

Arkansas (1-0): HBC Sam Pittman wants the targeting rule re-examined. “It seems like the crime and the punishment don’t match,” Pittman said on the SEC Coaches Teleconference. In their season opening win over Rice, linebacker Grant Morgan was ejected for targeting in the first half and linebacker Bumper Pool was ejected for targeting in the second half. Pool will have to sit the first half of Saturday’s game with Texas.

Auburn (1-0): Quarterback guru Jordan Palmer, whose past clients include Josh Allen and Joe Burrow is predicting big things from Bo Nix this year. “From an arm-talent standpoint, he’s ready to rock,” Palmer said … Basketball: Allan Flanigan, who averaged 14.3 points and 5.5 rebounds last year, has undergone surgery on his Achilles tendon. He will miss a minimum of 12-14 weeks so he could be back in time for the SEC portion of Auburn’s schedule.

Georgia (1-0): Quarterback JT Daniels may miss Saturday’s game with UAB due to a core injury. He is currently listed day-to-day. If Daniels is unable to go, redshirt freshman Carson Beck will get the start.

Kentucky (1-0): Offensive coordinator Liam Coen says missed blocking assignments, among other things, contributed to UK running for only 145 yards against Louisiana-Monroe in the season opener. “We should’ve had a lot more rushing yards than we probably ended up with and those guys see that and they’ll fix that stuff,” Coen said Wednesday … Freshman corner Maxwell Hairston is not with the team due to personal reasons.

LSU (0-1): Paul Finebaum called out both Coach O and corner Daryl Stingley Jr. on his show Monday. Regarding Coach O, Finebaum said, “I thought somebody was telling us Friday that they were going to knock Alabama off or at least contend. Ed O opened his yap and suddenly pressure is building on the bayou.” Regarding Stingley, who had just two tackles, Finebaum said, “I think every LSU fan who’s a legitimate fan knows who the best player on that team is and just watch the end of the game [UCLA] and see what kind of effort he was giving.”

Mississippi State (1-0): Quarterback Will Rogers has signed an NIL deal with the Moe’s Original Barbecue chain which has locations in 14 states.

Missouri (1-0): Missouri leads the nation in sacks with nine for 68 yards in losses.

Ole Miss (1-0): HBC Lane Kiffin, who had to sit out the season opening win over Louisville due to COVID-19 protocols, will be on the sideline Saturday when the Rebels host D1AA Austin Peay in Oxford. On the SEC Coaches Teleconference, Kiffin said, “I have no symptoms. I’m great now. I will be back for the game so I’m excited about that.”

South Carolina (1-0): Defensive back R.J. Roderick, who missed the season opener due to a suspension, is expected to return to the South Carolina lineup this week.

Tennessee (1-0): Tennessee is still waiting to hear from the NCAA regarding the eligibility of junior college transfer linebacker Byron Young. “Hopefully we’ll have it here within the next 24-48 hours,” HBC Josh Heupel said on the SEC Coaches Teleconference.

Texas A&M (1-0): When talking about having a dual threat QB like redshirt freshman Haynes King, Jimbo Fisher said, “I’m a guy who believes you win from the pocket, your accuracy … and then you have to add your legs onto that. Having a guy who can do all those things is a blessing.”

Vanderbilt (0-1): Tight end Ben Bresnahan is out for Saturday’s game at Colorado State and is listed as week-to-week. Bresnahan suffered a lower leg injury in the loss to East Tennessee State last week.

GET READY FOR THE RIPPLE EFFECTS WHEN THE BIG 12 ANNOUNCES EXPANSION PLANS

Friday, the Big 12 is expected to announce it has accepted the applications to join the league from independent BYU and Cincinnati, UCF and Houston from the American Athletic Conference (AAC). That’s been in the news cycle for a week so it’s nothing new. What is new is the expected ripple effect from the Big 12’s moves to counter the exit of Texas and Oklahoma to the Southeastern Conference.

BYU can join the Big 12 immediately since it’s an independent. Sources tell Sports Illustrated and others that Cincinnati, UCF and Houston intend to begin competing in the Big 12 as early as 2023. All three AAC schools will have to pay a buyout to leave sooner than the 2024 season. So, where would they come up with the money?

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey says the SEC is perfectly content to wait until after the 2025 athletic year when Texas and Oklahoma can leave the Big 12 without an exit fee. To leave earlier would cost the two schools something in the neighborhood of $80 million. This is where ESPN figures to step in. It takes over the complete SEC media rights contract in 2024 unless it buys out one or both the remaining years of the CBS contract, which is entirely possible since CBS will be in negotiation to keep its NFL television contract and might need the extra cash to ensure it wins. The earlier Texas and Oklahoma are in the SEC, the more money ESPN will make, so it is entirely possible ESPN will both pay off CBS and the exit fees for Texas and Oklahoma. Maybe not for 2022, but 2023? Entirely possible.

Therefore, armed with the exit fees plus a likely media rights contract from ESPN, FOX or NBC, the Big 12 can assist Cincinnati, Houston and UCF with their buyouts. And, armed with the buyout money and perhaps some sort of media deal of its own, the AAC can go about its own expansion. AAC commissioner Mike Aresco made it perfectly clear Wednesday his league already has contingency plans to add new teams.

What this is going to do is hasten the implementation of an expanded College Football Playoff. The Big 12 will desperately need an expanded playoff to make up for the loss of media revenue from the departure of Texas and Oklahoma. With most projections calling for a tripling of the next CFP television contract to nearly $1.5 billion per year, the Big 12, as one of the autonomous Power Five conferences, would receive close to $200 million a year as its yearly cut.

As for all the bluster of this alliance from the Big Ten, Pac-12 and ACC, they are not going to stand in the way of an expanded playoff. Their leagues need the money too because (a) the SEC is expected to be distributing as much as $80 million per school and the expanded playoff is the only way leagues like the Pac-12 or ACC will have a chance to get anything more than their conference champ in.

ONE FINAL PITHY THOUGHT: Gavin Wimsatt of Owensboro, Kentucky, who was the No. 11 rated prep quarterback in the country, played in a high school football game last Friday. As of Monday he was enrolled in school at Rutgers, hoping he can get an NIL deal like Quinn Ewers got when he left Southlake Carroll High School in Texas to early enroll at Ohio State. Ewers has signed a $1.4 million NIL deal without ever having played a collegiate game. According to Ari Wasserman of The Athletic, Winsatt’s family asked Rutgers coach Greg Schiano, “Could we do that?” That’s going to happen more and more until a sufficient number of high school kids either bust as collegians or turn out to be mediocre. Not everyone can be a star.