Three SEC games to go and all hell is about to break loose

“One thing that makes it possible to be an optimist is if you have a contingency plan for when all hell breaks loose.” – Randy Pausch

Mr. Pausch was not talking about the final three games of the Southeastern Conference regular season, but he could have been. The race for the regular season title is certainly No. 1 Auburn’s to lose. Barring a disaster, Auburn will win the SEC regular season title while earning the top seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The next 12 teams in the SEC need contingency plans because in these final three games across the board, all hell is likely to break loose. Everyone except Auburn and bottom-feeders LSU and South Carolina should be sweating bullets. Right now, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm have NCAA Tournament bids going out to everyone except Georgia, LSU and South Carolina. Georgia (17-11, 5-10 SEC) has to be optimistic after its win over 3rd-ranked Florida back on Tuesday. The Bulldogs have three winnable games and a 20-win Georgia team is definitely going to be in the field.

There will be sighs of relief for the top four teams in the final regular season standings because they will get a double bye for the SEC Tournament in Nashville. A top four finish means you don’t play your first game until the Friday quarterfinals. Teams five through eight get a one-day break. They’re off until Thursday while teams nine through 16 slog it out to advance, knowing fully well that one or two wins in Nashville punches their March Madness dance card.

The team with the most to lose right now seems to be 3rd-ranked Florida (24-4, 11-4 SEC), which suffered a shocking and uncharacteristic loss to Georgia in Athens back on Saturday. The Gators are currently in third place, a game ahead of 5th-ranked Tennessee (23-5, 10-5 SEC) and 14th-ranked  Missouri (21-7, 10-5). If the Vols and Mizzou both go 3-0 the rest of the way and the Gators lose a game, tiebreakers factor in the top four seed equation. Florida split with the Vols, lost their only game with Missouri. An 0-3 finish and the Gators are almost certainly playing on Thursday.

The Gators can erase any doubts with a 3-0 record. At 14-4 the Gators would move to No. 2. If 6th-ranked Alabama (23-5, 12-3 SEC) loses two of its last three, entirely possible since the last three games are (at) Tennessee, Florida and (at) Auburn, and the Gators go 3-0, there could be a 3-team logjam to determine which teams get the No. 3 and No. 4 seeds.

And that’s just what’s at the top. Any team that fails to get to 9-9 in SEC play probably has a Wednesday date in Nashville. One of those teams, believe it or not, might be 17th-ranked Kentucky (19-9, 8-7 SEC). The Wildcats have two very losable games in their last three, so they could finish in a tie-break that would have them playing on Wednesday. The people who run the SEC Tournament are probably praying for that since Kentucky fans will assure a first day sellout, same thing on day two if the Cats were to win on Wednesday.

Imagine this scenario: Arkansas (17-11, 6-9 SEC) goes 3-0 and finishes in a tie with Kentucky for the No. 8 spot. Arkansas wins the tiebreaker because of its win over UK at Rupp Arena. Former Kentucky coach John Calipari gets Arkansas a first day bye and first year Kentucky coach Mark Pope plays on Wednesday.

File that under things that make you go hmmmm in a very juicy way.

In serious trouble are SEC newcomers Texas (16-12, 5-10 SEC) and Oklahoma (17-11, 4-11 SEC). Both of them might be thinking about now that life was much, much easier in the Big 12.

Here is a team-by-team look at the SEC with three regular season games remaining.

No. 6 Alabama (23-5, 12-3 SEC): The last three games are at No. 5 Tennessee, No. 3 Florida and at No. 1 Auburn. Win those three and Alabama is a mortal lock for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. A 1-2 finish or 0-3 could bump the Tide to the No. 2 in the big dance. Lose three and the Crimson Tide might miss out on the double bye in Nashville.

Arkansas (17-11, 6-9 SEC): The Hogs have a legitimate shot at 20 regular season wins and a 9-9 SEC record. Considering the injuries that have the Hogs currently playing with seven scholarship players, John Calipari might be SEC Coach of the Year if Arkansas finishes off with wins over (at) South Carolina, (at) Vanderbilt and Mississippi State.

No. 1 Auburn (26-2, 14-1 SEC): Auburn is one win away from no worse than a tie for the SEC regular season championship. Two out of the last three (at No. 17 Kentucky, at No. 12 Texas A&M, No. 6 Alabama) clinches the title outright. A 3-0 finish and you can pencil in Auburn as the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament.

No. 3 FLORIDA (24-4, 11-4 SEC): The Gators can earn their way back to a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they finish 3-0. The Gators face No. 12 Texas A&M Saturday in the O-Dome, travel to No. 6 Alabama and close out at home against Ole Miss. To get the double bye for the SEC Tournament, the Gators have to go 2-1 or better in those final three while hoping Tennessee and Missouri don’t run the table.

Georgia (17-11, 5-10 SEC): The Bulldogs shocking win over Florida probably gets them into the NCAA Tournament if they take care of business in the last three games – at Texas, at South Carolina and home against Vanderbilt. A win at Texas could very well send the Longhorns to the NIT. Of course, if Georgia loses two of the last three the Bulldogs might also be in the NIT. Again.

No. 17 Kentucky (19-9, 8-7 SEC): The Wildcats are currently seventh in the SEC standings, needing two wins in their final three regular season games (No. 1 Auburn, LSU and at No. 14 Missouri) to avoid playing on Wednesday at the SEC Tournament in Nashville. At 9-9 there is no guarantee of a top eight finish. Kentucky will be in the NCAA Tournament with a better seed than the Wildcats deserve because their basketball fans travel better than any fans in college sports. The NCAA will honor that.

LSU (14-14, 3-12 SEC): Any hopes the Tigers have of salvaging a dismal season with the NIT are fading fast. Essentially, it will take a 3-0 finish against (at) No. 24 Mississippi State, (at) No. 17 Kentucky and home against No. 12 Texas A&M.

No. 24 Mississippi State (19-9, 7-8 SEC): The Bulldogs are in the NCAA Tournament. Their biggest concern is getting off the Wednesday bubble for the SEC Tournament in Nashville. Currently, they’re ninth in the SEC standings which would put them playing the opening game against South Carolina. The last three are winnable however – home games with LSU and Texas and closing out on the road with Arkansas.

No. 14 Missouri (21-7, 10-5 SEC): Missouri could play its way into a top four finish in the SEC which would ensure the double bye. All the Tigers have to do is run the table with roadies at Vanderbilt and Oklahoma and home to finish the season against No. 17 Kentucky. The Tigers can run with anyone and they can win rock fight games. A 3-0 finish could vault them into a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Oklahoma (17-11, 4-11 SEC): Somehow the Sooners need to get to 19 wins or else their NCAA bubble will burst. They won’t get in the NCAA Tournament with four SEC wins and probably won’t with five, so they need to win two of the last three – at Ole Miss, No. 14 Missouri and Texas.

Ole Miss (19-9, 8-7 SEC): The Rebels have gone in the tank, losing their last three games. They will make the NCAA Tournament, but if they wish to avoid playing on Wednesday at the SEC Tournament they really need to win two of the last three – Oklahoma, No. 5 Tennessee and at No. 3 Florida.

South Carolina (11-17, 1-14 SEC): The Gamecocks can only play for pride by throwing a wrench into someone else’s tournament hopes. The last three are homers with Arkansas and Georgia and a roadie to close it out at No. 5 Tennessee.

No. 5 Tennessee (23-5, 10-5 SEC): The Vols host Alabama Saturday. Win that one and the next two should (at Ole Miss, South Carolina) should go in the win column. At 13-5 Tennessee will get the double bye in the SEC Tournament and put the Vols in prime position to sneak in as a No. 1 on Selection Sunday.

Texas (16-12, 5-10 SEC): The loss to Arkansas hurt badly, but the Longhorns are capable of finishing the season on a 3-0 run – Georgia, at No. 24 Mississippi State and Oklahoma. At the very least, they need to go 2-1 the rest of the way and hope for some mercy from the selection committee. At 3-0 they’ll get in.   

No. 12 Texas A&M (20-8, 9-6 SEC): The Aggies have lost three in a row and their next two games are at No. 3 Florida and home against No. 1 Auburn. The final game is at LSU, which should get them at least to 10 SEC wins and a top eight finish, which avoids playing on Wednesday. The Aggies may be wounded, but they are indeed dangerous.  

Vanderbilt (19-9, 7-8 SEC):

Saturday’s games

No. 12 Texas A&M (20-8, 9-6 SEC) at No. 3 FLORIDA (24-4, 11-4 SEC)

No. 1 Auburn (26-2, 14-1 SEC) at No. 17 Kentucky (19-9, 8-7 SEC)

No. 6 Alabama (23-5, 12-3 SEC) at No. 6 Tennessee (23-5, 10-5 SEC)

No. 14 Missouri (21-7, 10-5 SEC) at Vanderbilt (19-9, 7-8 SEC)

LSU (14-14, 3-12 SEC) at No. 24 Mississippi State (19-9, 7-8 SEC)

Oklahoma (17-11, 4-11 SEC) at Ole Miss (19-9, 8-7 SEC)

Georgia (17-11, 5-10 SEC) at Texas (16-12, 5-10 SEC)

Arkansas (17-11, 6-9 SEC) at South Carolina (11-17, 1-14 SEC)

SEC Standings

1. Auburn 14-1; 2. Alabama 12-3; 3. FLORIDA 11-4; 4. (TIE) Missouri 10-5 and Tennessee 10-5; 6. Texas A&M 9-6; 7. (TIE) Kentucky 8-7 and Ole Miss 8-7; 9. (TIE) Mississippi State 7-8 and Vanderbilt 7-8; 11. Arkansas 6-9; 12. (TIE) Georgia 5-10 and Texas 5-10; 14. Oklahoma 4-11; 15. LSU 3-12; 16. South Carolina 1-14

SEC Tournament brackets

Wednesday, March 12

No. 16 vs. No. 9

No. 13 vs. No. 12

No. 15 vs. No. 10

No. 14 vs. No. 11

Thursday, March 13

Winner 16-9 vs. No. 8

Winner 13-12 vs. No. 5

Winner 15-10 vs. No. 7

Winner 14-11 vs. No. 6

Friday quarterfinals, March 14

Winner game 1 Thursday vs. No. 1

Winner game 2 Thursday vs. No. 4

Winner game 3 Thursday vs. No. 2

Winner game 4 Thursday vs. No. 4

Saturday semifinals, March 15

Friday game 1 vs. Friday game 2

Friday game 3 vs. Friday game 4