To meet high expectations, Sumrall needs more efficiency from his offense

There is a bit of that old Al Davis – “Just win, baby!” – swagger in Jon Sumrall, whose four teams at two different whistlestops prior to Florida (Troy and Tulane) produced 43 wins, four trips to conference championship games, three conference championships (2 Sun Belt, 1 American) and one trip to the College Football Playoff (Tulane 2025). Just because Florida is a step up in competition, Sumrall has the same championship expectations that he had coaching in the Sun Belt and American conferences.

In Tampa at SEC Media Days, Sumrall refused to set a minimally acceptable win total for the Gators. He said he expects to win every game. For that to happen he has to inject confidence and higher expectations for the 2026 Gators, who are coming off their fourth losing season in five years. An eight win season would be Sumrall's worst record since becoming a head coach, but eight wins doubles last season and sets the tone for future UF teams.

Offensive efficiency will go a long way toward determining the fate of the Gators this season. Sumrall has to turn around an offense that ranked near the bottom third of the nation in six of the most important offensive categories. To win at least eight games in Sumrall Season No. 1, the Gators need to make quantum leaps in all seven of these offensive categories that factor heavily in winning.

To turn things around, Sumrall snaked Buster Faulkner off the Georgia Tech staff to coordinate the offense. Faulkner was Stetson Bennett’s quarterback coach when Georgia won back-to-back national championships (2021-22). The last three years at Georgia Tech, Faulkner’s offenses have been balanced, productive and at the same time explosive. Can he do the same thing at Florida, which hasn’t won more than eight games in a season since 2019?

Here is a look at the seven important offensive categories and how the Gators performed in contrast to Sumrall at Tulane and Faulkner at Georgia Tech. Further contrast is provided by the top three playoff teams a season ago.

TOTAL OFFENSE

Georgia Tech (9-4): 460 yards per game (No. 11 nationally/6.98 yards per play (No. 4 nationally)

Tulane (11-3): 411.4 yards per game (No. 38 nationally)/6.13 yards per play (No. 30 nationally)

Florida (4-8): 341.3 yards per game (No. 104 nationally)/5.4 yards per play (No. 91 nationally)

Playoff teams top three

Ole Miss (13-2): 489.7 yards per game (No. 2 nationally)/ 6.68 yards per play (No. 15 nationally)

James Madison (12-2): 452.6 yards per game (No. 15 nationally)/6.37 yards per play (No. 22 nationally)

Oregon (13-2): 452.2 yards per game (No. 16 nationally)/6.87 yards per play (No. 9 nationally)

What Florida has to do: During the Mullen years, the Gators were always among the national leaders in yards per play. The Gators had a top 50 offense in Billy Napier’s first two seasons, mostly between the 20s. The last two seasons the Gators were 66^th and then 104^th. Playcalling was predictable and that is being kind. An average offense produces between 380-400 yards per game and somewhere between 5.75 and 6.0 yards per play. The Tulane offense the last two years went for more than 400 yards and better than 6.1 per play. Buster Faulkner’s Georgia Tech offenses at Georgia Tech were balanced and productive, always good for at least 420 yards and more than 6.1 yards per play.  

For the Gators to win eight or more games this season, the offensive production needs to be 420 or more yards and at least 6.1 per play.

THE RUNNING GAME

Georgia Tech (9-4): 197.46 per game (No. 13 nationally)/5.54 per carry (No. 8 nationally)

Tulane (11-3): 166.42 per game (No. 57 nationally)/4.52 per carry (No. 56 nationally)

Florida (4-8): 136.75 per game (No. 91 nationally)/4.27 per carry (No. 75 nationally)

Playoff teams top three

Indiana (16-0): 212.88 per game (No. 12 nationally)/5.17 per carry (No. 19 nationally)

Oregon (13-2): 198.6 per game (No. 20 nationally)/5.41 per carry (No. 13 nationally)

Texas A&M (11-2): 184.69 (No. 30 nationally)/4.82 per carry (No. 32 nationally)

What Florida has to do: Good teams typically average between 160-180 yards per game and more than 5.0 yards per carry. The Gators averaged more than 200 yards in Napier’s first year, but that was with two NFL-bound running backs (Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne). The running game has been predictable and rarely explosive the last two seasons even with Jadan Baugh getting the most carries. Baugh is back for a third season and he should thrive in Buster Faulkner’s scheme, which spreads the field to create running lanes and makes defenses account for the quarterback as a runner on every snap. Because he is also a threat as a receiver, Baugh should have an All-America type year. He is backed up by Evan Pryor and London Montgomery, transfers who were top 10 recruits out of high school.

For the Gators to win eight or more games this year, the running game needs to average somewhere in the 5.3-5.5-yards per carry range and the quarterback has to be enough of a threat to take off that it keeps at least one of the linebackers occupied. If Baugh can average 85 yards per game he will eclipse 1,000 yards to become the first back in Florida history to record back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons.

THE PASSING GAME

Georgia Tech (9-4): 262.5 yards per game (No. 31 nationally)/8.7 yards per attempt (No. 13 nationally)

Tulane (11-3): 245.1 yards per game (No. 50 nationally)/8.1 yards per attempt (No. 30 nationally)

Florida (4-8): 204.6 yards per game (No. 93 nationally)/6.6 yards per attempt (No. 97 nationally)

Playoff teams top three

Ole Miss (13-2): 313 yards per game (No. 3 nationally)/9.0 yards per attempt (No. 9 nationally)

Ohio State (12-2): 268.2 yards per game (No. 23 nationally)/9.2 yards per attempt (No. 7 nationally)

Alabama (11-4): 263.5 yards per game (No. 29 nationally)/7.6 yards per attempt (No. 50 nationally)

What Florida has to do: First and foremost the Gators have to improve the yards per pass attempt by at least a yard. Anything less than 7.5 per attempt is quite pedestrian. Both Sumrall and Faulkner have relied on a lot of play action and balancing things with the run threat to open the passing lanes. Far from ground and pound, which was the perception at Georgia Tech, Faulkner had a passing game that averaged 8.7 yards per attempt which was without the kind of receiving talent he has at his disposal this year. The foursome of Vernell Brown III, Dallas Wilson, Eric Singleton Jr. and Micah Mays have much more speed and explosiveness than the crew he had at Georgia Tech. Operating with a brand new QB and new wide receivers, Georgia Tech averaged 8.1 yards per attempt last year.

Whether it’s Aaron Philo or Tramell Jones Jr. at quarterback, it is imperative for the Gators to average at least 8.0 per pass attempt to keep the safeties from packing the box to stuff the running game.

SACKS ALLOWED

Georgia Tech (9-4): 9 for -61 yards (No. 3 nationally)

Tulane (11-3): 12 for -80 yards (No. 7 nationally)

Florida (4-8):  20 for -106 yards (No. 39 nationally)

Playoff teams top three

Ohio State (12-2): 16 for -110 yards (No. 13 nationally)

Ole Miss (13-2): 19 for -98 yards (No. 27 nationally)

Texas A&M (11-2): 19 for -111 yards (No. 27 nationally)

What Florida has to do: The Gators emphasized getting the ball out of DJ Lagway’s hands quickly last year so the offensive line’s pass protection looks better on paper than it really was. When it was a straight dropback, Lagway was a sitting duck, in part because he was slowed by hamstring issues. Both Philo and Jones are more mobile than Lagway or Graham Mertz ever were. New OL coach Phil Trautwein’s Penn State O-lines were very consistent. Trautwein brings an element of toughness to the O-line that has been missing for years.

For the Gators to win eight or more games, the O-line has to keep the opponents’ sack total to 16 or fewer.

THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS

Georgia Tech (9-4): 71-154, 46.1 percent (No. 23 nationally)

Tulane (11-3): 77-183, 42.08 percent (No. 43 nationally)

Florida (4-8): 52-152, 34.21 percent (No. 116 nationally)

Playoff teams top three

Indiana (16-0): 113-200, 56.5 percent (No. 1 nationally)

Ohio State (12-2): 81-152, 53.29 percent (No. 2 nationally)

Texas Tech (12-2): 109-220, 49.55 percent (No. 12 nationally)

What Florida has to do: The Gators have been very poor converting third downs for five years running. Last year they were one of the worst in the country. Anything less than 40 percent usually means an ineffective offense. Florida hasn’t converted 40 percent since Napier’s first year on the job. Faulkner’s Georgia Tech offenses have been more than 46 percent two of the last three seasons. Sumrall’s 2024 Tulane team converted 50.29 percent on third down.

First and foremost, the Gators have to do well enough on first and second downs that it’s third and short most of the time. A year ago the Gators seemed to always be third and long. To win eight or more games, the Gators need to convert 45 percent or better.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS (10+ yards)

Georgia Tech (9-4): 195 (No. 36 nationally)

Tulane (11-3): 220 (No. 8 nationally)

Florida (4-8): 148 (No. 101 nationally)

Playoff teams top three

Ole Miss (13-2): 252 (No. 2 nationally)

Indiana(16-0): 249 (No. 3 nationally)

Miami (13-3): 227 (No. 5 nationally)

What Florida has to do: Of Florida’s 148 explosive plays last season, only 26 went for at least 30 yards, which is indicative of a grind it out type of offense. The Gators had 79 plays in the 10-19-yard range and 43 that went for 20-29 yards. Contrast that to Ole Miss, which had 90 plays between 20 and 29 yards and another 50 between 30 and 40 yards. Florida won four games. Ole Miss won 13.  Sumrall’s Tulane team had 220 explosive plays and Georgia Tech had 195. Sumrall’s first team (Troy, 2022) had 179 explosive plays, the second 219 and his first Tulane team 219. Georgia Tech had practically the same number of explosive plays all three years Faulkner was the OC.

Playoff teams tend to make at least 190 plays of 10 or more yards yearly. Since 2000, every national championship team had at least 200 plays that went for at least 10 yards. For the Gators in the upcoming season, it is imperative to get running backs to the second level and receivers hitting seams for those 17-yard darts that keep the safeties backed off the line. If the Gators make 200 or more explosive plays they’re going to win at least eight games.  

RED ZONE TOUCHDOWNS

Georgia Tech (9-4): 32 (No. 47 nationally)

Tulane (11-3): 31 (No. 54 nationally)

Florida (4-8): 23 (No. 95 nationally)

Playoff teams top three

Indiana (16-0): 56 (No. 2 nationally)

Ole Miss (13-2): 49 (No. 3 nationally)

Ohio State (13-2): 46 (No. 5 nationally)

What Florida has to do: The Gators struggled to score in 2025 when they got into the red zone only 36 times in 12 games. They were efficient, converting 23 touchdowns and 13 field goals, but scoring opportunities were rare. The Gators scored only six touchdowns from outside the red zone. Georgia Tech made it to the red zone 55 times, scoring 32 touchdowns (17 field goals) while Tulane scored 31 TDs and kicked 19 field goals in 56 red zone trips.

Since 2000, every national championship team has gotten to the red zone regularly, most of the time punching it in for a TD. Indiana ran the table a year ago, getting to the red zone 77 times (56 touchdowns, 15 field goals), an average of nearly five red zone trips per game. In the SEC, Ole Miss also got there 77 times (more than five per game; 49 touchdowns, 17 field goals). For the Gators to double from four wins to eight, they’ve got to get into the red zone more often and convert touchdowns.